14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa 1
... of energy efficiency
14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa
Energy savings Climate Change
Sustainability
EE policy
2
14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa
Climate Change
Sustainability
3
Energy savings
EE policy
14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa 4
Climate Change
Sustainability
Air pollu8on
health poverty
resources
economy labour market
energy system security
COM EED IA
June 2017 1
The macro-level and sectoral impacts of Energy Efficiency
policies
Final report
Energy savings
14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa 5
Energy savings Climate Change
Sustainability
Air pollu8on
health poverty
resources
economy labour market
energy system security
2017
2017
Forward-‐looking: 2030 Based on EEI ac8ons (boJom-‐up) EE beyond exis8ng policies
ex-‐post analysis top-‐down/boJom-‐up assessment of current policies
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649724. This document reflects only the author's view. The Agency is not responsible for any information it contains.
Effects of energy efficiency More than energy and greenhouse gas savings
Johannes Thema
14 November 2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training Workshop, Lisbon
[Use your partner] [ logo here ]
www.combi-project.eu
Traditional cost-benefit analysis Example: CBA of total values
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
M€
yr
Investment
Energy cost savings
Traditional cost-benefit analysis Example: CBA of total values
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
M€
yr
Investment
Energy cost savings
Cumulated energy cost savings
discoun8ng of life8me-‐savings
Total cost/benefit comparison
Cost-benefit analysis of Energy Efficiency
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Source: Ecofys/WI 2014, Climateworks
Source: ACEEE 2014
Expanded Cost-benefit analysis CBA including Multiple Impacts of Energy Efficiency
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
M€
yr
Investment
Energy cost savings
Cumulated energy cost savings
Multiple Impacts
Cumulated MIs
discoun8ng
Total cost/benefit comparison
Cost-benefit analysis of Energy Efficiency
§ Inclusion of other („multiple“) impacts- à COMBI project
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Source: Ecofys/WI 2014
Source: ACEEE 2014
Project background & objectives Quantification of multiple impacts of EE
Coordinator
- Funded by EU Horizon 2020 EE12 (GA 649724, approx 1M€)
§ March 2015 – May 2018
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Air pollution health eco-system crops
Resources abiotic energy biotic energy abiotic non-energy biotic non-energy
Social welfare disposable income health productivity
Macro economy employment/ GDP public budget Fossil fuel/ETS prices Terms of Trade
Energy system energy system costs energy security
Methodology
Macro impacts IO/GE modelling (Copenhagen Economics) • employment effects/GDP • public budget • Price effects: EU-ETS,
global fossil fuels • TOT & structural change
Social welfare Socio-economic modelling (University of Manchester, ABUD) • disposable income • health
Pollution Socio-economic/ environm. models (GAINS) (University of Manchester) • health • eco-systems, crops
Resources MIPS (Material Input Per Service unit) (Wuppertal Institut) • abiotic energy • biotic energy • abiotic non-energy • biotic non-energy
Energy system & security LEAP tool (University of Antwerp) • energy security
indicators • avoided energy system
costs
PROJECT DATABASE: Costs, savings, potentials, impacts (physical, monetary) Consolidated project database by EEI action and EU country (University of Antwerp)
Online-tool: Customisable decision-support framework Customisable graphical data analysis tool with data export option (Wuppertal Institut/Web agency)
Costs, savings, potentials by 2030 Stock model: reference & EE scenario until 2030 (University of Antwerp) per action & country: • technology costs • energy savings • potentials • additional background data
Application: Interpretation of project results, implications Discussion of project results by country and benefit, policy recommendations (Wuppertal Institut)
Synthesis methodology for aggregation of benefits (ABUD)
Basis: • 21 technical EE improvement actions • Geographic scope: EU28 (by countries) • Sectors: industry, transport, buildings
8000
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10000
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2015 2030
TWh/a
PRIMES 2007 BAS
PRIMES 2016 BAS
EUCO27
EUCO30
EUCO+33
EUCO+35
EUCO+40
COMBI REF
COMBI EE
8000
9000
10000
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2015 2030
TWh/a
PRIMES 2007 BAS
PRIMES 2016 BAS
EUCO27
EUCO30
EUCO+33
EUCO+35
EUCO+40
8000
9000
10000
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2015 2030
TWh/a
PRIMES 2007 BAS
PRIMES 2016 BAS
EUCO27
EUCO30
EUCO+33
EUCO+35
EUCO+40
COMBI REF
COMBI EE
Comparison of COMBI and EED IA (PRIMES 2016) scenarios Graphical analysis
more recent statistics COMBI: conservative (ambitious baseline)
excl. agric, industry raw ambition ≈EUCO+33
-27% à EUCO27
The goal: a more complete picture COMBI online tool
14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa
WP Benefit Category
# Impact end-point Units Physical primary unit
Physical (for aggregation)
Monetary (yes/no)
3" Air"pollution" 1" Human"health" YLL"(possibly"DALY?)" DALY?" yes"
" " 2" Eco>systems:"acidification" %"change"in"area"affected"by"excess"acidification" no"aggregation?,"final"EP?"
