NZ’s Tenure Revolution and its Ageing Society
-New Zealand’s Renting Revolution-
Address to ‘Life when renting’ Mid-term Summit,
Tauranga, May 30
Dr Natalie Jackson
Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd.
Data sources
• Customised Census database 1986-2013 from Statistics New Zealand
• Tenure by age, sex, major ethnic group, territorial authority area (TA)
• See handout for grouping of tenure categories over time
2
Main methodological notes
• The data are based on the age, sex, ethnic group, territorial authority area of usual residence of each individual in the household, at each census – thus we have data for children– thus our data do not account for people
moving between areas, only for people living in the particular area at the particular census
3
The descent of home ownership
75.267.4
49.0
12.314.6
24.8 24.4 29.1 32.6 33.6 36.3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013
Total New Zealand
Home Ownership Family Trust Renting
63.6
4Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013
The descent of home ownership/rise in renting is more dramatic in some places than others
80.5
66.2
44.9
15.7 18.5
19.527.8 33.8 36.7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013
Tauranga City
Home Ownership Family Trust Renting
63.3
5Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013
However, Tauranga, WBOP among lowest proportions renting at 65+ years in 2013
22
19
1716
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30C
hat
ham
Isla
nd
s Te
rrit
ory
Wai
roa
Dis
tric
t
Op
oti
ki D
istr
ict
Ru
apeh
u D
istr
ict
Gis
bo
rne
Dis
tric
t
Po
riru
a C
ity
Au
ckla
nd
Sou
th T
aran
aki D
istr
ict
Wes
tlan
d D
istr
ict
Ham
ilto
n C
ity
Bu
ller
Dis
tric
t
Wai
tom
o D
istr
ict
Wan
gan
ui D
istr
ict
Sou
th W
aika
to D
istr
ict
Gre
y D
istr
ict
Mac
ken
zie
Dis
tric
t
Low
er H
utt
Cit
y
Ro
toru
a D
istr
ict
Wh
akat
ane
Dis
tric
t
Mas
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Nap
ier
Cit
y
Kaw
erau
Dis
tric
t
Wai
kato
Dis
tric
t
Hau
raki
Dis
tric
t
Has
tin
gs D
istr
ict
Tota
l New
Zea
lan
d
Far
No
rth
Dis
tric
t
Kai
par
a D
istr
ict
Pal
mer
sto
n N
ort
h C
ity
Hu
run
ui D
istr
ict
Kai
kou
ra D
istr
ict
Ch
rist
chu
rch
Cit
y
Car
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Clu
tha
Dis
tric
t
Ran
giti
kei D
istr
ict
Stra
tfo
rd D
istr
ict
Ho
row
hen
ua
Dis
tric
t
Oto
roh
anga
Dis
tric
t
Tara
rua
Dis
tric
t
Tau
po
Dis
tric
t
Inve
rcar
gill
Cit
y
Man
awat
u D
istr
ict
Wh
anga
rei D
istr
ict
Tau
ran
ga C
ity
Du
ned
in C
ity
Go
re D
istr
ict
Mat
amat
a-P
iako
Dis
tric
t
New
Ply
mo
uth
Dis
tric
t
Cen
tral
Haw
ke's
Bay
Dis
tric
t
Wai
pa
Dis
tric
t
Tim
aru
Dis
tric
t
Up
per
Hu
tt C
ity
Nel
