ICRA LIMITED Six weeks after the withdrawal of legal tender status for the old notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000, we now have data for various lead indicators of economic activity, which have displayed a mixed trend in November 2016. Growth rates for various data series for October-November 2016 are distorted by base effects related to a shift in the festive calendar and a change in the number of working days relative to the same months in 2015, obscuring the impact of the note ban. We have identified some underlying themes related to the short term impact of the note ban on economic activity, chiefly healthy production in the organised sectors; disruptions in the labour/cash intensive and relatively unorganised sectors resulting in a loss of income for businesses and workers; and deferral of discretionary consumption. The pace of revival of economic activity in Q4 FY2017 is likely to depend on how quickly currency in circulation is replenished and digital transactions become widespread. Regardless, sluggish consumption is expected to weigh upon capacity utilisation in H2 FY2017, delaying private sector investment plans. Profitability in various sectors in H2 FY2017 is likely to be under pressure on account of rising raw material costs, particularly fuels and metals, lower volumes as well as discounts given to attract buyers. Although currency liquidity is likely to improve significantly by the end of January 2017, economic activity may take longer to normalise, based on which we have revised our forecast for GVA growth in FY2017 to 6.6%. Chart 1: Production in large organized sectors (auto, coal, electricity) continued in November 2016, even as crunch in cash liquidity hurt exports of labour-intensive sectors (gems & jewellery, textiles) and consumer demand (automobile sales) CV: Commercial vehicles; PV: Passenger Vehicles; CIL: Coal India Limited; GoI: Government of India; ATF: Aviation Turbine Fuel Cumulative indirect taxes of the GoI (without additional resource measures) Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufactures (SIAM); Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) ; Office of the Economic Adviser; Ministry of Commerce; JPC; CIL; Controller General of Accounts (CGA); GoI; ICRA research -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct-16 Nov-16 INDIAN ECONOMY Growth of GVA at basic prices in FY2017 pegged at 6.6%, with impact of note ban likely to continue during Q4 FY2017 DECEMBER 2016 Contacts: Aditi Nayar +91 124 4545 385 [email protected]
Transcript
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 1
Six weeks after the withdrawal of legal tender status for the old notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000, we now have data for various lead indicators of economic activity, which have displayed a mixed trend in November 2016. Growth rates for various data series for October-November 2016 are distorted by base effects related to a shift in the festive calendar and a change in the number of working days relative to the same months in 2015, obscuring the impact of the note ban. We have identified some underlying themes related to the short term impact of the note ban on economic activity, chiefly healthy production in the organised sectors; disruptions in the labour/cash intensive and relatively unorganised sectors resulting in a loss of income for businesses and workers; and deferral of discretionary consumption. The pace of revival of economic activity in Q4 FY2017 is likely to depend on how quickly currency in circulation is replenished and digital transactions become widespread. Regardless, sluggish consumption is expected to weigh upon capacity utilisation in H2 FY2017, delaying private sector investment plans. Profitability in various sectors in H2 FY2017 is likely to be under pressure on account of rising raw material costs, particularly fuels and metals, lower volumes as well as discounts given to attract buyers. Although currency liquidity is likely to improve significantly by the end of January 2017, economic activity may take longer to normalise, based on which we have revised our forecast for GVA growth in FY2017 to 6.6%. Chart 1: Production in large organized sectors (auto, coal, electricity) continued in November 2016, even as crunch in cash liquidity hurt exports of labour-intensive sectors (gems & jewellery, textiles) and consumer demand (automobile sales)
CV: Commercial vehicles; PV: Passenger Vehicles; CIL: Coal India Limited; GoI: Government of India; ATF: Aviation Turbine Fuel Cumulative indirect taxes of the GoI (without additional resource measures) Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufactures (SIAM); Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) ; Office of the Economic Adviser; Ministry of Commerce; JPC; CIL; Controller General of Accounts (CGA); GoI; ICRA research
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INDIAN ECONOMY
