wrrc.arizona.edu

Groundwater, Climate and Stakeholder

Engagement (GCASE)

Objectives, Update and Schedule

Milestone Workshop 2

This work is funded under a grant from the Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office. The views expressed in this report represent those of the authors and do not

necessarily reflect the views or policies of NOAA

Susanna Eden November 2013

• Project Team: Sharon Megdal, Susanna Eden and Jacob Prietto, WRRC - UA Eylon Shamir, HRC Karletta Chief, Soil Water & Environmental Science - UA Christopher Castro, Carlos Carrillo and Hsin-I Chang, Atmospheric Sciences – UA Advisory Committee: Mike Lacey, ADWR

Alejandro Barcenas, City of Nogales

Greg Kornrumph, SRP

James Leenhouts, USGS.

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GCASE Project Concept

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Basin: Hourly rainfall Generator of likely scenarios

Border Crossing: Daily streamflow model

Micro basins: Groundwater Storage changes

Long term assessment for various management schemes

MODELING FRAMEWORK

STA

KEH

OLD

ER E

NG

AG

EMEN

T STAKEHOLDER

ENGAGEMENT

PROJECTIONS OF

FUTURE CLIMATE

1. Enhance the probabilistic coupled

surface-groundwater modeling scheme by

incorporating projected future climate change

patterns into the modeling framework;

Project Objectives

4

Time

Flo

w

Ensemble* of likely rainfall & streamflow scenarios

Rainfall Scenarios

Streamflow

Groundwater recharge

*multiple projections that use slightly different plausible initial conditions

Reliability Assessment

Downscaling produces data that capture features in more detail.

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Dynamical downscaling

Global scale:

2.5° resolution

Regional scale: 35km resolution

Local Climate Projection-Based

Inputs

Rainfall Generator Streamflow Groundwater Recharge

2. Increase stakeholder capacity to adapt water

planning and management to future climate

uncertainties through interactive translation of

modeling technology and stakeholder concerns;

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Project Objectives

Kickoff

Workshop

October

18, 2012

Water

Resources

Research

Center,

Tucson

Milestone

Workshop

April 11,

2013

City Council

Chambers,

Nogales, AZ

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GCASE Santa Cruz AMA

wrrc.arizona.edu/GCASE

3. Establish the transferability of the modeling

framework and capacity building approach to other

areas.

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Project Objectives

DONE: • Kickoff Workshop - Introduced project and engaged

of stakeholders

• Created and populated project website

• Developed SCAMA case study - with stakeholder input

• Climate change - Enhanced modeling framework analyses

• Milestone Workshop 1 - Presented of case study results and engaged of stakeholders

• Supplemented SCAMA case study with stakeholder input

• Presented GCASE project to the SCAMA GUAC

Where are we?

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TO DO: • Milestone Workshop 2 - Present results of

modified case study and engage stakeholders

• Develop final products for SCAMA case study

with stakeholder input

• Investigate transferability of the process to other

areas of the state through additional workshops

• Report project results

Where are we?

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• Review and summary of project outcomes

• Presentations on other activities in the SCAMA related to groundwater resources

• Case study recap and presentation of results from additional model runs and scenarios

• Discussion of incorporating results into water management

Milestone Workshop 2

November 20, 2013

Water Resources Research Center

Tucson, AZ

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• Discussion of potential products for

stakeholders from the SCAMA case study

• Discussion of transferability workshops

• Engagement of new stakeholders

Milestone Workshop 2

November 20, 2013

Water Resources Research Center,

Tucson, AZ

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