Ocean Salmon Industry Group Preseason Planning Meeting
for
Ocean Recreational and Commercial Troll
Salmon Fisheries off Oregon, 2012
BRIEFING DOCUMENTS:
2011 Season Summary
2012 Management Process Schedule
2011 Escapement Estimates
2012 Stock Abundance Forecasts
and other materials
Sponsored by
Oregon Coastal Zone Management Association and
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife
Hallmark Inn and Resort Newport, Oregon February 28, 2012
1
Cat
ch A
rea
2011
20
102
009
1979
-90
201
120
10
200
919
79-
902
011
201
020
09
197
9-9
0
Co
lum
bia
Riv
er
7,38
3
1
0,2
54
12,2
50
25
,78
9
1,
623
1,
812
98
0
4,25
5
6,0
42
6,
108
1
9,41
9
3
3,75
5
T
illam
ook
12,
838
1
3,5
03
22,3
74
31
,27
8
1,
118
83
1
36
5
1,58
4
5,7
27
3,
373
2
3,58
5
2
1,80
5
N
ewp
ort
11,
953
1
4,9
93
29,6
07
67
,86
6
46
3
80
1
3
3
2,93
0
5,9
52
7,
830
3
5,43
8
6
2,36
2
C
oo
s B
ay
10,
322
8,
619
14,3
62
68,0
92
1,01
7
69
6
1
2
7,61
0
1
,090
927
9,
967
66,
875
Bro
okin
gs
6,26
0
5,
950
5,93
1
57,6
76
936
824
195
15
,54
4
28
60
1,
197
17,
019
Ore
gon
To
tal
48,
756
5
3,3
19
84,5
24
2
50,7
01
5,
157
4,96
4
1,58
5
31,9
23
18,8
39
18,
298
89,
606
20
1,81
6
Cat
ch A
rea
2011
20
102
009
1979
-90
201
120
10
200
919
79-
902
011
201
020
09
197
9-9
0
Co
lum
bia
Riv
er
288
6
34
52
8
94
8
2,
836
1
1,12
0
71
2
4,75
4
464
1,
038
1
2,68
8
2
0,64
3
T
illam
ook
218
4
00
27
1
5,
438
1,09
9
3,64
8
144
14
,57
0
-
-
3,49
1
8
3,65
4
N
ewp
ort
736
1,
521
284
7,79
8
4,
942
12,
377
-
53,5
68
-
-
5,10
3
11
2,06
4
Co
os
Ba
y2,
187
1,5
55
13
6
15
,56
9
21
,74
0
1
1,41
9
29
3
144
,32
0
-
-
68
6
12
4,71
6
Bro
okin
gs
286
1
81
-
3,
582
1,31
7
869
-
45,4
49
-
-
-
18,
804
Ore
gon
To
tal
3,71
5
4,
291
1,21
9
33,3
35
31,9
34
39,
433
1,14
9
2
62,6
61
4
64
1,03
8
21,
968
359,
881
Com
mer
cia
l Oce
an T
roll
Sal
mon
Fis
her
ies
Eff
ort
(B
oat
Day
s)
Ch
ino
ok (N
um
be
r o
f Fi
sh)
Co
ho
(Nu
mb
er
of F
ish
)
Oc
ean
Sa
lmo
n E
ffo
rt a
nd
La
nd
ing
Es
tim
ate
s fo
r 20
11
wit
h C
om
par
iso
n t
o 2
009
, 201
0, a
nd
197
9-19
90 A
vera
ge.
Eff
ort
(A
ng
ler
Tri
ps)
Ch
ino
ok (N
um
be
r o
f Fi
sh)
Co
ho
(Nu
mb
er
of F
ish
)
Rec
reat
ion
al O
cea
n S
alm
on F
ish
erie
s
2
MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. Nov-Dec
Newport
Coos Bay
Twin Rocks
Mar-Apr
Astoria
Newport
Garibaldi
Bandon
Florence
Pacific City
Depoe Bay
Winchester Bay
Charleston
Port Orford
Gold Beach
Brookings
Ilwaco, WA
Cape Falcon
Leadbetter Pt
Cape Falcon to Humbug Mt.
