Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide...

Development of a national strategy for adaptation to climate change adverse

impacts in Cyprus

CYPADAPT

LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723

Report on observed changes and

responses to climate change worldwide

and in Cyprus

DELIVERABLE 1.1

Authors: Mike Petrakis, Christos Giannakopoulos, Giannis Lemesios

National Observatory of Athens, Greece

Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus

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Acknowledgements

This report was produced under co-finance of the European financial instrument for the Environment (LIFE+) as the first Deliverable (D1.1) of the first Action (Action 1) of Project “CYPADAPT” (LIFE10ENV/CY/000723) during the implementation of its first Activity (Activity 1.a) on the “Observed changes and responses to climate change worldwide and in Cyprus”. The CYPADAPT team would like to acknowledge the European financial instrument for the Environment (LIFE+) for the financial support. Disclaimer

The information included herein is legal and true to the best possible knowledge of the

authors, as it is the product of the utilization and synthesis of the referenced sources, for

which the authors cannot be held accountable.


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Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1

1 Review on the observed changes and responses to climate change worldwide ... 2

1.1 Introduction to Global Climate Change ..................................................................... 2

1.2 Temperature rise ....................................................................................................... 3

1.3 Melting Ice – Snow .................................................................................................... 7

1.4 Sea-level Rise ........................................................................................................... 10

1.5 Precipitation ............................................................................................................ 11

1.6 Extreme weather events: heatwave, drought, flood, hurricane ............................. 13

1.7 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 15

References .................................................................................................................... 15

2 Review of the observed changes and responses to climate change in Cyprus .... 17

2.1 20th century climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean ................................... 17

2.2 Climate of Cyprus .................................................................................................... 19

2.3 Recent climate change in Cyprus ............................................................................ 19

2.3.1 Temperature .................................................................................................... 19

2.3.2 Precipitation .................................................................................................... 24

2.3.3 Evapotranspiration .......................................................................................... 27

2.4 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 28

References .................................................................................................................... 29

List of Figures Figure 1-1: Increase of carbon dioxide (left), methane (middle) and nitrous oxide (right)

concentration in the atmosphere from 1800 till today. The increase of carbon

dioxide is from 278 ppm (pre-industrial era) to 379 ppm (today). The

corresponding increase of the methane is from 715 ppb to 1774 ppb, and finally

nitrous oxide, the increase is from 270 ppb to 319 ppb (IPCC, 2007) .................. 2

Figure 1-2: Observed changes in global mean surface temperature of the atmosphere (IPCC,

2007) ..................................................................................................................... 3

Figure 1-3: Annual (left) and decadal (right) variations in the land-surface average

temperature (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011) ..................... 4


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Figure 1-4: Maps showing the decadal average changes in the land temperature field

(Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011) ........................................... 4

Figure 1-5: Warming trends 1976 – 2000 (UNEP, 2005) ........................................................... 5

Figure 1-6: The global warming can only be explained by using models which take into

account both human and natural pressures (IPCC, 2007) .................................... 6

Figure 1-7: Increase in Global Ocean Heat Content from the surface to 700m depth for the

period 1955 – 2011 ............................................................................................... 6

Figure 1-8: Ocean heat content from 0 m – 700 m depth from 1955 (top) compared with

2011 (bottom) (NOAA-NODC, 2011) ..................................................................... 7

Figure 1-9: Northern Hemisphere snow cover decrease during March – April (IPCC, 2007) .... 8

Figure 1-10: Changes in sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere (A) and Southern

Hemisphere (B) based on microwave satellite data (IPCC, 2007) ........................ 8

Figure 1-11: Annual mean and cumulative changes in the thickness of ice for the period 1961

– 2005 (NSIDC, 2008) ............................................................................................ 9

Figure 1-12: 1941-2004 comparison: Glacier Bay National Park and Reserve's White Thunder

Ridge as seen on August 13, 1941 (left) and August 31, 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004)

.............................................................................................................................. 9

Figure 1-13: 1928-2000 comparison: These photos of the South Cascade Glacier in the

Washington Cascade Mountains show dramatic retreat between 1928 and 2000

(USGS) ................................................................................................................. 10

Figure 1-14: Increase in global average sea level as measured by observations (grey dots) and

satellite data (red line) (IPCC, 2007) ................................................................... 10

Figure 1-15: Trend of sea level change worldwide for the period 1993 to 2008 (NASA, 2008)

............................................................................................................................ 11

Figure 1-16: Global trends with regard to changes in the annual precipitation for the period

1901 to 2005 (top) and for 1979 to 2005 (bottom) using the GHCN precipitation

data from NCDC. For the gray areas, data are not available to draw conclusions

about trends (IPCC, 2007) ................................................................................... 13

Figure 2-1: Mean satellite remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) data from 1996

until 2011 ............................................................................................................ 17