no"
" " 3" Eco>systems:"eutrophication" %"change"in"area"affected"by"eutrophication" no"aggregation?,"final"EP?"
no"
" " 4" Eco>systems:"ozone"exp." %"change"in"area"affected"by"ground>level"ozone"exposure" no"aggregation?,"final"EP?"
no"
" " 5" Eco>systems:"crop"loss" %"change"in"area"affected"by"crop"losses,"t"of"crop"loss" km2?" yes"
" " 6" Air"pollution:"emissions"(mid>points)" t" " no"
4" Resources" 7" Fossil"Fuels" tons" " yes(part"of"energy"costs)"
" " 8" Metal"Ores" tons" " yes"(part"of"energy"costs?)"
" " 9" Minerals" tons" " no"
" " 10" Abiotic"raw"materials"(sum"of"above)" tons" " no"
" " 11" Biotic"raw"materials" tons" " no"
" " 12" Material"Footprint"(sum"abiotic"&"biotic"&"unused)" tons" " no"
" " 13" Direct"carbon"emissions" tons"of"CO2"equivalents"(GWP"100a)" no"(yes:"ranges/IPCC)"
" " 14" Carbon"Footprint"(GWP,"lifecycle"emissions"incl."direct"emissions)"
tons"of"CO2"equivalents"(GWP"100a)" no"(yes:"ranges/IPCC)"
5" Social"welfare" 15" Excess"winter"mortality"attributable"to"inadequate"housing"
Number"of"deaths"avoided"due"to"improved"building"ventilation"(morbidity"expert"judgement)"
DALY?"together"with"below" yes"
" " 16" Excess"winter"morbidity"attributable"to"inadequate"housing"
YLL,"DALY?" DALY?"together"with"above" yes"
" " 17" Asthma"due"to"indoor"dampness" DALY,"YLL" DALY?" yes"
" " 18" Energy"cost"savings/available"income"effect"(WP2?)" €"(perspective!)" " yes"
" " 19" Productivity"impact"through"health"(asthma,"allergy,"cardiovascular"disease,"cold"and"flu)""
Number"of"days"suffered"due"to"these"diseases" active"days,"(DALY"for"health)"
yes"
" " 20" Active"time"loss" Labour"input"and"travel"time"saved"per"hour" active"days" yes"
" " 21" Workforce"productivity"" Labour"input"per"hour" active"days"(probably)" yes"
6" Macro>economy"
22" Temporary"(business>cycle)"employment/GDP"effects" Number"of"job"years" " yes"(GDP)"
" " 23" Temporary"(business>cycle)"public"budget"effects" %"of"budget"or"GDP" " yes"(public"budget)"
" " 24" Fossil"fuel"price"effects"" €/MWh,"%"change" " yes"(no"aggr.)"
" " 25" ETS"price"effect" €/tCO2" " yes"(no"aggr.)"
" " 26" Terms"of"Trade"effect" TOT"index"change" " yes"(no"aggr.)"
" " 27" Sectoral"shifts" %"change" " yes"(no"aggr.)"