Open for All Salmon
Selective Coho Season
Quota = 15,000 fin-clipped coho
July 2-Aug. 13Catch = 6,123 coho
(rel. = 11,430)
US/Canada to Cape Falcon
Fin-clipped Chin. Quota = 4,800June 18-25
OR Catch = 58 Chin. (rel. 394)WA Catch = 266 Chin.
Cape Falcon to Humbug Mt.
All Salmon Except Coho(all Chinook within 15 fathoms off Tillamook
between Twin Rocks and Pyramid Rock must be fin-clipped through July 31)
March 15-Sept. 30Catch = 2,280 Chin.
Humbug Mt.
All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip
All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. No more than 1 Chinook allowed in bag limit prior to 8/7, from 8/14-8/28, and from 9/5-30. Closed to Chinook retention from 8/29-9/4All salmon, 2 per day. All coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. No more than 1 Chinook allowed in bag limit prior to 8/7, from 8/14-8/28, and from 9/5-30. Closed to Chinook retention from 8/29-9/4All salmon except coho, 2 per day All salmon except coho, 2 per day
All salmon except coho, 2 per day. All Chinook must have a healed adipose fin clip
All salmon, 2 per day. Open for all salmon (no fin-clip restriction on retained coho)
Cape Falcon to Humbug Mt.
Non-select ive Coho Season
Open for All Salmon
Quota = 3,000 5,900 coho
Sept. 1-3 and Sept. 8-10
Sept. 1-10 7Catch = 6,623 coho
Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open in state waters (0-3 miles) Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open in state waters (0-3 miles)
Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open inside ~20 fathoms Chinook salmon only, 2 per day but no more than one may be non-finclipped. Open inside ~20 fathoms
Chinook salmon only, 1 per day, not more than 5 per season. Open in state waters (0-3 miles)Chinook salmon only, 1 per day, not more than 5 per season. Open in state waters (0-3 miles)
Leadbetter Pt. to Cape FalconFin-clipped Coho Quota = 33,600Chinook Guideline = 7,400 7,710
June 26-Sept. 30Catch: OR = 1,559 Chin. (rel. 7,203)
6,035 coho (rel. 3,551)WA = 5,330 Chin; 20,632 coho
State Waters Chetco Chinook Oct. 1-12No Quota
Catch = 289 Chinook
Humbug Mt. to OR/CA BorderAll Salmon Except Coho
May 14-September 5Catch = 647 Chin.
State Waters Elk Chinook Nov. 1-30No Quota
Catch = 6 Chin.
State Waters Tillamook Chinook
Oct. 1-31No Quota
Catch = 318 Chin.
Ocean Recreational Salmon Seasons, Quotas, and Landings off Oregon, 2011
33
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
An
gle
r T
rip
s (t
ho
usa
nd
s)
79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 '01 03 '05 '07 '09 '11
Year
Ocean Sport Salmon Effort by Area
Columbia R.
Tillamook
Newport
Coos Bay
Brookings
48,700 Angler-Trips
Sport Effort by Port, 2011
Astoria15%
Garibaldi22%
Depoe Bay8%
Newport16%
Other Ports1%
Winchester Bay14%
Charleston6%
Brookings13%Pacific City
5%
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Co
ho
(th
ou
san
ds)
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Year
Ocean Sport Coho Landings by Area
Columbia R.
Tillamook
Newport
Coos Bay
Brookings
18,800 Coho
Sport Coho Landings by Port, 2011
Astoria31%Garibaldi
20%
Pacific City10%
Depoe Bay14%
Newport18%
Winchester Bay4%
Other Ports1%
Charleston2%
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ch
ino
ok
(th
ou
san
ds)
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Year
Ocean Sport Chinook Landings by Area
Columbia R.
Tillamook
Newport
Coos Bay
Brookings
5,200 Chinook
Sport Chinook Landings by Port, 2011
Astoria31%
Garibaldi18%Pacific City
4%
Depoe Bay4%
Newport5%
Winchester Bay14%
Charleston5%
Brookings18%
Other Ports1%
6
50 C
hin
ook
per
cale
ndar
wee
k
MAY JUNE AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV.APRIL JULY
All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed into Oregon. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length.All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed into Oregon. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length.
