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Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting for Ocean Recreational and Commercial Troll Salmon Fisheries off Oregon, 2012 BRIEFING DOCUMENTS: 2011 Season Summary 2012 Management Process Schedule 2011 Escapement Estimates 2012 Stock Abundance Forecasts and other materials Sponsored by Oregon Coastal Zone Management Association and Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Hallmark Inn and Resort Newport, Oregon February 28, 2012
Transcript
Page 1: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting

for

Ocean Recreational and Commercial Troll

Salmon Fisheries off Oregon, 2012

BRIEFING DOCUMENTS:

2011 Season Summary

2012 Management Process Schedule

2011 Escapement Estimates

2012 Stock Abundance Forecasts

and other materials

Sponsored by

Oregon Coastal Zone Management Association and

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife

Hallmark Inn and Resort Newport, Oregon February 28, 2012

mckenza
Text Box
Attachment 5
Page 2: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

1

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Page 3: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

2

MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. Nov-Dec

Newport

Coos Bay

Twin Rocks

Mar-Apr

Astoria

Newport

Garibaldi

Bandon

Florence

Pacific City

Depoe Bay

Winchester Bay

Charleston

Port Orford

Gold Beach

Brookings

Ilwaco, WA

Cape Falcon

Leadbetter Pt

Cape Falcon to Humbug Mt.

Open for All Salmon

Selective Coho Season

Quota = 15,000 fin-clipped coho

July 2-Aug. 13Catch = 6,123 coho

(rel. = 11,430)

US/Canada to Cape Falcon

Fin-clipped Chin. Quota = 4,800June 18-25

OR Catch = 58 Chin. (rel. 394)WA Catch = 266 Chin.

Cape Falcon to Humbug Mt.

All Salmon Except Coho(all Chinook within 15 fathoms off Tillamook

between Twin Rocks and Pyramid Rock must be fin-clipped through July 31)

March 15-Sept. 30Catch = 2,280 Chin.

Humbug Mt.

All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip

All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. No more than 1 Chinook allowed in bag limit prior to 8/7, from 8/14-8/28, and from 9/5-30. Closed to Chinook retention from 8/29-9/4All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. No more than 1 Chinook allowed in bag limit prior to 8/7, from 8/14-8/28, and from 9/5-30. Closed to Chinook retention from 8/29-9/4All salmon except coho, 2 per day All salmon except coho, 2 per day

All salmon except coho, 2 per day. All Chinook must have a healed adipose fin clip

All salmon, 2 per day. Open for all salmon (no fin-clip restriction on retained coho)

Cape Falcon to Humbug Mt.

Non-select ive Coho Season

Open for All Salmon

Quota = 3,000 5,900 coho

Sept. 1-3 and Sept. 8-10

Sept. 1-10 7Catch = 6,623 coho

Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open in state waters (0-3 miles) Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open in state waters (0-3 miles)

Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open inside ~20 fathoms Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open inside ~20 fathoms

Chinook salmon only, 1 per day, not more than 5 per season. Open in state waters (0-3 miles)Chinook salmon only, 1 per day, not more than 5 per season. Open in state waters (0-3 miles)

Leadbetter Pt. to Cape FalconFin-clipped Coho Quota = 33,600Chinook Guideline = 7,400 7,710

June 26-Sept. 30Catch: OR = 1,559 Chin. (rel. 7,203)

6,035 coho (rel. 3,551)WA = 5,330 Chin; 20,632 coho

State Waters Chetco Chinook Oct. 1-12No Quota

Catch = 289 Chinook

Humbug Mt. to OR/CA BorderAll Salmon Except Coho

May 14-September 5Catch = 647 Chin.

State Waters Elk Chinook Nov. 1-30No Quota

Catch = 6 Chin.

State Waters Tillamook Chinook

Oct. 1-31No Quota

Catch = 318 Chin.

Ocean Recreational Salmon Seasons, Quotas, and Landings off Oregon, 2011

Page 4: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

33

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

An

gle

r T

rip

s (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 '01 03 '05 '07 '09 '11

Year

Ocean Sport Salmon Effort by Area

Columbia R.

Tillamook

Newport

Coos Bay

Brookings

48,700 Angler-Trips

Sport Effort by Port, 2011

Astoria15%

Garibaldi22%

Depoe Bay8%

Newport16%

Other Ports1%

Winchester Bay14%

Charleston6%

Brookings13%Pacific City

5%

Page 5: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Co

ho

(th

ou

san

ds)

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Year

Ocean Sport Coho Landings by Area

Columbia R.

