NYT Shale Gas Bubble Emails v2

8/6/2019 NYT Shale Gas Bubble Emails v2

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nyt-shale-gas-bubble-emails-v2 1/486











































































































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HV Type Well

IP = 18 Mmcf/d

D initial = 82%

B = 1.1

EUR = 7.5 Bcf

82% 45% 30% 22% 18% 15%

80% of EUR produced in

10 years

13% 11% 10% 9%Annual

Decline

D?&(%@2+EFG- &-(/>+(&A)(,4&)B$%.&)H@%)E&00-)4%@A$B&A)(,4/B+00,)@')+)68I98J B2@F&



Steve Drake .Marsh Operating Company .







Ft Worth / Dallas

TraverseCity

Detroit



15% are less than

50 MCF/D for themax month.

11% are greater

than 200 MCF/D

for the max monthMedian: 97 mcf/d

Average: 121 mcf/d



Peak Average IP

= 150 MCF/D

Current Average IP

= 60 MCF/D











Devon buys Mitchell Energy

Barnett Shale Boom Begins

Four run ups in price.

One of the four lasted for 6 years.

Barnett becomes

commercial





casing head

legacy

BCF/Day

0.0 indicates sales less than 100 MMCF/day





Ft Worth / Dallas

HoustonSan Antonio

















Largest Barnett Shale Well:

12.98 MMCF / DayMax Month (30 day average)

Currently non-commercial



Average: 2.030 mmcf 20% are less than

1 MMCF/D for the

first month. 20% are greater than 3 MMCF/D

for the first monthMedian: 1.900 mmcf





IP(30 day average rate): 2200 MCF/Dayst

nd

rd

th

th

EUR = Estimated Ultimate Recovery

* Will change with changes in gas price

G a s P r o d u c t i o n

( M C F / m o n t h

EUR: 2.1 BCF red

2.4 BCF black



10



local deduct

lifetime

lifetime

10.74% X 75% of revenue









Ft Worth / Dallas

Houston

Shreveport



20% are less than

1 MMCF/D for the

first month.25% are greater

than 10 MMCF/D

for the first month

Median: 6.500 mmcf/d

Average: 7.159 mmcf/d

Louisiana 421 wells

LA average: 9.1 mmcf/dLA median: 8.6 mmcf/d

Texas 205 wells

TX average: 3.0 mmcf/d

TX median: 1.7 mmcf/d



IP (30 day average rate): 7175 MCF/Day

EUR: 4.6 BCF red

5.4 BCF black






EUR: 4.75 BCF red

6.00 BCF black





th

10



Ft Worth / Dallas

St Louis

Little Rock

Tulsa

Memphis



27% are less than

1 MMCF/D for the

first month.

15% are greater

than 3 MMCF/D

for the first month

Median: 1.670 mmcf/d

Average: 1.796 mmcf/d






EUR: 2.1 BCF red

2.5 BCF black



10



Ft Worth / Dallas

OK City

Little Rock

Tulsa

Amarillo



© 2010 DrillingInfo, Inc.

High graded

Counties





33% are less than

500 MCF/D for the

first month.15% are greater

than 3 MMCF/D

for the first month

Median All: 1.021 mmcf/d

Average Horizontal: 2.175 mmcf/d






EUR: 3.5 BCF red

4.2 BCF black



10



Ft Worth / Dallas

Pittsburgh

Scranton



BCF million

IP = Max Month (30 day average MCF/D)




EUR: 3.8 BCF red

4.5 BCF black















Coal

Wind

Nuclear

Clean Coal

Wind Energy was more economic

than natural gas for 6 months





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Reported



566

:6

:G

I(?,&.(-#!&,-*'./,0#J*)# F667#8 J*0#F6 56#2$<K;

L())#<,*0.Operator

Reported

Production

Jul 2009 -

Jun 2010

(mcf)

Well

Count

Average

Well

Volume

(mcf)

Average

Daily

(mmcf/d)

CABOT OIL & GAS CORP 19,018,873 30 633,962 4.86

CHESAPEAKE APPALACHIA LLC 33,658,547 49 686,909 4.44

SENECA RESOURCES CORP 4,138,117 7 591,160 4.29

EQT PRODUCTION LLC 7,619,052 14 544,218 3.76

H6

96

5G

F6

FG

L ( ) ) ' , * 0 .

M ' N

TALISMAN ENERGY USA INC 29,421,842 64 459,716 3.54

CHIEF OIL & GAS LLC 4,764,731 17 280,278 3.17

EAST RESOURCES INC 8,937,625 23 388,592 2.91

ANADARKO E&P CO LP 1,455,673 5 291,135 2.79

ULTRA RESOURCES INC 1,649,418 8 206,177 2.16

ENERGY CORP OF AMER 3,204,207 8 400,526 2.16

XTO ENERGY INC 861,797 5 172,359 2.08

CNX GAS CO LLC 6,697,014 19 352,474 2.03

RANGE RESOURCES APPALACHIA LLC 29,499,227 96 307,284 1.90

REX ENERGY OPERATING CORPORATION 1,307,387 9 145,265 1.73

6

F6

6

G

56

, , ,

WILLIAMS PRODUCTION APPALACHIA LLC 1,732,326 7 247,475 1.71

EOG RESOURCES INC 2,447,752 13 188,289 1.32

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Three MonthsEnded

Six MonthsEnded

Twelve MonthsEnded

une ,2010

une ,2010

une ,2011

Net income....................................................... $ 37,017 $ 71,931 $ 203,900

Adjust for: Interest expense ............................................. 526 1,137 3,800De reciation and amorti ation e ense 23 442 45 392 92 500



De reciation and amortization ex ense......... 23 442 45 392 92 500(Gain) Loss on sale of assets ......................... (37) (67)

Adjusted EBITDA ............................................ $ 60,948 $ 118,393 $ 300,200

Cash provided by operating activities .......... $ 79,084 $ 197,409

Adjust for:Changes in assets and liabilities .................... (18,688) (80,195)Maintenance capital expenditures .................. (17,500) (35,000)Other non-cash items ..................................... 26 42

Distributable cash flow................................... 42,922 82,256

Adjust for:Implied minimum volume commitment ........... 14,219 31,395

Adjusted distributable cash flow .................. $ 57,141 $ 113,651

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CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP

NYSE: CHK

Chesapeake Energy Corp.'s operations are focused on discovering and developing unconventional naturalgas and oil fields onshore in the U.S. Chesapeake owns leading positions in the Barnett, Fayetteville,Haynesville, Marcellus and Bossier natural gas shale plays and in the Eagle Ford, Granite Wash and variousother unconventional oil plays, largely in the Anadarko, Permian and Powder River Basins. The companyhas also vertically integrated its operations and owns substantial midstream, compression, drilling andoilfield service assets.

Analyst's NotesAnalysis by Philip H. Weiss, CFA, CPA, March 11, 2011

ARGUS RATING: HOLD

• CHK: Reiterating HOLD; transformation -- real or temporary

• CHK ended 2010 with proved reserves of 17.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (tcfe). Itsreserve replacement ratio was approximately 100% and only 53% of reserves were proved

Argus Recommendations

Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY

Five Year Rating SELL HOLD BUY

Sector RatingUnderWeight

MarketWeight

OverWeight

Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to eachstock under coverage.

• BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (thebenchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over thenext year.

• HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with thek t

Page 1 OF 13Report created Mar 15, 2011



reserve replacement ratio was approximately 100% and only 53% of reserves were proveddeveloped, down from 58% in 2009 and 67% in 2008

• We are raising our 2011 EPS forecast to $2.80 from $2.60 and introducing a 2012 estimate of $3.00.

Our forecast is that daily production will average 3.1 bcfe/d in 2011, down from 3.2 bcfe/d previouslyand slightly above the midpoint of management's guidance.

• Chesapeake reported 4Q10 operating earnings available to common shareholders of $0.64 per share(excluding a gain associated with the sale of fixed assets, unrealized mark-to-market losses and animpairment charge), compared to $0.64 in 3Q10 and $0.77 in 4Q09.

• On February 21, CHK announced the sale of its 487,000 net acres of Fayetteville Shale leasehold toBHP Billiton for $4.75 billion in cash before certain deductions and standard closing adjustments.

INVESTMENT THESIS

We are reiterating our HOLD rating on Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK). It is

possible that Chesapeake is in the midst of a transformation taking it from a poor capitalallocator to a strong one. Owning shares in companies as they make this transition can bequite lucrative. However, we are not sold that the effort will last, as previous attempts todo so have fallen short. Additionally, we remain concerned, in particular, aboutmanagement's short-term focus and the company's aggressive accounting policies.

We have long maintained that CHK has one of the industry's best collections of naturalgas assets. Despite this belief, our enthusiasm for the shares is limited due to concernsabout management's profligate spending, its correspondingly weak balance sheet, and itstendency to use financial engineering, such as long-dated hedges and volumetricproduction payments to accelerate the timing of cash receipts While we recognize that

market.

• SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the marketon a risk-adjusted basis.

The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company

universe is: 51% Buy, 45% Hold, 4% Sell.

Key StatisticsKey Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closingprice. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unlessotherwise specified

Market OverviewPrice $33.56

Target Price --

52 Week Price Range $19.62 to $35.95

Shares Outstanding 657.63 MillionDividend $0.30

Sector OverviewSector Energy

Sector Rating OVER WEIGHT

Total % of S&P 500 Market Cap. 12.00%

Financial StrengthFinancial Strength Rating LOW

Debt/Capital Ratio 45.3%

Return on Equity 15 0%


NYSE: CHK

Analyst's Notes...Continued

techniques CHK has used.Perhaps most important, however, was our concern about

earnings quality. Our review of the footnotes to CHK's financialstatements over the last several years raised several red flags, andwe remain concerned about these issues.

At the same time, despite our earnings quality concerns (and ourbelief that the company's accounting policies and heavy use of off-balance-sheet leverage add unnecessary complexity andobfuscate true financial performance), we believe thatmanagement's announcements over the past two months representpositive steps in addressing the operational issues we have raised.In fact, some recent actions appear to be a direct response to theseconcerns As such we believe that it makes sense to give

have a multitude of drilling opportunities, it also takes time andresources to exploit opportunities. Cash paid today by a highlyleveraged company is more costly than cash paid today by one thathas a stronger financial position and a lower cost of capital. Weview the recent agreement to sell CHK's Fayetteville acreage as apositive step that starts to address these concerns.

CHK has by far the weakest balance sheet of any energycompany in our coverage group, which increases risk, particularlyif the economic recovery falters. More importantly, we believe thatCHK's accounting is less than transparent, as the companyregularly enters into joint ventures and engages in off-balance-sheetfinancing, including sale-leaseback transactions and volumetricproduction payments (VPPs) to generate cash without increasing




concerns. As such, we believe that it makes sense to givemanagement another chance, and to see if it can ultimately deliveron its promises. We have heard promises in the past of plans toreduce debt, decelerate drilling activity, slow spending, and ceaseissuing new equity, only to see management reverse course and takeactions that contradict its stated plans.

We have also expressed concerns in the past about thecompany's tendency to change its focus more frequently than othercompanies in our coverage group, as well as our desire to seemanagement rein in its seemingly insatiable desire for assets. Webelieve it would be better for the company to simply manage itscurrent asset base and slow down growth activity, especially whilenatural gas prices are relatively low.

While it sounds impressive to hold large acreage positions and

production payments (VPPs) to generate cash without increasingbalance-sheet debt. We also are concerned about the company'sgrowing use of long-dated futures contracts. While managementredeemed some of its long-term notes last year in an effort to cleanup the balance sheet, the notes have generally been replaced withpreferred stock.