All salmon except coho. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt ., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt . Vessels fishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Chinook 28”minimum length. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext . 271
All salmon except coho. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt ., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt . Vessels fishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Chinook 28”minimum length. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext . 271
All salmon except coho. Landing and possession limit of 30 Chinook per day. All fish must be landed and delivered to Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings and within 24 hours of any closure. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length. Quota remaining from the June and/or July seasons will be carried forward to the next quota period on an impact neutral basis. All landings must be reported within one hour of delivery at (541)867-0300 ext. 252
All salmon except coho. Landing and possession limit of 30 Chinook per day. All fish must be landed and delivered to Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings and within 24 hours of any closure. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28” minimum length. Quota remaining from the June and/or July seasons will be carried forward to the next quota period on an impact neutral basis. All landings must be reported within one hour of delivery at (541)867-0300 ext. 252
All salmon. All retained coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt. Vessels f ishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Open period landing and possession limits of: 50 Chin. and 50 coho July 1-12; 30 Chin. and 50 coho July 15-Aug. 9; 12 Chin. and 50 coho Aug. 19; 12 Chin. and 75 coho Aug. 27-29; and 20 Chin. and 100 coho Sept. 3-6 and Sept. 10-13. Chinook minimum length 28”, coho minimum length 16”. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext. 271
All salmon. All retained coho must have a healed adipose fin clip. Vessels landing South of Leadbetter Pt., WA may only fish South of Leadbetter Pt. Vessels f ishing North of Leadbetter Pt., must land their catch North of Leadbetter Pt. Landings restricted to within the open area and Garibaldi only. Must land all catch within 24 hours of any closure. Open period landing and possession limits of: 50 Chin. and 50 coho July 1-12; 30 Chin. and 50 coho July 15-Aug. 9; 12 Chin. and 50 coho Aug. 19; 12 Chin. and 75 coho Aug. 27-29; and 20 Chin. and 100 coho Sept. 3-6 and Sept. 10-13. Chinook minimum length 28”, coho minimum length 16”. All landings into Oregon must be reported within one hour of landing at (541)867-0300 ext. 271
MAR.
All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed in Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28”minimum length. Special notif ication restrict ions apply.All salmon except coho. All f ish must be landed in Gold Beach, Port Orford, or Brookings. No more than 4 spreads per wire. Chinook 28”minimum length. Special notif ication restrict ions apply.
April 15-July 9; July 17-Aug. 31; and Oct. 1-31No Quota
Prior to August 1, within the 15 fathom curve off Tillamook Bay between Twin Rocks and Pyramid Rock, only
fin-clipped Chinook salmon may be on board while fishing.50 Chinook per vessel per calendar week in October
Landings: April through Aug. = 24,362 Chin.; Oct.= 1,176
July 1-Aug. 9: Open periods of Fri.-Tues. of each week;Open periods of Aug. 19, Aug. 27-29, Sept. 3-6, and Sept. 10-13
Chinook Quota=10,300Marked Coho Quota=12,800
Open period limits described belowOR Landings = 379 Chin. and 464 coho
May 1-June 21 no landing limits, and June 23-30 with a 30 Chin.
per open period limitChin. Quota = 20,600
OR Landings = 2,457 Chin.
Twin Rocks
State Waters Chetco ChinookOct. 13-31 or Chin. Quota=750 Daily landing and possession
limit of 20 ChinookLandings = 104 Chin.
June 1-Aug. 31Quotas: June = 1,500;
July = 1,200; and Aug. = 1,000 2,950Single Daily Landing and Possession
Limit of 30 Chinook per VesselLandings: June = 240; July = 30;
and Aug. = 331 Chin.
May 1-31 No Quota
Landings = 612 Chin.
Newport
Coos Bay
Astoria
Newport
Garibaldi
Bandon
Florence
Pacific City
Depoe Bay
Charleston
Port Orford
Gold Beach
Brookings
Ilwaco, WA
Cape Falcon
Leadbetter Pt.
Humbug Mt.
Twin Rocks
Pyramid Rock
43º31’00” N Lat.
Crooked Cr.
State Waters Coos-Coquille ChinookSept. 1-30 No Quota
inside 30 fathoms N. of Seven Devils Weekly landing and possession
limit of 50 ChinookLandings = 206 Chin.
