Drivers and transitions for global transport: preliminary results from

an international Delphi study

Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering

Energy Cultures II Project, Centre for Sustainability

November 2013

Background

A workstream of Energy Cultures 2 research programme:“…what is possible with new technologies and practices for energy efficiency and conservation?”

The current fossil fuel-dominated transport system:– contributed 22% of total GHG emissions in 2010– is vulnerable to shocks in oil supply and pricing

These twin challenges of climate change and oil insecurity can be addressed, in part, by a global transition to low-carbon, energy-efficient (“sustainable”) transport systems.

Method: The Delphi Technique

An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics

A panel of global experts:

Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).

Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour

Stages

• Round Zero: Skype-based interviews with 6 key panel members

• Round One: A qualitative internet-based survey sent to 30 panel members, 23 responses received

• Round Two: A quantitative internet-based survey sent to 30 panel members, 22 responses received

Characteristics of a sustainable transport system

Characteristics of a sustainable transport system

Change Trends

Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years

1 = low, 5 = highPo

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High – High:A : Increasing investment in public transportB: Uptake of travel substitution technologiesC: Increasing public environmental concernD: Uptake of efficient carsE: Uptake of electric vehiclesF: Uptake of active transport

Low potential to transformHigh likelihood of becoming widespread:I: Decreasing youth car ownershipJ: Uptake of shared personal transportK: Decreasing youth car licensing

High potential to transformLow likelihood of becoming widespread:G: Uptake of autonomous vehiclesH: Substantial reduction in VKT

Discontinuities

Likelihood of occurring within 10 years

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High – High:A: Political instability in oil-rich countriesB: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologiesC: Increased public and political concern about climate change

Low potential to transformHigh likelihood of occurring:D: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countriesE: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected

High potential to transformLow likelihood of occurring:F: Global price on carbonG: Acute resource scarcityH: Significant global economic decline

E

Low - Low:I: Political instability in China and/or IndiaJ: Readily available oil sources foundK: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion

Material culture

PracticesNorms

Transport Culture

Changing transport cultures

Do

Have

Think

Changes in material culture…

Changes in practices…

Changes in norms…

collaborative cultures

Where & how these are coalescing to become transport transitions

Material culture

PracticesNorms

Masdar’s EC of Experimentation

London’s EC of Diversity

Beijing’s EC of Speed

Conclusions

• Agreement over the need for transition to a ‘sustainable transport system’

• Evidence of changing transport energy cultures globally

• Potential for significant future change

• Round 3 will invite ideas on relevance to NZ

• This will inform a New Zealand-based Delphi in 2014

Questions

Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering

Janet.stephenson@otago.ac.nz