NYMEX Crude Down Move - Fundamental or Technical - A Research 24-Apr-2015 I would like to share my view on Crude down fall from 107.67$ to 42.42$. Often there is a debate on why a Commodity /Stock/Currency moves up or moves down. It moves based on Fundamental News or it is technically weak/strong. Fundamental Supporters, will say it is because of fundamental news. Technical Supporters, will say it is because of technical. In my perspective both are important, technical analysis works best based on fundamental news. I am supporter of technical analysis and which is fueled by fundamental news.
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NYMEX Crude Down Move - Fundamental or Technical - A Research 24-Apr-2015 I would like to share my view on Crude down fall from 107.67$ to 42.42$. Often there is a debate on why a Commodity /Stock/Currency moves up or moves down. It moves based on Fundamental News or it is technically weak/strong. Fundamental Supporters, will say it is because of fundamental news. Technical Supporters, will say it is because of technical. In my perspective both are important, technical analysis works best based on fundamental news. I am supporter of technical analysis and which is fueled by fundamental news.
I started my analysis based on Elliott Wave from late 2013. I was highly bullish and expected up move and started projecting my targets for crude on the upside.
29-June-2014 Positional Upmove if 105 holds support: If crude supported by 105, upside targets are: 107.5-107.3, 108-108.3, 108.5-108.7, 109-109.3, 109.5-109.7, 110.3-110.6, 112-112.3, 112.5-112.7, 113.7-113.9.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/06/nymex-crude-view-29-june-2014.html My Positional View changed once, crude broken it’s base support of 97$, and I became bearish. Here below, I have given my charts and views which was given in my blog, chronologically.
01-Aug-2014 CMP 97.83 As Crude broken all its supports (99.7, 98.5, 97Now I am fully bearish with Crude. Based on My chart, I expect 96.2, 92, 88, 85, 81 Long Term Positional.
15-Sep-2014 If crude restricted by 93.7, 96, I expect more fall in Crude. Sell on rise is the strategy with SL 93.75 for targets: [[90.5-90.4-90.3]], 89.75, 88.5, [[87.5]], 86.8.
01-Nov-2014 CMP 80.71 Based on my Monthly/Weekly chart, If crude resisted by 114.82, 112.21, I expect minimum 75, 72.5. Other targets: 75.25-74.95, 72.75-72.35, 66-65.65, 63.3-63.05, 60-59.75, 57.5-57.15, 50-50.45, 48.25-47.9. HIGH LEVEL
01-Dec-2014 Crude is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11, 58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.
News that supported up move and down move of Crude: Bearish News Bullish News 22.06.2014 U.S. oil futures turn lower ahead of API supply report By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014 Crude dips on U.S. supply uncertainty By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014 NYMEX crude oil prices dip in Asia after API data shows mild stocks drop By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014 U.S. oil futures decline ahead of weekly supply data By Investing.com - Jul 23, 2014 24.07.2014 Crude oil futures decline despite upbeat China PMI data By Investing.com - Jul 24, 2014 WTI oil futures modestly lower after mixed U.S. data By Investing.com - Jul 24, 2014 25.07.2014 Crude oil edges lower, U.S. home sales still weigh By Investing.com - Jul 25, 2014 Crude futures edge lower in choppy trading, U.S. data support By Investing.com - Jul 25, 2014 30.09.2014 U.S. oil hits session low after disappointing U.S. confidence data By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014 Crude hammered lower as quarter ends amid major supply concerns By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014 Oil Prices Tumble On High Dollar By International Business Times - Sep 30, 2014 NYMEX crude falls in early Asia despite API data mild drop in supplies By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014 24.11.2014 Crude oil futures slump with all eyes on OPEC meeting By Investing.com - Nov 24, 2014 NYMEX crude edges lower in Asia with OPEC meeting in focus By Investing.com - Nov 24, 2014 01.12-2014 Oil futures extend plunge to lowest since 2009 on OPEC inaction By Investing.com - Dec 01, 2014 04.12.2014 Oil futures tumble to session lows on Saudi price cut By Investing.com - Dec 04, 2014 Crude drops as Saudi Arabia trims export prices By Investing.com - Dec 04, 2014
