DOCUMENT RESUME ED 027 990 95 RC 003 247 By-Johnson, Ronald L.; Johnson, Kent J. Outmigration from North Dakota, A Comparison between Male Outmigrants in Four States and their North Dakota Counterparts. North Dakota Univ., Grand Forks. Spons Agency-Office of Education (DHEW), Washington, D.C. Bureau of Research. Pub Date 68 Note- 37p. EDRS Price MF-$0.25 HC-$1.95 Descriptors-Community Characteristics, Comparative Analysis, *Demography, Males, *Migrants, Migration Patterns, Mobility, Occupational Aspiration, Population Trends, *Psychological Characteristics, Relocation, *Rural Population, Social Adjustment, Social Differences, *Social Factors, Socioeconomic Influences Identifiers-*North Dakota A study compared social and social-psychological characteristics of 112 male respondents who moved to 4 other states from North Dakota (the most rural state in the nation) between the years 1961 and 1965 with similar characteristics of 513 North Dakota male residents who remained in their respective communities throughout the five-year period. Hypotheses involved.demographic characteristics, socioeconomic characteristics, occupational aspiration, community satisfaction, and anticipated social cost. Migrants were more likely than stz~,bles to be married, to be younger, and to have a higher level of educational attainment. Migrants tended to have higher ranked non-farm oCcupations, to change occupations more, and to aspire to more prestigious positions. Migrants were less satisfied with certain attributes of their home community, and they were less likely to feel they would have difficulty finding housing and a job and making family adjustments in another community. (JAM)
Transcript
DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 027 990 95 RC 003 247
By-Johnson, Ronald L.; Johnson, Kent J.Outmigration from North Dakota, A Comparison between Male Outmigrants in Four States and their North
Dakota Counterparts.North Dakota Univ., Grand Forks.Spons Agency-Office of Education (DHEW), Washington, D.C. Bureau of Research.
Patterns, Mobility, Occupational Aspiration, Population Trends, *Psychological Characteristics, Relocation,
*Rural Population, Social Adjustment, Social Differences, *Social Factors, Socioeconomic Influences
Identifiers-*North DakotaA study compared social and social-psychological characteristics of 112 male
respondents who moved to 4 other states from North Dakota (the most rural state inthe nation) between the years 1961 and 1965 with similar characteristics of 513North Dakota male residents who remained in their respective communities throughoutthe five-year period. Hypotheses involved.demographic characteristics, socioeconomiccharacteristics, occupational aspiration, community satisfaction, and anticipatedsocial cost. Migrants were more likely than stz~,bles to be married, to be younger, andto have a higher level of educational attainment. Migrants tended to have higherranked non-farm oCcupations, to change occupations more, and to aspire to moreprestigious positions. Migrants were less satisfied with certain attributes of theirhome community, and they were less likely to feel they would have difficulty findinghousing and a job and making family adjustments in another community. (JAM)
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors wish to acknowledge the efforts ofall who assisted in the research. Special mentionis made of the contribution of Jerry Berg whodeveloped programs for statistical analysis on theIBM 360 at the University of North Dakota ComputerCenter. The assistance of Connie Johnson in pre-paring the preliminary and final drafts of thh reportand David Ripley for his contributions to the coverand the printing of the material is also acknowledged.
0.1
TABLE OF CONTENTSPage
Acknowledgements
List of Tables iv.
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. PREVIOUS STUDY 2
III. RESEARCH DESIGN
IV. HYPOTHESES 10
V. ANALYSIS 12
Demographic Variables and Migration 12
Socioeconomic Variables and Migration 13
Social Psychological Variables and Migration Occupational Aspiration 17
Community Satisfaction 17
Anticipated Social Cost 24
VI. DISCUSSION 26
VII. CONCLUSION 30
iv.
LIST OF TABU'S
Table Page
1. Relationship Between Marital Status and Migration Category 12
2. Distribution of Age by Migration Category 12
3. Distribution of Educational Attainment by Migration Category 13
4. Distribution of Occupational Category 5 Years Before Migration Period by MigrationCategory 14
5. Distribution of Present Occupational Status by Migration Category 15
6. Distribution of Present Annual Income by Migration Category 15
7. Distribution of Number of Organizational Membership by Migration Category 16
8. Distribution of Occupational Mobility by Migration Category 16
9. Distribution of Occupational Aspiration by Migration Category 17
10. Distribution of Responses to the Item, "Anything of a Progressive Nature is GenerallyApproved" by Migration Category 18
11. Distribution of Responses to the Item, "With a Few Exceptions the Leaders are Capableand Ambitious" by Migration Category 18
12. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "Persons with Real Ability are Usually GivenRecognition" by Migration Category 19
13. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "The Climate is as Good as any other Place in theU.S. " by Migration Category 19
14. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "The School Teachers are Equal to TeachersAnywhere" by Migration 20
15. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "The Medical Facilities are Good and Adequate"by Migration Category 20
16. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "Salaries are Usually Fair and Adequate in theN.D. Community" by Migration Category 21
17. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "Recreational Facilities are Abundant andVaried" by Migration Category 22
18. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "It is Difficult for People to Get Togetheron Anything" by Migration Category 22
177,77,Tfvv.7.F.
V.
