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Observed Plata River level and wind field change
Atributtion and MCG scenarios
Vicente Barros San José de Costa Rica
May 27, 2003
Area of concern
MEAN LEVELat Buenos Aires Port: 1.7 0.1 mm/año
(D’Onofrio, SHN)
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Tiempo (años)
Niv
el d
el a
gu
a (m
m)
Nivel medio anual Nivel medio filtrado Recta de regresión
y = 15.7x + 660.06
R2 = 0.6051
y = 19.567x + 713.61
R2 = 0.8219
y = 15.8x + 779.44
R2 = 0.8601
y = 15.85x + 800.19
R2 = 0.918
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Alt
ura
(m
m)
SUMMER
AUITUMN
WINTER
SPRING
Seasonal trends of River level at Buenos Aires port (1912-2001)
Fuente: D’Onofrio y Fiore (2002)
y = 14.058x + 965.21
R2 = 0.4472
y = 9.8291x + 906.56
R2 = 0.3508
y = 17.238x + 862.84
R2 = 0.4816
y = 11x + 947.39
R2 = 0.4609
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1938
/194
7
1948
/195
7
1958
/196
7
1968
/197
7
1978
/198
7
1988
/199
7
Alt
ura
(m
m)
Mar-Abr-May Jun-Jul-Ago Sep-Oct-Nov Dic-Ene-Feb
Seasonal trends of River level at Montevideo
Observed changes in sea level pressure and wind fields
1951-1960 1991-2000
AA
year
latit
ude
-40
-38
-36
-34
-32
-30
-28
-26
-24
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NCEP Station data
Figure 2. Annual mean position of the maximum sea level pressure on the South American coast
derived from the NCEP reanalyses and station data
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 1 - NCEP - 46.1 %
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 2 - NCEP - 45.1%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
a ) b )
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
MODEL 1MODEL 2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
MODEL 1MODEL 2
c ) d )
F ig u r e 3 . a ) P C A 1 (M o d e l 1 ) , b ) P C A 2 (M o d e l 2 ) , c ) S e r ie s o f F a c to r lo a d in g s r e la te d to M o d e l 1 a n d M o d e l 2 , d ) I d e m c ) b u t c o n s id e r in g S u m m e r s e a s o n .
MODEL 1 MODEL 2
TOTAL 46.1 45.1
SUMMER 5.2 18.2
AUTUMN 15.1 7.5
WINTER 20.7 2.9
SPRING 5.1 16.4
Table 1: Total percentages of variance associated to each MODEL and their respective percentages of variance for each season.
Atributtion of the southward shift of the western border of the South Atlantic high
model Institution periodHADCM3 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction
and Research – REINO UNIDO1950-2099
CSIRO-mk2 Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation - AUSTRALIA
1961-2100
ECHAM4 Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie - ALEMANIA
1990-2100
GFDL-R30 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – ESTADOS UNIDOS
1961-2100
NCAR-PCM National Centre for Atmospheric Research - ESTADOS UNIDOS
1980-2099
CCCma Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis - CANADÁ
1900-2100
Validation of Climate Models
Validation of GCM experiments:Sea level pressure
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
NCEP (observed) (1950-2000) HADCM3 (1950-2000)
Campos medios anuales
corr
ela
tion c
oeffic
ient
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
JanuaryFebruary
MarchApril
MayJune
JulyAugust
SeptemberOctober
NovemberDecember
HADCM3
CSIRO
CCCMA
NCAR
ECHAM4
GFDL
LMD
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Climate model validation:
sea level pressure
The models that best represent the mean sea level pressure and its seasonal variability are:
HADCM3
GFDL-R30ECHAM4
CSIRO-Mk2
Figure 6: Model 1 (upper panel) y Model 2 (bottom panel) of HADCM3, CSIRO and GFDL GCM models.
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 2 - HADCM3 - 42.8%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 1 - HADCM3 - 47.1%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 1 - CSIRO - 52.3%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 2 - CSIRO - 43.9%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 1 - GFDL - 51.5%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 2 - GFDL - 37.0%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
HADCM3CSIROGFDL
MODEL 1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
HADCM3CSIROGFDL
MODEL 2
Time series of factor loadings
related to GCM models.