son
Cit
y
Wel
lingt
on
Cit
y
Mar
lbo
rou
gh D
istr
ict
Wai
mat
e D
istr
ict
Tham
es-C
oro
man
del
Dis
tric
t
Wai
taki
Dis
tric
t
Ash
bu
rto
n D
istr
ict
Sou
thla
nd
Dis
tric
t
Wes
tern
Bay
of
Plen
ty D
istr
ict
Sou
th W
aira
rap
a D
istr
ict
Qu
een
sto
wn
-Lak
es D
istr
ict
Tasm
an D
istr
ict
Wai
mak
arir
i Dis
tric
t
Kap
iti C
oas
t D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Ota
go D
istr
ict
Selw
yn D
istr
ict
Perc
enta
ge
Renting (%) at 65+ years in 2013
6
Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013
Home ownership has declined in every TA. Tauranga, Auckland, WBOP among greatest declines
-44
-39
-35
-30
-15
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0Q
uee
nst
ow
n-L
akes
Dis
tric
t
Tau
ran
ga C
ity
Wai
tom
o D
istr
ict
Sou
thla
nd
Dis
tric
t
Ham
ilto
n C
ity
Au
ckla
nd
Wes
tern
Bay
of
Plen
ty D
istr
ict
Oto
roh
anga
Dis
tric
t
Ash
bu
rto
n D
istr
ict
Has
tin
gs D
istr
ict
Stra
tfo
rd D
istr
ict
Ch
rist
chu
rch
Cit
y
Sou
th T
aran
aki D
istr
ict
Op
oti
ki D
istr
ict
Tau
po
Dis
tric
t
Tota
l New
Zea
lan
d
Nap
ier
Cit
y
Wel
lingt
on
Cit
y
Tham
es-C
oro
man
del
Dis
tric
t
Go
re D
istr
ict
Ro
toru
a D
istr
ict
Nel
son
Cit
y
Du
ned
in C
ity
Wai
pa
Dis
tric
t
Kap
iti C
oas
t D
istr
ict
Clu
tha
Dis
tric
t
Wan
gan
ui D
istr
ict
Gis
bo
rne
Dis
tric
t
Wh
anga
rei D
istr
ict
Wai
mat
e D
istr
ict
Pal
mer
sto
n N
ort
h C
ity
Inve
rcar
gill
Cit
y
Ho
row
hen
ua
Dis
tric
t
Low
er H
utt
Cit
y
Far
No
rth
Dis
tric
t
Wh
akat
ane
Dis
tric
t
Wai
taki
Dis
tric
t
New
Ply
mo
uth
Dis
tric
t
Mar
lbo
rou
gh D
istr
ict
Mat
amat
a-P
iako
Dis
tric
t
Tara
rua
Dis
tric
t
Sou
th W
aira
rap
a D
istr
ict
Kai
par
a D
istr
ict
Mas
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Cen
tral
Ota
go D
istr
ict
Up
per
Hu
tt C
ity
Man
awat
u D
istr
ict
Tim
aru
Dis
tric
t
Hau
raki
Dis
tric
t
Sou
th W
aika
to D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Haw
ke's
Bay
Dis
tric
t
Tasm
an D
istr
ict
Kai
kou
ra D
istr
ict
Mac
ken
zie
Dis
tric
t
Kaw
erau
Dis
tric
t
Ch
ath
am Is
lan
ds
Terr
ito
ry
Wai
kato
Dis
tric
t
Wai
roa
Dis
tric
t
Ran
giti
kei D
istr
ict
Ru
apeh
u D
istr
ict
Car
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Wai
mak
arir
i Dis
tric
t
Po
riru
a C
ity
Wes
tlan
d D
istr
ict
Gre
y D
istr
ict
Bu
ller
Dis
tric
t
Hu
run
ui D
istr
ict
Selw
yn D
istr
ict
Perc
enta
ge
Change in home ownership, all ages, 1986-2013 (%)
7
Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013
Tauranga, WBOP among greatest declines in home ownership at 65+ years
-36
-31-29 -29
-9
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10Q
uee
nst
ow
n-L
akes
Dis
tric
t
Cen
tral
Ota
go D
istr
ict
Tau
po
Dis
tric
t
Wes
tern
Bay
of
Plen