Cape Blanco
State Waters Elk ChinookNov. 1-30 No Quota
Open inside line at ~20 fathomsDaily landing and possession
limit of 20 ChinookLandings = 1,954 Chin.
State Waters Tillamook ChinookSept. 1-30 No Quota
Weekly landing and possession limit of 25 Chinook
Landings = 82 Chin.
Ocean Commercial Troll Salmon Seasons, Quotas, and Landings off Oregon, 2011
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Year
Troll Effort by Area
Columbia R.
Tillamook
Newport
Coos Bay
Brookings
3,700 Boat-Days
Troll Effort (Deliveries) by Port, 2011
Astoria8%Garibaldi
7%Newport
18%
Winchester Bay4%
Charleston32%
other ports2%
Brookings10%
Port Orford19%
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
Co
ho
(th
ou
san
ds
)
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Year
Troll Coho Landings by Area
Columbia R.
Tillamook
Newport
Coos Bay
Brookings
464 Coho
Troll Coho Landings by Port, 2011
Astoria79%
Garibaldi21%
9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ch
ino
ok
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11
Year
Troll Chinook Landings by Area
Columbia R.
Tillamook
Newport
Coos Bay
Brookings
31,900 Chinook
Troll Chinook Landings by Port, 2011
Newport17%
Other Ports0%
Winchester Bay2%
Charleston55%
Port Orford10%
Brookings4%
Astoria9%
Garibaldi3%
10
Mar. 3-7 Pacific Fishery Management Council
Doubletree
* Continued negotiations - Puget Sound
* Ocean/Puget/Columbia River salmon season negotiations
North of Falcon I (Public Meeting)
* Ocean and state waters salmon fishery options
Olympia, WA
* 2012 Salmon season discussions
Feb. 28 Newport, OROcean Salmon Industry Group
Feb. 28 CDFG Public Meeting Santa Rosa, CA
* 2012 Forecasts
Seattle, WA
* 2012 Salmon season discussions
Sacramento, CA
* Public input on 2012 season options
* Adopt 2012 ocean salmon options for public review
Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission Corvallis, OR
Mar. 12
Mar. 9
Mar. 28 North of Falcon II (Public Meeting) Lynnwood, WA
Coos Bay, OR
Columbia River Fisheries Discussion Vancouver, WA
* ODFW, WDFW, Public
2012 Ocean Fishery Process Schedule
* 2012 Salmon season discussions
Feb. 28 WDFW Public Meeting
* 2012 Forecasts
Olympia, WA
* 2012 Forecasts
Apr. 1-6 Pacific Fishery Management Council
* Adopt 2012 ocean salmon fishery regulations
Mar. 14
Mar. 26 PFMC Public Options Hearing
Red Lion
Eureka, CA
* Adopt state waters ocean salmon fishery regulations ODFW HQApr. 20 Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission
Sheraton (Downtown)Salem, OR
Mar. 26 PFMC Public Options Hearing Westport, WA
* Public input on 2012 season options
* Public input on 2012 season options
Mar. 27 PFMC Public Options Hearing
Mar. 26 North of Falcon II (Public Meeting) Olympia, WA
* Continued negotiations - ocean and Columbia River
11
Oregon Production Area Hatchery Coho Abundance Estimates, 1970-2011
2,99
53,
922
2,14
53,
297
1,88
54,
329
1,19
41,
939
1,69
01,
347
1,25
0 1,45
869
6 798
844
2,50
095
8
798
1,99
163
536
425
321
818
321
520
4 320
677
1,39
666
095
363
544
344
147
7 565
1,06
655
144
2
1,78
4
1,77
9
2,16
3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f Coh
o
.
OCN Coho Spawner Escapement Lakes and Rivers, 1990-2011
1831 42 46 43 46
66
23 2338
68
166
247219
179150
109
63
156
248 248275
47
210 6 11
13
9 11
20
22
17
19
15
24
9
24
1739
20
13
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f Coh
o
.