Growth of GVA at basic prices in FY2017 pegged at 6.6%, with impact of note ban likely to continue during Q4 FY2017
The intention of this report is not to diminish the expected long term benefits of the note ban, particularly towards reducing illegal transactions, tax evasion and terrorism and resulting in a durable expansion of the tax base, but simply to assess the short term impact on economic activity. Notably, year-on-year (YoY) growth in production in the large and organised sectors such as automobiles, coal and electricity, as well as exports of engineering goods, was robust in November 2016 despite the note ban, partly because of fewer holidays relative to November 2015. Additionally, the high growth in automobile production may reflect inventory replenishment after the festive season. As a result, the growth of the GoI’s cumulative indirect tax collections excluding additional resource measures, remained steady at end-November 2016, in line with the trend at end-October 2016. However, the crunch in cash liquidity impacted output growth in labour-intensive and less organised sectors, as suggested by the deterioration in performance of exports of gems & jewellery and textiles. Additionally, disruption of activity in cash-intensive sectors such as construction and mandis would result in a permanent loss of mandays of workers, affecting incomes and consumption at the bottom of the pyramid. Moreover, consumer sentiment and investment decisions were impacted by the note ban, with a deferral of purchases as evidenced by the contraction in sales of two wheelers and commercial vehicles in November 2016. Pricing power of producers in some sectors has weakened, such as the dip in road freight rates in November 2016 despite rising diesel prices. The temporary dispensation of usage of old notes for fuel purchases prevented a disruption in the growth of consumption of diesel and petrol in November 2016 relative to the previous month, which should not be construed as an indicator of healthy demand in the economy.
While the favourable base effect and healthy production in organized sectors may support the growth of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in November 2016, the early evidence of the impact of the note ban on several unorganized sectors appears to be negative. Moreover, inventory buildup amid lower demand is likely to weaken production even in the organised sectors in December 2016. Additionally, profitability in various sectors in H2 FY2017 is likely to be under pressure on account rising raw material costs, particularly fuels and metals, lower volumes as well as discounts given to attract buyers.
The trends in the agricultural sector are also mixed. The relaxations for withdrawal of cash and purchases of seeds by farmers have largely insulated rabi sowing. Although rainfall has been sub-par in the post-monsoon season, reservoir storage levels are healthy after the adequate monsoon rainfall, which is likely to support the rabi crops. However, the month-on-month (MoM) decline in prices of perishable crops would restrict the purchasing power of those sellers.
The pace of revival of economic activity in Q4 FY2017 is likely to take a cue from how quickly currency in circulation gets replenished and digital transactions become more widespread. From November 10, 2016 to December 19, 2016, banknotes of Rs. 5.9 trillion were issued to the public through the banking system, as indicated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), equivalent to an estimated 38% of the value of currency that ceased to be legal tender. The RBI has also clarified that it has issued 22.6 billion notes of various denominations to the banks for distribution, including 20.4 billion notes in small denominations (Rs. 10, Rs. 20, Rs. 50 and Rs. 100) and 2.2 billion notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 2,000. If this pace of release of cash is maintained and the proportion of fresh notes in different denominations remains the same, currency liquidity is likely to improve considerably by the end of January 2017, prior to the presentation of the Budget for FY2018 and the next monetary policy review. Regardless, the loss of incomes in some sectors and deferral of consumption is likely to weigh upon capacity utilisation in H2 FY2017, delaying capacity expansion plans of the private sector. While there is substantial headroom for the GoI to incur capital spending, with only around half of the budgeted target completed in the first seven months of this fiscal, it is unclear whether the pace of spending will improve meaningfully in the remainder of the year. Although currency liquidity is likely to improve significantly by the end of January 2017, economic activity may take longer to normalise and profitability is expected to be under pressure in H2 FY2017. Based on such factors, we have revised our forecast for GVA growth in FY2017 to 6.6%, a slowdown relative to the 7.2% expansion in FY2016.