Table19. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "That A Person Has To Leave the Community
in Order to Have A Good Time" by Migration Category 23
20. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "People Have to do Without Adequate ShoppingFacilities" by Migration Category 23
21. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "Employment Opportunities are PracticallyNonexistent" by Migration Category 24
22. Response to Item: "Measuring Anticipated Social Cost" by Migration Category 24
Page
INTRODUCTION
This monograph provides a basic description of social and social psychological characteristics of
a sample of male respondents who moved from North Dakota during the years from 1961 through 1965.
Primary emphasis is placed on a comparison between the outmigrants and a sample of residents from 21
areas in North Dakota who have remained in their community throughout the five year period. The
discussion focuses on the comparison of the stables and outmigrants in terms of percentage distribution.
However, appropriate tests of significance are made in order to ascertain the extent to which differ-
ences might be generalized to the populations from which the samples are drawn.
The area of migration has been important in sociological and social psychological research. The
formal demographer has been concerned largely with the estimation of migration rates as well as the
other factors which comprise the demographic equation where population change in a given
geographic area is seen as a function of natural increase (consisting of the differences between
number of births minus the number of deaths) and net migration (migration into minus migratbn
from the area).
Other students of population concentrate on research on the relationship between such social
characteristics as age and sex, marital, occupation status and migration behavior. Social psycho-
logists investigate the correlations of value orientation, aspirations, and satisfaction levels (among
other variables). with migration.
The study of migration from North Dakota is basic to an understanding of problems facing this
rural area. According to the 1960 census of population, North Dakota is the most rural state in the
nation with 64,8 percent of the population living in rural areas. It has long been a state which has
been characterized by high net outmigration. It was estimated that during the 1950-1960 period
the state's natural growth was offset in large part by the net migration of 105,000 people from the
state)
Vangsness, Elmer, "North Dakota Resources Inventory," Fargo, North Dakota: Unpublished
survey compiled at North Dakota State University, 1962.
'Z'76
2
re recent estimates made by the North Dakota Economk Development Commission indkated that the
e has experienced a net loss of 45,541 from 1960 through 1966.2 Such net outmigration from North
ota is part of a general process whkh responds to changing capacities in agricultural based areas and
attraction and perceived opportunity in the more urban areas of the nation. The pattern of rural-urban
igmtion has long been one of the major streams involved in internal migration.
PREVIOUS STUDY
The present literature in the area of migration research is based mainly on census data. Wilber
rooted that "Since most of the-census data on migration is easily accessible, and remyrces_to
ther fresh data in the field are limited, an easy and perhaps justifiable course of action ittirresort to
emus data in planning and executing a research project".3 With regard to North Dakota the work of
ohn M. Gillette In the area of population study emphasizing migration into and from North Dakota
based on the use orcerisus data .4 Census data was used by Ramsey and others in analyzing migration
n Minnesota, Ramsey and Anderson in New York and McNamara, New and Pappenfort in Missouri,
nd Riley in South Dakota .5 Although most findlngs have been based on census data, some research
onclusions have been sUpported by survey data, Noteworthy examples have been survey research which
41
2 Unpublished data of North Dakota Economic Development Commission, Bismarck, North Dakota,
196743 George L. Wilber, "Determinants of Migration Research and their Consequences," Population
Research and Administrative Planning, ed. by George L. Wilber and Ellen S. Bryant, State College,
Proceedings of the Conference on Southern Population, Dea. 5-6, 1961, Conference Series
No. 10, Division of Sociology and Rural Life, Mississippi State University, June 1962, ID. 53.
4John M. Gillette, Social Economics af North Dakota, Minneapolis, Minn: Burgess Publishing Ca.
1942, pp. 67-85.5 Charles E. Ramsey, Allan D. Orman, and Lowry Nelsons Migration in Minnesota, 1940-1950,
St. Paul, University of Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station, Bulletin 422, Jan. 1954; Charles E.
Ramsey and Walfred A. Anderson, Migration of the New York State Population, Ithaca, N.Y. Comeli
University Agricultural Experiment Station, Bulletin 929, June 1958; Robert 1, McNamara, Peter New,
and Donnen Papponfort, Rural-Urban Population Change and Migration in Missouri 1940-1950, Columbia
Misiouri; University of Missouri Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin 620, April 1959; Marvin P. Ritz,
Where Native South Dakotans Lived in 1960, Brookings, S.D.; South Dakota Stdre University Agricultural
Experiment Station, August 1965#
3
has been directed at Michigan State University .6 A follow-up study of those who were high school
seniors in 1947 in Pennsylvania also has provided valuable research informotion.7 Analysis of the
including social characteristics of age and education have indicated that both variables are associated
with migration behavior. Migrants tend to be younger than nonmigrants,8 Evidence supports the hypo-
thesis that rural-urban migration is selective of those who have the most education.9 In analyzing the
relationship between marital status and migration it is reported that migration is selective of single
peopla, although the opposite was indicated in a Pennsylvania study .10
Migration research has focused on the differentials in occupational status between migrants and
stables. According to Thomlinson, occupational characteristics vary according to type of migration.