Lakes
Rivers
12
OCN Spawner Escapement by Sub-Aggregate Including Full Seeding Levels, 2008-2011
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2008 2009 2010 2011 Full Seeding
Tho
usan
ds o
f Spa
wne
rs
North
North-Central
South-CentralSouth
Columbia River Tule Chinook Ocean Escapement, 1984-2011
150 144
353
322
158
79
115
69 72 80
109
6648
219
317336
284
171
86
47
154
126
234
179
85 9092
171
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Year
Tho
usa
nds
of C
hin
ook
13
Klamath River Natural Fall Chinook Adult Spawner Escapement, 1978-2011
59
22
34
16
26
113
102
79
44
1612 12
22
162
81
46 43
19
8378
66
88
24 27 30
61
31
4437
48
3132
3132
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f C
hino
ok
Natural Spawner Floor
35,000
Sacramento River Adult Fall Chinook Escapements, 1970-2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f Chi
nook
Goal Range of 122,000 - 180,000
14
Coho
Chinook
(Fall Chinook)
Rogue Fall
North Migrating
1/ Preseason expectations to the mouth of the Columbia River.
Upriver Spring
Willamette Spring
198,400
104,100
Oregon Coast Fair Returns
Fall Brights
Lower River Wild
498,200
12,500
Tules 249,900
Columbia River 1/
729,900
249,400
375,100Hatchery 442,300
Postseason
311,600 62,200
age 4 - 61,600
PreseasonExpectations
Oregon Production Index (OPI)
Sacramento Index
OCN
Klamath
Post - Pre
-70,800
-88,200
-530,600
-71,9005,100
67,200
Index - 45,000 NA
199,300
232,70066,700
age 3 - 304,600
221,200
80,300
Improved survey results and returns.
179,100
410,000
15,200 2,700
22,800
-23,800
LCN 22,700 23,400 700
2011 Ocean Abundance Estimates for Select Salmon Stocks,Preseason vs. Postseason
15
OPI Coho Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison
630
316267
204 231
432
762
904
674
1,341
848
761770
260
972
1,673
271
1,267
630 631
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f Coh
o
PostseasonForecast
OPI Hatchery Coho Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison
513
223 214139
215 204
320
1,396
443 441
1,066
551
442
565
677
953
635660
183
477
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f Coh
o
Postseason
Forecast
16
OCN Coho Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison
86
28 29
52
69
163
305
279
197
150
116
60
257267
312
171
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f Coh
o
PostseasonForecast
Columbia R. Tule Chinook Ocean Escapement Forecast for 2012 with Postseason Estimate and
Preseason Forecast Comparison
150 144
353
322
158
79
115
69 72 80
109
6648
219
317336
284
86
47
152
126
179
234
171171
929085
191
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f Chi
nook
.
Postseason
Forecast
17
Klamath R. Fall Chinook Age-3 Forecast for 2012 with Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison
192 140 356 514 400 160 190 91 377
1,568
233195
68129 617155 241
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f C
hino
ok
.
Postseason Abundance
Preseason Forecast
Klamath R. Fall Chinook Age-4 Forecast for 2012 with to Preseason Forecast and Postseason Estimate Comparison
226 63 30 134 99 192 105 38 63 34
80
6662214445 810
50
100
150
200
250
300
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Th
ou
san
ds
of
Ch
ino
ok
.
Postseason Abundance
Preseason Forecast
18
Sacramento R. Fall Chinook Escapements andHarvest, 1983-2011; and 2012 Index
819.4
0
500
1000
1500
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Tho
usan
ds o
f C
hino
ok
Index Escapement Ocean Harvest River Harvest
180
122
Coho
Chinook
(Fall Chinook)
Rogue Fall
North Migrating
1/ Preseason expectations to the mouth of the Columbia River.