Over the medium term, the note ban and the focus on digital transactions are likely to reduce the competitiveness of the unorganised sector, to the extent that the latter drew strength from lower effective taxation. According to the provisions of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Constitutional Amendment, the GST would need to be implemented before September 16, 2017, which would dominate the economic landscape in 2017. The final tax rates for different categories of goods and services would affect whether their prices would increase or decrease after the shift to the GST, which may result in either delays or upfronting of purchases during the transition period. The process of providing input tax credit (both on Central levies, and across State borders) is expected to be more efficient in the new regime. The reduction in the prevailing cascading effect, with tax-on-tax currently being paid as State levies are imposed atop central levies, is likely to improve the competitiveness of the organised sector. Regardless of the date of implementation of the GST, the key theme over 2017 is going to be a shift from the unorganised to the organised sectors, both on account of the GST as well as the focus on digital transactions.
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 3
UPDATE ON PROJECT ACTIVITY
Capacity utilisation inched up to 72.9% in Q1 FY2017 from 72.0% in Q1 FY2016, but moderated in sequential quarters, from the eight-quarter high 74.0% in Q4 FY2016 (Source: Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey conducted by the RBI).
New project announcements declined by 19.2% on a YoY basis to Rs. 2.0 trillion in Q2 FY2017 from Rs. 2.4 trillion in Q2 FY2016.
o New project announcements in Q2 FY2017 were concentrated in transport, metal & metal products (despite the oversupply situation in several metal sectors) and chemicals & chemical products.
o Following the note ban, discretionary consumption and big ticket purchases are likely to be deferred, weighing upon capacity utilisation in H2 FY2017. This is likely to delay a broad-based pickup in private investment activity.
Infrastructure activity remains concentrated in some sectors such as road execution and metro rail. Capacity addition in power generation (excluding renewables) and power transmission has declined in April-Nov 2016 relative to April-Nov 2015.
o While there is substantial headroom for the GoI to incur capital spending, with only around half of the budgeted target completed in the first seven months of this fiscal, it is unclear whether the pace of spending will improve meaningfully in the remainder of the year. The delay in take off of National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) is also disappointing.
Project completion increased sharply to Rs. 2.1 trillion in Q2 FY2017 from Rs. 0.9 billion in Q2 FY2016, led primarily by the private sector (to Rs. 1.4 trillion from Rs. 0.4 trillion).
o Project completion also rebounded in Q2 FY2017 from the 10-quarter low Rs. 0.9 trillion in Q1 FY2017.
o ~82% of the total value of the projects completed in Q2 FY2017 was concentrated in communication services and electricity.
The value of revived projects improved appreciably to Rs. 0.5 trillion in Q2 FY2017 from Rs. 0.1 trillion in Q2 FY2016, exceeding value of abandoned projects after a gap of 35 quarters.
In contrast, projects stalled during Q2 FY2017 contracted by a considerable 71.2% on a YoY basis to Rs. 0.4 trillion from Rs. 1.2 trillion in Q2 FY2016.
Chart 2: Capacity utilisation improved to 72.9% in Q1 FY2017 from 72.0% in Q1 FY2016, while remaining lower than Q4 FY2016 (74.0%)
Source: RBI; ICRA research Chart 3: Project announcements posted sequential pickup in value terms in Q2 FY2017, while trailing year-ago levels; project completion rebounded to healthy Rs. 2.1 trillion, exceeding the level in Q2 FY2016 and Q1 FY2017
Source: CMIE*; ICRA research * December 16, 2016
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Chart 4: Sequential uptick in project revival was coupled with a sharp slowdown in stalling of projects during Q2 FY2017; in value terms, revived projects exceeded stalled projects after a gap of 35 quarters
