Observational Gaps In the Atmospheric Sciences

“Enabling and enhancing roles for Autonomous Aerial Observation

Systems”

Introduction

• Workshop was held in October 2003 to begin process of identifying significant atmospheric, oceanographic and terrestrial science questions and high societal impact issues that are not adequately (nor at all) addressed due to gaps in our observing systems.

• More specifically, the task was to identify observing system gaps best met with AAOSs

• Agreed that identification of AAOS target science questions should be consistent with the ESE’s “23 questions” and the associated roadmaps.

Major gaps in current atmospheric observing systems

• Impediments related to satellite based observations:– Clouds obscure many processes critical to understanding

forcing/response– Temporal coverage from LEO systems not suited for most

<mesoscale investigations– Spatial resolution from GEO not adequate for most process

studies

• Impediments related to current airborne systems– Need persistent (and at times) Lagrangian observations before,

during and after episodic events to understand forcing and feedbacks

– Observations from distant ocean areas hard to achieve in a persistent or adaptive targeting manner

– Stratospheric/tropospheric interface infrequently visited

Relevant ESE focus areas

• Climate variability and change

• Weather

• Atmospheric composition

• Water and energy cycles

• Carbon cycle and ecosystems

Atmospheric Observing System “Gap” Topics

• Life-cycles of tropical and severe storms (hurricanes in particular)

• Lagrangian studies of air parcel chemistry, thermodynamics and dynamics (long endurance)

• Adaptive targeting of observations needed for operational weather forecasting (rapid response/low cost)

• Stratospheric/tropospheric exchange (long endurance)

Life-cycle of tropical and severe storms (hurricanes in particular)

• Science questions and status– What governs the evolution of a tropical

disturbance into a major hurricane? What we know is limited to short duration field campaigns, satellite based research and models.

– What is the role of atmospheric composition in the life-cycle ? The importance of local aerosols and microphysics sensitive chemistry is poorly understood and observed.

– Non-linear interactions of severe storms with their environments are known to be critical but are poorly observed on the required time and space scales.

• ESE related Focus Areas– Water and energy cycles– Weather– Atmospheric composition

• Measurement requirements– Parameters

• Sea surface temperature• Sea surface winds/waves• MBL winds and fluxes• Precipitation• Environmental profiles of t,q and u• Microphysics and air chemistry

– Observing system requirements• Vertical regard: 0 – 20km• Horizontal regard: 500km• Temporal revisit: 1 hour• Duration: 14 days• Range: trans oceanic

• AAOS enhancements– Long duration flights over oceans– Adaptive flight below clouds that confound satellite

observations– Temporal and spatial resolution matched to

phenomena– Flight into high stress zones (icing, shear,spherics)– Cal/val for space-based observing systems

Lagrangian studies of air parcel chemistry, thermodynamics and dynamics

• Science questions and status– How do the chemistry, thermodynamics and

dynamics of an individual “parcel” of atmosphere respond to external forcing? Do models properly represent chemical reaction rates? Very little validation of models.

• Related ESE focus areas– Atmospheric composition– Water and energy cycles– Weather– Climate variability and change– Carbon cycle and ecosystems

• Measurement requirements– Aerosol loadings (physical and chemical properties)– Gas concentrations (ozone, CO2)– Air temperature, moisture, winds, radiation

• Observing system requirements• Vertical regard: 0 – 30km• Horizontal regard: 10km• Temporal revisit: minutes• Duration: 48 hours• Range: per air parcel

• AAOS opportunities for enhancement– Ability to fly at speeds that permit co-flight with limited

size air parcels (airships?)– Mother ship with associated sensor craft for combined

mission endurance and multi-mobile-platform investigations

– Self directed positioning to meet science objectives– High capability mother ship would allow for use of

active systems not easily accommodated on small sensor craft

Adaptive targeting of observations needed for operational weather forecasting*

• Science questions and status– Can forecasts of high impact weather events

be improved significantly with adaptive targeting? Not enough cases (too expensive) to draw conclusions from field campaigns such a WSRP.

– What are the critical real-time observations for fully coupled models of the atmosphere, oceans and land? Models are currently designed to use available data, not necessarily required data.

• Related ESE focus areas– Atmospheric composition– Water and energy cycles– Weather– Climate variability and change– Carbon cycle and ecosystems

• Measurement requirements– Parameters

• Air temperature, moisture and winds• Radiation and cloud coverage• Surface water/moisture• Interface fluxes

– Observing system requirements• Rapid response < 6 hours• Vertical regard: 0 – 20km• Horizontal regard: 2000km• Temporal revisit: 6 hour• Duration: 2 days• Range: trans oceanic

• AAOS opportunities for enhancement– Squadrons of sensor craft (IMPS) available

on-call for model directed data collection (IMPS: Integrated Model Platform Sensors)

* Also for homeland security functions and disaster response

Stratospheric/tropospheric exchange

• Science questions and status– How can we observe and understand intercontinental

atmospheric transport of chemicals and their transformations?