Upriver Spring 115,800 more than 2011 Forecast
Willamette Spring 20,700 less than 2011 Forecast
314,200
83,400
Fall Brights 53,900 less than 2011 Forecast Lower River Wild 3,700 more than 2011 Forecast
444,30016,200
Tules 59,100 less than 2011 Forecast 190,800
Index - 45,000 28,200 more than 2011 Forecast
Increasing spawner countssuggest improving trends
Columbia River 1/
Oregon Coast
33,400 less than 2011 Forecast
OCN 291,000
Klamath 1,263,000 more than 2011 Forecastage 3 -1,567,600
41,600 more than 2011 Forecast
LCN 30,100 7,400 more than 2011 Forecast
Preliminary 2012 Ocean Abundance Forecasts for SelectSalmon Stocks
CommentsPreseason
Expectations
Fair to Good Returns
age 4 - 79,600 18,000 more than 2011 Forecast
Hatchery 341,700
Oregon Production Index (OPI)
Sacramento Index 819,400 89,500 more than 2011 Forecast
19
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NORT
HERN
Ne
cani
cum
253
946
728
474
5,24
72,
896
3,06
82,
198
1,21
875
043
11,
055
3,82
74,
445
1,84
21,
959
Ne
hale
m
1,17
31,
190
3,71
314
,285
22,3
1020
,903
33,0
5918
,736
10,4
5111
,614
14,0
3317
,205
21,7
5332
,215
14,2
7015
,794
Ti
llam
ook
388
271
2,17
51,
983
1,88
315
,715
14,5
842,
532
1,99
58,
774
2,29
54,
828
16,2
5114
,890
21,5
127,
338
Ne
stuc
ca27
116
92,
201
1,17
13,
940
13,0
038,
929
4,69
568
61,
876
394
1,84
44,
252
1,94
78,
754
3,60
9
In
d. T
ribs.
610
470
7116
066
12,
116
1,12
137
663
92,
052
1,47
31,
409
669
TO
TAL
2,14
62,
576
8,86
417
,913
33,4
5152
,533
59,6
4028
,822
16,4
6624
,135
17,5
2925
,571
48,1
3554
,970
47,7
8729
,369
NORT
H CE
NTRA
L
Sa
lmon
237
817
50
310
372
01,
642
7951
359
652
753
1,38
23,
528
647
Si
letz
336
394
706
3,55
31,
437
2,25
29,
736
8,17
914
,567
5,20
52,
197
20,6
3424
,070
6,28
326
,964
8,43
4
Y
aqui
na38
436
52,
588
647
3,03
923
,981
13,2
545,
539
3,44
14,
247
3,15
810
,913
11,1
828,
589
19,0
657,
359
Be
aver
Ck.
425
1,04
13,
366
738
5,27
48,
754
5,81
24,
569
2,26
41,
950
611
1,21
83,
575
2,07
22,
882
2,97
0
A
lsea
680
213
2,05
02,
465
3,33
96,
170
8,95
75,
233
13,9
071,
972
2,14
613
,320
14,6
389,
688
22,3
937,
145
Si
usla
w66
81,
089
2,72
46,
767
11,0
2457
,129
29,2
578,
729
16,9
075,
869
3,55
217
,491
30,6
0725
,983
24,4
7516
,151
In
d. T
ribs.
112
173
150
9181
65,
308
1,85
28,
179
242
1,46
854
73,
910
1,61
02,
548
5,70
82,
181
TO
TAL
2,84
23,
283
11,7
5914
,261
25,2
3910
3,96
668
,868
42,0
7051
,407
21,2
2412
,270
68,1
3886
,435
56,5
4510
5,01
544
,888
SOUT
H CE
NTRA
L
Um
pqua
2,96
09,
153
7,68
512
,233
35,7
0237
,591
29,6
0729
,920
42,5
3218
,092
11,7
8337
,868
57,9
8470
,019
68,7
3631
,458
Co
os1,
127
3,16
74,
945
5,38
643
,301
35,6
8829
,559
23,3
3717
,048
11,2
661,
329
14,8
8126
,979
27,6
589,
205
16,9
92
Co
quille
5,72
02,
466
3,00
16,
130
13,3
108,
610
23,9
0922
,138
11,8
0628
,577
13,9
688,
791
22,2
8623
,564
35,8
0015
,338
Fl
oras
Ck.
-25
216
41,
440
1,94
520
310
7,44
650
61,
104
340
786
3,20
311
,329
4,11
82,
355
Si
xes
R.-
--
--
--
403
105
294
9743
176
100
247
183
Co
asta
l Lak
es8,
603
11,1
0712
,710
12,7
4719
,669
22,1
6216
,688
18,6
4214
,725
24,1
278,
955
23,6
0817
,349
38,7
4420
,392
18,0
15
In
d. T
ribs.