ty D
istr
ict
Tau
ran
ga C
ity
Mac
ken
zie
Dis
tric
t
Stra
tfo
rd D
istr
ict
Oto
roh
anga
Dis
tric
t
Sou
thla
nd
Dis
tric
t
Tham
es-C
oro
man
del
Dis
tric
t
Wai
taki
Dis
tric
t
Du
ned
in C
ity
Clu
tha
Dis
tric
t
Go
re D
istr
ict
Wai
tom
o D
istr
ict
Sou
th T
aran
aki D
istr
ict
Au
ckla
nd
Has
tin
gs D
istr
ict
Ash
bu
rto
n D
istr
ict
Wan
gan
ui D
istr
ict
Op
oti
ki D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Haw
ke's
Bay
Dis
tric
t
Kai
par
a D
istr
ict
Tasm
an D
istr
ict
Mar
lbo
rou
gh D
istr
ict
Wai
pa
Dis
tric
t
Ru
apeh
u D
istr
ict
Kap
iti C
oas
t D
istr
ict
Nel
son
Cit
y
Inve
rcar
gill
Cit
y
Wes
tlan
d D
istr
ict
Tota
l New
Zea
lan
d
Wh
anga
rei D
istr
ict
New
Ply
mo
uth
Dis
tric
t
Wh
akat
ane
Dis
tric
t
Man
awat
u D
istr
ict
Gre
y D
istr
ict
Tim
aru
Dis
tric
t
Tara
rua
Dis
tric
t
Kai
kou
ra D
istr
ict
Ham
ilto
n C
ity
Far
No
rth
Dis
tric
t
Ho
row
hen
ua
Dis
tric
t
Wai
mak
arir
i Dis
tric
t
Mat
amat
a-P
iako
Dis
tric
t
Ro
toru
a D
istr
ict
Bu
ller
Dis
tric
t
Sou
th W
aira
rap
a D
istr
ict
Ch
rist
chu
rch
Cit
y
Mas
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Selw
yn D
istr
ict
Pal
mer
sto
n N
ort
h C
ity
Nap
ier
Cit
y
Up
per
Hu
tt C
ity
Wai
kato
Dis
tric
t
Gis
bo
rne
Dis
tric
t
Car
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Wel
lingt
on
Cit
y
Wai
mat
e D
istr
ict
Hau
raki
Dis
tric
t
Hu
run
ui D
istr
ict
Low
er H
utt
Cit
y
Ran
giti
kei D
istr
ict
Wai
roa
Dis
tric
t
Sou
th W
aika
to D
istr
ict
Selw
yn D
istr
ict
Po
riru
a C
ity
KA
WER
AU
Dis
tric
t
Perc
enta
ge
Change in home ownership at 65+ years, 1986-2013 (%)
8
Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013
Tauranga, WBOP among greatest increases in renting
102
91
69 65
55
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140A
shb
urt
on
Dis
tric
t
Kap
iti C
oas
t D
istr
ict
Sou
th T
aran
aki D
istr
ict
Wai
mat
e D
istr
ict
Sou
thla
nd
Dis
tric
t
Op
oti
ki D
istr
ict
Mat
amat
a-P
iako
Dis
tric
t
Tau
ran
ga C
ity
Sou
th W
aira
rap
a D
istr
ict
Car
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Wes
tern
Bay
of
Plen
ty D
istr
ict
Stra
tfo
rd D
istr
ict
Oto
roh
anga
Dis
tric
t
Far
No
rth
Dis
tric
t
Ho
row
hen
ua
Dis
tric
t
Nel
son
Cit
y
Hau
raki
Dis
tric
t
Go
re D
istr
ict
Inve
rcar
gill
Cit
y
Ch
rist
chu
rch
Cit
y
Wai
tom
o D
istr
ict
Wai
pa
Dis
tric
t
Gis
bo
rne
Dis
tric
t
Ro
toru
a D
istr
ict
Ham
ilto
n C
ity
Clu
tha
Dis
tric
t
Wai
taki
Dis
tric
t
Tham
es-C
oro
man
del
Dis
tric
t
Tara
rua
Dis
tric
t
Wai
roa
Dis
tric
t
Au
ckla
nd
Has
tin
gs D
istr
ict
Mas
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
TOTA
L N
Z
Nap
ier
Cit
y
Kai
par
a D
istr
ict
Wan
gan
ui D
istr
ict
Wai
mak
arir
i Dis
tric
t
Wh
akat
ane
Dis
tric
t