Source: CMIE*; ICRA research * December 16, 2016
Chart 6: Minimum import price (MIP), anti-dumping duties etc. as well as rising international prices curbed steel imports, boosting domestic capacity utilisation levels in H1 FY2017; note ban to negatively affect steel players exposed to real estate and construction, weighing upon capacity utilisation in H2 FY2017
Source: Companies’ Annual Reports; ICRA estimates
Chart 5: Cement capacity utilisation expected to remain stagnant in FY2017 owing to subdued demand growth, despite limited capacity addition
P: Projected Source: Company Announcements & Media Releases, Company Annual Reports, Cement Manufacturers Association, Office of Economic Advisor, ICRA estimates Chart 7: Plant load factor improved to a five-month high 60.7% in November 2016, after reaching the series-low 52.0% in August 2016
Source: CEA; ICRA research
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 5
Chart 8: Power generation capacity addition (excluding renewables) rose by 6.3% in October-November 2016, after having contracted by a substantial 49.6% in Q2 FY2017
Source: CEA; ICRA research
Chart 10: Length of projects awarded by NHAI in the road sector during April-October 2016 contracted by 10.9% on a YoY basis
Source: NHAI; ICRA research
Chart 9: However, contraction in power transmission capacity addition worsened to 51.4% in October-November 2016, from 12.5% in Q2 FY2017
Source: CEA; ICRA research Chart 11: However, execution of road projects by NHAI recorded healthy 16.5% rise to 1,229 km in April-October 2016, given robust pipeline of earlier awards
*Data for Q3 FY2017 available till October 2016 Source: NHAI; ICRA research
UPDATE ON LIQUIDITY Chart 12: Sharp dip in currency in circulation since the withdrawal of legal tender status for old notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 on November 8, 2016
Source: RBI; ICRA research
Chart 14: Inter-bank liquidity has surged in line with spike in bank deposits, which is being absorbed through reverse repos under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility, temporary (Nov 26, 2016-Dec 9, 2016) introduction of 100% incremental CRR on the increase in NDTL between Sept 16, 2016-Nov 11, 2016, and cash management bills under the market stabilisation scheme
Source: RBI; ICRA research
Chart 13: Deposit of old currency into banks has consistently exceeded the withdrawals of bank notes since demonetisation
* Deposits as on December 6, 2016 Source: RBI; ICRA research Chart 15: Increase in bank deposits amid limited appetite for bank loans led to a rise in banks’ demand for bonds, both for SLR and investment purposes, dampening bond yields; reversal of the temporary incremental CRR requirement and rate hike in the US have led to some uptick in yields from December 7, 2016 onwards
Source: RBI; ICRA research
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 7
UPDATE ON FINANCING
YoY growth in financing through bank credit to large industry and services, commercial paper (CP) and bonds had risen to 12.3% in Sept 2016 from 11.2% in Sept 2015, led by a pickup in bank credit to large industry and services to 8.1% in Sept 2016 from a modest 5.7% in Sept 2015. This was partly offset by the YoY moderation in the pace of growth of CP (to 29.9% from 45.6%) and bonds (to 17.6% from 19.0%) in the same period.
o Subsequently, YoY deposit growth has surged since the announcement of the note ban, to 15.9% on December 9, 2016, whereas bank credit growth has declined to 6.0%.
Aggregate external commercial borrowings (ECB) volumes net of refinancing moderated to US$ 8.7 billion in April-October 2016 from US$ 10.4 billion in April-October 2015, on account of rupee expenditure on local capital goods and import of capital goods.
Amount of funds raised through rupee denominated bonds stood at US$1.2 billion during September-October 2016.
Domestic equity fund raising declined to Rs. 301.1 billion in April-November 2016 from Rs. 483.4 billion in April-November 2015, dampened by qualified institutional placement, rights issues and offers-for-sale.
o However, funds raised through IPOs tripled to Rs. 227.1 billion in April-November 2016 from Rs. 94.5 billion in April-November 2015.