7" Energy"system"&"security"
28" Energy"import"dependency" Monetary"share"spent"on"importing"energy" yes"(part"of"energy"costs)"
" " 29" Import"dependence"and"diversity"(incl."geopolitical"risks)" Herfindahl>Hirschman"index"HHI" no"
" " 30" Energy"intensity" ktoe/1000€" " no"
" " 31" Derated"capacity"margin" Share"(%)" " no"
20+ physical MI end-points (physical/monetary unit)
to 10+ impacts (phys./monetary)
€ monetization
λΣieΨαx
CBA selection (no double-counting)
pre-aggregation quantification
conversion to € (where possible)
aggregation Cost-benefit analysis
C-‐S-‐IM
(C-‐S-‐IM)/E
BCRs
CBA calculations (life-time, annualised, MACC)
All outputs accessible graphically via online tool • data export option• by EEI action (/sector)• by EU country• by impact type
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COMBI online tool (under development) Display of physical & monetary impacts
14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa 16 values not finalised, only graphical representa8on
COMBI online tool Cost-Benefit Analysis
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COMBI online tool (PT case) Dynamic MAC curves excl./incl. multiple impacts
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COMBI take-away Overview on Multiple Impacts of EE in Europe 2030
Analyse potentials of EE improvement (EEI) in Europe: Energy savings, GHG emissions and multiple impacts (MIs) § Country comparisons § Sector comparisons § EEI action comparisons § If monetized: size of impacts § Net value of EEI actions with/without selected MIs - also in ralation to savings potential (energy, GHG) à MACC - Values: life-time, annualised, levelized - Sensitivity analysis: energy prices, discount rates, impact selection
§ Check physical & monetized values and effect on Cost-Benefit Analysis § Concise report on effects & policy conclusions
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649724. This document reflects only the author's view. The Agency is not responsible for any information it contains.
Thank you Johannes Thema [email protected] Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Research Group Energy, Climate and Transport Policy
FOLLOW US! Websites http://combi-project.eu www.wupperinst.org On Twitter @COMBI_project @wupperinst
: subscribe at http://combi-project.eu
Impacts quantified Pre-aggregated impacts
à total: 35+ impact end-points (annex)
COMBI energy efficiency improvement (EEI) List of 21 EEI actions
Buildings (residential & tertiary) Transport Industry
Difference to PRIMES/EED-IA: • not complete energy system (excl. agric., only selected EEI actions, excl. supply sector)• disaggregated stock analysis model à bottom-up funding of scenarios
Buildings (residential & tertiary) Transport Industry
Actions 1 (residential) and 5 (non-residential): refurbishment of building shell + replacement of building systems (space heating, cooling and ventilation)
Actions 2 (residential) and 6 (non-residential): energy efficiency improvements of new dwellings or buildings, focusing on Passive House standards;
Actions 3 (residential) and 7 (non-residential): energy efficiency improvements for lighting systems;
Actions 4 (residential) and 8 (non-residential): energy efficiency improvements of cold appliances (residential) or product cooling (non-residential).
Actions 9 and 12: modal shifts for both passenger and freight transport;
Action 10: energy efficiency improvements of motorized two-wheelers;
Action 11: energy efficiency improvements of passenger cars;
Action 13: energy efficiency improvements of public road transport, i.e. bus or coach;
Action 14: efficiency improvements of light duty trucks (LDTs);
Action 15: efficiency improvements of heavy duty trucks (HDTs).
Action 16: energy efficiency improvements of high temperature process heating (furnaces, ovens, kilns, dryers, …)
Action 17: energy efficiency improvements of low and medium temperature process heating (boilers and steam systems in general);
Action 18: energy efficiency improvements of industrial process cooling and refrigeration;
Action 19: energy efficiency improvements of process specific use of electricity, mainly electrochemical processes in non ferrous metals and chemicals;
Action 20: energy efficiency improvements of motor drive systems, including pumps, compressed air for utilities, compressed gas/air systems for processes; fans and blowers, and other motor applications;
Action 21: energy efficiency improvements of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in industrial buildings.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649724. This document reflects only the author's view. The Agency is not responsible for any information it contains.