Up
per
Hu
tt C
ity
Bu
ller
Dis
tric
t
Tim
aru
Dis
tric
t
Gre
y D
istr
ict
Du
ned
in C
ity
Mar
lbo
rou
gh D
istr
ict
Wh
anga
rei D
istr
ict
Man
awat
u D
istr
ict
New
Ply
mo
uth
Dis
tric
t
Ch
ath
am Is
lan
ds
Terr
ito
ry
Sou
th W
aika
to D
istr
ict
Wes
tlan
d D
istr
ict
Tasm
an D
istr
ict
Kaw
erau
Dis
tric
t
Wel
lingt
on
Cit
y
Kai
kou
ra D
istr
ict
Low
er H
utt
Cit
y
Tau
po
Dis
tric
t
Pal
mer
sto
n N
ort
h C
ity
Hu
run
ui D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Haw
ke's
Bay
Dis
tric
t
Qu
een
sto
wn
-Lak
es D
istr
ict
Ran
giti
kei D
istr
ict
Wai
kato
Dis
tric
t
Mac
ken
zie
Dis
tric
t
Ru
apeh
u D
istr
ict
Po
riru
a C
ity
Selw
yn D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Ota
go D
istr
ict
Perc
enta
ge
Change in renting, all ages, 1986-2013 (%)
9
Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013
Tauranga, WBOP among greatest increases in renting at 65+ years
113 110
59 5744
-50
0
50
100
150
200Se
lwyn
Dis
tric
t
Qu
een
sto
wn
-Lak
es D
istr
ict
Hu
run
ui D
istr
ict
Kap
iti C
oas
t D
istr
ict
Kai
kou
ra D
istr
ict
Tham
es-C
oro
man
del
Dis
tric
t
Oto
roh
anga
Dis
tric
t
Hau
raki
Dis
tric
t
Sou
thla
nd
Dis
tric
t
Sou
th T
aran
aki D
istr
ict
Car
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Op
oti
ki D
istr
ict
Tau
po
Dis
tric
t
Wes
tern
Bay
of
Plen
ty D
istr
ict
Kai
par
a D
istr
ict
Tau
ran
ga C
ity
Far
No
rth
Dis
tric
t
Gre
y D
istr
ict
Clu
tha
Dis
tric
t
Wai
mat
e D
istr
ict
Wes
tlan
d D
istr
ict
Wai
pa
Dis
tric
t
Go
re D
istr
ict
Nel
son
Cit
y
Tasm
an D
istr
ict
Wai
roa
Dis
tric
t
Ho
row
hen
ua
Dis
tric
t
Bu
ller
Dis
tric
t
Wai
tom
o D
istr
ict
Ru
apeh
u D
istr
ict
Wh
anga
rei D
istr
ict
Sou
th W
aira
rap
a D
istr
ict
Stra
tfo
rd D
istr
ict
Ro
toru
a D
istr
ict
Inve
rcar
gill
Cit
y
Wh
akat
ane
Dis
tric
t
Mar
lbo
rou
gh D
istr
ict
Wai
mak
arir
i Dis
tric
t
Mat
amat
a-P
iako
Dis
tric
t
Au
ckla
nd
Tara
rua
Dis
tric
t
New
Ply
mo
uth
Dis
tric
t
Cen
tral
Ota
go D
istr
ict
Wai
kato
Dis
tric
t
Up
per
Hu
tt C
ity
Has
tin
gs D
istr
ict
Gis
bo
rne
Dis
tric
t
Wai
taki
Dis
tric
t
TOTA
L N
Z
Ham
ilto
n C
ity
Ash
bu
rto
n D
istr
ict
Sou
th W
aika
to D
istr
ict
Wan
gan
ui D
istr
ict
Tim
aru
Dis
tric
t
Mas
tert
on
Dis
tric
t
Man
awat
u D
istr
ict
Ch
rist
chu
rch
Cit
y
Ran
giti
kei D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Haw
ke's
Bay
Dis
tric
t
Nap
ier
Cit
y
Du
ned
in C
ity
Pal
mer
sto
n N
ort
h C
ity
Wel
lingt
on
Cit
y
Low
er H
utt
Cit
y
Kaw
erau
Dis
tric
t
Po
riru
a C
ity
Perc
enta
ge
Change in renting, 65+ years, 1986-2013 (%)
10
Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013
WHY GREATEST INCREASES IN RENTING BUT LOWEST PROPORTIONS?
Is it simply greater increases off lower bases?