Figure 2-2: Annual satellite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Levantine basin

from 1996-2011. Annual anomalies are calculated by removing the overall mean

from each year. Positive anomalies indicate higher than average SST values,

while negative anomalies indicate lower than average SSTs. ............................ 18

Figure 2-3: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1892 till 2010 in

Nicosia ................................................................................................................. 19

Figure 2-4: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1903 till 2010 in

Lemesos .............................................................................................................. 20

Figure 2-5: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for

the Nicosia station from 1892 till 2010............................................................... 21

Figure 2-6: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for

the Lemesos station from 1903 till 2010 ............................................................ 21


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Figure 2-7: Number of days with temperature 40oC or higher from Nicosia station for the

period 1961 - 2010 .............................................................................................. 22

Figure 2-8: Number of days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC from Nicosia station

for the period 1961 - 2010 .................................................................................. 22

Figure 2-9: Increase in the number of warm nights in Cyprus as it testified by stations’

records at Nicosia (1976 – 2000), Lemesos (1976 – 2006), Larnaca (1977 –

2007), Pafos (1983 – 2007), Prodromos (1976 – 2000) and Saittas (1976 – 2000)

............................................................................................................................ 23

Figure 2-10: Spatial mean annual temperature distribution for period 1981 – 1990 (A) in

contrast with the respective for period 2001 – 2008 (B) ................................... 24

Figure 2-11: Annual average precipitation (mm) in Cyprus from hydrological year 1901-02 till

2007-08 ............................................................................................................... 25

Figure 2-12: Decrease of annual mean precipitation in Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005 25

Figure 2-13: Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first .................... 26

Figure 2-14: Increase in the highest amounts of rainfall in 1 hour for the period 1971 – 2007

in contrast with the respective for the period 1930 – 1970 ............................... 27

Figure 2-15: Increasing trend in annual evapotranspiration as it testified by records at Pano

Amiantos station (1976 – 2006) and Akrotiri station (1986 – 2006) .................. 28

List of Tables Table 1-1: Contribution of different sources on total budget of the global mean sea level

change ................................................................................................................. 11

Table 1-2: Changes in extremes for phenomena over the specified region and period (IPCC,

2007) ................................................................................................................... 14


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Executive Summary

This report presents an update of the changes due to the increase in greenhouse gas

concentration in the atmosphere observed globally and in Cyprus.

Global mean surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906

– 2005). Moreover, eleven of the twelve hottest years since temperature observations

began occurred between 1995 and 2006. Greater warming has been observed over land

than over the ocean, and the changes of warming over time are only simulated by models

that include both natural and anthropogenic forcing. During the period 1961 to 2003 the

temperature of the oceans worldwide has increased by 0.10oC from the surface up to 700m

depth. Satellite observations of snow cover during the period 1966 - 2005 showed that it

declines each month except November and December with a stepwise drop of 5% in the

annual mean in the late 1980s. Regarding sea ice, satellite observations in the Arctic show a

decrease of 2.7 ± 0.6% per decade in the average annual rate of coverage since 1978. In the

20th century, the average sea level rise was 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year. The total 20th-century

rise is estimated to be 0.17 m. Precipitation data present a high natural variability and it is

difficult to reach conclusions whether precipitation changes are due to climate change or

due to natural processes.

Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea and experiences mild winters and

hot dry summers. The average daytime temperature in winter ranges from 12–15oC. In

summer, the average maximum temperature in coastal regions is 32◦C. Further inland, the

maximum temperature often reaches 40◦C. The wet season extends from November to

March, with most (approx. 60%) of the rain falling between December and February.

Meteorological observations for the period 1892–2010, show an increase in the annual

mean air temperature of the atmosphere of the order of 1.4oC in Nicosia and 2.3oC in

Lemesos. The number of hot days and warm nights has increased whereas the number of

days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC has greatly declined. The annual average

precipitation has fallen from 559 mm (1901–1930) to 463 mm (1971-2000), a decrease of

17%. Conversely, there has been an increase in heavy rainfall which falls in 1 hour for the

period 1930–2007. Evapotranspiration has increased by 60-80 mm in the period 1976-2006.


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1 Review on the observed changes and responses to climate change worldwide

1.1 Introduction to Global Climate Change

Climate change or global warming as otherwise called, is considered not only by scientists

but now also by citizens worldwide as one of the major problems that the planet and the

environment is facing nowadays. A survey conducted in the U.S. universities Yale and George

Mason (Leiserowitz, 2011) found that 57% of people surveyed believe that global warming is

real and alarming. Where Europe is concerned, the results of a recent Eurobarometer survey

(European Commission, 2011) showed that 51% of Europeans maintain that the main

problem currently is not the world economic recession, but climate change!

The changes occurring today in the global climate come from the uncontrolled burning of

fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution to today, which led to a huge increase in gas

concentration in the atmosphere, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous

oxide (N2O) (Fig. 1-1). The change of the atmosphere’s composition due to human activity

has contributed to global warming and the inevitable rise in temperature experienced by the

societies nowadays.