In our view, preferred stock is akin to debt, so we view themove as more of a recapitalization than as an effort to improve thecompany's financial strength. On a gross basis, including preferredstock, at December 31, 2010, CHK's debt was at its highest levelsince at least December 31, 2000, which is the furthest date forwhich we maintain data. Simultaneously, management has beentrumpeting its efforts to reduce debt. We disagree withmanagement's position. We do recognize, however, that this figure

Growth & Valuation AnalysisGROWTH ANALYSIS

($ in Millions, except per share data) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Revenue 4,665 7,326 7,800 11,629 7,702

COGS 1,675 2,079 2,703 1,316 1,165

Gross Profit 2,990 5,247 5,097 10,313 6,537

SG&A 64 139 243 3,882 2,665

R&D — — — — —

Financial & Risk Analysis

FINANCIAL STRENGTH 2007 2008 2009

Cash ($ in Millions) 1 1,749 307

Working Capital ($ in Millions) -1,365 671 -242

Current Ratio 0.51 1.19 0.91

LT Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 98.0 79.8 112.0

Total Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 98 0 79 8 112 0


NYSE: CHK


should, hopefully, move lower once the Fayetteville sale proceedsare received.

Chesapeake also uses the full-cost accounting method, whichmakes it difficult to compare its metrics with peers. In addition, ithas used long-dated call options on oil, natural gas liquids andnatural gas in order to generate greater premiums for its near-termhedges. In short, while the company maintains that it has ampleliquidity, its actions suggest that it needs more cash than itsoperations generate. In our view, management's boasts about thecompany's low finding costs are also somewhat superficial, as itsaccounting methodology allows it to reduce the size of its full-costpool by offsetting gains from prior transactions and applying'drilling carries ' thereby lowering unit finding and development

preferred dividends were $0.70 per share exceeding the Streetconsensus of $0.63 and our $0.68 estimate, primarily due tobetter-than-anticipated price realizations, higher-than-expectedproduction, and lower-than-forecast unit depreciation, depletionand amortization (DD&A) costs. Unit DD&A costs were $1.38 permcfe compared to our estimate of $1.43, down from $1.39 in4Q09 and up from the $1.36 in the prior quarter. Productionexpenses were $0.91, ahead of our $0.90 forecast and up from$0.83 in 3Q10 and $0.86 in 4Q09. Revenues (excluding unrealizedbut including realized mark-to-market gains) were $2.0 billion,down 23% sequentially and 11% year-over-year. Production in4Q10 averaged 2.92 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (bcfe/d),down 4% sequentially but up 12% year-over-year Roughly 88%




drilling carries, thereby lowering unit finding and developmentcosts and depreciation, depletion and amortization rates. We didnote some comments on CHK's 4Q10 conference call in whichmanagement acknowledge this fact with relation to the announcedsale of its Fayetteville assets.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Chesapeake reported 4Q10 operating earnings available tocommon shareholders of $0.64 per share (excluding a gainassociated with the sale of fixed assets, unrealized mark-to-marketlosses and an impairment charge), compared to $0.64 in 3Q10 and$0.77 in 4Q09. It should be noted that unlike the Street consensusour figure includes preferred stock dividends as such amounts arenot available to common stockholders. Results excluding the

down 4% sequentially but up 12% year over year. Roughly 88%of production was in the form of natural gas, compared to 90% in3Q10 and 93% in 4Q09. Year-over-year growth in natural gasliquids and oil volumes was 103%, versus a 5% gain in natural gasvolumes.

For 2010, CHK delivered operating income per share availableto common stockholders of $2.79, a 9% increase. Productionaveraged 2.84 bcfe/d, up from 2.48 bcfe/d in 2009. Natural gasaccounted for 89% of total volumes versus 92% in 2009. 2010represented the 21st consecutive year of sequential productiongrowth.

CHK ended 2010 with proved reserves of 17.1 trillion cubic feetof natural gas equivalent (tcfe). Its reserve replacement ratio wasapproximately 100% and only 53% of reserves were proved

Peer & Industry AnalysisThe graphics in this section are designed toallow investors to compare CHK versus itsindustry peers, the broader sector, and themarket as a whole, as defined by the ArgusUniverse of Coverage.

• The scatterplot shows how CHK stacks upversus its peers on two keycharacteristics: long-term growth andvalue In general companies in the lower

Growth

30

APC APC APC APC APC

P/E

CHK vs.Market

CHK vs.Sector

More Value More Growth

Price/Sales

CHK


NYSE: CHK


developed, down from 58% in 2009 and 67% in 2008 (it shouldbe noted that due to SEC changes to reserve reporting, thepercentage of proved undeveloped reserves has increased industrywide). However, relative to our peer group, CHK's percentage of proved developed reserves is relatively low. Finding anddevelopment costs (F&D) on an all-in basis were $1.57 per mcfe,$1.76 and $2.20 over the last one-, three- and five years,respectively. Organic F&D averaged $1.06, $1.37 and $1.61 permcfe over the respective periods. The cost of acquired reservesdrove overall costs higher as the majority of the acreage CHKtypically purchases is undeveloped and reserves have not yet beenbooked. That said, reserve additions averaged $31.28 in 2010,sharply ahead of the three- and five-year averages of $16.32 and

CHK's business model.We admit that CHK's hedging program has generated

significant realized gains; it also increases the price certainty on therevenue side. Our concern is over its increasing use of long-datedcall options (for this purpose, we are specifically referring to hedgesthat go beyond the next fiscal year - as of 1Q11, this would be for2013 and later). We once heard a well-known energy analyst saythat the only price he knew oil would not be over the next year waswhatever he said it would be. We agree and think this applies tonatural gas as well. While all analysts strive to provide reasonableprice outlooks, there are many factors beyond fundamentals thatcan impact prices and make actual results much different thanforecasts. In our opinion, CHK's short-term needs for cash are so




sharply ahead of the three and five year averages of $16.32 and$8.77, respectively. As highlighted in previous notes, CHK wasparticularly aggressive in acquiring acreage in 2010, as it spent inexcess of $5 billion.

On February 21, CHK announced the sale of its 487,000 netacres of Fayetteville Shale leasehold to BHP Billiton for $4.75billion in cash before certain deductions and standard closingadjustments. The transaction includes existing net production of 415 mcfe/d and midstream assets with approximately 475 miles of pipeline. We estimate proved reserves were roughly 2.5 tcfe. Thetransaction is expected to close in 1H11. The sales price equates to$11.45 per flowing mcfe and $2.21 per mcfe of proved reserves.The sales price was at the high end of our estimate range and on aproved reserve basis it was roughly in line with what Exxon paid

recently when it acquired acreage in the play from PetrohawkEnergy. As part of the deal, CHK also agreed to provide essentialservices for up to one year for BHP's Fayetteville properties for anagreed-upon fee. Upon closing CHK intends to retire $2-$3 billionof its senior notes and to reduce borrowings under its revolvingcredit line; however, the latter figure could increase again in thefuture, depending on working capital needs. See our note of February 9 for further discussion on this transaction.

EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS

forecasts. In our opinion, CHK s short term needs for cash are someaningful that it needs to use financial engineering to acceleratecash receipts in order to finance its activity. This includesvolumetric production payments (it is essentially paid for futureproduction upfront), long-dated call options, sale-leasebacktransactions and joint venture activities (which also cause it to losepartial control of some of its most attractive assets). In conjunctionwith writing this report, we reviewed CHK's use of long-datedfutures for natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids since it firststarted this practice in 4Q07. What we found was that on arelatively consistent basis over this period, the amount of futurevolumes that have been hedged keeps increasing. Perhaps moreimportantly, the size of the related losses keeps growing as well. Asof December 31, 2010, the fair value of its long-dated hedges was

negative $1.6 billion. It has call options on oil in the mid-$80srange from 2013 and beyond - we note that as late as 1Q09 thecall options on oil had a $185 strike price. We believe the value of CHK's long-term hedges is either going to continue to decline overtime, or alternatively, the positions will be liquidated at a loss.

As of its 2010 10-K, CHK had written long-dated call optionson 2014-2020 natural gas volumes at a weighted-average price of $7.07 per mcf, down from 3Q10's $7.49. It entered into contractscovering more than 230,000 bcf in the fourth quarter. It had alsowritten calls for crude oil from 2014-2017 at a weighted-average


NYSE: CHK


company's relatively weak balance sheet, we think there is at least areasonable argument for CHK to enlist the help of others. We alsorecall, however, prior conversations with a rig provider whochooses not to do business with CHK because it is always lookingto undercut market rates in terms of dayrates and when it does dobusiness it takes a long time to pay. In short, our view aboutCHK's vertical integration is somewhat akin to our opinion aboutit having an interest in so many different plays. We think it wouldbe better to limit the scope. We also think it is hard to provide thehighest caliber services across so many business lines.Management's approach reminds us of the title of a book directedtoward getting children to realize they can't have everything theywant called But I Wannntt It! We think it would be better if

aggressive than may be warranted by current prices, we think thatcompanies would be better served by scaling back activity whenprices are lower. The potential benefits of such actions would betwofold: (1) they would result in lower supply; and (2) they wouldlikely increase free cash flow. Through the first half of the year,CHK's capital expenditures, including acquisitions and proceedsfrom asset sales, exceeded operating cash flow by about $1.1billion. In fact, the company has not been free cash flow-positive inany year reflected in our model, which goes back to 2001.

We would prefer to see more emphasis on free cash flowgeneration and less on production growth. This issue is not solelyChesapeake's. It seems to be endemic to the industry; it is alsohelped by the willingness of banks and investors to provide these




want called But I Wannntt It! We think it would be better if management would show greater discipline and reduce its appetite.

What we're also uncertain about is whether investors reallyunderstand what they're getting when they buy shares of CHK.

Historically, CHK has been perceived as a near pure play onnatural gas production. We don't think that's the case any longer.First, there's the operational shift to more liquids production.However, CHK has also ramped up hedging activity. While thehedges are supported by production, the level and type of hedgingactivity is well above that of any company in CHK's peer group.Moreover, the company has a history of aggressively acquiringacreage and then forming joint ventures for its larger holdings tooffset acquisition costs. Again, while we are not against the idea of companies making money and generating cash flow, we question

whether investors are fully aware of the impact on CHK's business.Another item we noticed in reviewing CHK's 4Q10 results is thatits Marketing operations generated $50 million more of pre-taxincome than its E&P operations did. In short, we no longer viewCHK as the best 'pure play' on natural gas. Its business model haschanged. We can make the argument that it's not just anindependent E&P company either. Instead, it now seems to be acombination of an E&P company and a financial entity. Perhapseven a hedge fund of a sort. At the same time, we remain concernedabout the company's earnings quality.

helped by the willingness of banks and investors to provide thesecompanies with the liquidity they need to continue drilling evenwhen the cash flow they generate does not support the activitylevel. Independent E&P companies, in particular, often act as if the

most important characteristic they can exhibit is productiongrowth. Often, share prices do react positively to news aboutincreased volumes, at least in the short term. However, taking avalue-based approach, we believe that generating consistentpositive free cash flow is the key driver of long-term results. Wealso think investors would realize the greatest long-term rewards if companies took this view. In fact, looking at share priceperformance over the last few years, we find that those companiesin our coverage universe that generate the best cash flow alsoexhibit the best long-term stock performance.