Chart 17: Net of refinancing, ECB volumes decreased to US$8.7 billion in April-October 2016 from US$10.4 billion during the same period in the previous fiscal
Source: RBI; ICRA research
Chart 16: YoY growth of bank credit to large industry and services improved in September 2016 relative to September 2015, while growth in CP and bonds eased over the same period on a high base
Figures in parentheses refer to YoY growth rates Source: RBI; SEBI; ICRA research Chart 18: YoY deposit growth has surged to 15.9% on December 9, 2016, whereas bank credit growth has declined to 6.0%
Source: RBI; ICRA research
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UPDATE ON UNION GOVERNMENT FINANCES
Chart 19: The GoI’s net tax revenue growth* was higher than year-ago levels during April-October 2016; declaration of previously unaccounted for income under IDS-1 and IDS-2 to boost tax collections in November 2016-March 2017
*Net of Devolution to State Governments; IDS: Income Declaration Scheme Source: Controller General of Accounts (CGA); ICRA research Chart 21: Capital outlay and net lending contracted by 12.8% in April-October 2016; this coupled with double-digit growth in revenue expenditure does not bode well for the quality of the GoI’s expenditure in FY2017
Source: CGA; ICRA research
Chart 20: Revenue expenditure expanded by 16.8% in April-October 2016, on account of factors such as higher outgo towards food subsidy, pay revision
Source: CGA; ICRA research
Chart 22: The GoI’s fiscal deficit for April-October 2016 stood at 79.3% of the FY2017 Budget Estimates (BE), exceeding year-ago levels; shortfall in non tax revenues and disinvestment receipts relative to BE may necessitate modest spending cuts to avoid fiscal slippage
Source: CGA; ICRA research
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UPDATE ON SECTORAL GROWTH TRENDS
Chart 23: Performance of north-east monsoon remains sub-par, with weekly rainfall trailing normal levels in most weeks; cumulative rainfall received till December 14, 2016 was a substantial 43% below long period average (LPA)
Source: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD); ICRA research Chart 25: However, monsoon rains had replenished reservoir levels, which have undergone a seasonal drawdown to 62.3% as on December 15, 2016, while remaining higher than year-ago levels (48.7%)
Source: Central Water Commission (CWC); ICRA research
Chart 24: North-east monsoon (post-monsoon) rainfall in 2016 below-LPA in all sub-divisions, with the widest deficit in absolute terms in the south peninsula, as on December 14, 2016
Source: IMD; ICRA research Chart 26: Reservoir storage exceeded year-ago levels across all regions, barring the northern region, which would support the rabi crop
Source: CWC; ICRA research
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Chart 27: Cumulative rabi sowing exceeds year-ago levels for wheat, pulses and oilseeds, partly reflecting the healthy double-digit hike in MSP for the latter two; relaxations for withdrawal of cash and purchases of seeds by farmers have largely insulated rabi sowing from the cash crunch
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GoI; ICRA research Chart 29: Industrial output contracted by 0.3% in April-October 2016 led by deep de-growth in capital goods, while core sector expanded by 4.9%; favourable base, fewer holidays to offset impact of note ban in November 2016
Source: CSO; Office of the Economic Adviser, GoI; ICRA research
Chart 28: First Advance Estimates (AE) for FY2017 for kharif crops had predicted considerably higher expansion in output for pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals relative to the growth in their sown area, which may eventually prove to be somewhat optimistic
Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare, GoI; ICRA research
Chart 30: Contraction in overall coal output narrowed in September 2016 and October 2016; the output of the predominant producer CIL, expanded by 5.3% in November 2016 after three months of de-growth
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, GoI; ICRA research
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Chart 31: After posting subdued growth in April-October 2016 (Source: CSO), electricity generation expanded by 8.3% in November 2016 (Source: CEA), benefitting from a favourable base effect that would wane in later months
Source: CSO; CEA; ICRA research
Chart 33: Steel output recorded double-digit growth for the third consecutive month in October 2016, benefitting from the measures undertaken by GoI to curb imports; domestic demand of steel may be hampered by note ban, but buoyant international prices likely to provide cushion to domestic production
Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, GoI; ICRA research
Chart 32: Growth in cement output rose to 6.2% in October 2016 from 3.3% in Q2 FY2016; demand growth, already modest at 4.8% for 7MFY2017, likely to be affected negatively from disruption to real estate sector after note ban
Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, GoI; ICRA research Chart 34: Growth in motorcycle sales moderated to 7.4% in October 2016 from 16.5% in Q2 FY2017; subsequently, motorcycle sales contracted by 10.2% in November 2016, with deferment of purchases post note ban
Source: SIAM; ICRA research
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Chart 35: Robust growth in tractor production in Sept-October 2016 benefitted from improved farm sentiment and anticipation of bumper crop; severe contraction of 26.8% in tractor production in November 2016 reflects unfavourable base effect, as well as impact of note ban
Source: CMIE; ICRA research Chart 37: After expanding by a healthy 16.9% in October 2016, sales of M&HCVs contracted by 13.1% in November 2016, on account of the adverse impact of note ban; however, sales expected to pickup in Q4 FY2017 on account of change in emission norms
Source: SIAM; ICRA research
Chart 36: Sales of LCVs contracted by 10.6% in November 2016 after recording healthy growth of 11.2% in April-October 2016; note ban likely to severely impact the sales of this sector in the near-term, on account of high share of first time buyers and small fleet operators
Source: SIAM; ICRA research Chart 38: Subsequent to the double-digit growth recorded during much of FY2017, scooter sales contracted by a muted 1.9% in November 2016, dampened by the curtailment of demand post-note ban
Source: SIAM; ICRA research
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Chart 39: Growth of passenger vehicle sales eased to 4.5% in October 2016 and further to 1.8% in November 2016, avoiding contraction on account of waiting period for certain models; demand expected to stabilise once liquidity situation improves
Source: SIAM; ICRA research
Chart 41: Growth of merchandise exports in US$ terms moderated to a mild 2.3% in November 2016 from 9.6% in October 2016; the pace of growth of exports of petroleum products halved to 3.4% from 7.2%, respectively
Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI; ICRA research
Chart 40: After contracting for 22 months, merchandise imports (in US$ terms) increased by 8.1% and 10.4%, respectively in October 2016 and November 2016, led by gold, precious & semi-precious stones and crude oil
Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI; ICRA research Chart 42: YoY expansion of non-oil merchandise exports declined to 2.1% in November 2016 from 9.9% in October 2016, led by the adverse impact of the liquidity crunch on labour intensive industries such as gems & jewellery, textiles, manmade yarn & fabric
Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI; ICRA research
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Chart 43: Growth of services imports eased mildly to 9.5% in October 2016 from 11.4% in September 2016
Source: RBI; ICRA research Chart 45: Road freight rates eased in November 2016, despite rising diesel prices, with note ban impacting viability of fleet operators that have a high reliance on cash for transactions; decline in usable capacity may result in higher freight rates in the ongoing month
Source: Transport Corporation of India; ICRA research
Chart 44: Services exports reverted to a contraction of 1.7% in October 2016, after posting a growth of 3.4% in September 2016
Source: RBI; ICRA research Chart 46: Growth in cargo handled at major ports increased to 11.7% in October-November 2016 from 4.1% in Q2 FY2017, led by iron ore, petroleum products
Source: Ports Authority of India, GoI; ICRA research
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Y-o-Y Growth
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
180
181
182
183
184
185
Road Freight Index (LHS) Diesel Prices (Rs./litre; Delhi) (RHS)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Y-o-Y Growth
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Y-o-Y Growth
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Chart 47: Growth in air cargo traffic improved mildly to 13.5% in October 2016 from 8.4% in Q2 FY2017
Source: Airport Authority of India, GoI; ICRA research Chart 49: Diesel and petrol consumption charted a volatile trend in recent months; temporary dispensation of usage of old notes for fuel purchases prevented a disruption in the growth of consumption of diesel and petrol in November 2016
Source: PPAC, GoI; ICRA research
Chart 48: Railway revenue-carrying freight traffic increased to a 24-month high 5.5% in November 2016, after contracting for the previous four months
Source: Railway Board, GoI, CMIE; ICRA research Chart 50: Growth in air passenger traffic remained healthy at 19.2% in Apr-Oct 2016; sizeable addition to capacity and moderation of jet fuel prices have enabled airlines to offer promotional fares to increase PLFs in the domestic segment
Source: Airport Authority of India (AAI); ICRA research
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Y-o-Y Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Diesel Consumption Petrol Consumption
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Y-o-Y Growth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Y-o-Y Growth
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