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| Date post: | 17-Dec-2015 |
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Objectives
1. Show that differences between mental models with different levels of aggregation are overstated by current comparison approaches, which interpret the absence of a direct link as the non-existence of a link.
2. Introduce two new indicators to weight the differences between causal chains of different lengths between two variables in MMDSs:
• Relative Length Difference• Relative Content Difference
Example SFD
Adpresence
advertisements
adobsolescence
Availablemoney
salesrevenue
ad spending
Ordersbacklog
orders
sales
Productioncapacity
price
ad unit cost
+
++
++advertising
budget
advertisingfraction
+
+
+
-
R1
effect of adpresence on
orders
+
+
otherspending
deliverydelay
Perceiveddelivery
delay
perceptionadjustment
-
+
+
effect ofperceiveddelay onorders -+
B1
perceptionadjustment time
-
-
Growth engine
Buyers'response
Example CLD
advertisements
sales
sales revenue
advertisementbudget
+
R1
Ad presence
effct of adpresence on
orders
orders
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
delivery delay
Perceiveddelivery delay
perceptionadjustment
effect of perceiveddelay on orders
+
-
+
+
-
+
- -
B1Growth engine
Buyers'response
Focus is on (chains of) causal links: no loops!
MMDS1: highly disaggregated
advertisements
sales
sales revenue
advertisementbudget
Ad presence
effct of adpresence on
orders
orders
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
delivery delay
Perceiveddelivery delay
perceptionadjustment
effect of perceiveddelay on orders
MMDS2 : without auxiliary variables
advertisements
sales
sales revenue
Ad presence
orders
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
Perceiveddelivery delay
perceptionadjustment
MMDS3: without co-flows
sales
Ad presence
orders
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
Perceiveddelivery delay
perceptionadjustment
MMDS4: only stocks
Ad presence
Order backlog
Availablemoney
Perceiveddelivery delay
Levels of aggregation
Detailed
Without auxiliaries (only stocks and flows)
Without co-flows, flow-flow connections
Only stocks, “overview”
Disaggregated
Aggregated
What happens with the details?
sales
sales revenue
Availablemoney
salesAvailablemoney
Disaggregating
Aggregating
Deleted?Substituted?
MMDS 1 includes MMDS 2
advertisements
sales
sales revenue
advertisementbudget
Ad presence
effct of adpresence on
orders
orders
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
delivery delay
Perceiveddelivery delay
perceptionadjustment
effect of perceiveddelay on orders
MMDS 2 includes MMDS 3
advertisements
sales
sales revenue
Ad presence
orders
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
Perceiveddelivery delay
perceptionadjustment
Model variables
V[] Name MMDS 1 MMDS 2 MMDS 3 MMDS 41 Order backlog 1 1 1 12 sales 1 1 1 3 sales revenue 1 1 4 Available money 1 1 1 15 advertisement budget 1 6 ad spending 1 1 1 7 advertisements 1 1 8 Ad presence 1 1 1 19 effect of ad presence on orders 1
10 orders 1 1 1 11 delivery delay 1 12 perception adjustment 1 1 1 13 Perceived delivery delay 1 1 1 114 effect of perceived delay on orders 1
14 10 8 4
Adjacency matrix MMDS21 Order backlog2 sales3 sales revenue4 Available money5 advertisement budget6 ad spending7 advertisements8 Ad presence9 effect of ad presence on orders
10 orders11 delivery delay12 perception adjustment13 Perceived delivery delay14 effect of perceived delay on orders
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 02 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 013 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 02 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 013 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sales
sales revenue
Availablemoney
Differences with MMDS2 increase!