Anthropogenic global warming not only has serious environmental impacts on Earth such as

the cryosphere (glaciers melting, snow, permafrost, etc.), sea level rise, extreme weather

events (high-intensity rainfall, drought, frequent and more severe typhoons - cyclones, etc.),

but also economic and social impacts such as the destruction of coastal zones,

environmental migration, declining of water resources, degradation of agricultural land due

to desertification etc.

Figure 1-1: Increase of carbon dioxide (left), methane (middle) and nitrous oxide (right) concentration in the atmosphere from 1800 till today. The increase of carbon dioxide is from 278 ppm (pre-industrial era) to 379 ppm (today). The corresponding increase of the

methane is from 715 ppb to 1774 ppb, and finally nitrous oxide, the increase is from 270 ppb to 319 ppb (IPCC, 2007)


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1.2 Temperature rise

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) global mean

surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906 – 2005) (Fig.

1-2). Also, the rate of temperature increase over the last 50 years is almost double the

respective over the last 100 years (0.13°C ± 0.03°C vs. 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade).

Figure 1-2: Observed changes in global mean surface temperature of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007)

In addition, Jones and Moberg (2003) calculated the increase in average temperature of

the atmosphere of the continental regions of the world during the 20th century to 0.78oC

per 100 years. Although the increase was not constant throughout the 20th century*, the

last upward trend in temperature is statistically significant at a confidence level of 95% in

almost all residential areas of the planet. Also, the decade 1995 - 2005 was the warmest

of the last 500 years (WMO, 2006).

Furthermore, according to the IPCC (2007), 2005 was the warmest year ever recorded

since 1850 when the instrumental record of air temperature began. The second hottest

year was 1998 while 2002, 2003 and 2004 were respectively the third, fourth and fifth

warmest years. Moreover, eleven of the twelve hottest years since temperature

observations began occurred between 1995 and 2006.

Very important are also the results of the research team at the UC Berkeley (Rohde et al.,

2011), which used and compared 1.6 billion temperature records from 1800 to 2010 from

around the world and concluded that from 1950 until today the average temperature of

Earth has risen by 0.911 ± 0.042oC. The results are shown schematically in the following

diagrams (Fig. 1-3).

* Appeared

mainly in the

period 1920-

1945 and in 1975

until today.

Observed cooling

of the

atmosphere from

1945 to 1975

was probably

due to sun

obscuration from

anthropogenic

atmospheric

suspensions.


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Figure 1-3: Annual (left) and decadal (right) variations in the land-surface average temperature (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011)

Figure 1-4 shows the decadal average changes in the land temperature field. In the upper

plot, the comparison is drawn between the average temperature in 1900 to 1910 and the

average temperature in 2000 to 2010. In the lower plot, the same comparison is made but

using the interval 1960 to 1970 as the starting point. It is evident that warming is occurring

over all continents but it is more intense at high latitudes and less intense over southern

South America.

Figure 1-4: Maps showing the decadal average changes in the land temperature field (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011)


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Furthermore, Figure 1-5 shows that air temperature increase is occurring both over land and

oceans but is more intense over land. Also, as mentioned above, northern hemisphere is

affected more strongly than the south.

Figure 1-5: Warming trends 1976 – 2000 (UNEP, 2005)

Finally, as Figure 1-6 shows, the observed patterns of warming, including greater warming

over land than over the ocean, and their changes over time, are only simulated by models

that include both natural (solar activity and volcanoes) and anthropogenic forcing (burning

of fossil fuels).


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Figure 1-6: The global warming can only be explained by using models which take into account both human and natural pressures (IPCC, 2007)

As far as oceans are concerned, an increase is observed in the atmosphere over the oceans

which results in the rise of their temperature. According to IPCC (2007), during the period

1961 to 2003 the temperature of the oceans worldwide has increased by 0.10oC from the

surface up to 700m depth. Furthermore, the results of investigations of the National

Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) (2012) show a continuous increase in the heat content of oceans for

the period 1955 – 2011 from 0 m up to 700 m depth (Fig.1-7).

Figure 1-7: Increase in Global Ocean Heat Content from the surface to 700m depth for the period 1955 – 2011


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Additionally, Figure 1-8 testifies the undoubted increase of global ocean heat content in our

days as it shows the spatial distribution of heat content for the upper 700m of the world

oceans during 2011 in contrast to the respective in 1955.

Figure 1-8: Ocean heat content from 0 m – 700 m depth from 1955 (top) compared with 2011 (bottom) (NOAA-NODC, 2011)

1.3 Melting Ice – Snow

As mentioned above, the significant warming of the atmosphere observed today affects

significantly the cryosphere of the planet, i.e its surface that is covered with permanent

snow and/or ice. IPCC (2007) results show that snow cover has decreased in most areas of

the world, especially in Northern Hemisphere during spring and summer (Fig. 1-9). In

addition, in the Northern Hemisphere, satellite observations of snow cover during the period

1966 - 2005 showed that it declines each month except November and December with a

stepwise drop of 5% in the annual mean in the late 1980s (IPCC, 2007).


