OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...13 Bcfd of Interstate Pipeline Capacity Added in 2018 Source: Office of...

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOTNational – Data Through April 2019

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

May 2019

http://www.ferc.gov/oversight


2018 State of the Markets

Report


Highlights

• Natural gas markets experienced record high demand and supply.• Natural gas storage fell to a multi-year low.• Pipeline additions helped to reduce Marcellus bottlenecks.• Higher average prices were seen nationally for both gas and electric markets.• Capacity additions were led by natural gas-fired and wind-powered generation.

3

3

Natural Gas Prices Increased in 2018

Source: S&P Global Platts

2018 Average

Spot Natural Gas

Prices

>=5.15<=1.95

$/MMBtu

(Percent

change since ’17)

4

4

Natural Gas Storage Hit Multi-Year Low

Source: EIA

5

5

Natural Gas Production Reached Record Highs in 2018

Source: EIA Natural Gas Monthly and Drilling Productivity Report; denotes average daily dry production

6

6

13 Bcfd of Interstate Pipeline Capacity Added in 2018

Source: Office of Energy Projects

1.8 Bcfd302 mi.

6.6 Bcfd109 mi.

0 Bcfd0 mi.

4.7 Bcfd270 mi.

Total 2018 Gas Pipeline Infrastructure AdditionsCapacity: 13.1 BcfdMiles: 689 mi.

7

7

Power Burn Drove Natural Gas Demand Increase

Source: EIA, Bentek Energy; bars denote average daily demand by sector

8

8

U.S. Position As Net Exporter of Natural Gas Grew in 2018

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; denotes average daily imports and exports

9

9

Reported Index Volumes Nearly Doubled

Source: S&P Global Platts

10

10

Natural Gas Pipeline Outages Had Electric Market Impacts

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite

Westcoast BC

Outage

Sumas Border

Hub

Northwest

Pipeline

GTN

RubyPG&E

Westcoast BC

Paiute

PG&E TransWestern

El Paso

Kern River

SoCal System

SoCal

Outages

Aliso Canyon Restriction

Los Angeles

San Diego

11

11

Day-Ahead Power Prices Generally Increased

Average Annual

DA On-Peak

Prices

Nodal Prices: $/MWh

(2018)

<=2

5

>=5

5Hub Prices:

$: $/MWh (2018)

%: Percent

change since ‘17

Source: Nodal prices from ABB Velocity Suite. ISO hub prices from SNL’s ISO Day-Ahead On Peak Prices data. Mid-Columbia, Palo Verde, and Into Southern prices from SNL’s S&P Global Market Intelligence Day-Ahead – Annual On Peak Prices data.

12

12

Capacity Market Prices Held Steady

Source: ISO/RTO webpages

13

13

Most Generation Capacity Additions Were Natural Gas & Solar

Source: EIA- Form 860M. Data do not cover additions or retirements in Alaska or Hawaii.

14

14

Electricity Demand Remained Steady

Source: EIA Forms 826 & 861

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gig

awat

tho

urs

Electric Consumption by Sector

Residential Commercial Industrial

15

15

The Western Energy Imbalance Market Continued to Evolve

Source: Derived from ABB Velocity Suite.

16

16

Northwest Led Daily and Hourly Transactions in Bilateral Markets

Source: Derived from Electric Quarterly Reports (EQR)

17

17


Summer 2019 Reliability and

Energy Market Assessment


Highlights• Higher than average temperatures are expected in the West, South and East.

• Reserve margins are expected to be adequate in all regions except ERCOT.

• Aliso Canyon natural gas storage inventories remain an item of interest for electric reliability within the Western Interconnection.

• Natural gas futures price movements are mixed when compared to 2018 summer levels.

• Battery storage and wind and solar capacity will exceed previous summer levels.

• New LNG export capacity will drive natural gas demand growth.

• High natural gas injections are predicted to return storage to average levels.

• High hydroelectric power production is expected in California but below-average levels are expected in the Pacific Northwest.

