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OEAS 604: Final Exam
• Tuesday, 8 December• 8:30 – 11:30 pm• Room 3200, Research Innovation
Building I • Exam is cumulative• Questions similar to quizzes with
focus on concepts
Physical-biological Interactions OEAS 604
Lecture Outline
1) Recruitment to marine fisheries 2) Modeling physical-biological
interactions3) Global environmental change
programs
Recruitment patterns
Why patterns occur and what are key processes?
Changes in Abundance of Key Species
Calanus helgolandicusCalanus finmarchicus
mon
ths
Years (1958-1999)60657075808590951
23456789101112
0.20.40.60.811.21.41.6
6065707580859095123456789101112
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
Years (1958-1999)
Copepod abundance in North Sea
Consequences for fish production and recruitment
(Beaugrand)
Challenge • Recruitment to marine fish populations
depends on: • Variations in larval feeding and nutrition –
Lasker (1981)> larval feeding provides direct link from zooplankton to
the consumer
• Advection into favorable/unfavorable environmental conditions – Hjort (1914)
> requires knowledge of the scales that are relevant to the planktonic organism
Combining two requires understanding of dependence of population dynamics on the physical structure of the ocean and links to ecosystem dynamics
Scales of Processes
• View that marine ecosystems operate along a continuum defined by space and time
• Now - View has evolved to one in which marine ecosystem variability and population recruitment result from the integration of processes across all scales and includes direct as well as indirect interactions
Processes at all scalesinfluence variability of marine organisms and
populations
Studies of marineecosystems require
integration of theenvironmental drivers
and biological responses
Knowledge of scale interactions have resulted in additional hypotheses about physical-biological
controls on recruitment
Development of conceptual frameworks forrecruitment that encompass multiple scales
Trophic transfer andhabitat conditions
Field and Modeling Programs to Test Conceptual Models
Russia
Modeling Physical-Biological Interactions
• Modeling has been central to advancing understanding of physical-biological interactions
• Built on scientific and technological advances, such as realistic circulation models
• Integration of concentration-based models and IBMs with circulation models resulted in ability to project future states of ecosystems and to understand processes
• Allowed identification of spawning areas, recruitment regions, connectivity of populations at a range of scales
Understand the processes controlling thespring bloom
Used a regression model that included environmental variables – temperature
Riley (1946, JMR)
No predictivepower or indication ofcontrollingprocesses
Developed a mechanistic mathematical model
dP = P(Ph – R – G)dt
Time change P = photosynthesis – respiration – grazing
Included processes that affect the concentration and abundance of phytoplankton
Physical-biological modelsevolved to systems of
interconnected modules
NEMURO - minimum trophic structure and biological
relationships … thought to be essential in describing
ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific
Realistic RegionalCirculation Models
Coastal Gulfof Alaska
West Antarctic Peninsula
Include sea ice, couplingto atmospheric modelsand larger scale models
Connection between spawning and recruitment regions
Inclusion of detailed biology provides process understanding
Population connectivity at regional to circumpolar scales
Importanceof
comparativestudies
Thorpe et al. (2007)
FutureModels evolving
to include humansas part of the
marine food web
Importance of top predatorsincluding humans
Perry et al. (in press)
Barange et al. (in press)
Tuna Forage Model
New Production
Temperature, Currents, Plankton Biomass, Oxygen
Populationvariability
Age Structured Model
Fishing catch
CLIOTOP
Global Environmental Change Programs
• Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) Program
• Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere (SOLAS)• Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone
(LOICZ)• Past Global Changes (PAGES)• International research programs sponsored by
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR)
IMBERIMBERFOUR RESEARCHFOUR RESEARCH
THEMESTHEMES
Interactions between biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs
Sensitivity to global change
Feedbacks to the Earth System
Responses of society
SOLAS• understand the key biogeochemical-physical
interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere
• Exchange processes at the air-sea interface and the role of transport and transformation in the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers
• Air-sea flux of CO2 and other long-lived radiatively active gases
LOICZ
• support sustainability and adaptation to global change in the coastal zone
• include developing and testing integrated multidisciplinary (natural+economic+social) methods to analyze the environmental and social interactions and feedbacks governing coastal system status and changes
PAGES
• improve our understanding of past changes in the Earth System in order to improve projections of future climate and environment, and inform strategies for sustainability
Future Earth
COP21
Next Class
• Instruments and models• Chapter 6, Talley et al.