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Figure 1-9: Northern Hemisphere snow cover decrease during March – April (IPCC, 2007)

Regarding sea ice, results of satellite observations in the Arctic show a decrease of 2.7 ±

0.6% per decade in the average annual rate of coverage since 1978 (Fig. 1-10A). During

summer the coverage reduction increases and reaches a rate of 7.4 ± 2.4% since 1979 (IPCC,

2007). In the Southern Hemisphere, the few long records mostly show either decreases or

no changes in the past 40 years or more (Fig. 1-10B).

Figure 1-10: Changes in sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere (A) and Southern Hemisphere (B) based on microwave satellite data (IPCC, 2007)

A

B


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With regard to glaciers, IPCC (2007) states that the reduction of their mass is around 0.5 ±

0.18 mm/yr of sea level equivalent during the period 1961 to 2004 and 0.77 ± 0.22 mm/yr

during the period 1991 to 2004.

In addition, according to the National Center for Snow and Ice Data (2008) of the United

States, from 1961 to 2005 the thickness of glaciers worldwide decreased approximately 12

meters, or the equivalent of more than 9,000 cubic kilometers of water (Fig. 1-11)

Figure 1-11: Annual mean and cumulative changes in the thickness of ice for the period 1961 – 2005 (NSIDC, 2008)

Below there are two illustrative examples (Fig. 1-12, Fig. 1-13) on how glaciers respond to

climate change.

Figure 1-12: 1941-2004 comparison: Glacier Bay National Park and Reserve's White Thunder Ridge as seen on August 13, 1941 (left) and August 31, 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004)


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Figure 1-13: 1928-2000 comparison: These photos of the South Cascade Glacier in the Washington Cascade Mountains show dramatic retreat between 1928 and 2000 (USGS)

Finally, the effects of climate change on the cryosphere observed nowadays should include

those relating to permanently frozen ground or as otherwise called permafrost. IPCC (2007)

indicates that the temperature in the surface layer of permafrost has increased by more

than 3oC since 1980 in the Arctic while globally the thickness of permafrost has decreased at

a rate ranging from 0.04 m/yr to 0.02 m/yr from 1960 until today.

1.4 Sea-level Rise

Sea-level does rise according to IPCC (2007) (Fig. 1-14). During the period 1961 - 2003 the

average rise was 1.8 ± 0.5 mm per year. In the 20th century, the equivalent rise was 1.7 ± 0.5

mm per year. The total 20th-century rise is estimated to be 0.17 (0.12 to 0.22) m.

Figure 1-14: Increase in global average sea level as measured by observations (grey dots) and satellite data (red line) (IPCC, 2007)


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However, sea level rise is highly variable from region to region. While in some areas the rate

of sea-level rise is much higher than the average worldwide, in others, it is lower or it does

not exist (Fig. 1-15).

Figure 1-15: Trend of sea level change worldwide for the period 1993 to 2008 (NASA, 2008)

As Table 1-1 shows, sea level rise has several sources. Apart from ice melting (in any form), a

very significant rise is caused by thermal expansion of the oceans due to the increase of their

temperature.

Table 1-1: Contribution of different sources on total budget of the global mean sea level change

Source Sea Level Rise (mm per year)

1961 – 2003 1993 - 2003

Thermal expansion 0.42 ± 0.12 1.6 ± 0.5

Glaciers and ice caps 0.50 ± 0.18 0.77 ± 0.22

Greenland Ice Sheet 0.05 ± 0.12 0.21 ± 0.07

Antarctic Ice Sheet 0.14 ± 0.41 0.21 ± 0.35

1.5 Precipitation

Observations worldwide show that the changes in precipitation nowadays refer not only to

the quantity and intensity but also to the frequency and the type (rain, snow, hail, etc.)

(Salinger, 2005; IPCC, 2007). However, precipitation data present a high natural variability.

Natural phenomena such as El Niño or the North Atlantic Oscillation affect precipitation


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rates significantly, making it difficult to reach conclusions whether these changes are due to

climate change or due to natural processes. Long-term trends in the amount of precipitation

from 1900 to 2005 have already been observed (IPCC, 2007). Areas such as northeastern and

southern America, Northern Europe and North and Central Asia are wetter, while Sahel,

South Africa, Mediterranean and South Asia are drier. Also, according to the IPCC (2007), the

main type of precipitation that falls today in the northern areas is rain and not snow.

Moreover, in many parts of the world an increase in intense precipitation events has

become evident which is linked to the increase of water vapor in the atmosphere resulting

from the oceans due to worldwide warming (IPCC, 2007). Finally, in some areas there is an

increase in the occurrence of drought and severe flooding events.