19

19

Summer Temperatures Expected to be Above Normal

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

20

20

Modest Growth of Forecast Generation Capacity

Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation

21

21

Reserve Margins Adequate in All Regions Except ERCOT

Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation

22

22

Source: InterContinental ExchangeNote: Summer futures prices are the average July and August futures contract hub price added to the Henry Hub for April 1, 2019.

2019 Summer

Natural Gas

Futures Prices

>=5.88<=1.11

$/MMBtu

(Percent

change from

2018 settled

futures)

Summer 2019 Natural Gas Futures Price Changes Mixed

23

23

LNG In-Services Drive Demand Growth

Source: S&P Global, Inc. forecasts as of March 20, 2019

24

24

Natural Gas Storage to Return to Average Levels

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

25

25

Natural Gas Has the Highest Share of Generation Capacity

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Capacity MixCoal

Hydro

NaturalGasNuclearOil

Other

3561 101 171 41 81 386 Total GW200

26

26

Power Burn Expected to Increase

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

27

27

Narrow Coal-Natural Gas Spread Promotes Diverse Generation

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CME Group

Sept2019

28

28

Strong Hydro Expected in California but Moderate in Other Western States

Source: Natural Resources Conservation Service, US Department of Agriculture

Mid-C

Grand Coulee Dam

29

29

Import Restrictions to Affect Pacific Northwest

Source: ABB Velocity Suite

30

30

Battery Storage Capacity Continuing to Grow through the Summer

Source: US Energy Information Administration Form 860M

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(throughAugust)

MW

Current and Planned Battery Storage by Year

31

31

Wind & Solar Capacity Continue Increasing

Source: US Energy Information Administration Form 860M

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(throughAugust)

MW

Cumulative Net Capacity of Wind and Solar Photovolatic

Solar Photovoltaic Wind

32

32

National Slides

33


NOAA June 2019 Through August 2019 Outlook

34

34



2181

Pittsburgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

NYC

OklahomaCity

DallasLos

Angeles

Sacramento

Denver

Portland

Houston New

OrleansMiami

Vancouver

2019

2018

2012 - 2017

Cumulative HDDs by CityApril 2019

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)

Atlanta

Updated

423

589513

0

00

278

472362

325

571400

86

202122

22

3419

440

711509

133

339179

69

13164

38

4317

383

523406

441

516500

238

267249

870

343348

570

196146

84

10690

Apr-2019

35


../../2011/Prices.xls#Sheet3!D1



2181

Pittsburgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

NYC

OklahomaCity

DallasLos

Angeles

Sacramento

Denver

Portland

Houston New

Orleans Miami

Vancouver

2019

2018

2012 - 2017

Cumulative CDDs by CityApril 2019

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)

Atlanta

Updated

5

04

9

612

389

363390

6

129

91

1152

172

93181

5

04

40

2338

110

67126

190

110187

0

00

1

10

0

00

0

96

0

1021

12

1724

Apr-2019

36





2181

ColumbiaTCO

AlgonquinCitygate

AECO

Pricing Point

BOLD – This Year

Green – % increase from

previous year

Red – % decrease from

previous year

ChicagoCitygate

TranscoZ6-NY

NGPLMidcon

El PasoPermian

SoCal

Border

PG&ECitygate

CIG

HSCHenry

Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)April 2019

Source: Platts Updated

$2.59

-49%$2.37

-15%

$2.56

-6%

$2.35

-5%

$2.59

-6%

$2.45

-11%

$1.88

-15%$0.22

-87%

$2.55

-10%

$0.83

-37%

$1.78

-8%

$3.20

19%

$1.72

-18%

NW Stanfield

$1.97

1%

Apr-2019

37





$ = Average 2019 Spot Price*% Decrease/Increase from 2018*Average Monthly On-Peak Day-Ahead

from January to AprilSPP Price is an average of the North and South Hubs Source: S&P Global Intelligence and ISO/RTO Data