…partly
11
Proportions living in Family Trust homes relatively high in Tauranga, WBOP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Qu
een
sto
wn
-Lak
es D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Ota
go D
istr
ict
WB
OP
Sou
thla
nd
Dis
tric
tSt
ratf
ord
Dis
tric
tC
entr
al H
awke
's B
ay D
istr
ict
Oto
roh
anga
Dis
tric
tG
ore
Dis
tric
tTA
UR
AN
GA
Wai
pa
Dis
tric
tC
luth
a D
istr
ict
Wai
tom
o D
istr
ict
Selw
yn D
istr
ict
Has
tin
gs D
istr
ict
Tham
es-C
oro
man
del
Dis
tric
tW
aika
to D
istr
ict
Tau
po
Dis
tric
tM
acke
nzi
e D
istr
ict
Tasm
an D
istr
ict
Kai
par
a D
istr
ict
Kap
iti C
oas
t D
istr
ict
Man
awat
u D
istr
ict
AU
CK
LAN
DM
AR
LBO
RO
UG
HN
ew P
lym
ou
th D
istr
ict
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taki
Dis
tric
tSo
uth
Wai
rara
pa
Dis
tric
tD
un
edin
Cit
ySo
uth
Tar
anak
i Dis
tric
tTO
TAL
NZ
Ash
bu
rto
n D
istr
ict
Tara
rua
Dis
tric
tW
han
gare
i Dis
tric
tW
aim
akar
iri D
istr
ict
Nap
ier
Cit
yW
anga
nu
i Dis
tric
tR
angi
tike
i Dis
tric
tM
atam
ata-
Pia
ko D
istr
ict
Low
er H
utt
Cit
yN
elso
n C
ity
Wel
lingt
on
Cit
yH
uru
nu
i Dis
tric
tTi
mar
u D
istr
ict
Wai
mat
e D
istr
ict
Inve
rcar
gill
Cit
yC
hri
stch
urc
h C
ity
Wh
akat
ane
Dis
tric
tR
uap
ehu
Dis
tric
tK
aiko
ura
Dis
tric
tU
pp
er H
utt
Cit
yH
oro
wh
enu
a D
istr
ict
Pal
mer
sto
n N
ort
h C
ity
Far
No
rth
Dis
tric
tP
ori
rua
Cit
yO
po
tiki
Dis
tric
tH
amilt
on
Cit
yM
aste
rto
n D
istr
ict
Car
tert
on
Dis
tric
tR
oto
rua
Dis
tric
tG
isb
orn
e D
istr
ict
Ch
ath
am Is
lan
ds
Terr
ito
ryW
estl
and
Dis
tric
tH
aura
ki D
istr
ict
Gre
y D
istr
ict
Sou
th W
aika
to D
istr
ict
Bu
ller
Dis
tric
tW
airo
a D
istr
ict
Kaw
erau
Dis
tric
t
per
cen
tage
Tenure (%) 2013, all ages, ordered by % living in Family Trusts
Owned (r=-0.345**) Rented (r=-0.272*) Family Trust
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 12
Similar at 65+ years, but correlations much stronger; the higher the % in family trust, the lower the % home
ownership (r=-0.847**) and renting (r=-0.581**)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Qu
een
sto
wn
-Lak
es D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Ota
go D
istr
ict
Cen
tral
Haw
ke's
Bay
Dis
tric
tW
BO
PSo
uth
lan
d D
istr
ict
Du
ned
in C
ity
Tau
po
Dis
tric
tO
toro
han
ga D
istr
ict
Wai
taki
Dis
tric
tSt
ratf
ord
Dis
tric
tA
shb
urt
on
Dis
tric
tTA
UR
AN
GA
Tham
es-C
oro
man
del
Dis
tric
tC
luth
a D
istr
ict
Tasm
an D
istr
ict
Go
re D
istr
ict
Man
awat
u D
istr
ict
Has
tin
gs D
istr
ict
MA
RLB
OR
OU
GH
Wai
tom
o D
istr
ict
Mac
ken
zie
Dis
tric
tTi
mar
u D
istr
ict
Wai
pa
Dis
tric
tTa
raru
a D
istr
ict
Sou
th W
aira
rap
a D
istr
ict
Kai
par
a D
istr
ict
Wan
gan
ui D
istr
ict
Kap
iti C
oas
t D
istr
ict
TOTA
L N
ZN
ew P
lym
ou
th D
istr
ict
Low
er H
utt
Cit
yN
elso
n C
ity
Inve
rcar
gill
Cit
yW
aim
akar
iri D
istr
ict
Selw
yn D
istr
ict
Wh
anga
rei D
istr
