ODYSSEE-MURE, a decision support tool for energy

efficiency policy evaluation

Recent energy efficiency trends in the EU

Didier Bosseboeuf, ADEME, project coordinatorBruno Lapillonne, Karine Pollier; Enerdata

Danish workshop, May 28th 2018

Outline

Energy consumption trends

Energy efficiency trends

Drivers of consumption variation

Energy intensity and structural changes

2

Energy consumption trends

Slight progression of the primary consumption since 2014, 4times slower than GDP, after a decrease of ~1%/yr between 2007and 2014.

Regular and rapid decrease of the primary energy intensity since2000 (~1.7%/year)

In 2016, EU primary energy consumption EU was closed to the2020 efficiency target (4% higher).

Primary energy consumption and intensity vs GDP (EU 28)

Consumption and intensity at normal climate, Source: Eurostat

-2,0%

-1,5%

-1,0%

-0,5%

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

2000/2007 2007-2016 2014-2016

%/y

ear

GDP Primary consumption Intensity

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

200020022004200620082010201220142016

2000=

100

GDP Primary consumption Intensity

Decreasing trend of the primary consumption in all countries in the period of slow economic growth or recession*

Strong reduction, between -2 and -4%/yr in 11 countries; Between -1 and -2%/yr in 12 countries

Variation of primary energy consumption* and GDP over 2007-2014

* Normal climate

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Lithuania

Gre

ece

Italy

Irela

nd

Spain

Rom

ania

Port

ugal

Cro

atia

Cypru

s

Denm

ark UK

Bulg

aria

Malta

EU

Neth

erlands

Slo

vakia

Hungary

Fin

land

Czech R

ep.

Luxem

bourg

Latv

ia

Germ

any

Slo

venia

Fra

nce

Belg

ium

Pola

nd

Austr

ia

Norw

ay

Sw

eden

Esto

nia

%/y

ear

primary GDP

*except in Poland, Sweden, Malta and Slovakia

Since 2014, with the economic recovery, increasing primary consumption in 18 countries as for the EU (that stood at 0.6%/year).For the other countries, decreasing consumption despite sustained economic GDP growth (except in France and Finland)

Variation of primary energy consumption* and GDP over 2014-2016

* Normal climate

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

Malta

Latv

ia

Luxem

bourg

Czech R

ep.

UK

Fra

nce

Fin

land

Esto

nia

Denm

ark

Cro

atia

Slo

venia

Gre

ece

Germ

any

Slo

vakia

Neth

erlands

Italy

EU

Austr

ia

Bulg

aria

Rom

ania

Port

ugal

Lithuania

Hungary

Spain

Pola

nd

Cypru

s

Sw

eden

Belg

ium

Irela

nd

Norw

ay

%/y

ear

primary GDP

Decrease of the final consumption (total and electricity) from 2007 to2014 in all sectors except services (-1.3%/yr for total, -0.6%/yr forelectricity).

Reverse trend since 2014: +1.4%/year for total but lower progressionfor electricity (0.8%/yr).

Households and services at normal climate (services include non-specified)

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

%/y

ear

Total

2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2016

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

%/y

ear

Electricity

2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2016

Energy efficiency trends

Energy efficiency of final consumers improved by 1.3%/yearbetween 2000 and 2016 (1.4%/yr before 2007 and between2010-2014). Slight slow down between 2014-2016 (0.5%/year).

Larger gains for households (2%/yr since 2000) with a slow downsince 2012 (0.9 %/yr against 2.4%/yr over the previous period).

Rate of improvement almost divided by 2 in industry, since 2007(-1%/compared to 1.8%/yr before).

Regular but limited improvement in transport (0.9%/year):greater for cars than for trucks.

Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers (EU)

ODEX=81 in 2016 19% energy efficiency improvement or 1.3%/yr

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Industry Transport Households Services Total

Energy efficiency improvement above 1.5%/year since 2007 in 15 countries, of which 7 have accelerated their rate of improvement since 2007.

To be compared to Article 7 target of EED.

Energy efficiency improvements of final consumers by country

-10%

-9%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

Lithuania

Esto

nia

Bulg

aria

Pola

nd

Latv

ia

Slo

vakia

Hungary

Irela

nd

Czech R

ep.

UK

Cypru

s

Italy

Cro

atia

Neth

erlands

EU

Luxem

bourg

Gre

ece

Slo

venia

Norw

ay

Austr

ia

Germ

any

Fin

land

Sw

eden

Belg

ium

Rom

ania

Port

ugal

Denm

ark

Spain

Denm

ark

Fra

nce

2000-2007 2007-2015/16

Largerprogresssince 2007

Around 235 Mtoe energy savings in 2016 compared to 2000 (i.e. 20% of final energy consumption).

Without these savings the final energy consumption would have been 20% higher in 2016.

Most of these savings come from households (43%), 30% from industry, 23% from transport and 4% from services.

Energy savings (EU)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mto

e

Industry Transport Households Services

30%

23%

43%

4%

Industry Transport

Households Services

Drivers of consumption variation2010-2016

The primary consumption decreased faster than the final consumption between 2010 and 2016.

This is mainly explained by a change in the power mix (higher share of renewables, lower share of nuclear).

Drivers of primary energy consumption variation (EU): 2010-2016

http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html

-114,7

-55,5

-8,9-2,7

-34,0

-13,6

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Mto

e

Var. primary cons. Var. cons. final

Electricity penetration Efficiency of thermal power plants

Power mix Other transformations

Between 2010 and 2016, 3 main factors contributed to raise the final energy consumption: 1) economic activity (by 50 Mtoe) demography (9 Mtoe) and lifestyles (appliance ownership and larger dwellings) (7 Mtoe). All these two factors have a lower impact than before.

Four factors offset these effects and contributed to lower consumption by 110 Mtoe, among which the largest are energy savings (75 Mtoe) and the colder climate in 2015 compared to 2010 (35 Mtoe). The magnitude of the climate is becoming quite large compared to the other factors.

Drivers of final energy consumption variation (EU): 2010-2016

http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html

-55,5

49,4

9,1 7,4

-5,1

-74,7

-35,1

-6,5

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Mto

e

Var. cons. final Activity Demography Lifestyles

Structure Energy savings Climate Other

Energy intensity and structural changes

ODYSSEE-MURE Project EE trends

Decomposition of the final energy intensity: EU

ODYSSEE-MURE Project WP 2 –ODYSSEE database

-1,8%

-1,6%

-1,4%

-1,2%

-1,0%

-0,8%

-0,6%

-0,4%

-0,2%

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

2000-2010 2010-2015 2000-2015

%/y

ear

Total Total structure effect Savings Other

The final energy intensity can be explained by 3 factors: • Structure effect (between main sectors in the GDP and between

industrial branches), • Energy savings and • other effects.

Savings explained a large part of the intensity decrease (around 80%)

The primary consumption target for 2020 should be easily reached, taking into account the present trends.

The increasing share of renewables explains around 30% of the decrease in primary energy consumption reduction, while 60% of that reduction is coming from final consumers.

Energy efficiency improved the most in sectors with strong regulations (households and cars) and the trend was not affected by the crisis and was even reinforced.

Conclusions

Thank you for your attention

For more information

Didier.bosseboeuf@ademe.fr

Tel : 00 33 1 47652355

www.odyssee-mure.eu