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MMDS3 6 MMDS4 141 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 02 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 08 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 02 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 08 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
If both MMDS have the same meaning, do current methods for comparing MMDS overweight these differences?
advertisements
sales
sales revenue
Ad presence
orders
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
Perceiveddelivery delay
perceptionadjustment
Distance matrix MMDS2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141 0 1 2 3 0 4 5 6 0 7 0 1 2 02 7 0 1 2 0 3 4 5 0 6 0 8 9 03 6 7 0 1 0 2 3 4 0 5 0 7 8 04 5 6 7 0 0 1 2 3 0 4 0 6 7 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 4 5 6 7 0 0 1 2 0 3 0 5 6 07 3 4 5 6 0 7 0 1 0 2 0 4 5 08 2 3 4 5 0 6 7 0 0 1 0 3 4 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 1 2 3 4 0 5 6 7 0 0 0 2 3 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 2 3 4 5 0 6 7 8 0 9 0 0 1 013 1 2 3 4 0 5 6 7 0 8 0 2 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141 0 1 2 3 0 4 5 6 0 7 0 1 2 02 7 0 1 2 0 3 4 5 0 6 0 8 9 03 6 7 0 1 0 2 3 4 0 5 0 7 8 04 5 6 7 0 0 1 2 3 0 4 0 6 7 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 4 5 6 7 0 0 1 2 0 3 0 5 6 07 3 4 5 6 0 7 0 1 0 2 0 4 5 08 2 3 4 5 0 6 7 0 0 1 0 3 4 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 1 2 3 4 0 5 6 7 0 0 0 2 3 011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 2 3 4 5 0 6 7 8 0 9 0 0 1 013 1 2 3 4 0 5 6 7 0 8 0 2 0 014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 sales3 sales revenue4 Available money6 ad spending7 advertisements8 Ad presence
10 orders12 perception adjustment13 Perceived delivery delay
Distant, not absent
1 2 3 41 0 1 2 32 7 0 1 23 6 7 0 14 5 6 7 0
MMDS2
sales
sales revenue
Availablemoney
MMDS31 2 3 4
1 0 1 0 22 5 0 0 13 0 0 0 04 4 5 0 0
salesAvailablemoney
Disaggregated
Aggregated
0
+
-
Relative Length Difference
Mental models
Distance from Order backlog
to Ad presence
Difference: model -
reference
Relative
Length
difference
MMDS 2 6 0 0MMDS 1 8 2 0.33MMDS 3 4 -2 -0.33MMDS 4 2 -4 -0.67
How different are the causal chains from stock to stock?
advertisements
sales
sales revenue
Ad presence
Order backlog
Availablemoney
ad spending
MMDS2
Ad presence
Order backlog
Availablemoney
MMDS4
1 Order backlog2 sales3 sales revenue4 Available money5 advertisement budget6 ad spending7 advertisements8 Ad presence
Relative Content DifferenceModel Variables Total
Reference 1 2 3 4 6 7 81 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 83 1 2 4 6 84 1 4 8
Union 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8
Variables only in the compared model Total1 5 13 04 0
Variables from reference model not in the compared model Total1 03 3 5 7 34 2 3 5 6 7 5
Differences per modelMMDS Absolute Relative
1 1 0,133 3 0,384 5 0,63
Length and content comparison
MMDS Relative length difference
RLD
Relative content difference
RCD
1 0.33 0.1
3 -0.33 0.4
4 -0.67 0.6
≠ absent= different (but not so much)
Distant
Insight
DistanceMatrix Distance in reference MMDS
Distance in a MMDS Relative Length
Difference
AdjacencyMatrix Total number of variables in the chain in all compared MMDSs
Number of different variables in a chain of an MMDS Relative Content
Difference
• A way to account for indirect causal links• Will enrich MMDS comparison methods• May enrich modeling software
Thankyou!
Questions?
![Index [assets.cambridge.org]assets.cambridge.org/97805218/60253/index/9780521860253_index… · aggregation. See bubble, aggregation; particle, aggregation; particle, concentration](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/60634dbbe29a93467d378f87/index-aggregation-see-bubble-aggregation-particle-aggregation-particle.jpg)