He states that internal migration is more selective of those in higher status categories with professionals
ranked at the top and the unskilled being the least likely to migrate,11 Research in Indiana indicated
that migrants tend to have higher incomes than stables.12
Previous studies of social participation have indicated the high positive relationship between
occupation status and membership in formal associations.13 Viewing participation as interrelated with
6 Beegle, J. Allan, "Sociological Aspects of Change in Farm Labor Force," Labor Mobility and
Population in Agriculture, Ames, Iowa; Iowa Stete University Press, 1961, pp. 73-81. Also Harold
Goldsmith and J. Allan Beegle, The Initial Phase of Voluntary Migration, East Lansing, Michigan;
Michigan State University Rural Sociology Studies, No, 1, June 1962, Rolf Schulze, Jay Artis, and
J. Allan Beegle, "The Measurement of Community Satisfaction and the Decision to Migrate," Research
Note( Rural Sociology, Vol. 28, Sept, 1963, No 3, pp, 279-283./ Harold L,, Brown and Roy C. Buck, Factors Associated with the Migrant Status of Young Adult
Males from Rural Pennsylvania, University Park, Pa; Pennsylvania State University Agricultural Experi-
ment Station Bulletin 676, .1961.8 Ralph Thomlinson, Population Dynamics: Causes and Consequences of World Demographic Chlnge
New York: Random House, fne.., 1965, Also Lois K. Cohen and S. Edward Schuh, Job Mobility and
Migration, Purdue University Agricultural Experiment Station Research Bulletin, No. 763, May 1963.
9 Walter L. Slocum, Agricultural Sociology, New York; H arper and Brothers, 1962; Thomlinson,
Op. Cit.; Wade H, Andrews and Joseph Sardo, Migration and Migrants from Sedgwick County, Colorad
Fort Collins, Colo.; Colorado State University Agricultural Experiment Station, Technical Bulletin 82,
1962,10 William Peterson, Population, New York: The Macmillan Company, 1961; Brown and Buck,
Op, Cit.; indicate that a higher proportion of migrants are married.11 Thomlinson, Op Cit.12 Cohen and Schuh, Op. Cit,; Andrews and Sardo, Op. Cit.13 Philip M. Hansen and Otis Dudley Duncan, The Study of Population: An Inventory and Apprai
Chicago; University of Chicago Press, 1959.
4
e s occupational status leads to the conclusion that oultmigrants participate more in community organ-
ations than stables although stables who live in the receiver community have higher participation rates
an migrants.
Researchers examine social psycirlogical factors which encourage or retard migration. Such variables
re relatively subjective. According to Duncan and Hauser:
"The individual migrant may experience a stimulus to migrate as
a subjective supression of socio-economic conditions in his community.
He may also have subjective reactions to his objective social and
personal positton in his community or to events that happen in his
priVate life (deaths, marriage, etc.). By comparing his position in the
present community with, envisaged or possible positions in other14communities he arrives at a decision to move or remain .
Thus, the decision o migrate is considered to be a process in which an individual takes into account
;the satisfaction of life in the present community against the perceived cost of migrating to another area.
Important facts then which effect the individual's decision to migrate include the individual's level of
,satisfaction with his present community as a negative force, expectation of occupational mobility as a
variable which would encourage migration behavior, and estimated social cost of leaving the primary
groups in the home community and adjusting to a new environment as negative factors influencing the
decision .15
A review of the literature on migration indicates that community satisfaction is negatively related to
migration behavior. An individual who is not satisCied with the important characteristics of his
community is more likely to migrate to secure special advantages of another community. Community
satisfaction was found by Yowmans to be a dominant factor in the individual*s plan to migrate)6
On the other hand it is anticipated that there should be a positive relationship between expected change
in occupational status and the decision to migrate. A study conducted by Taves and Collier
14 Beegle, Op.. Cite.15 R.G. Klietsche, Social Response to Population Champ and Migration, Ames, Iowa, North
Central Regional Publication, No, 153, Iowa State University, Agricultural and Home Economics
Experiment Station, Sept, 1964,
16 E. Gran Yawmans, The Educational Attainment and Future Plans of Kentucky Rural Youths,15
Lexington, Ky,: Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin 664, January 1 9 9.
_
.r
5
indicated that occupational aspirations played a dominant role in the individual's perception of
migration as part of the "Success Theme" in our culture.17 The estimates of social cost may be negatively
related to migration. If the individual perceives migration as being costly he will probably want to
remain in his present community. 18
17 Marvin D. Taves and Richard W. Collier, In Search of Opportunity: A Study of Post High School
Migration in Minnesota, St. Paul: University of Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station, Technical
Bulletin 247, 1964.18Klietache, Op. Cit.
6
RESEARCH DESIGN
The population from which the samples for this study were drawn consists of North Dakota residents
r those who had moved from North Dakota during the five year period of 1962-1966. Because of the
haracteristics of North Dakota's population'a special two stage sampling plan was used. The urban
mple was drawn by stratified random sampling to the urban communities which were arranged in order
f size. The urban communities selected for the study were Minot, Bismarck, Mandan, Wahpeton,
evils Lake, Rugby, and Bottineau. Systematic sampling of personal property tax rolls provided
ddresses for the urban sample.
The rural sample was drawn from fourteen counties which were selected at random. Within each
ounty a township was randomly selected. All townships contained less than eighteen square miles of
uninhabitable land. Elimination of townships which contained incorporated places of 2,500 or more
Insured that all households contacted in these areas would consist of rural residents.