GCMs, only driven by GHGs and aerosol concentration trends, show the same trend as the observed SLP field
Further evidences:
Future scenarios
-66.0 -63.5 -61.0 -58.5 -56.0 -53.5 -51.0 -48.5 -46.0
PCA 2 - HADCM3 - 40.4%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 1 - HADCM3 - 49.8%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
MODEL2 MODEL 1
HADCM3
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
CPA 1 - CSIRO - 49.4%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
CPA 2 - CSIRO - 46.5%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
MODEL 1MODEL 2
CSIRO
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
PCA 2 - ECHAM - 38.3%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0
CPA 1 - ECHAM - 41.4%
-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
F i g u r e 7 : a ) M o d e l 1 ( l e f t c o l u m n ) y M o d e l 2 ( c e n t e r c o l u m n ) o b t a i n e d b y H A D C M 3 , C S I R O a n d E C H A M G C M m o d e l s . F o r e c a s t e d 2 0 0 1 / 2 1 0 0 . b ) , c ) , d ) y e )
( r i g h t c o l u m n ) T i m e s e r i e s o f m e a n d e c a d a l e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e r e l a t e d t o a l l t h e G C M m o d e l s c o n s i d e r i n g t h e c l i m a t o l o g y a n d f o r e c a s t e d p e r i o d .
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
MODEL 2MODEL1
ECHAM
HADCM3 MODEL 1 MODEL 2 1951
2000 2001 2050
2051 2099
TOTAL 1951 2000
2001 2050
2051 2099
TOTAL
SUMMER 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 7.8 8.1 7.9 23.8 AUTUMN 4.4 3.5 2.3 10.2 3.1 3.9 4.7 11.7 WINTER 7.5 7.8 7.3 22.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8
SPRING 3.3 2.5 1.3 7.1 3.7 4.4 5.5 13.6
CSIRO MODEL 1 MODEL 2 1961
2000 2001 2050
2051 2099
TOTAL 1961 2000
2001 2050
2051 2099
TOTAL
SUMMER 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 6.4 8.6 8.5 23.5 AUTUMN 5.2 5.9 4.4 15.5 1.7 2.7 4.0 8.4 WINTER 7.0 8.8 8.5 24.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
SPRING 2.7 3.0 2.9 8.6 3.9 5.2 5.2 14.3
ECHAM MODEL 1 MODEL 2 1991
2000 2001 2050
2051 2099
TOTAL 1991 2000
2001 2050
2051 2099
TOTAL
SUMMER 0.03 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.8 10.2 10.3 22.3 AUTUMN 1.6 5.6 3.7 10.9 0.3 3.4 4.9 8.6
WINTER 2.2 10.5 9.5 22.2 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.2
SPRING 0.7 2.2 1.3 4.2 0.6 3.7 4.8 9.1
Table 4: Interannual Variability of the percentages of variance associated to Model 1 (left column) and Model 2 (right column), and
their respective percentages of variance for Climatology and Forecasted samples, using HADCM3, CSIRO, GFDL and ECHAM
GCM models.
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-201990-2000 2050-2099
Sea level pressure fields:ECHAM4 experiment
Campos medios anuales
( F O R E C A S T E D 2 0 0 1 / 2 0 5 0 - C L I M A T O L O G Y ) A N N U A L
H A D C M 3
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
C S I R O
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
E C H A M
-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0-45.0
-42.5
-40.0
-37.5
-35.0
-32.5
-30.0
-27.5
-25.0
( F O R E C A S T E D 2 0 5 1 / 2 0 9 9 - C L I M A T O L O G Y ) A N N U A L
( F O R E C A S T E D 2 0 5 1 / 2 0 9 9 - C L I M A T O L O G Y ) A N N U A L
H A D C M 3
-67 .5 -65 .0 -62 .5 -60 .0 -57 .5 -55 .0 -52 .5 -50 .0 -47 .5 -45 .0-45 .0
-42 .5
-40 .0
-37 .5
-35 .0
-32 .5
-30 .0
-27 .5
-25 .0
C S I R O
-67 .5 -65 .0 -62 .5 -60 .0 -57 .5 -55 .0 -52 .5 -50 .0 -47 .5 -45 .0-45 .0
-42 .5
-40 .0
-37 .5
-35 .0
-32 .5
-30 .0
-27 .5
E C H A M
-67 .5 -65 .0 -62 .5 -60 .0 -57 .5 -55 .0 -52 .5 -50 .0 -47 .5 -45 .0-45 .0
-42 .5
-40 .0
-37 .5
-35 .0
-32 .5
-30 .0
-27 .5
-25 .0
Average(55°-57.5°W) Meridional gradient between 3?°S and 3?°S
Model/Reanalysis 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1081-1990 1991-2000 2001-2050 2051-2099
NCEP 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.4 ---- ----
HADLEY 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.9
CSIRO --- 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7
GFDL --- 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.3
ECHAM --- --- --- --- 1.7 2.0 2.3
The end