NP 15

Palo Verde

Mid-Columbia Indiana

Hub

SPP

ERCOTNorth

PJM WestNYISO ZJ

Mass Hub

Into Southern

2019 Spot Power Prices ($/MWh)

$46.34

122%

$45.94

46%

$38.17

46%

$33.03

-9%

$28.32

8%

$28.23

-10%

$30.53

0%

$42.93

-31%

$42.24

-25%

$32.72

-28%

38



U.S. NG Supply and Demand

November 2017 – March 2018 vs November 2018 – March 2019

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data2163

39

Updated

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2017/2018 2018/2019

Average D

aily S

upply

(B

cfd

)

US Natural Gas Supply

LNG Imports

Canadian Imports

Net Dry GasProduction

-26.3%

-16.5%

10.8%

Total Change in Supply: 8.9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2017/2018 2018/2019

Av

era

ge

Da

ily

Vo

lum

e (

Bcfd

)

US Natural Gas Demand

Power Generation

Total Change in Demand:

Industrial

4.3%

Residential/ Commercial

7.0%

1.1%

4.6%

Mexican Exports

LNG Exports 49.1%

11.7%

Apr-2019



National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

40

Updated

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

Bcf

d

Northwest Net ImportsMidwest Net ImportsNortheast Net Imports

Apr-2019



Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.20009

41

Updated

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf

d

2014-18 Range 2019

Apr-2019



U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation


42

Updated

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Bcf

d

2014 - 2018 Range

2019

Apr-2019



EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

43

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Sto

rage

(B

cf)

5 Year Range 2019-2020 2018-2019

Apr-2019



EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

44

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

EAST 0

500

1,000

1,500

WEST

0

100

200

300

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

5 Year Range 2019-2020 2018-2019

PRODUCING

0100200300400500

PACIFIC0

500

1,000

1,500

SOUTH CENTRAL

Apr-2019



Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data


45

Updated

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bcf

d

Dry Production

Apr-2019



Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated

46

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000M

ay-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Feb

-18

May

-18

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Feb

-19

May

-19

Bak

er H

ugh

es R

ig C

ou

nt

(Rig

s)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

Apr-2019



Competing Fuels

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Competing Fuels


Notes:

Updated

47

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

Fuel

Pri

ce (

$/M

MB

tu)

Nymex Henry HubBig Sandy Barge (Low Sulfur Coal)WTI Crude Oil

Apr-2019



Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and

9 power plants.


48

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Dai

ly L

NG

Sen

do

ut

(MM

cfd

)

Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GatewayExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Modeled)Neptune

0

1,000

2,000

3,000 Monthly Average

Apr-2019



U.S Exports of LNG

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Exports


49

Updated

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

Bcf

dSabine Pass Cove Point Corpus Christi

Apr-2019



Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

Note: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated Landed Prices:

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40Lake Charles

$3.96Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Japan

$13.10

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93Altamira

$4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40Lake Charles

$3.96Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

China

50

Updated

5.03$

4.99$ 5.00$

4.99$

4.88$

4.61$

2.60$ 2.70$

2.48$

4.75$

5.03$

Apr-19

Apr-2019

50



Historical and World Gas Futures Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs


Notes:

Updated

51

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20M

ay-1

7

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

$/M

MB

tu

Henry Hub TZ6 NY

Algonquin Citygates UKNBP

Japanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

Apr-2019



National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

52

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100O

il P

rice

s ($

/Bar

rel)

WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price

Apr-2019



National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

Nymex Futures Curves

53

$2.45

$2.55

$2.65

$2.75

$2.85

$2.95

$3.05

$3.15

$3.25

$3.35

Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20

Nym

ex F

utu

res

Cu

rves

($

/MM

Btu

)

5/7/2018 4-9-2019 12-7-2018 5-7-2019

Apr-2019



Infrastructure Report

Office of Energy Projects Energy

Infrastructure Update

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab)


http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp


Natural Gas Highlights

55



Electric Generation Highlights56



Electric Transmission Highlights57



Installed Generating Capacity and Proposed Additions

58


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