Tillamook

Newport

Coos Bay

Brookings

18,800 Coho

Sport Coho Landings by Port, 2011

Astoria31%Garibaldi

20%

Pacific City10%

Depoe Bay14%

Newport18%

Winchester Bay4%

Other Ports1%

Charleston2%

Page 6: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ch

ino

ok

(th

ou

san

ds)

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Year

Ocean Sport Chinook Landings by Area

Columbia R.

Tillamook

Newport

Coos Bay

Brookings

5,200 Chinook

Sport Chinook Landings by Port, 2011

Astoria31%

Garibaldi18%Pacific City

4%

Depoe Bay4%

Newport5%

Winchester Bay14%

Charleston5%

Brookings18%

Other Ports1%

Page 7: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

6

50 C

hin

ook

per

cale

ndar

wee

k

MAY JUNE AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV.APRIL JULY

All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed into Oregon. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length.All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed into Oregon. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length.

All salmon except coho. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt ., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt . Vessels fishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Chinook 28”minimum length. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext . 271

All salmon except coho. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt ., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt . Vessels fishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Chinook 28”minimum length. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext . 271

All salmon except coho. Landing and possession limit of 30 Chinook per day. All fish must be landed and delivered to Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings and within 24 hours of any closure. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length. Quota remaining from the June and/or July seasons will be carried forward to the next quota period on an impact neutral basis. All landings must be reported within one hour of delivery at (541)867-0300 ext. 252

All salmon except coho. Landing and possession limit of 30 Chinook per day. All fish must be landed and delivered to Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings and within 24 hours of any closure. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length. Quota remaining from the June and/or July seasons will be carried forward to the next quota period on an impact neutral basis. All landings must be reported within one hour of delivery at (541)867-0300 ext. 252

All salmon. All retained coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt. Vessels f ishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Open period landing and possession limits of: 50 Chin. and 50 coho July 1-12; 30 Chin. and 50 coho July 15-Aug. 9; 12 Chin. and 50 coho Aug. 19; 12 Chin. and 75 coho Aug. 27-29; and 20 Chin. and 100 coho Sept. 3-6 and Sept. 10-13. Chinook minimum length 28”, coho minimum length 16”. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext. 271

All salmon. All retained coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt. Vessels f ishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Open period landing and possession limits of: 50 Chin. and 50 coho July 1-12; 30 Chin. and 50 coho July 15-Aug. 9; 12 Chin. and 50 coho Aug. 19; 12 Chin. and 75 coho Aug. 27-29; and 20 Chin. and 100 coho Sept. 3-6 and Sept. 10-13. Chinook minimum length 28”, coho minimum length 16”. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext. 271

MAR.

All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed in Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28”minimum length. Special notif ication restrict ions apply.All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed in Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28”minimum length. Special notif ication restrict ions apply.

April 15-July 9; July 17-Aug. 31; and Oct. 1-31No Quota

Prior to August 1, within the 15 fathom curve off Tillamook Bay between Twin Rocks and Pyramid Rock, only

fin-clipped Chinook salmon may be on board while fishing.50 Chinook per vessel per calendar week in October

Landings: April through Aug. = 24,362 Chin.; Oct.= 1,176

July 1-Aug. 9: Open periods of Fri.-Tues. of each week;Open periods of Aug. 19, Aug. 27-29, Sept. 3-6, and Sept. 10-13

Chinook Quota=10,300Marked Coho Quota=12,800

Open period limits described belowOR Landings = 379 Chin. and 464 coho

May 1-June 21 no landing limits, and June 23-30 with a 30 Chin.

per open period limitChin. Quota = 20,600

OR Landings = 2,457 Chin.

Twin Rocks

State Waters Chetco ChinookOct. 13-31 or Chin. Quota=750 Daily landing and possession

limit of 20 ChinookLandings = 104 Chin.

June 1-Aug. 31Quotas: June = 1,500;

July = 1,200; and Aug. = 1,000 2,950Single Daily Landing and Possession

Limit of 30 Chinook per VesselLandings: June = 240; July = 30;

and Aug. = 331 Chin.

May 1-31 No Quota

Landings = 612 Chin.

Newport

Coos Bay

Astoria

Newport

Garibaldi

Bandon

Florence

Pacific City

Depoe Bay

Charleston

Port Orford

Gold Beach

Brookings

Ilwaco, WA

Cape Falcon

Leadbetter Pt.