16.07.2014 Crude oil rebounds after upbeat China GDP data, U.S. supply data ahead By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014 WTI oil futures extend gains after bullish U.S. supply report By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014 Crude shoots up as U.S. stockpiles take a dive By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014 NYMEX crude oil carries prices gains into Asia after bullish stocks data By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014 23.09.2014 Crude oil futures edge higher on upbeat Chinese data By Investing.com - Sep 23, 2014 16.10.2014 NYMEX crude oil gains in early Asia on rebound off ample U.S. supplies By Investing.com - Oct 16, 2014 17.10.2014 Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply data still weighs By Investing.com - Oct 17, 2014 01.12.2014 Oil futures erase losses to trade up 2% on weaker dollar By Investing.com - Dec 01, 2014 17.12.2014 Oil surges in about-face as some bet sub-$60 Brent won't last By Reuters - Dec 17, 2014 14.01.2015 Oil surges 5 percent on options expiry; bounce seen fleeting By Reuters - Jan 14, 2015 02.02.2014 Oil up in skittish trade; stocks, refinery strike limit gains By Reuters - Feb 02, 2015 03.02.2015 Oil jumps as dollar plunges, up nearly 20 percent in four days By Reuters - Feb 03, 2015 17.02.2015 Oil futures extend gains on bullish momentum By Investing.com - Feb 17, 2015 25.03.2015 NYMEX crude gains in Asia as API data shows drop in distillate, gasoline
14.12.2015 NYMEX crude falls in Asia, weekend OPEC comments brushed off By Investing.com - Dec 14, 2014 15.12.2015 Oil hits five-year low before rallying above $62 By Reuters - Dec 15, 2014 02.01.2015 Oil declines in thin, volatile trading By Reuters - Jan 02, 2015 14.01.2015 Oil trades near 6-year low amid global growth concerns By Investing.com - Jan 14, 2015 30.01.2015 Oil rises, but set for record run of monthly falls By Reuters - Jan 30, 2015 Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply glut worries still weigh By Investing.com - Jan 30, 2015 02.02.2015 Crude oil futures drop 3% as global growth concerns weigh By Investing.com - Feb 02, 2015 Crude oil turns lower in choppy trade after ISM disappoints By Investing.com - Feb 02, 2015 17.02.2015 Crude oil futures erase gains to trade down 3% in choppy trade By Investing.com - Feb 17, 2015 18.02.2015 Oil futures decline amid profit-taking ahead of U.S. supply report By Investing.com - Feb 18, 2015 Cheaper crude oil subdues U.S. producer inflation; housing starts fall By Reuters - Feb 18, 2015 Oil's losses deepen; WTI drops as much as 3% ahead of API data By Investing.com - Feb 18, 2015 10.03.2015 Brent oil futures fall below $58 as dollar hits 11-year high By Investing.com - Mar 10, 2015 Dollar rally sinks oil; Brent down more than U.S. crude By Reuters - Mar 10, 2015 Crude oil prices fall sharply, as U.S. Dollar reaches 12-year high By Investing.com - Mar 10, 2015
By Investing.com - Mar 24, 2015 15.04.2015 NYMEX crude up in Asia after China Q1 data flurry, GDP supports By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015 WTI oil futures rally above $54 ahead of weekly inventory data By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015 WTI oil futures rally to 4-month high after bullish supply data By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015 22.04.2015 NYMEX crude gains in early Asia as investors watch Yemen fighting By Investing.com - Apr 22, 2015
23.02.2015 NYMEX crude falls in early Asia with focus on heavy supplies By Investing.com - Apr 23, 2015 23.02.2015 Oil futures slip lower on rising U.S. stockpiles By Investing.com - Apr 23, 2015
As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 and I expect to see minimum of 58.63. Crude almost done this target made high of 58.39 on Thursday (23-Apr-2015). Still I expect to see another up move before a big fall, which will be wave 5 as per my analysis minimum targeting 45/43/38$. For detailed analysis and updates you can check http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in, http://marketreserachanalysis.blogspot.in
Conclusion – Fundamental or Technical? In Market research, both are essential, and must go together to achieve the target. Technical analyst can give bigger targets but, these targets can only be reached if fundamental news supports. Else, technical analysis will fail. Fundamental news, can give good move, but where the move will end? Only technical analysis can give the targets, where one can safely book the profits. Technical Analysis gives targets, but Fundamental News drives the market to reach the target.
But, sometimes, Technical wins over fundamental and fundamental wins over technical.