Interviewers were asked to contact all heads of households. Most households were headed by males;
-female heads of the house were widows, single females and married women whose husbands were not
'available for interviewing. The wide dispersion in marital status of female headed households and the
loroblem of tracing female outmigrants who have married (therefore changing their name since leaving
:the state) led to the decision that the analysis of data be limited to data provided by male respondents.
1The urban North Dakota sample consisted of 238 male heads of households. The rural sample consisted
of 325 male household heads. The analysis in this paper is based on data provided by stable residents;
those Who have remained in their North Dakota community during the past five years. The stable
male sample consists of 202 urban residents and 311 rural residents.
Outmigrants were identified from two sources. Names andlorwarding addresses of migrants were
obtained from the personal property tax rolls for the 21 North Dakota sample areas. Additional names
and addresses were obtained by asking residents of the sample areas to provide the information for
household members and neighbors who had moved to other states during the 1962-1966 period.
Respondents who had left the state on a permanent basis were classified as out-of-state migrants.
7
Of the number of our-of-state migrants 123 males returned their questionnaire. Seventy-three were
from the states of Minnesota, Washington, California and Montana. Intw-viewers tried to contact non-
responding outmigrants in these four states, A total of 39 of the 74 male nonrespondents were interviewed.
Analysis of the relationship between social characteristics and mail-back response indicated statistically
significant differences in education, income, and occupational categories. So that the comparison be-
tween migrants and stables would not be biased by the effectiveness of the data gathering method it
was decided to include in the out-of-state migrants sample respondents who either returned their question-
naire form or were interviewed in the four states of Minnesota, Washington, California and Montana.
Initial planning for this survey was performed by personnel associated with Center for Research in
Vocational and Technical Education of the University of North Dakota/ The bulk of the study was
conducted under the direction of the senior author with the assistance of students employed in the
Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Coding and other data processing work was performed by
trained project assistants. The Bureau of Research, U.S. Office of Education of the Department of
Health, Education and Welfare provided almost all the support of this project.
Measurement of social and social psychological variables is primarily at an ordinal level. The
variables in which interval data are available are age (coded in tens of years), and number of organiza-
tional memberships (coded in terms of number of organizations). Income categories provide an ordinal
measure of annual family income; the incluson of the open-ended category (over $10,000) means that
we cannot treat this data as interval. Education is coded in terms of such levels of attainment as
completion of high school, enrollment in but not completion of a college program, and graduation
from college. Use of such categories provided an ordinal measure of education attainment.
Occupational rank (before the migration period and at present) is measured by placing individuals
in such general groupings as professional, semi-skilled and unskilled categories. These are then ordered
in terms of prestige. In consideration of problems of ranking, the farmer and farm manager category
were not included. Difficulty was found in placing these irro an ordinal measure with other categories.
Occupational mobility is measured by comparing the prestige of the occupation the individual held five
8
ears ago and his present occupation on the North-Hatt scale (Farmers are included in this measure).
If the individual's newer occupation is rated as higher in prestige the individual is included in the
"upwardly mobile" category; if the North-Hatt rank of his present position is the same as that of his
occupation of five years ago (before the migration period), he is included in the "same" category;
if his occupational prestige decreased in the past five years he is coded as "downward mobile".
Occupational aspiration is coded by comparing the North-Hatt rank of the occupation which the
respondent expects to enter in a few years with his present occupation. An expected change in
occupation which would involve an increase in North-Hatt score places the individual in the Upward.
category;the "NoChange" group includes those who expect to remain in the same occupation or move
into an occupation with the same North-Hatt ranking; those who expect to move to an occupation of
lower rank are included in the Downward category.
Community satisfaction indexes include twelve items, most of which were originally provided by
Vernon Davies.19 Eignt items express favorable characteristics of the community;Likert type categories
of strongly disagree, disagree, undecided, agree, and strongly agree were provided for the following:
a. Anything of a progressive nature is generally approved...
b. With a few exceptions the leaders are capable and ambitious...,
c. Persons with real ability are usually given recognition...
d. The climate is as good lny other place in the U.S
e. The high school teacher me equal to teachers anywhere..
F. The medical facilities are good and adequate...
g. Salaries are usually fair and adequate in the community...
h. Recreation facilities are abundant and varied...
Four items express unfavorable characteristics of the community;Likert-categories were provided
for response to the following:
a..lt is difficult for people to get together on anything...
b. A person has to leave the community in order to have a good time...
c. Employment opportunities are practically nonexistent...
d. People have to do without adequate shopping facilities...
19vernon Davies, "Development of a Scale to Rate Attitude of Community Satisfaction", Rural
Sociology 10, September 3, 1945, pp. 246-255.
9
Five measutes of anticipated social cost are included in this study. It was recognized that con-
siderations of problems in finding housing, finding a job, getting transportation, getting to know
friends and neighbors and making family adiustment may effect the decision to migrate. Such problems
are termed the "social cost" variable involved in the migration process. Individuals were asked to
indicate whether they thought they would have a hard time making the following adjustments if they
moved to another community: finding housing, finding a job, getting transportation, getting to
know friends and neighbors, and making family adjustmentsi
The statistical analysis in this report presents descriptive statistics involving percentages. Where
migration status (stable versus migrant) was cross-classified with a dichotomized variable the test of
significance between proportions was used. Where the dependent variable was ordinal in nature,
as in the case in the measures of community satisfaction, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample test
was used. In the few instances where the dependent variables were interval (age for example) the
t-test was used. These tests of significance are used to determine the extent to which it is possible
to generalize to the effect that true differences in the populations of stables and outmigrants from
North Dakota exist, based on data provided by 513 stable and 112 outmigrants presently living
in four states.