The spatial patterns of trends in annual precipitation (% per century or per decade) during

the periods 1901 to 2005 and 1979 to 2005 are shown in Figure 1-16. The observed trends

over land areas were calculated using GHCN station data. For most of North America, and

especially over high-latitude regions in Canada, annual precipitation has increased during

the period from 1901 till 2005. The primary exception is over the southwest USA, northwest

Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, where the trend in annual precipitation has been negative (1

to 2% per decade) as drought has prevailed in recent years.

Also, across South America, increasingly wet conditions were observed over the Amazon

Basin and southeastern South America, including Patagonia, while negative trends in annual

precipitation were observed over Chile and parts of the western coast of the continent. The

largest negative trends in annual precipitation were observed over western Africa and the

Sahel. A drying trend is also evident over southern Africa since 1901. Over much of

northwestern India the 1901 to 2005 period shows increases of more than 20% per century,

but the same area shows a strong decrease in annual precipitation for the 1979 to 2005

period. Northwestern Australia shows areas with moderate to strong increases in annual

precipitation over both periods. Over most of Eurasia, increases in precipitation outnumber

decreases for both periods.


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Figure 1-16: Global trends with regard to changes in the annual precipitation for the period 1901 to 2005 (top) and for 1979 to 2005 (bottom) using the GHCN precipitation data from NCDC. For the gray areas, data are not available to draw conclusions about trends (IPCC, 2007)

1.6 Extreme weather events: heatwave, drought, flood, hurricane

Since 1950 an increasing number of heatwave events has been observed in many regions

around the world. An increase in the number of hot nights has also been recorded (IPCC,

2007). In addition, larger parts of the world have been affected by droughts as a combined

effect of rainfall decline and evapotranspiration increase. Still, heavy rainfall events which

lead to flooding have been intensified but this does not characterize a global trend. Finally,


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the number of tropical storms and hurricanes, although varying from year to year, has

generally increased in terms of their intensity and duration since the ˈ70s (IPCC, 2007).

Even though the archived data sets are not yet sufficient for determining long-term trends in

extremes, there are new findings on observed changes for different types of extremes (IPCC,

2007). A summary of the changes in extremes by phenomena, region and time is given in

Table 2 along with an assessment of the confidence in these changes.

Table 1-2: Changes in extremes for phenomena over the specified region and period (IPCC, 2007)

PHENOMENON Change Region Period Confidence

Low-temperature days/nights and frost days

Decrease, more so for nights than days

Over 70% of global land area

1951–2003 (last 150 years for Europe and China

Very likely

High – temperature days/nights

Increase, more so for nights than days

Over 70% of global land area

1951–2003 Very likely

Cold spells/snaps (episodes of several days)

Insufficient studies, but daily temperature changes imply a decrease

Warm spells (heat waves) (episodes of several days)

Increase: implicit evidence from changes of daily temperatures

Global 1951–2003 Likely

Cool seasons/warm seasons (seasonal averaged)

Some new evidence for changes in inter-seasonal variability

Central Europe 1961–2004 Likely

Heavy precipitation events (that occur every year)

Increase, generally beyond that expected from changes in the mean (disproportionate)

Many mid-latitude regions (even where reduction in total precipitation)

1951–2003 Likely

Rare precipitation events (with return periods > 10 yr)

Increase

Only a few regions have sufficient data for reliable trends (e.g., UK and USA

Various since 1893

Likely (consistent with changes inferred for more robust statistics

Drought (season/year) Increase in total area affected Many land regions of the world

Since 1970s Likely

Tropical cyclones Trends towards longer lifetimes and greater storm intensity, but no trend in frequency

Tropics Since 1970s

Likely; more confidence in frequency and intensity

Extreme extra tropical storms

Net increase in frequency/intensity and pole

NH land Since about 1950

Likely


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ward shift in track

Small-scale severe weather phenomena

Insufficient studies for assessment

1.7 Conclusions

Global mean surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906

– 2005). Moreover, eleven of the twelve hottest years since temperature observations

began occurred between 1995 and 2006. Greater warming has been observed over land

than over the ocean, and the changes of warming over time are only simulated by models

that include both natural and anthropogenic forcing. During the period 1961 to 2003 the

temperature of the oceans worldwide has increased by 0.10oC from the surface up to 700m

depth. Satellite observations of snow cover during the period 1966 - 2005 showed that it

declines each month except November and December with a stepwise drop of 5% in the

annual mean in the late 1980s. Regarding sea ice, satellite observations in the Arctic show a

decrease of 2.7 ± 0.6% per decade in the average annual rate of coverage since 1978. In the

20th century, the average sea level rise was 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year. The total 20th-century

rise is estimated to be 0.17 m. Precipitation data present a high natural variability and it is

difficult to reach conclusions whether precipitation changes are due to climate change or

due to natural processes. The frequency and intensity of extreme events (eg. heatwaves,

flash floods) has increased significantly.