FINANCIAL STRENGTH & DIVIDEND

Our financial strength rating for Chesapeake is Low, the bottomof our five-point scale. CHK's total debt/capital ratio was 58% atthe end of 4Q10, up from 53% at 2009's end and easily the highestamong its peers in our coverage universe. Unlike most otheranalysts on the Street, when determining Chesapeake's total debt,we include its obligations under capital leases and the excess of itsdefined benefit pension obligations over the fair value of theunderlying assets. While the operating leases are not on the balanceh k h d l d h


NYSE: CHK


liability management program, which includes extending thematurity profile of its outstanding indebtedness while also retiringapproximately $2.0 to $3.0 billion of its shorter-dated senior notesas part of its 25/25 Plan - 25% debt reduction and 25%production growth over 2011 and 2012.

Our concerns about CHK's weak financial position remainhigh; we believe that many of its financing practices support ourview. As discussed above, we think that CHK uses long-dated stockoptions primarily because it needs to accelerate the receipt of cash.Current spot prices for natural gas are not high enough to supportspending, so the company uses long-dated options to generate morenear-term cash. Similarly, the VPPs are used to generate cashproceeds today for production that will not be supplied for several

company's accounting appear to be shared, as one firm that ratescompanies on accounting and governance, Audit Integrity, givesCHK an 'Aggressive' rating.

CHK has currently budgeted drilling and completion capitalexpenditures, net of drilling and completion carries, of $5.0 - $5.4billion in 2011 and $5.4 - $5.8 billion in 2012. Managementanticipates funding all or substantially these amounts using cashflow from operations in 2011 and 2012. Based on our model, wethink this is possible. Management also plans to fund leaseholdacquisition capital expenditures, together with other capitalexpenditure requirements, with a combination of revolving bankcredit facility borrowings and proceeds from asset monetizations.As of December 31, 2010, CHK had made commitments to acquire




p y p ppyears (five to 15 years, depending on the VPP). Other tools are the

JV structures CHK forms once it accumulates sufficiently largepositions in high-demand resource plays.

Our financial strength rating of Low also reflects our concernsabout the company's earnings quality. We have noted several 10-Kfootnote changes over the past six years, including the threediscussed in great detail in our October 15 note that could beconstrued as attempts to make the company's reported incomeappear better than it would have been absent such changes. Inaddition, we would greatly prefer to see the company use thesuccessful-efforts rather than the full-cost accounting method.Under successful efforts, companies report gains and losses on assetsales on their income statement. They also record exploration

expense. Instead, CHK's gains from its asset sales are netted againstits full-cost pool. Based on the JVs it has entered to date, CHK willultimately realize $16.5 billion in total proceeds from assetmonetizations - including drilling carries and dispositions. Thisfigure should exceed $21 billion once the Fayetteville asset salediscussed above closes. Most analysts exclude gains or losses onasset sales from operating earnings. Under CHK's accountingmethod, such gains are credits to the full-cost pool that reducefuture unit costs. Management often makes reference to thecompany's low finding costs and DD&A rates; however, these have

, , qadditional proved and unproved properties in various transactionsduring the next twelve months for approximately $350 million.Chesapeake reassesses its budget on a monthly basis, so guidance

can change at any time.The company does not have any long-term debt due before

2013, and it is not currently in danger of failing to meet its debtcovenants. At December 31, the company had $102 million of cashon hand and $15.6 billion of net long-term debt, up from $12.5billion at the end of 4Q09. It also had about $3.7 billion of additional borrowing capacity under its revolving bank creditfacilities as of December 31.

CHK pays a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, or $0.30annually, for a yield of about 1.4%. Due to the company's

aggressive spending pattern in 2010 as well as plans to reduce debt,we do not anticipate dividend increases in 2011 or 2012.

MANAGEMENT & RISKS

Aubrey McClendon has served as the company's chairman andCEO since 1989 and is one of its cofounders. His five-yearemployment agreement requires him to hold shares with aninvestment value equal to 500% of the total of his annual salaryand cash bonuses. This percentage was reduced to 200% in 2009but reverted to 500% in 2010. Mr. McClendon also is part of a

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NYSE: CHK


generate greater premiums for its near-term hedges. In short, whilethe company maintains that it has ample liquidity, its actionssuggest that it needs more cash than its operations generate. In ourview, management's boasts about the company's low finding costsare also somewhat superficial, as its accounting methodologyallows it to reduce the size of its full-cost pool by offsetting gainsfrom prior transactions and applying 'drilling carries,' therebylowering unit finding and development costs and depreciation,depletion and amortization rates.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

On January 6, CHK issued its preliminary 2010 operationalresults and outlined its new 2011-2012 strategic and financial plan,(th 25/25 Pl ) d hi h it i t d t d l t d bt b

boe. In September 2010, CHK acquired about 24,166 acres inGoshen County Wyoming, which is located in the northern part of the DJJ Basin and is prospective for the Niobrara Shale fromSamson Oil & Gas Ltd. The purchase price equated to about$3,275 per acre. It received even more from CNOOC - roughly$4,750 per acre, or closer to $4,000 if the amount received in theform of drilling carries is discounted at about 10%. CHK currentlyhas five rigs drilling in the play. It intends to increase this total to10 by the end of 2011 and to 20 by the end of 2012.

Chesapeake also increased its hedging position. As of January 6,it had hedged 96% of expected 2011 natural gas production at anaverage price of $5.84 per mcf. It had also hedged roughly 17% of anticipated 2012 volumes at $6.19 per mcf, including




(the 25/25 Plan) under which it intends to reduce long-term debt by25% over the next two years while slowing its two-year productiongrowth rate to 25% from its previously announced target of

30%-40%. CHK's 4Q10 production averaged about 2.9 billioncubic feet of natural gas equivalent (bcfe/d), a 4% sequentialdecrease but an 11% year-over-year improvement. It should benoted that at the end of 3Q10, CHK sold future productionthrough a volumetric production payment covering a portion of itsBarnett Shale assets, including approximately 350 mmcfe/d of production in 4Q10. Excluding this sale, production would haveincreased 7% sequentially and 25% year-over-year. We willprovide additional details related to 4Q10 activity as well asreserve activity in a future note, as the company has disclosed only

limited data ahead of its 4Q10 earnings report on February 23.Chesapeake's has dubbed its updated strategic and financialplan as 'the 25/25 Plan.' The plan does not include any change inthe company's decision to transition its production mix to higherlevels of liquids. However, it does focus on lowering long-term debtby 25% over the next two years through a substantial reduction inleasehold spending (it spent approximately $5 billion in 2010) andthrough various asset monetizations, which will reduce CHK'splanned two-year production growth rate to 25% from apreviously targeted 30%-40%. Perhaps more importantly, the

d d f d k

p p , gapproximately 29% of expected 1H12 volumes at $6.19. Based onthe prices received, we believe the company once again usedlong-dated call options to enhance the price of its near-term hedges.

We have discussed our dislike for this particular strategy manytimes in the past. In short, while we tend to think future prices willbe higher than those today, there are too many variables that cancause a bad result in the future. If CHK was less leveraged, itwould have less need to use this technique.

On February 8, CHK announced plans to sell its FayettevilleShale assets as well as its investments in Frac Tech Holdings, LLCand Chaparral Energy, Inc. If the sales are completed, managementanticipates that the combined pretax proceeds could exceed $5billion. Chesapeake currently owns approximately 487,000 net

acres in the Fayetteville leasehold (up from 440,000 at November3). It has a joint venture in the play with BP. BP is aware of CHK'sintentions and does have a right of first refusal in the event theacreage is put on the market. Given BP's current predispositiontowards asset sales, we think it is more likely to be a seller than abuyer.

The most recent transaction we are aware of in the Fayettevillewas a sale of 157,000 net acres from Petrohawk Energy toExxonMobil for $575 million. Current net production associatedwith that acreage is roughly 415 mmcf/d. Using the $5,870 per


NYSE: CHK


overall production profile.Management intends to use the net proceeds from these sales as

well as the Niobrara JV mentioned above to retire approximately$2-$3 billion of its shorter-dated senior notes and to reduceborrowing under its revolving bank credit line. CHK has $500million of long-term debt due in 2013. Its revolver matures inDecember 2015. Based on our discussions with management, weexpect CHK will also use a portion of the proceeds to build out itsown fracturing services business, as it looks to vertically integratethose operations. This is a course it has also taken with its drillingoperations; many of the rigs in its fleet used to belong to CHK untilthey were made part of a sale-leaseback in another effort to fundoperations using off-balance-sheet financing.

management's guidance. The biggest change to the company'sproduction profile is its effort to make its production moreliquids-rich; liquids production is expected to increase from 49mboe/d currently to 200 mboe/d by 2015. Management plans toaccelerate drilling of liquids-rich plays until the end of 2012, whenthe company's drilling capital expenditures are to be balancedapproximately 50/50 between natural gas and liquids.

In the past, CHK has benefited meaningfully from a hedgingprogram that has become more aggressive with the passage of time.In fact, in a partial review of CHK's 10-K footnotes in each of thelast six years, we noted a change in language. Through 2007, thefootnote on hedging activities said, 'From time to time, Chesapeakeuses commodity price and financial risk management instruments




On February 8, Chesapeake announced the pricing of a publicoffering of $1.0 billion principal of 10-year senior notes due 2021.The notes carry an interest rate of 6.125%. The proceeds are

currently expected to repay debt outstanding under its revolvingcredit facility, which it anticipates using from time to time to meetcapex needs and for general corporate purposes.

Assuming the Fayetteville sale is completed, we also expect thatCHK will have to monetize a portion of its hedges, as weunderstand it cannot be more than 100% hedged - based on thelast publicly available date, it is currently 96% hedged for 2011.

In general, it should not be surprising that we think the movesthe company is making are the right ones, as they address a numberof the concerns we have expressed in the past. However, we still

think there could be value in slowing growth below the currenttarget of 25% for the next two years.

We believe that many E&Ps have made growth for growth'ssake a part of their business model. We would rather see slowergrowth that delivers better cash flow on a per unit and overallbasis. Such growth would likely result in better returns on capitaland assets, and increased profitability and cash flow. Managementhas been operating under a different business model than the onewe favor for some time. The signs it has shown so far indicate itsapproach could be changing. However, we have heard plans

to mitigate our exposure to price fluctuations in oil and natural gasand interest rates.' The words 'from time to time' were deletedbeginning in 2008. We understand that the hedging activity has

boosted realizations.What we're less sure about is whether investors really

understand what they're getting when they buy shares of CHK.Historically, CHK has been perceived as a near pure play onnatural gas production. We don't think that's the case any longer.First, there's the operational shift to more liquids production. If that were the only change, we would hardly bat an eye. However,CHK has also ramped up hedging activity. While the hedges aresupported by production, the level and type of hedging activity iswell above that of any company in CHK's peer group. Moreover,

as discussed above, the company is aggressively acquiring acreageand then forming joint ventures for its larger holdings to offsetacquisition costs. Again, while we are not against the idea of companies making money and generating cash flow, we questionwhether investors are fully aware of the impact on CHK's business.In short, we no longer view CHK as the best 'pure play' on naturalgas. Its business model has changed. We can make the argumentthat it's not just an independent E&P company either. Instead, itnow seems to be a combination of an E&P company and afinancial entity. Perhaps even a hedge fund of a sort. At the same


NYSE: CHK


believe one can reliably forecast how high (or low) commodityprices (and the related service costs) may be over the next three toten years.

In our view, the biggest advantage to hedges is that they providesome certainty in an uncertain world. However, we think that viewonly prevails in a relatively short time frame. We believe thatCHK's option activity provides further support for our view that itneeds more cash to support its activity than its operations cangenerate, despite management's contention that the company hasample liquidity.