10
HYPOTHESES
The literature reviewed above yields a number of hypotheses wOch are tested. These hypotheses
are listed under headings according to the independent variables of etemographic characteristics,
socioeconomic factors and the social psychological variables of occupational aspiration, community satis-
'faction, ond anticipated social cost.
'Hypotheses including Demographic Characteristics:
1. It is expected that a greater proportion of migrants are single.
2. It is expected that migrants tend to be younger than stables.
3. Migrants are expected to have a higherdegree of educational attainment than stables.
Hypotheses including Soeio-economic Characteristics:
1. At the time preceding migration, -those who will migrate should be more represented in the
higher ranked occupational categories than those who will remain stables.
2. Migrants should presently occupy lifgher occupational statuses than those who remained in
their present community.
3. Migrants are expected to have higher incomes than stables.
4. Migrants should hold more organizational memberships than stables.
5. Migrants should experience a higher degreeof occupational mobility than stables.
Hypotheses Iniuding Social Psychological Voriablec
1, Oceupational Aspiration - It h expected that migrants aspire to higher ranked occupctions
to a greater extent than stables.
2.. Cornm_Linitr Satisfaction - The hypotheses indicate the expected relationship between migration
status and each of twelve items that measure satiskction toward a segment of the North Dakota
community. The following hypotheses support the proposition that migrants are less likely than
stables to agree with items which express a favorable attitude toward the community of
outmigration:
a. Migrants will less likely agree with the item that anything of a progressive nature
is general ly approved.
13, Migrants will less likely agree with the item that with a few exceptions the leaders
are capable and ambitious.
c. Migrants will less feel that persons with real ability are given recognition.
,
11
d. Migrants will less likely agree that the climate is as good as any other place in the U.S.
e. Migrants will less likely agree that the school teachers are equal to teachers anywhere.
f. Migrants will less likely feel that the medical facilities are good and adequate.
g. Migrants will less likely agree with the item that salaries are usually fair and adequate
in the North Dakota community.
Migrants will less likely agree with the items that Recreational facilities are abundant
and varied.
A number of items which express an unfavorable attitude towards the North Dakota community were,
included in this study. It is expected that migrants are more likely to agree with items which express
an unfavorable attitude towards the North Dakota community.
a. Migrants will more likely agree with the item it is difficult for people to get together
on anything.
b. Migrants will more likely agree with the item that a person has to leave the community
in order to have a good time.
c. Migrants will more likely agree with the item that people have to do without adequate
shopping facilities.
d. Migrants will more likely agree with the item that employment opportunities are practi
cally nonexistent.
Hypotheses Including Anticipated Social Cost
Migrants are less likely to anticipate difficulties in the migration process than are the stables:
1. Migrants will anticipate less trouble in the area of finding housing.
2. Migrants will anticipate less trouble in the area of finding a job.
3. Migrants will anticipate less trouble in the area of getting transportation.
4. Migrants will anticipate less trouble in the area of getting to know friends and neighbors.
5. Migrants will anticipate less trouble in the area of making family adjustments.
12
ANALYSISDemographic Variables and Migration
,1
In analyzing the relationship between Marital Status end Migration Behavior it was our hypothesis
that more migrants would be single than would those of the stable population. However, this hypo-
thesis was not supported. It appears, the reverse situation is true; for in our data a higher proportion
of migrants were married (see Table 1).
Table 1. Relationship Between Marital Status end Migration Category
SingleMarriedTotalNo data
Stables Migrants
97 19.1 12 10.9
411 80.9 98 89.1
508 100. 0 110 100.05 2
P-N.S. Using a one-tailed t-test of significance of difference between proportions.
Analysis of data relating age of stables and migrants indicate that migrants tend to be younger than
stable residents of North Dakota. The analysis indicated a mean age of 40.18 years for those who
moved from North Dakota and 46.02 years for the stables. The difference in means was statistically
significant at the .05 level. (see Table 2)
Table 2. Distribution of Age by Migration Category
Stables Migrants
10-19 2 .4 2 1.8
20-29 24 4.7 23 20.5
30-39 110 21.4 25 22.3
40-49 122 23.8 20 17.9
50-59 108 21.1 18 16.1
60-69 86 16.8 12 10.7
70-79 51 9.9 11 9.8
80-89 10 1.9 1 .9
Total 513 100.0 111 100.0
No data 0 1
X = 46.02 X = 40.18
P using a one-tailed t-test of significance of difference between means.
13
Table 3 compares the educational attainments of stables and migrants. The hypothesis was that
migrants would have a higher degree of educational attainment than the stables. When tested by a
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test our hypothesis was shown to be statistically significant. The greatest differ-
ence in the cumulative proportions include categories of those who have failed to attempt post high
school work of average kind_ More than 82% of the stables as compared to 60.3% of the migrants
were in these categories. Thus, the migrants consistently show a higher degree of educational
attainment than the stables.