Air pollution, public health and social welfare co-benefits of energy efficiency investments
Nora Mzavanadze ODYSSEE-‐MURE Regional Training on Energy Efficiency November 14, 2017 Lisbon, Portugal
From doomsday and unbearable cost rhetoric to multi-solving rhetoric § Documenting impact pathways of co-benefits or co-impacts - A re-cycled name to a positive externality? - Systems view
§ State of research - Transport - Housing
§ Human health co-benefits dominate social CBAs § Towards re-assessment of drivers for energy efficiency
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Energy efficiency in (residential) buildings
Change in physical features of buildings
Change in energy demand
Change in psycho-social aspects of
housing
• GHG emissions
• Air pollution emissions
• Indoor cold • Indoor dampness • Indoor air exchange • Indoor air pollution • Noise • Toxic substances
• Indoor comfort
• Utility bills
Human health + ecosystems +built environment impacts
Impact pathways: determinants of health that are subject to change under residential housing retrofit (1)
- Indoor cold• Excess winter morbidity and mortality• Exposure: 9.4% of EU-28 population was unable to keep their homes
adequately warm; 9.1% had arrears on utility bills (EU SILC 2015)• Portugal – 23.8% (EU SILC 2015)
- Indoor dampness and mould growth• Asthma• Exposure: 15.2% of EU-28 population live in housing with a leaking roof,
damp walls, floors or foundation, or rot in window frames of floor (EU SILC2015)• Portugal – 28.1% (EU SILC 2015)
- Exposure to housing-related hazards (lead, asbestos, radon)• Cancer, cognitive impairment• Exposure: good coverage for radon, not for asbestos and lead
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Impact pathways: determinants of health that are subject to change under residential housing retrofit (2)
- Outdoor air pollution • Cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, lung cancer • Exposure: 82% of EUs urban population live in areas that exceed WHO
health norms for PM2.5; 53% for PM10 and 95% for O3 in 2015 (EEA “Air quality in Europe — 2017 report”)
- Indoor air exchange and pollution (allergens, outdoor and indoor air pollutants, biological pathogens) • Allergies, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases related to air pollution,
airborne contagious diseases • Exposure: some data
- Noise exposure • Cardiovascular diseases, cognitive impairment • Exposure: 125 million people affected by noise levels greater than 55
decibels (dB) Lden (day-evening-night level) (EEA “Noise in Europe 2014” report)
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Methodological approach
Air pollution modeling: GAINS model by IIASA
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Social welfare and public health modeling: WHO Burden of Disease approach
First results: public health (1)
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EXCESS COLD WEATHER MORTALITY
Physical value (EU-28) Monetary value (EU-28)*
Baseline 71 351 excess cold weather deaths attributable to indoor cold in 2015
6.828 billion EUR
Reference scenario 22 054 avoided deaths in 2030 ~ 31%
1.975 billion EUR
Efficiency scenario 27 979 avoided deaths in 2030 ~39%
2.550 billion EUR
Difference 5 925 avoided deaths in 2030 0.575 billion EUR
*Monetary value of 1 avoided death = 1 VOLY customized for each country based on standard VSL value, economic adjustments and life expectancy. VSL (average EU-28, 2011) = 3.37 million EUR (Source: Mortality risk valuation in environment, health, and transport policies. Paris: OECD; 2012.)
Not finalized: do not cite!
06.07.2015 30 Not finalized: do not cite!
First results: public health (2)
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ASTHMA Physical value (EU-28), DALYs Monetary value (EU-28)*
Baseline 2015 71 652 8.751 billion EUR
Reference scenario 2030 20 288 avoided DALYs ~ 28%
2.352 billion EUR
Efficiency scenario 2030 24 833 avoided DALYs ~35%
2.919 billion EUR
Difference 4 545 avoided DALYs
0.567 billion EUR
*Monetary value of 1 avoided asthma DALY = 1 VOLY customized for each country based on standard VSL value, economic adjustments and life expectancy. VSL (average EU-28, 2011) = 3.37 million EUR (Source: Mortality risk valuation in environment, health, and transport policies. Paris: OECD; 2012.) Not finalized: do not cite!
06.07.2015 32 Not finalized: do not cite!
First results: air pollution co-benefits in Germany
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TOTAL EMISSIONS SO 2, kt NO x, kt PM 2.5, kt
PM 10, kt VOC, kt
Baseline 2015 371.3 1198.1 112.4 190.7 987.6
Reference scenario 2030
315.4 770.6 82.9 159.0 849.0
Efficiency scenario 2030
296.5 763.5 78.3 152.6 831.9
Difference 18.9 7.1 4.6 6.4 17.1
Not finalized: do not cite!
First results: air pollution co-benefits in Germany
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AIR QUALITY Mean PM 2.5 concentration, ug/m3
SOMO35, ppb days
Baseline 2015 9.8 2 559
Reference scenario 2030 7.9 2 068
Efficiency scenario 2030 7.7 2 061
Difference 0.2
7
Not finalized: do not cite!
First results: air pollution co-benefits in Germany
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HUMAN HEALTH
Premature deaths due to PM 2.5
exposure, deaths
Premature deaths due to O3 exposure,
deaths
Years of life lost (YOLL), mln
Baseline 2015 48 068 3 278 40.2
Reference scenario 2030
38 800 2 649 32.4
Efficiency scenario 2030
37 956 2 641 31.7
Difference 844 avoided deaths 8 avoided deaths 0.7
Not finalized: do not cite!
Thank you! Nora Mzavanadze Collaboratory for Urban Resilience and Energy (CURE) [email protected]
06.07.2015 36
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Subscribe to COMBI newsleJer at hJp://combi-‐project.eu
COMBI research project: Calculating and Operationalising the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency in Europe