Chesapeake's future growth prospects are largely driven by itspositions in unconventional natural gas shale and liquids plays-Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett, Bossier, Granite Wash, Eagle

into account when determining its total debt/capital ratio, thoughwe believe that these transactions are akin to off-balance-sheetdebt. In essence, VPPs are somewhat similar to loans. The onlydifference is that repayment is in the form of future natural gasvolumes rather than cash. S&P rates Chesapeake's long-term debtas BB. Based on recent management comments, we believe therating agencies share our view of the VPPs. Management disagrees,as it views the VPPs as asset sales. Alternatively, we think the VPPshave some similarities to operating leases, which we also believerepresent off-balance-sheet debt. The intent of the company's latestfinancial plan is to have its debt upgraded to investment-gradestatus. One of management's primary means of achieving this goalappears to be redeeming senior notes and replacing them with




Ford, Anadarko Basin, Permian Basin and Rocky Mountains. As of November 3, it disclosed holdings of 5.9 million net acres inunconventional fields (up from 5.2 million at June 30). Its total

risked, unbooked resource base is 102.1 tcfe, up from 95.2 tcfepreviously. While it is shifting more activity to more lucrativeliquids plays, we continue to believe that the company is spendingtoo aggressively in the current environment. While we understandthat in some cases, such as when leases include held-by-production(HBP) provisions, drilling must be more aggressive than may bewarranted by current prices, we think that companies would bebetter served by scaling back activity when prices are lower. Thepotential benefits of such actions would be twofold: (1) they wouldresult in lower supply; and (2) they would likely increase free cash

flow. Through the first half of the year, CHK's capitalexpenditures, including acquisitions and proceeds from asset sales,exceeded operating cash flow by about $1.1 billion. In fact, thecompany has not been free cash flow-positive in any year reflectedin our model, which goes back to 2001.

We would prefer to see more emphasis on free cash flowgeneration and less on production growth. This issue is not solelyChesapeake's. It seems to be endemic to the industry; it is alsohelped by the willingness of banks and investors to provide thesecompanies with the liquidity they need to continue drilling even

convertible preferred debt. Given that the dividends on thepreferred are cumulative, we classify them as debt and view thetransactions as akin to a recapitalization.

Our concerns about CHK's weak financial position remainhigh; we believe that many of its financing practices support ourview. As discussed above, we think that CHK uses long-dated stockoptions primarily because it needs to accelerate the receipt of cash.Current spot prices for natural gas are not high enough to supportspending, so the company uses long-dated options to generate morenear-term cash. Similarly, the VPPs are used to generate cashproceeds today for production that will not be supplied for severalyears (five to 15 years, depending on the VPP). Other tools are the

JV structures CHK forms once it accumulates sufficiently large

positions in high-demand resource plays.Our financial strength rating of Low also reflects our concerns

about the company's earnings quality. We have noted several 10-Kfootnote changes over the past six years, including the threediscussed in our October 15 note that could be construed asattempts to make the company's reported income appear betterthan it would have been absent such changes. In addition, wewould greatly prefer to see the company use the successful-effortsrather than the full-cost accounting method. Under successfulefforts, companies report gains and losses on asset sales on their


NYSE: CHK


instruments as well as its profligate spending and desire to take abig stake in every significant resource play make it much moredifficult for investors to understand. The related uncertainty alsohas a negative impact on perceived value. Our concerns about thecompany's accounting appear to be shared, as one firm that ratescompanies on accounting and governance, Audit Integrity, givesCHK an 'Aggressive' rating.

Counting leasehold acquisition costs and net of joint venturedrilling carries and asset sales, we estimate that CHK's capex willbe about $5.0 billion in 2010, down from roughly $6.0 billion in2009. Chesapeake reassesses its budget on a monthly basis, soguidance can change at any time. Relative to last year, a good partof the decrease is related to the drilling carries CHK will earn on

more favorable pricing than are currently available. Should suchprices fail to materialize, CHK's capital spending could be limited.

INDUSTRY

Oil industry fundamentals are supportive of increased spendingon oil-related projects, particularly exploration-related

expenditures. The current outlook for oil prices and demandgrowth are supportive of additional investment, particularly inexploration. These factors should benefit oilfield services businessin 2011. According to a Barclay's industry study on producercapital spending plans, capex budgets industry-wide should beabout 11% higher in 2011, providing opportunity for serviceprovider growth. Crude oil prices were $91.38 at the end of 2010 -their highest year end level since 2007 Many are expecting prices




the properties it has joint-ventured as well as anticipated proceedsfrom future joint ventures.

The company does not have any long-term debt due before

2013, and it is not currently in danger of failing to meet its debtcovenants. At September 30, the company had $609 million of cashon hand and $13.9 billion of net long-term debt, up from $12.5billion at the end of 4Q09. It also had about $1.3 billion and $50million of additional borrowing capacity under its Corporate andMidstream revolving bank credit facilities, respectively.

CHK pays a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, or $0.30annually, for a yield of about 1.4%. Due to the company'saggressive spending pattern this year, we no longer anticipatedividend increases in 2010 or 2011.

MANAGEMENT & RISKS

Aubrey McClendon has served as the company's chairman andCEO since 1989 and is one of its cofounders. His five-yearemployment agreement requires him to hold shares with aninvestment value equal to 500% of the total of his annual salaryand cash bonuses. This percentage was reduced to 200% in 2009but reverted to 500% in 2010. Mr. McClendon also is part of awell participation plan, which we think is inappropriate for acompany of CHK's size and not in the best interests of h h ld

their highest year-end level since 2007. Many are expecting pricesto surpass $100 in 2011. While we think a triple-digit handle ismore likely than we did in December, we do not believe that such a

price level will be sustainable. Market fundamentals, includinginventory levels and excess supply, argue that current prices are toohigh. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest forecastsuggests that global oil demand will increase 1.7% in 2011 to arecord 87.8 million barrels. On the other hand, output is expectedto move only 0.9% higher. As we entered the year, the Streetconsensus was that 2011 crude prices would average $87 comparedto slightly below $80 in 2010 - our forecast is for an average priceof $89. With oil prices solidly above $70 per barrel, producerconfidence has grown and capital spending is forecast to rise by

more than 10% this year. This increased confidence in prices beinghigh enough to support activity should benefit service providers.On the other hand, the 2011 outlook for natural gas prices is

much cloudier. Natural gas in storage ended 2010 solidly above thefive-year average and only slightly below 2009's record levels.Prices remain depressed - they are currently in the $4.50 per mcf range - and it seems unlikely they will move markedly higher in2011 - our forecast is for an average price of $4.60. While we havea positive long-term view of natural gas due to its cleaner carbonprofile and apparent abundance, we think prices are unlikely to

h $ l l l b h h l


NYSE: CHK


In our view, the natural gas industry currently faces a supplyglut that is unlikely to dissipate in the near term. We thinklegislation increasing the amount of natural gas used in powergeneration or subsidizing greater transportation fuel use is neededin order to meaningfully increase demand. As a result, we expect adecline in natural gas drilling toward the middle of 2011; however,based on our conversations with others in the industry and giventhe continued wide disparity between oil and natural gas prices onan energy-equivalent basis, we think a good portion of those rigscurrently drilling for natural gas will switch from gas to liquids. In2010, an increasing number of companies reallocated capital from'dry gas' and conventional natural gas plays to 'wetter/more oily'and unconventional plays. We expect these trends to continue, if

h h h ld b f lf ld d




not grow, which should benefit oilfield services providers. Ourview is driven by our understanding that many of the technologiesthat are currently being applied to unconventional wells may

ultimately be applied to both unconventional wells with higherliquid content as well as to older vertical wells.

Our biggest concern about rising oil prices is their potentialeconomic impact. Oil's primary use is as a transportation fuel.Currently, there are relatively few cheap options that can reduce oiluse in this regard. A meaningful portion of oil production is alsoinelastic. As a result, higher oil prices can be akin to a 'tax' onconsumers. Many attribute at least a portion of the blame for therecent recession to higher oil prices. We harbor some concerns of arepeat should oil prices rise too far too fast. On the production

front, we are less optimistic about a significant resumption indrilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico's deepwaters than we werewhen the moratorium was lifted. There have been no newdeepwater permits for new exploration issued to date, and fearsthat there won't be any for much of 2011 are growing.

VALUATION

CHK shares are trading near the top of their 52-week range of $19.62-$32.17; the all-time high reached in 2008 was $74.00. Therecent high was reached on February 7 as the shares responded

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METHODOLOGY & DISCLAIMERS

NYSE: CHK

About Argus

Argus Research, founded by Economist Harold Dorsey in 1934,has built a top-down, fundamental system that is used by Argusanalysts. This six-point system includes Industry Analysis, GrowthAnalysis, Financial Strength Analysis, Management Assessment,Risk Analysis and Valuation Analysis.

Utilizing forecasts from Argus’ Economist, the Industry Analysisidentifies industries expected to perform well over the nextone-to-two years.

The Growth Analysis generates proprietary estimates forcompanies under coverage.

In the Financial Strength Analysis, analysts study ratios tounderstand profitability liquidity and capital structure

And finally, Argus’ Valuation Analysis model integrates ahistorical ratio matrix, discounted cash flow modeling, and peercomparison.

THE ARGUS RESEARCH RATING SYSTEM

Argus uses three ratings for stocks: BUY, HOLD, and SELL.Stocks are rated relative to a benchmark, the S&P 500.

• A BUY-rated stock is expected to outperform the S&P 500 ona risk-adjusted basis over a 12-month period. To make thisdetermination, Argus Analysts set target prices, use beta as themeasure of risk, and compare expected risk-adjusted stockreturns to the S&P 500 forecasts set by the Argus MarketStrategist




understand profitability, liquidity and capital structure.

During the Management Assessment, analysts meet with andfamiliarize themselves with the processes of corporate management

teams.

Quantitative trends and qualitative threats are assessed underthe Risk Analysis.

Strategist.

• A HOLD-rated stock is expected to perform in line with theS&P 500.

• A SELL-rated stock is expected to underperform the S&P 500.

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NYSE: CHK

Chesapeake Energy Corp.'s operations are focused on discovering and developing unconventional naturalgas and oil fields onshore in the U.S. Chesapeake owns leading positions in the Barnett, Fayetteville,Haynesville, Marcellus and Bossier natural gas shale plays and in the Eagle Ford, Granite Wash and variousother unconventional oil plays, largely in the Anadarko, Permian and Powder River Basins. The companyhas also vertically integrated its operations and owns substantial midstream, compression, drilling andoilfield service assets.

Analyst's NotesAnalysis by Philip H. Weiss, CFA, CPA, November 30, 2010

ARGUS RATING: SELL

• CHK: Downgrade to SELL on spending/earnings quality issues

• Although we believe Chesapeake has one of the industry's best collections of natural gas assets, weare lowering our rating from HOLD to SELL due to our continuing concerns about the company's

Argus Recommendations

Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY

Five Year Rating SELL HOLD BUY

Sector RatingUnder

Weight

Market

Weight

Over

Weight

Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to eachstock under coverage.

• BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (thebenchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over thenext year.

• HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with themarket.

Page 1 OF 8Report created Nov 30, 2010



profligate spending and its impact on the balance sheet, as well as our worries about its earningsquality.

• Chesapeake, which once claimed the land grab was over, spent $3.7 billion acquiring natural gas andoil proved and unproved properties through the year's first nine months. It has agreed to spend inexcess of $1 billion more on acreage subsequent to June 30.

• We are also lowering our long-term rating from BUY to HOLD.