Table 3. Distribution of Educational Attainment by Migration Category
Stables Migrants
Less than 8th grade 9.053 10.5 1
Eighth grade only 176 34.7 21 18.9Some high school 65 12.8 9 8.1
High school graduate 125 24.7 27 24.3High school + non-college 6 1.2 10 9.0Some college 47 9.3 7 6.3
, College graduate 24 4.7 18 16.2
Graduate work 8 1.6 4 3.6Graduate degree 3 .6 5 4.5Total 507 100.0 112 100.0No Data 6 0
P < .05 using the one-tailed Koimogorov-Smirnov test.
Comparison between the proportion of college graduates (including those who have taken post-
graduate courses) for the migrants (24.3%) and for the stables (6.9%) indicate that the proportion of
migrants who have attained ai least a four year degree is significantly greater than the proportion of
college graduates among the stables. The differences using the test of significance between proportion
was statistically significant.
Socioeconomic Variables and Migration
The hypothesis which expected most migrants would be more represented in higher ranked
occupational categories than stables at the time prior to migration was supported in the statistical
urr......euryte-ara
14
analysis, Largest differences exist in the cumulative proportions from the professional and the semi-
professional foremen categories. The cumulative percentages were 57.2% for the stables as compared
to 77% of the migrants, This difference was statistically signifkanf. It is evident that the migrants
have greater representation in the higher occupational categories, (See Table 4),
Table 4, Distribution of Occupational Category 5 years before Migration Period by Migration Category.*
Stables Migrants
N % N %
Professional & semi-professional 26
allIMIMP
10.4 19
OlD
21,8
Wholesale-retail business 15 6.0 9 10.4
Other proprietors, manager, official 24 9.5 7 8.1
Clerical and kindred 30 11,9 11 12,6
Skilled workers & foremen 49 19,4 21 24.1
Semi-skilled workers 32 12,7 9 10.4
UnsktIled and farm laborers 25 9,9 5 5.8
Retired, unemployed 51 20,2 6 6.9
Total 252 100.0 87 100.0
No Data 29 8
P < .05 using the Kolmogorov=Smirnav one-haled test
*Farmers and farm managers were not considered in this analysis. These categotles do not fit into an
ordinal measure of occupational status.
It was our hypothesis that the migrant would presently occupy higher ranked occupation
categories than the stables. This difference was supported by the statistical 'analysis. A relatively
high percentage of migrants were in the top three occupation categories professional and semi-
professional, wholesale and or retail business, and other proprietors, managers or officials. The
percentage of migrants in this was 50.6% while only 25.5% of the stables fit into these groups
(see Table 5).
15
Table 5. Distribution of Present Occupational Status by Migration Category
Stables Migrants
Professional & Semi-professional 28 10.1 22 26.5
Wholesale or retail business 17 6.1 6 7.2
Other proprietors, managers, officials 25 9,0 14 16.9
Clerical and kindred 30 10,8 7 8.4
Skilled workers and foremen 49 17,7 14 16.9
Semi-skilled workers 32 11,6 6 7.2
Unskilled workers 18 6,5 2 2.4
Retired, unemployed 78 28.2 12 14.5
Total 277 10060 83 100.0
No Data 21 25
P -<;05 using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov one-tailed test
*Farmers and farm managers are not included in this analysis.
It was our expectation that migrants would have a higher income level than that of the stables.
Tiiis hypothesis was supported by the data. While 64.0% of the stables earned less than $6,000, only
40.6% of the migrants had incomes in this range. This difference was statistically significant and
shows that a higher percentage of migrants are in the higher income levels (see Table 6).
Table 6. Distribution of Present Annual Income by Migration Category
Stables Migrants
$1500 and less 55 11,9 0.0
1501-3000 69 15.0 5 5.2
3001-4500 79 17,1 8 8.3
4501-6000 92 20.0 9 9.4
6001-7500 59 12,8 17 17.7
7501-9000 49 10p6 16 16.7
9001-10,500 22 4,8 9 9.4
10,501-12,000 14 '3,0 13 13.5
Above 12,000 22 4,8 19 19.8
Total 461 10060 96 100.0
No Data 52 16
p 4<,,05 using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov one-tailed test.
16
Data on the variable of "number of organizational membership" fail to support the hypothesis
that migrants would have a higher number of organizational membershipthan those of the stable
population. Using the t-test the difference between the stables and migrants was found not to be
significant. (See Table 7).
Table 7. Distribution of Number of Organizational Membership by Migration Category
None1
2
567Total
Stables LI) 2.ants
N. N %
87 17.0 37 33.1
217 42.3 26 23.2120 23.4 20 17.9
61 11.9 14 12.5
21 40 12 10.73 .6 1 .93 .6 2 1.81 .2 0 0.0
513 100.0 112 100.0
P-N.S. using a one-tailed t-test for the significance of the difference between means.
The hypothesis that migrants would be more occupationally mobile than stables was supported.
The migrants were more mobile both upward and downward than stables. Of the stables only
7.2% had evidenced some change in prestige score as compared to 43% of the migrants (see Table 8).