Humbug Mt.

Twin Rocks

Pyramid Rock

43º31’00” N Lat.

Crooked Cr.

State Waters Coos-Coquille ChinookSept. 1-30 No Quota

inside 30 fathoms N. of Seven Devils Weekly landing and possession

limit of 50 ChinookLandings = 206 Chin.

Cape Blanco

State Waters Elk ChinookNov. 1-30 No Quota

Open inside line at ~20 fathomsDaily landing and possession

limit of 20 ChinookLandings = 1,954 Chin.

State Waters Tillamook ChinookSept. 1-30 No Quota

Weekly landing and possession limit of 25 Chinook

Landings = 82 Chin.

Ocean Commercial Troll Salmon Seasons, Quotas, and Landings off Oregon, 2011

Page 8: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Year

Troll Effort by Area

Columbia R.

Tillamook

Newport

Coos Bay

Brookings

3,700 Boat-Days

Troll Effort (Deliveries) by Port, 2011

Astoria8%Garibaldi

7%Newport

18%

Winchester Bay4%

Charleston32%

other ports2%

Brookings10%

Port Orford19%

Page 9: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Co

ho

(th

ou

san

ds

)

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Year

Troll Coho Landings by Area

Columbia R.

Tillamook

Newport

Coos Bay

Brookings

464 Coho

Troll Coho Landings by Port, 2011

Astoria79%

Garibaldi21%

Page 10: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ch

ino

ok

(th

ou

sa

nd

s)

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11

Year

Troll Chinook Landings by Area

Columbia R.

Tillamook

Newport

Coos Bay

Brookings

31,900 Chinook

Troll Chinook Landings by Port, 2011

Newport17%

Other Ports0%

Winchester Bay2%

Charleston55%

Port Orford10%

Brookings4%

Astoria9%

Garibaldi3%

Page 11: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

10

Mar. 3-7 Pacific Fishery Management Council

Doubletree

* Continued negotiations - Puget Sound

* Ocean/Puget/Columbia River salmon season negotiations

North of Falcon I (Public Meeting)

* Ocean and state waters salmon fishery options

Olympia, WA

* 2012 Salmon season discussions

Feb. 28 Newport, OROcean Salmon Industry Group

Feb. 28 CDFG Public Meeting Santa Rosa, CA

* 2012 Forecasts

Seattle, WA

* 2012 Salmon season discussions

Sacramento, CA

* Public input on 2012 season options

* Adopt 2012 ocean salmon options for public review

Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission Corvallis, OR

Mar. 12

Mar. 9

Mar. 28 North of Falcon II (Public Meeting) Lynnwood, WA

Coos Bay, OR

Columbia River Fisheries Discussion Vancouver, WA

* ODFW, WDFW, Public

2012 Ocean Fishery Process Schedule

* 2012 Salmon season discussions

Feb. 28 WDFW Public Meeting

* 2012 Forecasts

Olympia, WA

* 2012 Forecasts

Apr. 1-6 Pacific Fishery Management Council

* Adopt 2012 ocean salmon fishery regulations

Mar. 14

Mar. 26 PFMC Public Options Hearing

Red Lion

Eureka, CA

* Adopt state waters ocean salmon fishery regulations ODFW HQApr. 20 Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission

Sheraton (Downtown)Salem, OR

Mar. 26 PFMC Public Options Hearing Westport, WA

* Public input on 2012 season options

* Public input on 2012 season options

Mar. 27 PFMC Public Options Hearing

Mar. 26 North of Falcon II (Public Meeting) Olympia, WA

* Continued negotiations - ocean and Columbia River

Page 12: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

11

Oregon Production Area Hatchery Coho Abundance Estimates, 1970-2011

2,99

53,

922

2,14

53,

297

1,88

54,

329

1,19

41,

939

1,69

01,

347

1,25

0 1,45

869

6 798

844

2,50

095

8

798

1,99

163

536

425

321

818

321

520

4 320

677

1,39

666

095

363

544

344

147

7 565

1,06

655

144

2

1,78

4

1,77

9

2,16

3

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f Coh

o

.

OCN Coho Spawner Escapement Lakes and Rivers, 1990-2011

1831 42 46 43 46

66

23 2338

68

166

247219

179150

109

63

156

248 248275

47

210 6 11

13

9 11

20

22

17

19

15

24

9

24

1739

20

13

13

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f Coh

o

.

