NYMTC’s NEWREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
(through Federal Fiscal Year 2045)
East End Planning Conference September 20, 2017
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A “metropolitan planning organization” for New York City, Long Island & the Lower Hudson Valley
A regional council of governments consisting of nine voting & seven advisory members
An organization required by Federal legislation which authorizes funding for transportation
An organization responsible for the mandated metropolitan transportation planning process
WHAT IS NYMTC?2
MEMBERSHIP
ADVISORY MEMBERS: New Jersey Transit, North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, Federal Transit Administration, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NYS Department of Environmental Conservation
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PLANNING AREA
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Congress (authorizes &
appropriates $$)
NYS
Region (MPO)
Project sponsor
NYS Legislature (appropriates $$)
Project sponsor
Local county, municipality &
public authority budgets
Project sponsor
Major Elements of Transportation Funding
Programs administered by the Federal Highway Administration
• National Highway Performance Program (NHPP)
• National Highway Freight Program
• Surface Transportation Block Grant Program (STBGP)• Transportation Alternatives
Program (STBGP set aside)
• Congestion Mitigation-Air Quality Program (CMAQ)
• Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)
• Railway-Highway Crossings
• Ferry Boat & Terminal Facilities
Programs administered by the Federal Transit Administration
• Sections 5307/5340 Urbanized Area Formula
• Section 5309 Fixed Guideway Capital Investment
• Section 5310 Enhanced Mobility of Seniors and People with Disabilities
• Section 5337 State-of-Good Repair
• Section 5339 Bus and Bus Facilities
Federal Formula Funding Programs
REQUIREDMETROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS
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WHAT IS THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN?
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The basis for federal transportation funding in the
NYMTC planning area
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A blueprint that helps guide federal investments in the
planning area
NYMTC members’ shared strategic
vision for the planning area
WHY A NEW PLAN? Federal requirement for a new Plan
every 4 years
New information on population & employment growth – changing demands & trends
Updated transportation funding sources
New information on costs & other financial inputs
Revised regional priorities as determined by NYMTC’s members
New federal requirements & priorities
Technological developments
New air quality forecasts
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Required scale and schedule
• Multi-modal
• Minimum 20-year planning horizon
• New plan required every four years
A framework for the use of federal funding
• Congestion management
• Fiscal constraint/project selection
• Transportation conformity (mobile source emissions)
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Plan 2045 Components
Shared Vision and Strategic
Framework
• Megaregional & Regional Contexts
• Growth & Demand Forecasts/Drivers of Change
• Goals and Desired Outcomes
• Coordinated Development Emphasis Areas
• Near-Term Priorities & Actions (first ten years)
• System Performance Report (to be added 2018)
Federally-Supported Transportation
System
• System Inventory
• Transportation System Management & Operations (TSMO)
• Transportation Safety, Security and Emergency Management
• Major Projects, System Preservation & System Enhancements (constrained & aspirational)
Financial Plan
• Capital Costs & Resources
• Operations & Maintenance Costs & Resources
• Supplemental Resources
Required Special Elements
• Environmental Mitigation & New Consultation
• Pedestrian-Bicycle Element
• Regional Freight Plan
• Coordinated Public Transit-Human Services Transportation Plan
• Congestion Management Process (CMP) Status Report
• Environmental Justice Assessment
PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT FOR PLAN 2045
Plan 2045 was developed in part through a public involvement effort that engaged various constituencies in
the NYMTC planning area. This included:
• Website and virtual public workshop
• An online survey
• An explanatory video
• Public workshops
• Focus groups
• Public advisory working groups
• Feedback through social media
Input was gathered from the general public, community-based advocacy groups, communities of concern and other stakeholders.
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FUTURE CHALLENGES
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KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE NEW PLAN
The current transportation
system accommodates millions of daily
passenger trips, as well as millions of
tons of freight.
The current transportation
system is extensiveand aging.
NYMTC’s planning area is projected to grow in population,
employment and travel by 2045.