Table 8. Distribution of Occupational Mobility by Migration Categary
Stables Migrants
Downward 14 3.5 12 16.7
None 375 92.8 41 56.9
Upward 15 3.7 19 26.4
Total 404 100.0 72 100.0
No data 109 40
P -<.05 using tests of significance between proportions.
In breaking this total change down, we find first of all that 3.5% of the stables experienced
downward occup"ational,Mqbilify:as:compcifed. to:I6% DE the.rmidrants .This difference of 12.5%
17
was statistically significant. In the upwardly mobile category the difference involving 3.7% of
the stables as compared to 26.4% of the migrants was also statistically significant.
Social Psychological Variables ond MigrationOccupational Aspiration
It was our hypothesis that migrants would have higher levels of occupational aspiration than
stables. This was supported by analysis when we found that 25.03o of the migrants were upwardly
mobile as compared to only 2.3% of the stables. This difference was statistically significant (see
Table 9)
Table 9, Distribution of Occupational Aspiration by Migration Category,
P < .05 using tests of significance between proportions
Items were not applicable if the individual was not in the labor force at present or failed to indicatethat he expected to be in an occupation in the future.
Community Satisfaction
In the investigation of differences between stables and migrants with respect to satisfaction with
the North Dakota community, it was expected that migrants would be less likely to agree with the
item "anything of a progressive nature is generally approved". The expected relationship was borne
out. While 76.1% of the stables agreed or strongly agreed with this statement, 61.90k of the migrants
checked these two categories. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used in testing the significance
of the maximum difference between the cumulative proportions. This difference was statistically
significant (see Table 10).
18
Table 10. Distribution of Responses to the Item, "Anyihing of a Progressive Nature is Generally
Approved" by Migration Category.
Stables Migrants
Strongly disagree 9 1.8 5 4.8
Disagree 47 9.5 23 21.9
Undecided 62 12.6 12 11.4
Agree 317 64.3 56 53.3
Strongly agree 58 11.8 9 8.6
Total 493 100.0 105 100.0
No response 20 7
P < .05 using the Kolmogorov-Srnimov one-tailed-fest.
Response to the item "with a few exceptions the leaders are capable and ambitious" failed
to support the hypothesis that migrants would rank the North Dakota community as less satisfactory.
The difference in cumulative proportions was small with the largest difference existing in the
IIagree" category. This difference was not statistically significant.
Table 11. Distribution of Responses to the item, "With a Few Exceptions the Leaders are Capable and
Ambitious" by Migration Category,
Stables Migrants
.......
Strongly disagree 8 1.6 1 1.0
Disagree 44 8.9 11 10.7
Undecided 64 13.0 12 11.7
Agree 345 69.8 68 66.0
Strongly agree 33 6.7 11 10.7
Total 494 100.0 103 100.0
No response 19 9
P-N.S. using the Kolmogorov=Smirnov one-tciiled test.
Analysis of response to the item "persons with real ability are usually given recognition"
support the expectation that migrants are less satisfied with the North Dakota community (see
Table 12). While 78.6 percent of stables either agreed or strongly agreed with this statement,
61.9% of the migrants selected either of these two categories. The maximum difference in
c:umulative proportion for the two samples is statistically significant.
19
Table 12. Distribution of Responses to the Item: "Persons with Real Ability are Usually GivenRecognition" by Migration Category
ProgressLeadershipRecognition of AbilityClimateTeachersMedical FacilitiesSalariesRecreationCooperationEntertainmentShopping FacilitiesEmployment Opportunities
Anticipated Social CostFinding housingFinding a jobGetting transportationGetting to know friends and neighbrsMaking family adjustments
)*N . S .
)*-)*
N . S .
(-(-N . S
N.S.N .S .
N S .
N .5
(- )*N . S .
N . S .
)*
*Statistically significant at the .05 level.
28
The set of community satisfaction variables include items which express a favorable orien-
tation toward the North Dakota community as well as a number of items which are phrased to in-
dicate unfavorable feelings toward the community. It was expected that migrants indicate less
agreement with items which express favorable characteristics and more agreement with unfavor-
able statements. Among the significant relationships reported in this phase of the analysis
include differences in attitudes toward the extent to which progress is approved, the feeling that
persons with real ability are usually given recognition and satisfaction with the North Dakota
climate. Migrants were less likely than stables to feel that medical facilities are good and
adequate. Migrants were less favorably orientated to the salary scale in the North Dakota
community than stables.
Analysis of data provided by stables and in and out-migrants from North Dakota fail to support
the expectation that migrants are more likely to agree with those items which express unfavorable
characteristics of the community. A possible reason why these items failed to discriminate between
migrants and stables might be the difficulty of interpreting in responding to negatively phrased
statements. A number of interviewers indicated to one of the authors that some respondents
expressed difficulty in that they didn't understand the negatively worded items which the subject
considered in the statement, for example "adequate shopping facilities".
Concluding the discussion of the relationship between community satisfaction and migration
behavior considering all community satisfaction items it is evident that migrants are less satisfied
with a number of attributes of their home community than those who have remained in their North
Dakota community. This provided some support for the general hypothesis that migrants are likely
to be less satisfied with their sending community than the stables. However, the authors feel thct
future research can be guided by the findings that the adequacy of specific community charactefl
may be more important than others as determinants of migration than others. Future research in
ing this relationship can be directed toward replication of this research in other areas as well or
gathering data which would follow-up the experience of those who are now stables in North Dckol
in order to see the extent to which the satisfaction with specific community characteristics are
29
associated with actual migration behavior after the data is gathered.