Lakes

Rivers

Page 13: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

12

OCN Spawner Escapement by Sub-Aggregate Including Full Seeding Levels, 2008-2011

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2008 2009 2010 2011 Full Seeding

Tho

usan

ds o

f Spa

wne

rs

North

North-Central

South-CentralSouth

Columbia River Tule Chinook Ocean Escapement, 1984-2011

150 144

353

322

158

79

115

69 72 80

109

6648

219

317336

284

171

86

47

154

126

234

179

85 9092

171

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Year

Tho

usa

nds

of C

hin

ook

Page 14: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

13

Klamath River Natural Fall Chinook Adult Spawner Escapement, 1978-2011

59

22

34

16

26

113

102

79

44

1612 12

22

162

81

46 43

19

8378

66

88

24 27 30

61

31

4437

48

3132

3132

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f C

hino

ok

Natural Spawner Floor

35,000

Sacramento River Adult Fall Chinook Escapements, 1970-2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f Chi

nook

Goal Range of 122,000 - 180,000

Page 15: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

14

Coho

Chinook

(Fall Chinook)

Rogue Fall

North Migrating

1/ Preseason expectations to the mouth of the Columbia River.

Upriver Spring

Willamette Spring

198,400

104,100

Oregon Coast Fair Returns

Fall Brights

Lower River Wild

498,200

12,500

Tules 249,900

Columbia River 1/

729,900

249,400

375,100Hatchery 442,300

Postseason

311,600 62,200

age 4 - 61,600

PreseasonExpectations

Oregon Production Index (OPI)

Sacramento Index

OCN

Klamath

Post - Pre

-70,800

-88,200

-530,600

-71,9005,100

67,200

Index - 45,000 NA

199,300

232,70066,700

age 3 - 304,600

221,200

80,300

Improved survey results and returns.

179,100

410,000

15,200 2,700

22,800

-23,800

LCN 22,700 23,400 700

2011 Ocean Abundance Estimates for Select Salmon Stocks,Preseason vs. Postseason

Page 16: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

15

OPI Coho Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison

630

316267

204 231

432

762

904

674

1,341

848

761770

260

972

1,673

271

1,267

630 631

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f Coh

o

PostseasonForecast

OPI Hatchery Coho Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison

513

223 214139

215 204

320

1,396

443 441

1,066

551

442

565

677

953

635660

183

477

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f Coh

o

Postseason

Forecast

Page 17: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

16

OCN Coho Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison

86

28 29

52

69

163

305

279

197

150

116

60

257267

312

171

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f Coh

o

PostseasonForecast

Columbia R. Tule Chinook Ocean Escapement Forecast for 2012 with Postseason Estimate and

Preseason Forecast Comparison

150 144

353

322

158

79

115

69 72 80

109

6648

219

317336

284

86

47

152

126

179

234

171171

929085

191

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f Chi

nook

.

Postseason

Forecast

Page 18: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

17

Klamath R. Fall Chinook Age-3 Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison

192 140 356 514 400 160 190 91 377

1,568

233195

68129 617155 241

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f C

hino

ok

.

Postseason Abundance

Preseason Forecast

Klamath R. Fall Chinook Age-4 Forecast for 2012 with to Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison

226 63 30 134 99 192 105 38 63 34

80

6662214445 810

50

100

150

200

250

300

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Year

Th

ou

san

ds

of

Ch

ino

ok

.

Postseason Abundance

Preseason Forecast

Page 19: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

18

Sacramento R. Fall Chinook Escapements andHarvest, 1983-2011; and 2012 Index

819.4

0

500

1000

1500

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Year

Tho

usan

ds o

f C

hino

ok

Index Escapement Ocean Harvest River Harvest

180

122

Coho

Chinook

(Fall Chinook)

Rogue Fall

North Migrating

1/ Preseason expectations to the mouth of the Columbia River.