• We are lowering our 2010 EPS forecast to $2.78 from $2.95 and our 2011 estimate to $2.55 from$2.75. These decreases are largely associated with downward revisions to our near-term commodityprice forecast, partially mitigated by increases to our production outlook.

INVESTMENT THESIS

Although we believe that HOLD-rated Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) has

one of the industry's best collections of natural gas assets, we are lowering our rating fromHOLD to SELL due to our continuing concerns about the company's profligate spendingand its impact on the balance sheet, as well as our worries about its earnings quality. Wemight think differently if we saw signs that spending would slow and that managementwas truly interested in deleveraging the balance sheet. However, spending continuesunabated; we are lowering our rating. We are also lowering our long-term rating fromBUY to HOLD.

Our pessimistic near-term view also reflects our growing concerns about CHK'searnings quality (based on a review of financial statement footnotes over a period of time)and its frequent use of complex financial products as well as our desire to see management

• SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the marketon a risk-adjusted basis.

The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company

universe is: 53% Buy, 42% Hold, 6% Sell.

Key StatisticsKey Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closingprice. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unlessotherwise specified

Market OverviewPrice $22.05

Target Price --

52 Week Price Range $19.62 to $29.22

Shares Outstanding 653.92 MillionDividend $0.30

Sector OverviewSector Energy

Sector Rating MARKET WEIGHT

Total % of S&P 500 Market Cap. 11.00%

Financial StrengthFinancial Strength Rating LOW

Debt/Capital Ratio 49.9%

Return on Equity 15 5%


NYSE: CHK


policies and heavy use of off-balance-sheet leverage addunnecessary complexity and obscure true financial performance.

In addition, we have concerns about the company's tendency tochange its focus more frequently than other companies in ourcoverage group. We would also like to see management rein in itsseemingly insatiable desire for assets. We believe it would be betterfor the company to simply manage its current asset base and slowdown growth activity, especially while natural gas prices arerelatively low. While it sounds impressive to hold large acreagepositions and have a multitude of drilling opportunities, it alsotakes time and resources to exploit opportunities. Cash paid todayby a highly leveraged company is more costly than cash paid todayby one that has a stronger financial position and lower cost of

it l

financial strength. On a gross basis, including preferred stock, atSeptember 30, 2010, CHK's debt was at its highest level sinceSeptember 30, 2008. Simultaneously, management has beentrumpeting its efforts to reduce debt. We disagree withmanagement's position.

Chesapeake also uses the full-cost accounting method, whichmakes it difficult to compare its metrics with peers. In addition, ithas used long-dated call options on oil and natural gas in order togenerate greater premiums for its near-term hedges. In short, whilethe company maintains that it has ample liquidity, its actionssuggest that it needs more cash than its operations generate. In ourview, management's boasts about the company's low finding costsare also somewhat superficial, as its accounting methodologyll it t d th i f it f ll t l b ff tti i




capital.CHK has by far the weakest balance sheet of any energy

company in our coverage group, which increases risk, particularly

if the economic recovery falters. More importantly, we believe thatCHK's accounting is less than transparent, as the companyregularly enters into joint ventures that engage in off-balance-sheetfinancing, including sale-leaseback transactions and volumetricproduction payments (VPPs) to generate cash without increasingbalance-sheet debt. While management has recently redeemed someof its long-term notes in an effort to clean up its balance sheet, thenotes have largely been replaced with preferred stock. In our view,preferred stock is akin to debt, so we view the move as more of arecapitalization than as an effort to improve the company's

allows it to reduce the size of its full-cost pool by offsetting gainsfrom prior transactions and applying 'drilling carries,' therebylowering unit finding and development costs and depreciation,

depletion and amortization rates.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Chesapeake reported 3Q10 operating earnings available tocommon shareholders of $0.70 per share (excluding a gainassociated with certain equity investments, unrealizedmark-to-market losses, impairment charges and a charge related tothe redemption of certain of the company's senior notes), comparedto $0.75 in 2Q10 and $0.70 in 3Q09. Results exceeded the Streetconsensus of $0.64 and our $0.61 estimate, primarily due to

Growth & Valuation AnalysisGROWTH ANALYSIS

($ in Millions, except per share data) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Revenue 4,665 7,326 7,800 11,629 7,702

COGS 1,675 2,079 2,703 1,316 1,165

Gross Profit 2,990 5,247 5,097 10,313 6,537

SG&A 64 139 243 3,882 2,665

R&D — — — — —

Financial & Risk Analysis

FINANCIAL STRENGTH 2007 2008 2009

Cash ($ in Millions) 1 1,749 307

Working Capital ($ in Millions) -1,365 671 -242

Current Ratio 0.51 1.19 0.91

LT Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 98.0 79.8 112.0

Total Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 98 0 79 8 112 0


NYSE: CHK


better-than-anticipated price realizations, higher-than-expectedproduction, and lower-than-forecast unit production anddepreciation, depletion and amortization (DD&A) costs. Revenues(excluding unrealized but including realized mark-to-market gains)were $2.5 billion, up 5% sequentially and 21% year-over-year.Production in 3Q10 averaged 3.04 billion cubic feet equivalent perday (bcfe/d), up 9% sequentially and 23% year-over-year. Slightlymore than 90% of production was in the form of natural gas, upalmost 1% sequentially but down about 2% year-over-year.Year-over-year growth in natural gas liquids and oil volumes was50%, versus a 20% gain in natural gas volumes.

In 3Q10, CHK's average net production from its MarcellusShale acreage was 171 mmcfe/d, up about 41% sequentially and214% I O t b it d 185 f /d t

billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (bcfe). These figures arebased on trailing 12-month average prices of $4.41 per mcf fornatural gas and $77.33 for crude.

Chesapeake, which once claimed the land grab was over, spent$3.7 billion acquiring natural gas and oil proved and unprovedproperties through the year's first nine months. It has agreed tospend in excess of $1 billion more on acreage subsequent to June30. In conjunction with its 3Q10 earnings release, CHK alsoannounced plans to pay approximately $850 million for 500,000net acres of Appalachian Basin leasehold and option rights. Of thisacreage, roughly 25% will be immediately marked for resale afterclosing; the remainder of the assets will be combined with existingCHK leasehold in a play in which it expects to execute a newi d t j i t t i 1H11 O N b 29 CHK l




214% year-over-year. In October, it averaged 185 mmcfe/d netfrom the play and now has 27 operated rigs. In the HaynesvilleShale, CHK's 3Q10 average daily net production was 742

mmcfe/d, up 34% from 2Q10 and 185% from 3Q09. In October,production averaged about 785 mmcfe/d net from the play, wherethe company is currently operating 34 rigs. During 3Q10, CHK'sdaily net production from the Barnett Shale fell roughly 7%year-over-year but increased 7% sequentially to 566 mmcfe/d. Inthe Fayetteville Shale, CHK's 3Q10 production averaged 392mmcfe/d, up 7% sequentially and 56% year-over-year. In October,volumes averaged 410 mmcfe/d. CHK is currently drilling itsFayetteville acreage with eight operated rigs.

In 3Q10, CHK's net proved reserves grew by 4.5% to 16.2

industry joint venture in 1H11. On November 29, CHK alsoagreed to spend another $200 million to purchase 23,180 acres of net oil and natural gas leasehold in the McMullen County area of

the Eagle Ford Shale from Antares Energy Limited. Interestingly,on the same day Marathon Oil announced plans to acquire EagleFord acreage in nearby Wilson and Atascosa counties for asignificantly lower price. We also learned during CHK's 3Q10conference call that management 'finally' acquired a relativelysmall acreage position in the Williston Basin - around 100,000acres. CHK's CEO, Aubrey McClendon has mentioned on severaloccasions that the Williston Basin was the one in the U.S. thatCHK had regrettably missed. While it is unlikely to increase itsposition to a large enough size to make it a JV, we are somewhat

Peer & Industry AnalysisThe graphics in this section are designed toallow investors to compare CHK versus itsindustry peers, the broader sector, and themarket as a whole, as defined by the ArgusUniverse of Coverage.

• The scatterplot shows how CHK stacks upversus its peers on two keycharacteristics: long-term growth andvalue In general companies in the lower

Growth

30

40

APC APC APC APC APC

P/E

CHK vs.Market

CHK vs.Sector

More Value More Growth

Price/Sales

CHK


NYSE: CHK


relieved to hear that CHK has no longer missed out on this prolificunconventional oil play. On a more serious note, we would preferto see CHK hold a less diversified acreage position. We do notthink it needs to have a stake in all the major plays. We wouldprefer greater focus, and a smaller amount of capital tied up inpositions that won't be exploited for a considerable period. As withequity investing, we believe more focused portfolios shouldoutperform those that are too diversified. Plus, having an interest inso many plays requires greater spending and can take more of management's time.

In general, management's typical plan is to sell off minoritypositions in some of its new oil plays to recover much, if not all, of its initial leasehold investment. As with other recent deals, weanticipate that CHK will receive only a portion of the total

We are lowering our 2010 EPS forecast to $2.78 from $2.95and our 2011 estimate to $2.55 from $2.75. The decreases arelargely associated with downward revisions to our near-termcommodity price forecast, partially mitigated by increases to ourproduction outlook. Unless we have another cold winter, theamount of gas in storage should remain high. We also do not see anear-term slowdown in drilling activity. Our forecast that dailyproduction will average 2.8 bcfe/d in 2010, with an increase to 3.3bcfe/d in 2011, is unchanged. In its latest guidance, managementprojected that production would grow another 18% in 2012(versus 12% previously). While CHK is focusing a little less on its'Big 6' shale plays, its efforts to grow liquids volumes should morethan offset any shortfall. Our estimates are largely in line with themidpoint of management's guidance The biggest change to the




anticipate that CHK will receive only a portion of the totalconsideration in the form of upfront cash payments. The balancewill be received in the form of drilling carries over time - the

drilling carries, which reduce CHK's capex burden, are alsobeneficial from a tax perspective. The desire to acquire additionalacreage is part of management's desire to increase the importanceof liquids in the company's overall production profile. Currently,management is pursuing a joint venture for its Niobrara acreage,which it hopes to announce early next year. Another JV for anunnamed play is in the plans for later next year.

While we have been impressed with CHK's ability to find JVpartners, our level of concern about this strategy is increasing. Webelieve most, if not all, of the major parties interested in such deals

have already made them. While repeat customers are not out of thequestion, we think the available pool of participants is dwindling.Fortunately, for CHK, it has been able to find partners willing topay relatively high prices for access to acreage (and knowledge thathopefully can be applied to other plays outside the U.S.). For manynational oil companies, capital costs are viewed differently thanthey are in the U.S. CHK has benefited from this trend. In addition,CHK cedes a certain amount of operational control by having a JVpartner. Such JV activity can also keep activity levels somewhatartificially high, as they result in higher levels of capital being

midpoint of management s guidance. The biggest change to thecompany's production profile is its effort to make its productionmore liquids-rich; liquids production is expected to increase from

49 mboe/d currently to 200 mboe/d by 2015. Management plans toaccelerate drilling of liquids-rich plays until the end of 2012, whenthe company's drilling capital expenditures are to be balancedapproximately 50/50 between natural gas and liquids.