References

European Commission (EC), (2011). Climate Change. Special Eurobarometer 372 / Wave EB75.4 – TNS opinion & social, 84pp

IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York, 996 pp.

Available at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html

Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003), ‘Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001’, Journal of Climate, 16, 206-23.

Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., & Smith, N. (2011) Climate change in the American Mind: Americans’ global warming beliefs and attitudes in May 2011. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.

Available at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html


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http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/ClimateBeliefsMay2011.pdf

National Bank of Greece, 2011. Climate Change Impacts Study Committee. Environment, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece. pp 521

Available at:

http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/results.aspx

National Center for Snow and Ice Data (2008). State of the Cryosphere: Is the cryoshere sending signals about climate change? United States

Available at:

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/glacier_balance.html

National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) (2012). Information from Center’s website

Available at:

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

Rohde, R., Curry, J., Groom D., Jacobsen, R., Muller A. R., Perlmutter, S., Rosenfeld, A., Wickham, C., Wurtele, J. (2011). Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project.

Available at:

http://berkeleyearth.org/

Salinger, M.J., 2005. Climate variability and change: past, present and future - An overview. Climate Change, 70: 9-29.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2006). WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2005. WMO-No. 998. Geneva – Switzerland. pp 12

http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/ClimateBeliefsMay2011.pdf

http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/results.aspx

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/glacier_balance.html

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

http://berkeleyearth.org/


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2 Review of the observed changes and responses to climate change in Cyprus

2.1 20th century climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean

The Mediterranean basin is one of the most sensitive hot-spots of the Earth's climate system

(Giorgi, 2006) and one of the most vulnerable regions in the world regarding climate change

(Alcamo et al., 2007, Giannakopoulos et al., 2009).

Lelieveld et al., 2012 examined the temperature tyrends over several cities in the Eatsern

Mediterranean/ Middle East (EMME) region and found statistically significant warming

trends over the regions typically varying from 0.28oC to 0.46oC per decade. The largest

increases appear in some continental locations such as Belgrade, Sofia, Ankara, Baghdad and

Riyadh with trends in excess of 0.4°C/decade. The same analysis was performed for

maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperature anomalies. For TX the largest upward trends

are calculated for Belgrade, Sofia, Tirana and Ankara with 0.48°, 0.46°, 0.45° and 0.44°C per

decade, respectively. The daytime maximum temperatures in Amman, Athens and Baghdad

are found to increase by 0.40°C/decade. For TN, large positive trends exceeding

0.40°C/decade are derived for Belgrade, Riyadh, Baghdad, Athens, Sofia and Ankara.

Interestingly, in the northern part of the EMME the maximum (daytime) temperatures TX

increase relatively strongly, whereas in the southern part the minimum (nighttime)

temperatures TN contribute most to climate warming. In general, most of these cities are

already exposed to high temperatures in summer, and should anticipate exceedingly hot

conditions.

Especially, scientific observations testify that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the

Mediterranean have been rising about twice as much as those of the global oceans (Samuel-

Rhoads, et al., in prep). In addition, the eastern side of the Mediterranean, where Cyprus

located, is experiencing more intensely the effects of climate change. Specifically, analyses

of annual mean satellite sea surface temperature data (Samuel-Rhoads, et al., in prep) reveal

that over the last 16 years (1996-2011) a general warming has occurred over the Levantine

Basin at an average rate of approximately 0.065C per year (Fig. 2-1).

Figure 2-1: Mean satellite remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) data from 1996 until 2011


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Moreover, Figure 2-2 depicts the spatial variability in the decadal warming in satellite SST

anomalies. The Eastern side of Mediterranean has positive anomalies (SST values higher

than the average) during the years 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The

highest SSTs appear in 2010 (Samuel-Rhoads, et al., in prep).

Figure 2-2: Annual satellite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Levantine basin from 1996-2011. Annual anomalies are calculated by removing the overall mean from each year. Positive anomalies

indicate higher than average SST values, while negative anomalies indicate lower than average SSTs.


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2.2 Climate of Cyprus

Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea, hence it belongs in the

Mediterranean climate zone and therefore, experiences mild winters and hot dry summers.

Winters are mild, with some rain and snow on Troodos mountains. In summer, the extension

of the summer Asian Thermal Low is evident throughout the eastern Mediterranean in all

seasonal circulation patterns (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007a,b), associated with high

temperatures and abundant sunshine. The average daytime temperature in winter ranges

from 12–15 ◦ C. In summer, the average maximum temperature in coastal regions is 32 ◦ C.