Upriver Spring 115,800 more than 2011 Forecast

Willamette Spring 20,700 less than 2011 Forecast

314,200

83,400

Fall Brights 53,900 less than 2011 Forecast Lower River Wild 3,700 more than 2011 Forecast

444,30016,200

Tules 59,100 less than 2011 Forecast 190,800

Index - 45,000 28,200 more than 2011 Forecast

Increasing spawner countssuggest improving trends

Columbia River 1/

Oregon Coast

33,400 less than 2011 Forecast

OCN 291,000

Klamath 1,263,000 more than 2011 Forecastage 3 -1,567,600

41,600 more than 2011 Forecast

LCN 30,100 7,400 more than 2011 Forecast

Preliminary 2012 Ocean Abundance Forecasts for SelectSalmon Stocks

CommentsPreseason

Expectations

Fair to Good Returns

age 4 - 79,600 18,000 more than 2011 Forecast

Hatchery 341,700

Oregon Production Index (OPI)

Sacramento Index 819,400 89,500 more than 2011 Forecast

Page 20: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

19

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

NORT

HERN

Ne

cani

cum

253

946

728

474

5,24

72,

896

3,06

82,

198

1,21

875

043

11,

055

3,82

74,

445

1,84

21,

959

Ne

hale

m

1,17

31,

190

3,71

314

,285

22,3

1020

,903

33,0

5918

,736

10,4

5111

,614

14,0

3317

,205

21,7

5332

,215

14,2

7015

,794

Ti

llam

ook

388

271

2,17

51,

983

1,88

315

,715

14,5

842,

532

1,99

58,

774

2,29

54,

828

16,2

5114

,890

21,5

127,

338

Ne

stuc

ca27

116

92,

201

1,17

13,

940

13,0

038,

929

4,69

568

61,

876

394

1,84

44,

252

1,94

78,

754

3,60

9

In

d. T

ribs.

610

470

7116

066

12,

116

1,12

137

663

92,

052

1,47

31,

409

669

TO

TAL

2,14

62,

576

8,86

417

,913

33,4

5152

,533

59,6

4028

,822

16,4

6624

,135

17,5

2925

,571

48,1

3554

,970

47,7

8729

,369

NORT

H CE

NTRA

L

Sa

lmon

237

817

50

310

372

01,

642

7951

359

652

753

1,38

23,

528

647

Si

letz

336

394

706

3,55

31,

437

2,25

29,

736

8,17

914

,567

5,20

52,

197

20,6

3424

,070

6,28

326

,964

8,43

4

Y

aqui

na38

436

52,

588

647

3,03

923

,981

13,2

545,

539

3,44

14,

247

3,15

810

,913

11,1

828,

589

19,0

657,

359

Be

aver

Ck.

425

1,04

13,

366

738

5,27

48,

754

5,81

24,

569

2,26

41,

950

611

1,21

83,

575

2,07

22,

882

2,97

0

A

lsea

680

213

2,05

02,

465

3,33

96,

170

8,95

75,

233

13,9

071,

972

2,14

613

,320

14,6

389,

688

22,3

937,

145

Si

usla

w66

81,

089

2,72

46,

767

11,0

2457

,129

29,2

578,

729

16,9

075,

869

3,55

217

,491

30,6

0725

,983

24,4

7516

,151

In

d. T

ribs.

112

173

150

9181

65,

308

1,85

28,

179

242

1,46

854

73,

910

1,61

02,

548

5,70

82,

181

TO

TAL

2,84

23,

283

11,7

5914

,261

25,2

3910

3,96

668

,868

42,0

7051

,407

21,2

2412

,270

68,1

3886

,435

56,5

4510

5,01

544

,888

SOUT

H CE

NTRA

L

Um

pqua

2,96

09,

153

7,68

512

,233

35,7

0237

,591

29,6

0729

,920

42,5

3218

,092

11,7

8337

,868

57,9

8470

,019

68,7

3631

,458

Co

os1,

127

3,16

74,

945

5,38

643

,301

35,6

8829

,559

23,3

3717

,048

11,2

661,

329

14,8

8126

,979

27,6

589,

205

16,9

92

Co

quille

5,72

02,

466

3,00

16,

130

13,3

108,

610

23,9

0922

,138

11,8

0628

,577

13,9

688,

791

22,2

8623

,564

35,8

0015

,338

Fl

oras

Ck.

-25

216

41,

440

1,94

520

310

7,44

650

61,

104

340

786

3,20

311

,329

4,11

82,

355

Si

xes

R.-

--

--

--

403

105

294

9743

176

100

247

183

Co

asta

l Lak

es8,

603

11,1

0712

,710

12,7

4719

,669

22,1

6216

,688

18,6

4214

,725

24,1

278,

955

23,6

0817

,349

38,7

4420

,392

18,0

15

In

d. T

ribs.