At the October 13 analyst meeting, management expressed thedimmest view of the natural gas market that we've ever heard fromCHK. Mr. McClendon said that it would be 'very hard to makemoney in natural gas' over the next few years. We agree, as we areincreasingly concerned that natural gas supply in North Americawill continue to outpace demand. We think it is possible that U.S.

natural gas prices could remain in the $3-$5 range for aconsiderable period - based on information presented at the analystmeeting, the Marcellus is the only play in CHK's natural gas shaleportfolio that provides at least a 10% return on a PV10 basis atevery price within that range. In our view, the industry currentlyfaces a supply glut that is unlikely to dissipate in the near tomedium term. We think legislation increasing the amount of natural gas used in power generation or subsidizing greatertransportation fuel use is needed in order to meaningfully increasedemand. Many companies have been drilling at relatively high


NYSE: CHK


uses commodity price and financial risk management instrumentsto mitigate our exposure to price fluctuations in oil and natural gasand interest rates.' The words 'from time to time' were deletedbeginning in 2008. We understand that the hedging activity hasboosted realizations.

What we're less sure about is whether investors reallyunderstand what they're getting when they buy shares of CHK.Historically, CHK has typically been perceived as a near pure playon natural gas production. We don't think that's the case anylonger. First, there's the operational shift to more liquidsproduction. If that were the only change, we would hardly bat aneye. However, CHK has also ramped up hedging activity. While thehedges are supported by production, the level and type of hedgingactivity is well above that of any company in CHK's peer group

In our view, the biggest advantage to hedges is that they providesome certainty in an uncertain world. However, we think that viewonly prevails in a relatively short time frame. We believe thatCHK's option activity provides further support for our view that itneeds more cash to support its activity than its operations cangenerate, despite management's contention that the company hasample liquidity.

Chesapeake's future growth prospects are largely driven by itspositions in unconventional natural gas shale and liquids plays-Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett, Fayetteville, Bossier, GraniteWash, Eagle Ford, Anadarko Basin, Permian Basin and RockyMountains. As of October 13, it disclosed holdings of 5.6 millionnet acres in unconventional fields (up from 5.2 million at June 30).Its total risked unbooked resource base is 99 3 tcfe up from 95 2




activity is well above that of any company in CHK s peer group.Moreover, as discussed above, the company is aggressivelyacquiring acreage and then forming joint ventures for its larger

holdings to offset acquisition costs. Again, while we are not againstthe idea of companies making money and generating cash flow, wequestion whether investors are fully aware of the impact on CHK'sbusiness. In short, we no longer view CHK as the best 'pure play'on natural gas. Its business model has changed. We can make theargument that it's not just an independent E&P company either.Instead, it now seems to be a combination of an E&P company anda financial entity. Perhaps even a hedge fund of a sort. At the sametime, our concerns about earnings quality have increased.

As discussed in more detail in our note of October 15, we

recently spent time reviewing footnotes from CHK's 10-Ks over thepast six years. We noted several items that raise concerns,including: (1) a shift to longer depreciable lives; (2) a change in thetreatment of income associated with certain aspects of someproperty sales; and (3) a possible change in the treatment of cashflows from derivative instruments.

As stated in prior notes, we also have concerns about theinclusion in CHK's hedging policy of long-dated call options on oiland natural gas to generate greater premiums for its near-termhedges and selling oil price volatility to enhance gas prices. CHK's

Its total risked, unbooked resource base is 99.3 tcfe, up from 95.2tcfe previously. While it is shifting more activity to more lucrativeliquids plays, we continue to believe that the company is spending

too aggressively in the current environment. While we understandthat in some cases, such as when leases include held-by-production(HBP) provisions, drilling must be more aggressive than may bewarranted by current prices, we think that companies would bebetter served by scaling back activity when prices are lower. Thepotential benefits of such actions would be twofold: (1) they wouldresult in lower supply; and (2) they would likely increase free cashflow. Through the first half of the year, CHK's capitalexpenditures, including acquisitions and proceeds from asset sales,exceeded operating cash flow by about $1.1 billion. In fact, the

company has not been free cash flow-positive in any year reflectedin our model, which goes back to 2001. We would prefer to seemore emphasis on free cash flow generation and less on productiongrowth. This issue is not solely Chesapeake's. It seems to beendemic to the industry; it is also helped by the willingness of banks and investors to provide these companies with the liquiditythey need to continue drilling even when the cash flow it generatesdoes not support the activity level. Independent E&P companies, inparticular, often act as if the most important characteristic they canexhibit is production growth. Often, share prices do react positively


NYSE: CHK


volumes rather than cash. S&P rates Chesapeake's long-term debtas BB. Based on recent management comments, we believe therating agencies share our view of the VPPs. Management disagrees,as it views the VPPs as asset sales. Alternatively, we think the VPPshave some similarities to operating leases, which we also believerepresent off balance sheet debt. The intent of the company's latest

financial plan is to have its debt upgraded to investment-gradestatus. One of management's primary means of achieving this goalappears to be a focus on redeeming senior notes and replacing themwith convertible preferred debt. Given that the dividends on thepreferred are cumulative, we classify them as debt and view thetransactions as more akin to a recapitalization.

Our concerns about CHK's weak financial position remainhigh; we believe that many of its financing practices support our

company's accounting appear to be shared, as one firm that ratescompanies on accounting and governance, Audit Integrity, givesCHK an 'Aggressive' rating.

Counting leasehold acquisition costs and net of joint venturedrilling carries and asset sales, we estimate that CHK's capex willbe about $5.0 billion in 2010, down from roughly $6.0 billion in

2009. Chesapeake reassesses its budget on a monthly basis, soguidance can change at any time. Relative to last year, a good partof the decrease is related to the drilling carries CHK will earn onthe properties it has joint-ventured as well as anticipated proceedsfrom future joint ventures.

The company does not have any long-term debt due before2013, and it is not currently in danger of failing to meet its debtcovenants At September 30 the company had $609 million of cash




high; we believe that many of its financing practices support ourview. As discussed above, we think that CHK uses long-dated stockoptions primarily because it needs to accelerate the receipt of cash.

Current spot prices for natural gas are not high enough to supportspending, so the company uses long-dated options to generate morenear-term cash. Similarly, the VPPs are used to generate cashproceeds today for production that will not be supplied for severalyears (five to 15 years, depending on the VPP). Other tools are the

JV structures CHK forms once it accumulates sufficiently largepositions in high-demand resource plays.

Our financial strength rating of Low also reflects our concernsabout the company's earnings quality. We have noted several 10-Kfootnote changes over the past six years, including the three

discussed in our October 15 note that could be construed asattempts to make the company's reported income appear betterthan it would have been absent such changes. In addition, wewould greatly prefer to see the company use the successful-effortsrather than the full-cost accounting method. Under successfulefforts, companies report gains and losses on asset sales on theirincome statement. They also record exploration expense. Instead,CHK's gains from its asset sales are netted against its full-cost pool.Based on the JVs it has entered to date, CHK will ultimately realize$12.8 billion in total proceeds - including drilling carries. Most

covenants. At September 30, the company had $609 million of cashon hand and $13.9 billion of net long-term debt, up from $12.5billion at the end of 4Q09. It also had about $1.3 billion and $50

million of additional borrowing capacity under its Corporate andMidstream revolving bank credit facilities, respectively.

CHK pays a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, or $0.30annually, for a yield of about 1.4%. Due to the company'saggressive spending pattern this year, we no longer anticipatedividend increases in 2010 or 2011.

MANAGEMENT & RISKS

Aubrey McClendon has served as the company's chairman andCEO since 1989 and is one of its cofounders. His five-yearemployment agreement requires him to hold shares with aninvestment value equal to 500% of the total of his annual salaryand cash bonuses. This percentage was reduced to 200% in 2009but reverted to 500% in 2010. Mr. McClendon also is part of awell participation plan, which we think is inappropriate for acompany of CHK's size and not in the best interests of shareholders.

As discussed in the Financial Strength section above, we areconcerned that the company's true financial position is at leastpartly obfuscated by its accounting methods and financial

l d b h


NYSE: CHK


cyclical stocks such as CHK is when they are trading at the top of their valuation ranges, as higher ratios often foreshadow strongerresults ahead. Given our concerns, we do not see such positiveoutcomes in CHK's near-term future.

On November 29, SELL-rated CHK closed at $22.05, up $0.06.




METHODOLOGY & DISCLAIMERS

NYSE: CHK

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p y, q y p

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g

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April 15, 2011 ! Issue 29 By: Bill Powerswww.powersenergyinvestor.com

The Fayetteville Shale Peaks

While no one can ever be sure a petroleum from Southwestern Energy in 2002 while drilling

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/www.powersenergyinvestor.com

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/www.powersenergyinvestor.com



W e o o e c eve be su e pe o eu

producing area has reached its peak production

until months or even years after the peak hasoccurred, there is strong evidence that the

Fayetteville shale play has reached peak

production. Based on information made available

by the play’s leader, Model Portfolio member

Southwestern Energy, and the Arkansas Oil and

Gas Commission, it appears that the meteoric

production growth from America’s third largest

shale play is a thing of the past. More

importantly, since the Fayetteville shale of central

Arkansas was one of the only areas with

production growth last year, its peaking will

undoubtedly result in a tightening of the North

A i t l k t D t th

o Sou wes e e gy 00 w e d g

in a sandstone formation that was unexpectedly

productive. This discovery became known to thecompany as the “Weddington Incongruity” and is

marked on the map below. The technical staff at

SWN eventually determined much of the excess

gas production from the sandstone reservoir had

migrated up from the Fayetteville shale directly

below. Given the many geological similarities

between the Barnett shale of the Ft. Worth Basin

and the Fayetteville, SWN snapped up 343,000 net

acres for $11 million in 2003. The below graphic

clearly displays the position of both the Barnett

and Fayetteville shales along the Ouachita Thrust

belt:

Though the Fayetteville has been producing for

over six years, there are still a couple of important

misconceptions about the play. As I discussed in

past issues, possibly the biggest misconception

about shale plays is that all of the acres in a play

will be productive. Most energy observersunderestimate importance of a trap system needed

to create the required pressure and geological

setting for shale gas production. For example, the

Ouachita Thrust belt, which is part of a complex

geological trap in Fort Worth, runs between the

While production from the Fayetteville exists

outside of the core area, wells on average become

less and less productive the further they are drilled

outside of the core area.

Another significant misconception surrounding theFayetteville is the size of the expected ultimate

recovery (EUR) per well. On its Q2 2011

earnings conference call, Chesapeake Energy’s

(NYSE:CHK) CEO Aubrey McClendon

announced that it had moved up its EUR per



g g p W ,

cities of Fort Worth and Dallas. Though the

Barnett shale lies directly underneath both cities,Fort Worth has a trap system and substantial

production from the Barnett, while Dallas has

none. A similar situation exists in the Fayetteville

shale. The Fayetteville shale exists throughout a

large swath of land in the northern half of

Arkansas but only a relatively small percentage of

the land is productive. With 3,110 wells drilled in

the play to date, a distinct core area has developed

in the play in northern Conway and southern Van

Buren Counties (Source: Arkansas Oil and Gas

Commission). A secondary core area has

developed in White County. Below is a graphical

d i ti f th d illi t d t i th F tt ill

p U p

Fayetteville well from 2.4 billion cubic feet (bcf)

to 2.6 bcf. (Chesapeake is in the process of sellingits Fayetteville assets to BHP Billiton for $4.5

billion.) To put into perspective how ridiculous

CHK’s claim of 2.6 bcf is, consider the following:

Of the company’s 742 operated wells completed in

the Fayetteville shale over the past five years, only

66 (9 percent) have produced more than 1 bcf and

none have produced more than 1.7 bcf. CHK’s

average Fayetteville well has produced only 541

million cubic feet (mmcf). On its Q4 2010

earnings conference call, Southwestern Energy

upped its EUR for its proven undeveloped drilling

locations from 2.2 bcf per well at the end of 2009

t 2 4 b f ll t th d f 2010 Th thi d

• Only 11 wells of the 3,110 wells drilled into

the Fayetteville since 2005 have produced

more than 2 bcf. In other words, slightly

more than a third of one percent of all wells

to date have produced more than 2 bcf.