ict
Sou
th T
aran
aki D
istr
ict
Pal
mer
sto
n N
ort
h C
ity
AU
CK
LAN
DW
ellin
gto
n C
ity
Mat
amat
a-P
iako
Dis
tric
tW
hak
atan
e D
istr
ict
Ru
apeh
u D
istr
ict
Nap
ier
Cit
yC
hri
stch
urc
h C
ity
Po
riru
a C
ity
Ran
giti
kei D
istr
ict
Kai
kou
ra D
istr
ict
Mas
tert
on
Dis
tric
tFa
r N
ort
h D
istr
ict
Wes
tlan
d D
istr
ict
Ho
row
hen
ua
Dis
tric
tW
aika
to D
istr
ict
Ham
ilto
n C
ity
Op
oti
ki D
istr
ict
Hu
run
ui D
istr
ict
Up
per
Hu
tt C
ity
Gre
y D
istr
ict
Wai
mat
e D
istr
ict
Ro
toru
a D
istr
ict
Gis
bo
rne
Dis
tric
tB
ulle
r D
istr
ict
Car
tert
on
Dis
tric
tSo
uth
Wai
kato
Dis
tric
tH
aura
ki D
istr
ict
Ch
ath
am Is
lan
ds
Terr
ito
ryW
airo
a D
istr
ict
Kaw
erau
Dis
tric
t
per
cen
tage
Tenure (%) at 65+ years, 2013, ordered by % living in Family Trusts
Owned (r=-0.847**) Rented (r=-0.581**) Family Trust
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 13
The tenure revolution
• Home ownership is considerably lower than in 1986
– Nationally 75% >> 49%
• Home ownership + family trust together is considerably lower than home ownership per se in 1986
– Nationally 75% >> 64%
• Renting is considerably higher than in 1986
– Nationally 25% >> 36%
• The tenure revolution is accentuated by [older] people living in homes owned by a Family Trust
– The higher the % living in home owned by a Family Trust, the lower the home ownership (all ages, pearson’s r = -0.35**; At 65+ years r=-0.85**)
– The higher the % living in home owned by a Family Trust, the lower the % renting (all ages, pearson’s r = -0.27*; At 65+ years r = -0.58**)
• Results suggest tenure revolution = growing socio-economic [and ethnic] divide, which is highly spatially differentiated
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 14
RENTING BY BIRTH COHORT
15
1 – observe trend for each cohort
2 - Inter-cohort trends (how each cohort differs by year of birth) = vertical difference between cohorts when at the same age
3 - Intra-cohort trends (eg., how each cohort differs by location) = horizontal difference between same-age cohorts
Renting – Total New Zealand
45.8
61.2
32.6
56.0
46.1
48.3
27.2
17.1
17.9
12.70
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-4
Yea
rs
5-9
Yea
rs
10
-14
Yea
rs
15
-19
Ye
ars
20
-24
Yea
rs
25
-29
Ye
ars
30
-34
Ye
ars
35
-39
Ye
ars
40
-44
Ye
ars
45
-49
Ye
ars
50
-54
Ye
ars
55
-59
Ye
ars
60
-64
Ye
ars
65
-69
Ye
ars
70
-74
Ye
ars
75
-79
Ye
ars
80
-84
Ye
ars
85
+ Ye
ars
per
cen
tage
Renting by Birth Cohort*, Total NZ
2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81
1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-26 1947-51 1942-46
1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16
Cohort Born:
Cohort Born 1982-86
Main family formation years
Leave parental home
*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses
At 30-34 years, gap = 20 pp (+74%); at 65-69 years 4.5pp (+34%).