--
--
--
--
--
-0
188
484
7518
7
TO
TAL
18,4
1026
,145
28,5
0537
,936
113,
927
104,
071
100,
073
101,
886
86,7
2283
,460
36,4
7285
,977
128,
165
171,
898
138,
573
84,1
48
SOUT
H
Rogu
e8,
213
2,25
71,
389
10,9
7812
,579
8,40
36,
754
24,4
869,
957
3,93
75,
242
414
2,56
63,
073
3,91
76,
944
CO
AST
WID
E31
,611
34,2
6150
,517
81,0
8818
5,19
626
8,97
323
5,33
519
7,26
416
4,55
213
2,75
671
,513
180,
100
265,
301
286,
486
295,
292
165,
350
1997
-20
11A
vg.
Com
pone
ntan
d Ba
sin
Ore
gon
Coa
stal
Nat
ural
Coh
o S
paw
ning
Esc
apem
ent E
stim
ates
, 199
7-20
11.
0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%< 0.10 of full seeding
Critical
< 11.0%< 11.0%< 11.0%< 8.0%0.20 to 0.10 of full seeding
Very Low
< 25.0%< 15.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.50 to 0.20 full seeding
Low
< 38.0%< 20.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.75 to 0.50 full seeding
Medium
< 45.0%< 30.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%> 0.75 full seeding
High
High(> 0.0040)
Medium(< 0.0040)
Low(< 0.0015)
Critical(<0.0008)
Marine Survival Index(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)
Parental Escapement
0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%0 – 8.0%< 0.10 of full seeding
Critical
< 11.0%< 11.0%< 11.0%< 8.0%0.20 to 0.10 of full seeding
Very Low
< 25.0%< 15.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.50 to 0.20 full seeding
Low
< 38.0%< 20.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%0.75 to 0.50 full seeding
Medium
< 45.0%< 30.0%< 15.0%< 8.0%> 0.75 full seeding
High
High(> 0.0040)
Medium(< 0.0040)
Low(< 0.0015)
Critical(<0.0008)
Marine Survival Index(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)
Parental Escapement
Harvest management matrix for lower Columbia River wild coho showingmaximum allowable ocean fishery mortality rates.
4 Fish per
Mile
12% of Full
Seeding
19% of Full
Seeding
50% of Full
Seeding
75% of full
Seeding
899 21,700 3,596 NA 4,123 10,850 16,275
1,163 55,000 4,652 NA 10,450 27,500 41,250
1,685 50,000 6,740 NA 9,500 25,000 37,500
450 5,400 NA 648 1,026 2,700 4,050
4,197 132,100 25,099 66,050 99,075
(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)
HighMediumLowExtremely Low
(>0.0040 )(>0.0014 to 0.0040)
M H
Marine Survival Index
Parent Spawner Status 1/
0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8%
< 15%
< 15%
< 15%
< 11%
15,636Coastwide Total
(<0.0008 ) (0.0008 to 0.0014 )
Sub-aggregate and Basin Specific Spawner Criteria Data
Northern
North - Central
South - Central
Southern
< 8% < 11%
< 15% < 25%
L
< 11%
Q
E
D
C
B
< 8%
< 8%
< 8%
J
I
H
G
K P
J
< 45%
I
< 38%
O
< 30%
N
< 20%
Sub-aggregate
1/ Parental spawner abundance status for the OCN aggergate assumes the status of the weakest sub-aggregate.
2/ "Critical" parental spawner status is defined as 4 fish per mile for the Northern, North-Central, and South-Central subaggergates. Because the ratio of high quality spawning habitat to total spawning habitat in the Rogue River Basin differs significantly from the rest of the basins on the coast, the spawner density of 4 fish per mile does not represent "Critical" status for that basin. Instead. "Critical" status for the Rogue Basin (Southern Sub-aggergate) is estimated as 12% of full seeding of high quality habitat.
High
Parent Spawners > 75% of full seeding
Miles of Available Spawning Habitat
100% of Full
Seeding
"Critical" Very Low, Low, Medium & High
A
Parent Spawners > 4 fish per mile & < 19% of full seeding
Critical 2/
Parental Spawners < 4 fish per mile
Medium
Parent Spawners > 50% & < 75% of full seeding
Low
Parent Spawners > 19% & < 50% of full seeding
Very Low
F
Fishery impact rate criteria for OCN coho stock components based on the harvest matrix resulting from the OCN work group 2000 Review of Amendment 13
20