– How do we integrate in-situ measurements, satellite observations and models (further developing the potential of satellite remote sensing)

– Lack of observations is hindering our understanding of the processes controlling tropospheric ozone concentrations (physical and chemical)

– How and where is ozone made in the troposphere? We need experiments to quantify the various processes that affect global tropospheric ozone.

– We need to improve our understanding of how transport processes (convection, frontal systems, STE) affect the ozone budget.

• Related ESE focus areas– Atmospheric composition– Water and energy cycles– Weather– Climate variability and change– Carbon cycle and ecosystems

• Measurement requirements– Ozone, aerosols– Interactive chemical species– Local profiles of temperature, moisture and winds

• Observing system requirements• Vertical regard: 0 – 20km• Horizontal regard: 500km• Temporal revisit: 3 hour• Duration:10 days• Range: per event

• AAOS opportunities for enhancement– High altitude, long duration flight with air parcel

following capability– Self directed flight at times.– External (models?) directed flight at times.

Relevance to Earth Science Roadmaps

• NASA works with the science community to identify questions on the frontiers of science that have profound societal importance, and to which remote sensing of the Earth can make a defining contribution. These science questions become the foundation of a research strategy, which defines requirements for scientific observations, and a roadmap for combining the technology, observations, modeling efforts, basic research, and partnerships needed to answer the questions over time.

• Six roadmaps space the research strategy:– Climate Variability and Change - Develop integrated models of the ocean,

air, cryosphere and land surface, and apply to retrospective and future studies of climate variability and change.

– Weather - Develop the technology, observational and modeling capacity needed to improve daily and extreme weather forecasting (e.g. hurricanes, tornadoes).

– Atmospheric Composition - Understand the trace constituent and particulate composition of the Earth’s atmosphere and predict its future evolution.

– Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, and Biogeochemistry - Understand and predict changes in the Earth's terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles.

– Water & Energy Cycles - Characterize and predict trends and changes in the global water and energy cycles.

– Earth Surface and Interior Structure - Utilize state-of-the-art measurements and advanced modeling techniques to understand and predict changes in the Earth's surface and interior.

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Atmospheric Composition

High lat. observations ofO3, aerosol, & H2O in the UT/LS (SAGE III & Science/ Validation Campaigns)

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Operational predictions linking ozone and aerosols with climate and air quality

Systematic observations of O3, aerosol, and O3-related & climate-related trace gases

Evaluation of chemistry/climate interactions using multi-decadal simulations of the stratosphere & troposphere. Quantification of mechanisms in the evolution of tropospheric ozone.

2002 2008 2010 2012 20142004 2006

Steady Improvements in Assessment Models

o Melding of stratospheric & tropospheric chemistry

o Coupling of chemistry and radiation in GCMs

o Assimilation of constituents in models

o Improved representations of aerosols & emissions

o Increased spatial resolution

Global observations of stratospheric & tropospheric constituents & parameters: Aura, ENVISAT

Simulation of observed changes in tropospheric & stratospheric ozone, water vapor, aerosols and potential impacts of future changes on climate & atmospheric chemistry

Field campaigns: stratosphere/troposphere coupling & satellite validation

Ozone Continuity Mission: Continued trend series of ozone- and climate-related parameters

Assessment of observed stratospheric ozone recovery in response changing climate; continuing assessment of tropospheric ozone trends and mechanisms

Evaluation of feedbacks between aerosols, O3, H2O, and climate

International Assessment

International Assessment

International Assessment

2000 • Halogen chemistry shown responsible for stratospheric O3 losses. • Tropospheric O3 not well understood. • Uncertainties in feedbacks between strat. O3 recovery, trop. O3 trends, & climate.• Poor knowledge and modeling of the chemical evolution of aerosols

Geostationary Tropospheric Composition Mission High spatial & temporal resolution products

NPOESS ozone trend and aerosol measurements

Accelerated (APS) aerosol measurements

Goal:

Improved prognostic ability for:

Recovery of strat. Ozone. Impacts on climate and surface UV

Evolution of trop. ozone and aerosols. Impacts on climate and air quality

LEO Aerosol/Black Carbon MappingT

Assessment of the potential for future major ozone

depletion in the Arctic

Systematic stratospheric composition T

NASA

Unfunded

Intern’l

NOAA

T=Technology

development needed

AAOS for water and energy cycle research

• Budget closure involving precipitation, evaporation,runoff..

AAOS for weather research and applications

• Need storm scale observations over entire life-cycle of disturbance

• Need adaptive targeting of critical observations in model data sensitive locations

AAOS for climate variability and change

AAOS for atmospheric composition research

• Stratospheric/tropospheric exchange events

• Aerosol/chemical interactions with convection

AAOS for carbon cycle and ecosystems research