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Over 19,000 lane-miles of roadways
Over 2,400 roadway bridges
More than 1,100 miles of bicycle facilities
Nearly 480 route miles of commuter rail
225 route miles of subway tracks
Hundreds of miles of local, express,
commuter, and intercity bus routes and
an aerial tramway
An extensive network of passenger hubs, stations and stops
Supporting infrastructure
CHALLENGE - OPERATING, PRESERVING AND ENHANCING THE FEDERALLY-SUPPORTED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
CHALLENGE - ANTICIPATING CHANGE
CHALLENGE – REGIONAL GROWTH
11.0% 10.3%
67.1%70.4%
Population Employment Freight Tonnage* GDP**
Forecasted Growth in the NYMTC Planning Area; 2017 through 2045
*Forecasted growth in Freight Tonnage is for 2012 through 2045**Forecasted growth in GDP is for 2015 through 2045
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CHALLENGE - GROWING TRAVEL
Daily Trips Daily Transit Trips Daily Auto Trips Daily VMT
LHV 14.9% 26.8% 13.4% 16.1%
LI 12.8% 27.0% 12.3% 13.1%
NYC 8.0% 10.5% 5.0% 7.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Forecasted Growth; 2017 through 2045
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CHALLENGE – INCREASING CONGESTION
Forecasted Roadway Conditions 6 a.m.-10 a.m. Suffolk County
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CHALLENGE -- GROWING GOODS MOVEMENT
365
610
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2045
MIL
LIO
NS
OF
TON
S
Freight Tonnage by Mode – NYMTC Planning Area
Truck Rail Water Air
Freight Tonnage by County
2012 & 2045
Source: 2012 IHS Global Insight Transearch Data, 2012 Surface Transportation Board (STB) Waybill Sample
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CHALLENGE --MEGAREGIONAL TRAVELSHED
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RESPONDING TO THE CHALLENGES
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Plan 2045’s Strategic Framework
Strategic Goals
Related Desired Outcomes
Near-Term Actions
Sustainability Features
Fiscal Constraint & Project Eligibility/Selection
Enhance the regional environment
Improve the regional economy
Improve the regional quality of life
Preserve the existing transportation infrastructure
Provide a convenient, flexible transportation system within the region
Enhance the safety and security of the transportation system for both motorized and non-motorized users
Improve the resiliency of the regional transportation system
Build the case for obtaining resources to implement regional investments
Plan 2045’s Strategic FrameworkStrategic Goals
Plan 2045’s Strategic Framework Sustainability Features
Coordinated Development Emphasis Areas (CDEAs)
Locations where changes to land use and transportation will help shape future growth and the manner in which that growth is accommodated by the transportation system
CDEAs provide a framework for sustainable growth and development
CDEAs are targets for development and transportation investment in a
coordinated fashion, particularly linked to the existing and future transit network
Suffolk County Coordinated
Development Emphasis Areas
(CDEAs)
6/27/2017 28
Plan 2045’s Strategic Framework Fiscal Constraint & Project Eligibility/Selection
Plan 2045 proposes . . .
Nearly $627 billion in year-of-expenditure (YOE) dollars to adequately operate and maintain system components and services.
Roughly $463 billion in YOE dollars for System Preservation projects and strategies.
Approximately $33 billion for various System Enhancement projects.
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An average of $22.4 billion
per year
An average of $16.5 billion
per year
Fiscal Constraint – An Illustration
$0.000
$10.000
$20.000
$30.000
$40.000
$50.000
$60.000
Year 1 Year 6 Year 25
BIL
LIO
NS
OF
YO
E $
$
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REASONABLY-EXPECTEDREVENUES
SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCINGALTERNATIVES
CONSTRAINED PLAN
VISION ELEMENT(unconstrained)
TIP
Constrained TIP and Plan must
include a forecast of System
Preservation costs for the entire
planning period
FORMULA FEDERAL , $104,838
FEDERAL DISCRETIONARY & OTHER, $11,655
OTHER STATE/ LOCAL, $115,165
LOCAL for MTA, $243,096
PROJECT SPECIFIC STATE/LOCAL, $18,234
ADDITIONAL FUNDING, $3,078
Transit preservation, $370,919
Roadway presevation, $92,544
System enhancements, $32,603
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
FORECASTED REVENUES (AT FEDERAL UPPER LIMIT) FORECASTED COSTS
Capital Revenues Vs. CostsFederally-Supported Transportation System
(in millions of YOE dollars)
TOTAL COSTS:$496,066
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Major System Enhancements in the Constrained Plan
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Other Plan 2045 Constrained/Vision Projects
6/27/2017
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Significant Planning Studiesin the Vision Element
Regional
• Impacts of Future Changes Study
• Demand Management Program Evaluation
• Local capacity-building through community planning workshops
• Freight Land Use Study
• Clean Freight Corridors Program
• Cross Sound Connection Feasibility Study
• NY-NJ-CT Transportation Vulnerability & Adaptation Study (FHWA)
• Centralized Information for Specialized Services Study
Long Island
• Long Island Motor Parkway Trail (Nassau County)
• Shoreham Deep Water Port Feasibility Study (Suffolk County)
• Sagtikos State Parkway/Sunken Meadow State Parkway Operational Study (Suffolk County)
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