NWS Future Concept of Operations

National HIC Meeting

July 10, 2006

Outline

• Background

• Team Process, Progress, and Timeline

• Role of Hydrology

• Discussion

CONOPS Documents

• NOAA’s NWS FOCUS on the Future– CONOPS report (12/15/2005):

www.weather.gov/com/digitalera/index.htm

• If you haven’t read it, you should.

• Follow-on team formed in February ’06 to prototype the CONOPS recommendation.

CONOPS: The Case for Change

1. To provide the best service possible, we must adapt.

2. We must be more efficient with our resources.

3. We must capitalize on future opportunities.

4. We need to posture ourselves for budget uncertainties.

CONOPS Philosophy Principles

Information and Services

Technology, Data, and Tools

People

Customers and Partners

8. We will ensure that all national centers and field offices have the tools and technology necessary to efficiently and effectively produce the digital environmental information repository (one stop shopping portal) 9. We will routinely verify and quality assure the digital environmental information we produce and make these verification data readily available to

forecasters and managers to ensure resources are used most efficiently and effectively. The verification system should be tailored to include the information that lets us make resource decisions about services for high-impact events. 10. We will

efficiently and fully leverage the investment in numerical forecast guidance and ensure that this guidance is used by field offices. 11. We will facilitate the rapid transfer of new science and quality assured technology into operations . 12. When

designing systems, adaptability of technology is a criteria that is as important as initial cost

1. We will ensure weather sensitive decision makers have ready

Market

4. The degree of consistency and accuracy of our information corresponds to the value they provide. 5. We will provide information that includes estimates of uncertainty, and is widely recognized as credible and reliable. 6. Enable reliable access to

information and services in formats which meet customer needs. 7. To the greatest extent that resources permit, we will measure the value of the services we provide in support of high-impact events. We acknowledge that not all aspects of the

value of high impact services are amenable to objective measurement.

Organizational Design

2. We believe that proximity to our customers and partners is key to achieving and maintaining the quality of our information and services. 3. The credibility of the NWS is

a primary asset that will be maintained at all costs.

access to high value environmental information.

13. We recognize the unique needs of the individual employee. 14. We concentrate the efforts of our people where their expertise and effort allows them to add value. 15. We will dedicate resources to leadership training and succession planning.

16. Operating units should be resourced according to mission requirements. 17. Maintain a distributed concept of services where local offices are responsible for making resource decisions. 18. Regardless of where the environmental information is

produced, accountability resides with the part of the organization from which the information is delivered. 19. Operating units are clustered by partnership opportunities, climatology, and ecosystems. 20. National and regional service program leads should be

located at operating units in areas where the program is active

CONOPS Future State: 2015

ServicesInformation

Technology, Data, and Tools

People

Customers Partners

(1) Enhanced user decision support especially for high impact events (2) Provider of a wide spectrum of improved

environmental information services designed for societal needs (3) Producer of seamless, high quality, digital information on

demand

(1) Effective and adaptable use of emerging science and technology, including timely transition and quality assurance (2) Communications allows full transfer of information to wherever it is needed in the agency (3) Calibrated, reliable, and routinely

verified national digital environmental information repository (4) An interface that allows the decision maker to quickly personalize information from a national digital environmental information repository

High quality of work life: (1) Our people’s efforts are concentrated where their expertise allows them to demonstrably add value (2) More flexible work schedules (3) Appropriate and targeted training (4) Effective leadership at all levels

Expanded support to weather sensitive decision makers,

including those in emergency management, public health, aerospace,

aviation, and water resources.

Market

(1) Local, regional, national and international decision makers, including other government agencies

(1) Clearly explained and leveraged partnerships across the weather enterprise that benefit both parties (2) We partner with other NOAA elements in a one-NOAA context

(1) Ecosystem information (2) Probabilistic forecasts (3) Sensible weather forecasts and warnings (4) Environmental

forecasts to aid in the protection of the nation’s natural resources (5) High resolution information for high impact

events

(1) Our premier reason for being is to provide information to decision makers who take action to protect lives and property (2) We are the recognized source of unbiased, scientifically valid, quality assured environmental information (3) We are the primary

source of weather information for the government.

Identity

Clustered Peer VisionAn Extension of the Ops Philosophy

- focuses NWS resources on high-impact events

- while providing routine services

- in a highly collaborative process,

- optimizing modern science and technology

- composed of functionally staffed field offices

- at current facilities (with modifications).

An effective field structure for NOAA’s National Weather Service consisting of a highly trained workforce, which...

Key Operational Shifts

Phenomenon Based Forecasts

Product Based Services

Coordination

Technology Tied

National Weather Service

Reactive Evolution

Static Resource Allocation

Weather-centric

Impact Based Forecasts

Decision Support Information

Collaboration

Technology Enabled

Full Partnering Weather Enterprise

Proactive continuous Improvement

Dynamic Resource Allocation

Earth System Science

From To

Key Cultural Shifts

Running an Operation

“My Forecast”

“My Office”

Consistency vs. Accuracy

“My weather is harder than yours”

“Only I can forecast for my area”

Cranking out the work

Quantity of work

Trusted individual technology

Leading Change

“Our Forecast”

“Our NWS”

Consistency and Accuracy

“I value your climate, too”

“I trust you to make the best decisions for our cluster”Knowing where and when to add value