• 79 wells (2.5 percent) have produced more

than 1.5 bcf

• 1,552 wells (49.9 percent) have produced less

than 500 mmcf of gas.

of the most important natural gas fields in the

country.

So what is this table telling us about EURs in the

Fayetteville shale? First, based on the above

information, there is little doubt that CHK andSWN have grossly overstated their EUR per well.

For example, the 594 wells drilled between 2005

and 2007 are unlikely to ever produce much more

than 1 bcf each. While I do not have access to the

actual decline curves for these wells there is no



g

Since completion technology has changed since

2005, when the start of large-scale development of

the Fayetteville began, I believe it would be quite

helpful to review the performance of the

Fayetteville wells by year of first production:

Year of 1st

Production Number of

Wells*Cumulative

Average

Production per

Well

2005 48 150 mmcf

2006 115 591 mmcf

actual decline curves for these wells, there is no

doubt that Fayetteville operators are using

unrealistic decline curves that include transient

flow (the gush of gas occurring immediately after

a well is put on production which should not be

included in proper analysis) and b-factors that are

unrealistically high. For more information on b-

factor please see Issue 20 which was published on

December 1, 2010.

To further distort projected EURs, operators in the

Fayetteville are using unrealistic terminal decline

curves that extend the life of wells out past 50

years. Based on data that is now coming out of

the Barnett, there is simply no evidence to support

presentation on the company’s website, SWN

increased the average Fayetteville lateral from

3,301 feet in Q1 2008 to 3,874 feet in Q1 2009

(17% increase) and to 4,348 feet in Q1 2010 (32%

increase over Q1 2008). Such a large increase in

average lateral well length will certainly increaserecoveries in the early years but may not lead

increased ultimate recoveries since longer laterals

have greater potential to die early deaths due to

water incursion. While it is still too early to draw

many conclusions about EURs for 2008 and 2009

Johnson

Franklin

Pope



y

wells, a reasonable case can be made for EURs of

1.3 bcf for these wells, but more data will beneeded.

In addition to lower EURs per well than what is

currently estimated by participants in the play, the

EUR for the entire Fayetteville shale play is likely

far smaller than is widely believed. Looking back

at a presentation that was given by SWN in

November 2008, we are provided with another

example of the shrinkage of a shale play down into

relatively small core area. As you can see from

the adjacent graphic, in the fall of 2008, SWN was

conducting three pilot programs in Franklin

produced only 235 mmcf. Given the weak results

from these three counties so far, there is a strong

likelihood that the majority of these three counties

are not prospective for production from the

Fayetteville shale. Therefore, excluding Franklin,

Johnson and Pope counties from future

development, the total number of acres that are

Fayetteville, America’s third

largest shale play, is only 10

tcf, an enormous field by

nearly every metric, it would

be extremely difficult to see

how we have a 100 year supply of natural gas or

approximately 2,500 tcf of

recoverable gas.]

I expect 2010 to be the year



Source: Southwestern Energy

I expect 2010 to be the year

of peak production in the

Fayetteville for two very

simple reasons. First,

substantially fewer wells are

likely to be drilled in 2011

than in any of the three

previous years and the play’s

high well decline rates will

result in a fall off in 2011

production. The management

team of play leader SWN has

repeatedly stated it will drill approximately 100

few wells in 2011 than it did in 2010. Prior to the

Petrohawk’s sale of its Fayetteville assets, the

strong indication that production in the

Fayetteville has reached a peak.

Th h F ill ll i lik l

approximately 150,000 net acres in the

Fayetteville and is likely to have spent well over

$1 billion on acreage alone. To build HK’s

gathering system in the Fayetteville and drill its

operated wells, the company invested an estimated

$500 million. All told, Petrohawk easily spent$1.5 billion to acquire and develop its Fayetteville

acreage. HK is likely to have received between

$100 and $200 million in cash flow from its

Fayetteville properties and exited the play with a

sale to ExxonMobil for $650 million. In less than

prices will skyrocket. All the pieces are in place

for substantially higher natural gas prices,

however Mr. Market will recognize the incredibly

strong fundamentals of the natural gas market only

when he is ready and not a second earlier.

Model Portfolio

Despite crude prices briefly reaching $110 per

barrel in recent weeks and continued turmoil in the

iddl i h b h l f k



five years, HK destroyed approximately $700

million of shareholder capital in the Fayetteville.[It should be noted that HK was an early mover

into the Haynesville and was able to establish a

substantial beachhead in the play, which has

allowed HK to drill many of the best wells in the

Haynesville.] On the other hand, it appears that

Southwestern’s low-cost early entry into the

Fayetteville, which allowed them to tie-up the bestacreage and control a huge portion of the gathering

system, has created substantial shareholder value.

When gas prices rise to respectable levels (to at

least the low double-digits), which they will likely

do later this year, SWN will have a dominate

iti i hi hl fit bl l I th

Middle East, it has been a rough couple of weeks

for the Model Portfolio. It seems as though theenergy sector trades more in line with consumer

confidence than on fundamentals. With the

Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan

consumer sentiment index dropping from a

reading of 77.5 in February to 66.5 in March (14%

drop) in only four weeks, it has become

increasingly evident that investors have becomeless comfortable with their consumption patterns

and energy investments. Abandoning energy

investments, or investments in any hard asset, in

today’s era of rampant dollar depreciation is an

unwise choice. One cannot hide in bonds with

today’s inflation rate well over the coupon rate of

double its existing reserve base through the

development of its project inventory in the next

five years. However the market place either does

not believe that the company will be able execute

on its inventory of CO2 floods despite DNR’s

growing tertiary production at 33% compoundedannually over the last 11 years or the market does

not believe oil prices can stay at current levels. I

am strongly of the opinion that DNR will be able

to execute on its strategy and that oil prices are

headed higher. With unrest in several of the

pumping (injecting sand and water into a

fracture system), natural gas would have to rise

to more than $15 per mcf to get operators to

switch from oil directed drilling to natural gas

directed drilling. Even at $15 per mcf, natural

gas only generates the same amount of revenue ona BTU basis as $90 oil. However, since natural

gas wells are cheaper to operate than oil wells, $15

per mcf may be enough to get operators to start

drilling gas wells. As I discussed in my February

1, 2011 article entitle “Natural Gas vs. Oil vs.



world’s biggest oil exporters showing no sign of

diminishing and the US dollar depreciating by theday, oil prices are likely to continue to head higher

irrespective of the accelerating economic

slowdown in the West.

While I am bullish on the price of oil, I remain

wildly bullish on the price of natural gas. The

brutal 3-year bear market is nearly over. After thismorning’s (4/14) inventory injection of only 28

bcf versus expectations of a 34 bcf injection, the

market is likely to soon realize the unsustainability

of natural gas prices in the single digits. Gas

storage is now even with the five year average and

7 9% b l l t ’ l l M i t tl

Coal”, there is substantial historical evidence that

today’s natural gas to oil relationship of nearly26:1 is unsustainable. Federal Reserve Bank of

Dallas researchers Stephen Brown and Mine Yucel

wrote an outstanding paper published in 2007

entitled “What Drives Natural Gas Prices” which

provides further proof that if oil and natural gas

prices disconnect on a BTU-parity basis, operators

will eventually substantially reduce drilling for thelower priced commodity. With natural gas also

below the coal floor, the price at which utilities

will switch from coal to natural gas, expect to see

demand for natural gas continue to rise as supplies

fall.

$6.00 per share and issuance of a $143 million

convertible note with a 3.75% coupon. With

approximately $450 million in cash in the bank

and a market leading position in the fast growing

lithium-ion battery business for grid management

and hybrid-electric vehicles, I think the market hasover-reacted to the company’s growing pains.

After yesterday’s (4/13) 7 million barrel drop in

U.S. gasoline inventories, which is certain to push

prices close to $5 per gallon by summer, the

market for electric vehicles is quickly gaining

With millions of highly prospective acres in

Columbia and Peru, high net oil production, the

potential to earn more than $3.00 per share in

2011 if oil prices remain over $100 per barrel and

a very reasonable value, I consider PMG an

excellent investment candidate.

Spartan Exploration (TSX:SPE): On April 1st

the company announced that has agreed to be

acquired by a senior publicly traded company but

did not name the entity. Shareholder will receive



momentum. I am also very bullish on A123’s

prospects for its grid management business andconsider the company and excellent investment

candidate.

Advantage Oil and Gas (TSX:AAV): The

company recently announced that it has created a

62% owned publicly traded subsidiary into which

it has place its oil producing assets. The name of the new company is Longview Oil Corporation

and it will begin life with approximately 6,220

barrels of oil production per day. AAV

management has entered into a technical services

arrangement with Longview. I continue to be very

i d ith t t d th

for $4.00 in cash and one share of a new company

(Explorco) that will be spun off to existingshareholders containing approximately 850 bopd

of Cardium oil production. It appears that the

Explorco will be mostly staffed by members of

Spartan’s management team. While SPE has been

a big winner for the Model Portfolio since its

inclusion in November 2010, I will need more

information to determine if the Explorco is willremain in the Model Portfolio.

Bill Powers

Editor, Powers Energy Investor





Commonly Used Abbreviations

bbl Barrel bbl/d Barrels per day

boe Barrels of oil equivalent

SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION

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Online Access: $299Includes: Single user online access for 12 months

























Wealth Management Research 17 March 2011

• The recent price strength in US natural gas could quickly runout of steam.

• Inventory overhang of drilled but uncompleted wells remainselevated, providing near-term upside to supply.

Giovanni Staunovo, strategist, UBS AG

Dominic Schnider, analyst, UBS AG

Market data and forecasts (USD/mmbtu)Active futures 4.00

3M futures 4.13

Volatility 38%

3M forecast Sideways 3.60-5.0012M forecast Bullish 4.80



, p g p pp y

• Due to the regional character of natural gas markets, US nat-

ural gas prices should largely be unaffected by political andsocial unrest in North Africa and the Middle East as well asthe consequences of the earthquake in Japan.

Changing patterns in gas-drilling activity not yet a threatOver the past 3 months the US gas market has seen a slight declinein gas rigs, but the more important trend is the migration from driergas plays. Gas directed rig counts have fallen to 899 rigs in February2011 from the peak of 992 in August 2010 as reported by Baker

Hughes. Drilling activity in liquid-rich plays has gained more impor-tance in recent months. Higher oil prices are one reason. These sup-ported the shift towards more oil drilling activities, thereby pullingrigs meant for dry gas production. In our view, this trend will reducenet gas supply additions, but should not be significant in the nearterm. We continue to believe that the market is still digesting ex-cessive supply.

Gradual price rise only in late 2011With ample gas supply over the coming quarters and the inability of

Source: Bloomberg, UBS WMR; Exchange: NYMEX

US natural gas priceValues in USD/mmbtu

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Natural Gas: Active futures contract 55-Day Moving Avg.

200-Day Moving Avg.