19.0
Renting – Tauranga City
48.4
66.6
24.7
59.3
49.6
46.0 29.4
14.6
15.9
8.30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-4
Yea
rs
5-9
Yea
rs
10-
14 Y
ear
s
15-
19 Y
ear
s
20-
24 Y
ears
25-
29 Y
ear
s
30-
34 Y
ears
35-
39 Y
ear
s
40-
44 Y
ear
s
45-
49 Y
ear
s
50-
54 Y
ear
s
55-
59 Y
ear
s
60-
64 Y
ear
s
65-
69 Y
ear
s
70-
74 Y
ear
s
75-
79 Y
ear
s
80-
84 Y
ear
s
85
+ Ye
ars
per
cen
tage
Renting by Birth Cohort*, Tauranga City
2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81
1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-56 1947-51 1942-46
1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16
Cohort Born:
Cohort Born 1982-86
Main family formation years
Leave parental home
*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses
At 30-34 years, gap = 28 pp (+126%); 65-69 years 7pp (+93%)
17.0
Renting – Western Bay of Plenty
48.2
58.9
35.9
60.8
52.1
39.852.0
27.1
18.2
14.5
13.6
7.60
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25
-29
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70
-74
75
-79
80
-84
85
+
per
cen
tage
Renting by Birth Cohort*, WBOP
2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81
1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-56 1947-51 1942-46
1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16
Cohort Born:
Cohort Born 1982-86
Main family formation years
Leave parental home
*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses
At 30-34 years, gap = 22 pp (+75%); 65-69 3pp (+27%)
15.0
Renting – Auckland
47.2
57.8
33.6
55.7
47.7
39.9
44.5 31.1
24.0
16.7
22.0
13.80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-4
Yea
rs
5-9
Yea
rs
10-
14 Y
ear
s
15-
19 Y
ear
s
20-
24 Y
ears
25-
29 Y
ear
s
30-
34 Y
ears
35-
39 Y
ear
s
40-
44 Y
ear
s
45-
49 Y
ear
s
50-
54 Y
ear
s
55-
59 Y
ear
s
60-
64 Y
ear
s
65-
69 Y
ear
s
70-
74 Y
ear
s
75-
79 Y
ear
s
80-
84 Y
ear
s
85
+ Ye
ars
per
cen
tage
Renting by Birth Cohort*, Auckland
2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81
1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-56 1947-51 1942-46
1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16
Cohort Born:
Cohort Born 1982-86
Main family formation years
Leave parental home
*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses
At 30-34 years, gap = 20 pp (+72%); 65-69 8pp (+55%)
22.0
The tenure revolution by cohort
• The fall in home ownership/increase in renting has accelerated since 2001, for almost all cohorts – TREND - cohorts at key parenting ages are still increasing their levels of home ownership,
but at much lower levels than their predecessors when at the same age
• The increase in renting is particularly evident among parent and child cohorts – much greater vertical gaps for younger than older cohorts
– Younger cohorts are in a vastly different situation to the past >> unlikely to ‘catch up’
• The trends began with the oldest cohorts, and accelerated after the introduction of Family Trusts– The most ‘advantaged’ cohorts (lowest rental levels) were born 1922-26 and 1927-31
– However some areas experiencing much greater shocks (increases in renting) than others – eg Tauranga City - and may not be planning appropriate housing stock
• Results suggest growing cohort and spatial socio-economic divergence– Divergence increases by cohort (younger cohorts are worse off than older cohorts)
– By ethnicity, cohort gaps have closed slightly due to greater increase in renting by European and Asian cohorts
20
Decline in home ownership, increase in renting common to all ethnic groups. Māori, Pacific Peoples highest RENTING rates, but
Asian, European highest % increase
49.2
66.9
46.1
56.9
27.2
41.6
21.1
29.924.8
36.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013
per
cen
tage
Percentage renting by major ethnic group
Pacific Peoples (+36%) Maori (+23%) Asian (+53%) European (+42%) Total NZ (+46%)
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 22
Highest Renting levels at older ages by TA
HIGHEST % RENTING in 2013
65+ YEARS 75+ YEARS
% Renting in 2013
1 Wairoa 26% Ruapehu 29%
2 Opotiki 25% Westland 28%
3 Ruapehu 24% Buller 28%
4 Gisborne 24% *Grey 27%
5 Porirua 22% South Taranaki 26%
6 *Auckland 22% Opotiki 25%
7 South Taranaki 22% *Wanganui 25%
8 Westland 22% Wairoa 24%
9 *Hamilton 22% Porirua 24%
10 Buller 22% Gisborne 24%23