Quality of work

Shared, integrated technology

From To

Clustered Peers Concept Basic Elements

1. National Centers

2. Mission-Staffed (Tailored) Peer Forecast Offices

3. Cluster Support Offices

Note: All 122 forecast offices issue forecasts and warnings, QA data, maintain equipment, conduct outreach and science infusion

Team Progress

Febru

ary

April

May

Mar

ch

June

July

Augus

t

RecommendClusterCriteria

RecommendPrototypeClusters

ProvideCluster

PrototypePlan*

StartOnline Testing

Initiate OSIP

InitiateTeam

ActivitiesSolicitInput

2006

February 28 May 2

June 13

March 30

Septe

mbe

r

May 1

Run Lab

August 1

August 14

September 11

Prototype Cluster CriteriaAs presented at the May 2 Board VTC

Primary Considerations: Common Forecast Challenges

Physiographic Boundaries

Involvement by all 4 CONUS regions

End-state cluster configuration dependent on prototype findings

Current AWIPS Architecture Restriction

~100,000 grid points

Other Considerations: Partnership opportunities, Transportation, Economy, Population, Team work, Service Assistance

Additional Prototype Criteria

In late May, the Team decided that: Prototype cluster areas can approach 120,000 grid points

Prototype cluster areas must include at least 4 WFOs

Multi-regional participation within clusters is important

The clusters need to cover a diversity of forecast challenges:

• Hurricane

• Tornado

• Marine

• Flood

• Winter weather

• Fire Weather

• Mountainous Terrain

• Water Management

Recommended Prototype Clusters

“Pacific Northwest”

“Great Plains”

“Great Lakes”

“Southeast Coast”

Why Four Prototype Clusters?

• Address all high impact forecast challenges

• Involve all CONUS Regions

• Provide opportunities for NOAA partnerships

• Engage a broad spectrum of field offices in refining the Clustered Peer approach

• Provide opportunity to accelerate NWS culture change

• Lay the foundation for nationwide implementation

Recommended Prototype Cluster A

Important Goal: Evaluate Service Assistance between Coastal and Inland WFOs

• Marine

• Winter Weather

“Pacific Northwest”

Seattle, Spokane, Portland, Pendleton

Forecast Challenges

• Fire weather

• Mountainous Terrain

• Flood/Water Management

Strong Partnerships

• NOAA (NOS, NORR, PMEL, MAO, OAR)

• Universities (UW, OSU)

Common RFC

Cluster Support (OPC, HPC, SPC, CPC, AWC, NWRFC, CWSU)

Important Goal: Evaluate Frequent Occurrence of High Impact Weather

“Southern Plains”

Amarillo, Lubbock, Norman, Tulsa, Wichita, Dodge City

Forecast Challenges

• Severe Weather

• Flash Flood

• Drought

Partnerships

• NOAA (NSSL)

• University (OU)

Multiple Regions

Multiple RFCs

Cluster Support (SPC, HPC, CPC, AWC, ABRFC, WGRFC, SWPL)

Recommended Prototype Cluster B

• Flood

• Severe Weather

Important Goal: Evaluate Service Benefits to Single Ecosystem

“Great Lakes”

Detroit, Cleveland, N. Indiana, Chicago, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Gaylord, Grand Rapids

Common Ecosystem

Forecast Challenges

• Marine

• Winter Weather

Strong Partnerships

• NOAA (GLERL, NOS)

• Lake Carriers Association

• Universities (UM, UW)

Multiple Regions

Multiple RFCs

Cluster Support (OPC, SPC, HPC, CPC, AWC, NCRFC, OHRFC, CWSUs)

Recommended Prototype Cluster C

• Flood

• Severe Weather

Important Goal: Evaluate Service Assistance in High-Impact Tropical Environment

“Southeast Coast”

Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Charleston, Columbia, Wilmington, Greer, Atlanta

Forecast Challenges

• Hurricane

• Fire Weather

• Water Management

Strong Partnerships

• NOAA (CSC, NCDC, NOS, NMFS)

• University (FSU, GTU)

Multiple Regions

Common RFC

Cluster Support (HPC, OPC, AWC, TPC, CPC, SPC, CWSUs, SERFC, SERCC)

Recommended Prototype Cluster D

Key Elements of Prototype Testing

• Expanded domain for GFE

• Collaboration tools

• Resource allocation tools

• Assessment criteria and metrics

• A plan!

Next Steps

Laboratory (CRH – GSD)

• Laboratory preparations – June-July

• Conduct during August – October

• Forecaster involvement September-October

• Report completed early November 2007

Prototype Plan

• Next CONOPS deliverable – September 2006 (?)

• Deployment and roll-out details

• Basis for Impact and Implementation discussions

Prototype Activity

• Begins January-March 2007

Concurrent Activities

• OSIP • IT requirements• Assessment and evaluation• Coordination w/ other teams

CONOPS: Role of Hydrology

• Hydrologic service is a core function of the NWS

• CONOPS will allow WFOs to focus additional resources on hydrologic service during high impact events

• CONOPS will allow WFOs an opportunity to expand hydrologic service outreach and hydrologic training (internal and external)

• Role of RFCs (cluster support office) needs to be developed during prototype testing

– RFCs heavily engaged in all 4 prototypes

• CONOPS may provide an opportunity to implement the RFC Service Coordination Hydrologist position

Discussion…

• Questions?

• Input from HICs, others?

• Conduits for information and experience gained during prototypes?