Source: Bloomberg, UBS WMR

Active oil and gas rig count in the USNumber of rigs, weekly figures

1'200

1'400

Terms and Abbreviations

Term / Abbreviation Description / Definition Term / Abbreviation Description / DefinitionBackwardation A situation when spot prices are above future

pricesCBOT Chicago Board of Trade

CFTC Commodity Futures Trading Commission COMEX Commodities Exchange (New York)

Contango A situation when spot prices are below future

prices

CRB Index Commodities Research Bureau Index

DJ AIG Index Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index D.O.E Department of Energy

E.I.A Energy information Administration Excess Return The most common type of return on the

commodity indices which is defined as: Excess

return = spot return + return on rolling the

futures

GSCI Goldman Sachs Commodity Index I.E.A International Energy Agency

LME London Metal Exchange MGMI Index Metallgesellschaft Metals Index

Natural gas



LME London Metal Exchange MGMI Index Metallgesellschaft Metals Index

Natural Gas HB Natural Gas Henry Hub NYBOT New York Board of Trade

NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange OPEC Organization Petroleum Exporting CountriesRICI Rogers International Commodity Index U.S.D.A United States Department of Agriculture

USc/lb USc per Pound USD/BBL USD per Barrel

USD/GL USD per Gallon USD/MMBtu USD per 1 million British Thermal Unit

USD/MT USD per Metric Ton USD/oz USD per oz, (1 oz = 31.10 grams)

WTI Crude Oil West Texas International Crude Oil

Global Disclaimer

Wealth Management Research is published by Wealth Management & Swiss Bank and Wealth Management Americas, Business Divisionsof UBS AG (UBS) or an affiliate thereof. In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA. This publication is for your information onlyand is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. The analysis containedherein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Certain services and products

are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be offered worldwide on an unrestricted basis and/or may not be eligible for sale to all investors.All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but norepresentation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosures relating to UBS and itsaffiliates). All information and opinions as well as any prices indicated are current as of the date of this report, and are subject to changewithout notice. Opinions expressed herein may differ or be contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBS as aresult of using different assumptions and/or criteria. At any time UBS AG and other companies in the UBS group (or employees thereof)may have a long or short position, or deal as principal or agent, in relevant securities or provide advisory or other services to the issuerof relevant securities or to a company connected with an issuer. Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in thesecurities is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be difficult to quantify.UBS relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS, into other areas, units,divisions or affiliates of UBS. Futures and options trading is considered risky. Past performance of an investment is no guarantee for itsfuture performance Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on realization you may receive back less

Natural gas



future performance. Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on realization you may receive back lessthan you invested or may be required to pay more. Changes in FX rates may have an adverse effect on the price, value or income of

an investment. We are of necessity unable to take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of ourindividual clients and we would recommend that you take financial and/or tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investingin any of the products mentioned herein. This document may not be reproduced or copies circulated without prior authority of UBS or asubsidiary of UBS. UBS expressly prohibits the distribution and transfer of this document to third parties for any reason. UBS will not beliable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document. This report is for distributiononly under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law.Australia: Distributed by UBS Wealth Management Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No. 231127), ChifleyTower, 2 Chifley Square, Sydney, New South Wales, NSW 2000. Austria: This publication is not intended to constitute a public offer ora comparable solicitation under Austrian law and will only be used under circumstances which will not be equivalent to a public offeringof securities in Austria. The document may only be used by the direct recipient of this information and may under no circumstances bepassed on to any other investor. Bahamas: This publication is distributed to private clients of UBS (Bahamas) Ltd and is not intendedfor distribution to persons designated as a Bahamian citizen or resident under the Bahamas Exchange Control Regulations. Canada: InCanada, this publication is distributed to clients of UBS Wealth Management Canada by UBS Investment Management Canada Inc.. Dubai:

Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC, is intended for professional clients only and is not for onward distributionwithin the United Arab Emirates. France: This publication is distributed by UBS (France) S.A., French "société anonyme" with share capitalof € 125.726.944, 69, boulevard Haussmann F-75008 Paris, R.C.S. Paris B 421 255 670, to its clients and prospects. UBS (France) S.A. is aprovider of investment services duly authorized according to the terms of the "Code Monétaire et Financier", regulated by French bankingand financial authorities as the "Banque de France" and the "Autorité des Marchés Financiers". Germany: The issuer under German Lawis UBS Deutschland AG, Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2-4, 60306 Frankfurt am Main. UBS Deutschland AG is authorized and regulated by the"Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht". Hong Kong: This publication is distributed to clients of UBS AG Hong Kong Branch byUBS AG Hong Kong Branch, a licensed bank under the Hong Kong Banking Ordinance and a registered institution under the Securities andFutures Ordinance. Indonesia: This research or publication is not intended and not prepared for purposes of public offering of securitiesunder the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Securities mentioned in this material have not been, and willnot be, registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and Regulations. Italy: This publication is distributed to the clients of UBS(Italia) S.p.A., via del vecchio politecnico 3, Milano, an Italian bank duly authorized by Bank of Italy to the provision of financial services







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The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Economics Panel

Early Reserve Estimates

f U S U ti l Pl

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Economics PanelThe Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Economics Panel

Early Reserve EstimatesEarly Reserve Estimates

f U S U ti l Plf U S U ti l Pl



for U.S. Unconventional Playsfor U.S. Unconventional Playsfor U.S. Unconventional Plays

Scott Rees

Developing Unconventional Gas (The Original)

Hart Energy Publishing

Fort Worth

April 19, 2011

Developing Unconventional Gas (The Original)Developing Unconventional Gas (The Original)

Hart Energy PublishingHart Energy Publishing

Fort WorthFort Worth

April 19, 2011April 19, 2011

Barnett Shale

Historical Gas Production

Barnett Shale


Gas

Production

Ri

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

a

s P r o d u c t i o n

( B C F D )

150

200

250

300

R i g

C o u n t



Rig

Count

0.0

1.0

2.0

Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11

D a i l y G a

0

50

100



• How much oil and/or gas are wells going tomake, and

• Can we make $ drilling wells?

• How much oil and/or gas are wells going tomake, and

• Can we make $ drilling wells?

Shale Plays

Factors Influencing Well Recovery and Economics

Shale Plays

Factors Influencing Well Recovery and Economics

OOIP

OOIP

OGIP

OGIP

TOC

TOC

Free Gas vs.Adsorbed Gas

Free Gas vs.Adsorbed Gas

Natural

F t

Natural

F t

Hydraulic

F t

Hydraulic

F tR

R

Vertical vs. Lateral

Vertical vs. LateralRecovery per Incr.Lateral Foot

Recovery per Incr.Lateral Foot

Prices

Prices

Costs

Costs



Time

R a t e

1 Bcf

3 Bcf

2 Bcf TemperatureTemperature

Porosity vs. TOCPorosity vs. TOC

PorosityPorosity

PressurePressure

Fluid AnalysisFluid Analysis

FractureFracture FractureFractureRoRo

Permeability -Natural

Permeability -Natural

Permeability -

Induced

Permeability -

Induced

Well SpacingWell SpacingRecovery

Factor

RecoveryFactor

Year P25 Mean P50 P75 Avg. Lateral Length (Feet)

2002 and Earlier 1,814 1,533 1,363 743 1,297

2003 2,729 1,999 1,553 847 1,414

2004 2,775 2,172 1,812 1,005 1,885

2005 3,074 2,238 1,853 1,054 2,3912006 3,011 2,217 1,968 1,004 2,921

2007 3,591 2,704 2,452 1,462 2,930

Gas EUR (MMCF)

Barnett Shale

Variation in Well Performance

Barnett Shale


Yearly Gas Ultimate Distribution

Barnett Shale Tier 1 Area

6 000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

U

l t i m a t e R e c o v e r y ( M M C F )

`

Completion Improvements

Lateral Length



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Greater Than (Percent)

G a s E s t i m a t e d U

2002 and Earlier 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

No. of Fracs

Type of Proppant

Barnett Shale


Barnett Shale


8

10

12

14

16

18

d U l t i m a t e R e c o v e r y ( B C F )

Year % in Core

2007 67

2008 80

2009 86

2010 88

Across Barnett

Core & Non-core



0

2

4

6

8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


G a s E s t i m a t e d

Pre 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010

10,000

100,000

G

a s ( M C F / M o n t h )

60

80

100

120

W el l C o u

n t

Barnett Shale


Barnett Shale


• Wide range of performance trends for

wells in close proximity

• EURs range from 0.3 Bcf to 3.6 Bcf

– Average EUR is 1.5 Bcf

• There may not be a 'typical' well

Barnett Shale

Northeast Wise County

A f 107 ll



100

1,000

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Time (Months)

G r o s s G

0

20

40

nAverage of 107 wells

Projection of Average Production

Well Count

2.0

3.0

as

P r o d u c t i o n ( B C F D )

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

W e l l C o u n t

Fayetteville Shale


Fayetteville Shale


Gas

Production

W ll



0.0

1.0

Jul 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 J un 10

D a i l y G a s

0

50 0

1,000

1,500

Well

Count

Fayetteville Shale


Fayetteville Shale


6

8

10

12

ed

U l t i m a t e R e c o v e r y ( B C F )

8464,3291.12.72.94.82010

8343,9380.92.42.64.52009

6823,2180.62.12.24.02008

4112,4220.41.41.52.82007

1102,0740.41.11.22.32006

596060.00.10.20.6Pre 2006

Count(Feet)P90P50MeanP10Year

Average Lateral

LengthGas EUR (BCF)



0

2

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


G a s E s t i m a t e d

Pre 2 006 2 006 2 007 20 08 20 09 20 10



6

8

10

12

14

Es

t i m a t e d U l t i m a t e R e c o v e r y ( B C F E )

2920.42.32.75.72010

940.11.41.83.62009

640.00.10.41.0Pre 2009

CountP90P50MeanP10Year

Gas Equivalent EUR (BCFE)

Eagle Ford Shale


Eagle Ford Shale




0

2

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


G a s E q u i v a l e n t

Pre 2009 2009 2010

Bakken Shale

Historical Oil Production

Bakken Shale

Historical Oil Production

Total Oil

Production

150

200

250

300

350

Oil P r o d u c t i o n ( M B O P D )

2 000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

W

e l l C o u n t



Well Count

North Dakota

Oil Production

0

50

100

Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11

D a i l y O i l

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000 W

Shale Gas

Evaluation Considerations

Shale Gas

Evaluation Considerations• Shale plays may require considerable initial capital expenditures to

allow commercial access and determine economic feasibility.

• Geoscience costs tend to be very large early in shale plays:

Seismic in areas without recent petroleum exploration activity Coring and laboratory analysis

• Learning curve – earliest wells in new play may deliver poor results asdrilling and completion technology is perfected.

General shale play economics improve over time due to:



• General shale play economics improve over time due to: More effective drilling and completion techniques

Better understanding of reservoir and identification of "sweet spots"

• Long-term investment

Shale gas plays have very large in-place volumes and very large drillinglocation inventories that may take decades to realize.

Profound WisdomProfound Wisdom

Whether applied to war or to unconventional gas …

As we know, there are the KNOWN KNOWNS; there are things we

know we know.

We also know there are the KNOWN UNKNOWNS; that is to say,

we know there are some things we do not know.

But there are also UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS; the ones we don’t

know we don’t know



know we don t know.

Donald Rumsfeld

Winner of Gobbledygook Award

by Plain English Institute

Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc.Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc.

Because there is a difference.Because there is a difference.

DallasThanksgiving Tower

1601 Elm Street

Suite 4500

Dallas, Texas 75201

214-969-5401

DallasThanksgiving Tower

1601 Elm Street

Suite 4500

Dallas, Texas 75201

214-969-5401

H tHouston



[email protected]

www.netherlandsewell.com

Houston4 Houston Center

1221 Lamar

Suite 1200

Houston, Texas 77010

713-654-4950

Houston4 Houston Center

1221 Lamar

Suite 1200

Houston, Texas 77010

713-654-4950



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