Further inland, the maximum temperature often reaches 40 ◦ C. The wet season extends

from November to March, with most (approx. 60%) of the rain falling between December

and February (Pashiardis, 2002). Precipitation is generally associated with the movement of

moist maritime flows to the North, occurring particularly over areas of high elevation

(Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007a). Winter precipitation is closely related to cyclogenesis in the

region (Mahairas et al., 2001). Nevertheless, it is not uncommon for isolated summer

thunderstorms to occur, which however contribute to less than 5% to the total annual

precipitation amount (Pashiardis, 2002). The characteristic summer aridity of the region has

significant implications in several socio-economic sectors. (Giannakopoulos et al., 2010)

2.3 Recent climate change in Cyprus

2.3.1 Temperature

Temperature records, for the period 1892 – 2010, from the Cyprus Meteorological Service

(CMS) (Pashiardis, 2011) for the stations in Nicosia (Fig. 2-3) and Lemesos (Fig. 2-4) show an

increase in the annual mean air temperature of the atmosphere of the order of 1.4oC in

Nicosia (Fig. 2-3) and 2.3oC in Lemesos (Fig.2-4).

Figure 2-3: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1892 till 2010 in Nicosia

CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011


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Figure 2-4: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1903 till 2010 in Lemesos

Moreover, as regards the annual mean air maximum and minimum temperature, both

temperatures show a slight increase for the Nicosia station (Fig. 2-5). On the contrary, the

annual mean air maximum temperature presents a slight decrease for the Lemesos station

while the annual mean air minimum temperature shows a significant increase (Fig. 2-6)

much larger than the respective one at the Nicosia station. Hadjinicolapou et al. (2011) have

found a less rapid warming In Tmin over the mountainous Saittas station, compared to

Nicosia and Limassol. This could suggest that the stronger observed warming over the

mainland and coastal cities (that both experienced a rapid population increase after 1974)

could possibly be an urbanization effect. But further work is need to be more conclusive.



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Figure 2-5: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for the Nicosia station from 1892 till 2010

Figure 2-6: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for the Lemesos station from 1903 till 2010

Additionally, as shown in the following figures, the number of days with temperature 40oC or

higher has increased (Fig. 2-7) whereas the number of days with temperatures less than or

equal to 0oC has greatly been reduced (Fig. 2-8) at the Nicosia station over the recent years.




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This indicates again that during the last decades there has been an increasing trend in the

minimum temperatures in Cyprus.

Figure 2-7: Number of days with temperature 40oC or higher from Nicosia station for the period 1961 - 2010

Figure 2-8: Number of days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC from Nicosia station for the period

1961 - 2010




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Furthermore, very important is the increase in the number of warm nights in almost all of

Cyprus as evidenced by the stations of Nicosia, Lemesos, Larnaca, Pafos, Prodromos and

Saittas (Hadjinicolaou, 2011) (Fig. 2-9).

Finally, the following annual mean temperature distributions present the temperature

changes between the periods 1981-1990 (Fig. 2-10A) and 2001-2008 (Fig. 2-10B). Over the

last decade the greatest part of Cyprus has suffered from high temperatures with the

Northern Cyprus (occupied part) showing the greatest temperature rise. Moreover, the

Figure 2-9: Increase in the number of warm nights in Cyprus as it testified by stations’ records at Nicosia (1976 – 2000), Lemesos (1976 – 2006), Larnaca (1977 – 2007), Pafos (1983 – 2007), Prodromos (1976 – 2000) and Saittas (1976 – 2000)


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three major cities of Cyprus, Nicosia, Larnaca and Lemesos where the largest part of the

population reside, are affected by high temperatures causing serious socioeconomic

problems such as increase in energy for cooling and water consumption and high population

discomfort.

Figure 2-10: Spatial mean annual temperature distribution for period 1981 – 1990 (A) in contrast with the respective for period 2001 – 2008 (B)

2.3.2 Precipitation

Data from the Cyprus Meteorological Service (Pashiardis, 2011) indicate that the amount of

rain which falls in the region has been declining year by year. As shown in the diagram below

(Fig. 2-11) the annual average precipitation has fallen from 559 mm (1901 – 1930) to 463


A

B


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-170 mm

mm (1971 to 2000), a decrease of 17%. The blue line in the diagram shows the declining

trend in precipitation.

According to Lange (2009) the reduction in rainfall for the period 1905 to 2005 was around

170mm (Fig. 2-12). Additionally, in 2008, Cyprus experienced a severe drought due to rainfall

reduction which was 45% lower

than the average of the period

2000 – 2007. As a result, water

reservoirs were filled in only 3%

of their capacity, prompting the

Cyprus government to spend

millions of Euros for water

import from Greece (Davenport,

2008). The severe problem of the

rainfall reduction in Cyprus is

depicted in the diagram below

(Fig. 2-13) which shows the

CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011 Figure 2-11: Annual average precipitation (mm) in Cyprus from hydrological year 1901-02 till 2007-08

Figure 2-12: Decrease of annual mean precipitation in Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005


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water stress index in other words the availability of water. Cyprus ranks first among the

European countries in terms of water stress index (Wintgens and Hochstrat, 2006 ).