Another set of characteristics which supposedly differentiates between the migrant and the
stable resident involve the measures of anticipated social cost. Three of the five measures
were associated with migration status. Migrants were less likely to feel that they would have
trouble finding housing if they moved to another community. In addition, the migrants
felt that they would have less trouble finding a job and making family adjustments than did the
stables. The other differences were not statistically significant.
30
CONCLUSION
The findings of this study (end further support to most of the hypotheses which were based on
presently available research literature. Thus it was found that out-of-state migrants differ from stables
living in the sender community in that they tend to be younger, better educated, of higher ranked
occupational categories (for the non-farm population). It is more likely that migrants will
experience occupational mobility than stables. The hypothesis that occupational aspiration is
higher among migrants is supported by a statistical test. Furthermore the general hypothesis that
community satisfaction is negatively associated with migration behavior receives some support in
that differences in response to six of the twelve items were statistically significant. Finally, of
the five items used as indexes of anticipated social cost, responses to three were associated
significantly with migration status.
Several important implications of this study should be noted as guides to future research in the
area of migration. Further research is indicated in consideration of relationship between the
marital status and migration status. It appears that the shortage of females in a rural area as
compared to an excess in the urban community may accountfor the fact that a higher proportion
of migrants are married. The findings relative to community satisfaction and migration imply that
future research should be conducted on the specific dimensions of community satisfaction, i.e.
satisfaction with schools, churches, the economic institutions, etc to examine how rating of
the sender community in these areas play a part in the decision to migrate. In addition further
analysis of the relationship between anticipated social cost and migration research should focus
on the specific problem areas in which the individual's concern for adjustment may effect migration
behavior.
This study has focused on the interrelationships between demographic, socioeconomic and
social psychological variable.s and migration status. Discussion of the statistical analysis has
focused on the extent to which male stables and migrants may be differentiated according to our
variables. The authors have avoided the labeling of variables as "independent" and "dependent",
i.e., little or no reference is made to casual sequences in the hypotheses, analysis and
31
discussion of the results. The avoidance of inferring cause-effect relationships is due to the
cross-sectional nature of the study. Accordingly, The authors recommend a longitudinal study
of those respondents who ere presently in the "Stable-sample". Measurement of aspirations,
satisfactions and anticipated social cost variables which were made in 1966-67 would be associ-
ated with subsequent migration behavior of those individuals. The result of this procedure would
be the placement of social psychological indexes as being antecedent to the dependent variable
of migration.
Although it is not possible to assign cause and effect labels ta variables, implications
from this study have some practical Importance which should be of interest to policy-makers
at the national, state, and local levels, particularly in rural areas which are suffering from
population decline. The importance. af the migration behavior in the overall process of
occupational achievement is evidenced by significant relationships between migration status
and occupational status, income, occupational mobility, and satisfaction with salary scales
in the community. It appears that improvement of occupational opportunities through
industrial expansion may be used to enable a community to retain its population. Improvement
in a number of areas would also assist in helping the community to stop population loss. The
upgrading of salaries at the local level might help in the retention of the community's
population. The development of better educational facilities mtght give the community an
asset when it attempts to attract Industry.
From the point of view of the individual it is apparent that the migrant has been more
successful in achieving a position of high occupational status than his stable counterpart.
In comparison with those who remained in the North Dakota community it appears that the
migrant is in a position of relative advantage. Yet the migrant from a wed area lags behind
the native of a receiver community in occupation, housing, and in other areas. (20)
-4.'Sjaastad, Larry, "Occupational Structure- and Migration Patterns." Center for Agricul-
tura! and Economic Adjustment, tabor Mobility and Population in Agriculture, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, 1961. Also J. Allan Beegle, "Sociological Aspects of Changes inFarm Labor Force," Labor Mobility ancitioninAdoJkuree ed. Earl 0. Heady, Ames,Iowa: State University Press, 1961.
32
Improved education in academic and vocation programs and better counseling might help the
individual in making his adjustment to the new community.
It is recommended that more emphasis be placed on the providing of vocational education
programs in rural areas. Analysis of educational and occupational attainment of migrants leads
the authors to this recommendation. Preparing the outmigrant for occupations provided by his po-
tentiad receiver community would enhance his future occupational success. Failure for the rural
community and state to do this might lead to a failure of the migrant. to make satisfactory
adjustment in the receiver community. Furthermore if this failure is experienced by the out-
migrant it is possible that he might return to his sender community as a burden on its financial
resources. Thus the sender community in its own self-interest should provide improved
vocational education programs.
A second consideration faced by the loco! community is the importance of industrial devel-
opment should the community wish to retain its population. Analysis of conditions for migration
has emphasized the importance of occupationally related reasons for migration. Industrial
development in a rural area would enable the community and the state to retain more of its
population. However industrial development requires a well trained labor force. Before
induitry can be attracted it must be convinced there is a labor force which have the skills
required by the industry. Thus vocational education programs can be seen as a means to be
used in attracting the industry necessary to provide the basis for meeting the aspirations and
desires of the person who would otherwise leave the community or state.
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