--

--

--

--

--

-0

188

484

7518

7

TO

TAL

18,4

1026

,145

28,5

0537

,936

113,

927

104,

071

100,

073

101,

886

86,7

2283

,460

36,4

7285

,977

128,

165

171,

898

138,

573

84,1

48

SOUT

H

Rogu

e8,

213

2,25

71,

389

10,9

7812

,579

8,40

36,

754

24,4

869,

957

3,93

75,

242

414

2,56

63,

073

3,91

76,

944

CO

AST

WID

E31

,611

34,2

6150

,517

81,0

8818

5,19

626

8,97

323

5,33

519

7,26

416

4,55

213

2,75

671

,513

180,

100

265,

301

286,

486

295,

292

165,

350

1997

-20

11A

vg.

Com

pone

ntan

d Ba

sin

Ore

gon

Coa

stal

Nat

ural

Coh

o S

paw

ning

Esc

apem

ent E

stim

ates

, 199

7-20

11.

Page 21: Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting · 1. 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 2011 2010 2009 1979-90 Columbia River. 7,383 10,254 ... Nov-Dec. Newport

0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%< 0.10 of full seeding

Critical

< 11.0%< 11.0%< 11.0%< 8.0%0.20 to 0.10 of full seeding

Very Low

< 25.0%< 15.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.50 to 0.20 full seeding

Low

< 38.0%< 20.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.75 to 0.50 full seeding

Medium

< 45.0%< 30.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%> 0.75 full seeding

High

High(> 0.0040)

Medium(< 0.0040)

Low(< 0.0015)

Critical(<0.0008)

Marine Survival Index(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)

Parental Escapement

0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%< 0.10 of full seeding

Critical

< 11.0%< 11.0%< 11.0%< 8.0%0.20 to 0.10 of full seeding

Very Low

< 25.0%< 15.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.50 to 0.20 full seeding

Low

< 38.0%< 20.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.75 to 0.50 full seeding

Medium

< 45.0%< 30.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%> 0.75 full seeding

High

High(> 0.0040)

Medium(< 0.0040)

Low(< 0.0015)

Critical(<0.0008)

Marine Survival Index(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)

Parental Escapement

Harvest management matrix for lower Columbia River wild coho showingmaximum allowable ocean fishery mortality rates.

4 Fish per

Mile

12% of Full

Seeding

19% of Full

Seeding

50% of Full

Seeding

75% of full

Seeding

899 21,700 3,596 NA 4,123 10,850 16,275

1,163 55,000 4,652 NA 10,450 27,500 41,250

1,685 50,000 6,740 NA 9,500 25,000 37,500

450 5,400 NA 648 1,026 2,700 4,050

4,197 132,100 25,099 66,050 99,075

(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)

HighMediumLowExtremely Low

(>0.0040 )(>0.0014 to 0.0040)

M H

Marine Survival Index

Parent Spawner Status 1/

0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8%

< 15%

< 15%

< 15%

< 11%

15,636Coastwide Total

(<0.0008 ) (0.0008 to 0.0014 )

Sub-aggregate and Basin Specific Spawner Criteria Data

Northern

North - Central

South - Central

Southern

< 8% < 11%

< 15% < 25%

L

< 11%

Q

E

D

C

B

< 8%

< 8%

< 8%

J

I

H

G

K P

J

< 45%

I

< 38%

O

< 30%

N

< 20%

Sub-aggregate

1/ Parental spawner abundance status for the OCN aggergate assumes the status of the weakest sub-aggregate.

2/ "Critical" parental spawner status is defined as 4 fish per mile for the Northern, North-Central, and South-Central subaggergates. Because the ratio of high quality spawning habitat to total spawning habitat in the Rogue River Basin differs significantly from the rest of the basins on the coast, the spawner density of 4 fish per mile does not represent "Critical" status for that basin. Instead. "Critical" status for the Rogue Basin (Southern Sub-aggergate) is estimated as 12% of full seeding of high quality habitat.

High

Parent Spawners > 75% of full seeding

Miles of Available Spawning Habitat

100% of Full

Seeding

"Critical" Very Low, Low, Medium & High

A

Parent Spawners > 4 fish per mile & < 19% of full seeding

Critical 2/

Parental Spawners < 4 fish per mile

Medium

Parent Spawners > 50% & < 75% of full seeding

Low

Parent Spawners > 19% & < 50% of full seeding

Very Low

F

Fishery impact rate criteria for OCN coho stock components based on the harvest matrix resulting from the OCN work group 2000 Review of Amendment 13

20


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