Figure 2-13: Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first

Finally, as reflected by the diagram following (Fig. 2-14), observations show that there has

been an increase in heavy rainfall which falls in 1 hour for the period 1930 – 2007. These

extreme rainfall events may potentially cause localized flooding phenomena with

devastating impacts.


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Figure 2-14: Increase in the highest amounts of rainfall in 1 hour for the period 1971 – 2007 in contrast with the respective for the period 1930 – 1970

2.3.3 Evapotranspiration

Another important parameter for Cyprus is the increase in evapotranspiration. As shown in

Figure 2-15, evapotranspiration has increased by 60-80 mm in the period 1976 - 2006. This,

combined with temperature rise and rainfall decrease, intensifies the drying of soils and

leads gradually to their desertification.

CM

S, S

telio

s P

ash

iard

is, 2

01

1


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Figure 2-15: Increasing trend in annual evapotranspiration as it testified by records at Pano Amiantos station (1976 – 2006) and Akrotiri station (1986 – 2006)

2.4 Conclusions

Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea and experiences mild winters and

hot dry summers. The average daytime temperature in winter ranges from 12–15oC. In

summer, the average maximum temperature in coastal regions is 32◦C. Further inland, the

maximum temperature often reaches 40◦C. The wet season extends from November to

March, with most (approx. 60%) of the rain falling between December and February.

Meteorological observations for the period 1892–2010, show an increase in the annual

mean air temperature of the atmosphere of the order of 1.4oC in Nicosia and 2.3oC in

Lemesos. The number of hot days and warm nights has increased whereas the number of

days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC has greatly declined. The annual average

precipitation has fallen from 559 mm (1901–1930) to 463 mm (1971-2000), a decrease of

17%. Conversely, there has been an increase in heavy rainfall which falls in 1 hour for the

period 1930–2007. Evapotranspiration has increased by 60-80 mm in the period 1976-2006.

CM

S, S

telio

s P

ash

iard

is, 2

01

1


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References

Alcamo, J., J.M. Moreno, B. Nováky, M. Bindi, R. Corobov, R.J.N. Devoy, C. Giannakopoulos, E. Martin, J.E. Olesen, A. Shvidenko, 2007: Europe. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580.

Available at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch12.html

Davenport, S., (2008) Drought in Cyprus, Weather News. Weather – November 2008, Vol. 63, No. 11.

Available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.345/pdf

Giorgi, F., 2006: Climate change Hot-Spots. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L08707.

Hadjinicolaou, P., Giannakopoulos, C., Zerefos, C., Lange, A. M., Pashiardis, S., Lelieveld J. (2011). Mid-21st century climate and weather extremes in Cyprus as projected by six regional climate models. Reg Environ Change, Vol. 11, pp441–457

Kostopoulou, E. and Jones, P. D. (2007a) Comprehensive analysis of the climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean, Part I: Map pattern classification, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1189–1214.

Kostopoulou, E., & Jones, P. D. (2007b). Comprehensive analysis of the climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean, Part II: relationships between atmospheric circulation patterns and surface climatic elements, Int. J. Climatol. , 27 (10), 1351-1371.

Lange A. Manfred, (2009). Climate Change and Water Scarcity on Cyprus. Cyprus Climate Conference. Climate Change: A Challenge for Europe and Cyprus, 27th - 29th November 2009. Nicosia, Cyprus

Available at:

http://www.cyprus-climate-conference.info/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=20&Itemid=25

Lelieveld, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Chenoweth, J., El Maayar, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Hannides, C., Lange, M., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Xoplaki, E. (2012). Climate change and impacts in the eastern mediterranean and the middle east. Climatic Change , (pp. 1-21), http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4

Maheras P, Flocas HA, Patrikas I, Chr (2001) A 40 year objective climatology of surface cyclones in the mediterranean region: spatial and temporal distribution. Int J Climatol 21(1):109–130.

Pashiardis, S. (2002) Trends of precipitation in Cyprus rainfall analysis for agricultural planning, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Climagri Workshop, on Development of a regional net-work on climate change and agriculture for the countries in the Mediterranean region, FAO’s headquarters, Rome, Italy.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch12.html

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4


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Pashiardis, S., (2011). Climate Change in Cyprus. Cyprus Meteorological Service. Presentation for the World Meteorological Day, 23/03/2011

Samuel-Rhoads Y., Zodiatis G., Iona S., Hayes D., Georgiou G., Konnaris G., Nicolaides M., (in prep). Climate Change Impacts on Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity in the Eastern Mediterranean, Levantine Basin.

Wintgens, T., Hochstrat, R. (2006). Report on integrated water reuse concepts. AQUAREC – EVK1-CT-2002-00130.

Available at:

http://www.amk.rwth-aachen.de/fileadmin/files/Forschung/Aquarec/D19_final_2.pdf

http://www.amk.rwth-aachen.de/fileadmin/files/Forschung/Aquarec/D19_final_2.pdf

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