Dealing With A Future Which Is in Perpetual Construction---Washington State Provisional Projection by Age, Sex And Race/Ethnicity:
2000-2030
Office of Financial ManagementWashington State
March 30, 2005
Introduction Philosophy: Maximize knowledge and
minimize subjective bias Projection categories: OMB new
race/ethnicity categories, gender, five year age groups, and single year between 15-19.
Method: cohort component method with all the components being projected separately
Base year data: NCHS 2000 estimates Control totals: each component is controlled
to the state total
Main Steps for Projection Procedure for State Population by Age, Gender and Race/Ethnicity
Major Data Input:Births 95-2000Deaths 95-2000Migration 95-2000
Fertility assumptionsMortality assumptionsMigration assumptions
Calculate ASFR, TFRCalculate Mortality ratesCalculate migration rates
Projecting births, deaths and migration: 2000-2030
Control projected births, deaths and migration to state totals, then add all the components into the master file
Produce pyramid for Evaluation; make adjustment if necessary
Project multiracial category
Project Non HispanicAnd Hispanic population
Project 15-19 single yearGender, Non Hispanic/Hispanic
Final report
Adjust Black Population in NCHS 2000 Estimates
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
-
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
MR NCHS OFM Increase by NCHS Increase by OFM
Fertility Assumptions: Before and Current
Prior to the current projection: Assume 95-2000 ASFR for 2000-05 period Use 2000-05 Women 15-49 and 0-4 year old to
recalculate ASFR to be used for 2005-10 period, and so on.
Then control to state projected total births for the period.
Concerns: Only the fertility assumptions for the total women at child bearing age are reflected. We assume that the fertility pattern for each one of the minority groups is likely to change in the future. Such variance in different race groups are not reflected in the method.
Current Fertility Assumptions
The ASFR for 2000 is calculated with the existing method;Child-women ratio is the second method;Census Bureau's national fertility projection has been incorporated to develop adjustment factors.United Nations fertility data for Southeast Asian and Mexico are used to assess the fertility rates for Hispanics and API. Assimilation theory is adopted to bring down the high fertility rate of Hispanic origin population.
TFR by Race/Ethnicity
Total White Black Am. Ind API Hispanic2000 1.95 1.95 1.91 2.14 1.91 2.322005 1.98 1.98 1.92 2.12 1.90 2.292010 1.97 1.98 1.93 2.10 1.90 2.252015 2.00 1.97 1.93 2.07 1.90 2.232020 2.00 2.01 1.94 2.05 1.90 2.132025 2.00 2.01 1.95 2.05 1.90 2.132030 2.00 2.02 1.95 1.98 1.90 2.10
Migration: Assumptions and Methods
Total migration by race: Migration is controlled to the state total projected
migration, so the crucial issue is to get the racial distribution right
1990-2000 residual migration is calculated with standard survival rate method.
Age and gender distribution: The 1995-2000 in and out migration are used to get
base for international migration as well as the age and gender distribution among each race.
School enrolment (grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t+1) between 1981-2003 by race is used as an indicator for future migration change.
Change of School Enrolment Grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t+1
Asian
250500750
100012501500175020002250
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Change of School Enrolment Grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t+1
Hispanic
-500-250
250500750
1000125015001750
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Migration: Assumptions and Methods
For the long term: domestic and international migrations are projected separately; immigration assumptions are built based on Bureau’s 1999 immigration framework. Washington State foreign born, and 1980-2000 immigration information from INS are also used as indicators.
Domestic migration is derived as residual of total and international migration. Age, sex and race distribution shall be based on 95-2000 migration from census 2000.
Total migration is controlled to the state total migration projection.
Mortality Assumption
Washington mortality by race follows the national trend. NCHS 2000 life tables for white, black and other race are used for 2000-2010. After 2010, the gain in life expectancy will gradually slow down. No sufficient information to distinguish the change by racial groups, the trend for total population by gender is adopted.Robert Schoen Basic Life Table method is used to calculate life expectancy of Hispanic origin population.
Extract the Multiracial Population
Difference between 2000 MR and adjusted NCHS 2000 estimate is controlled to the Multiracial population in 2000 MR file.Project 0-4 year old multiracial based on 1990 and 2000 under one year old in multiracial families. Add the projected 0-4 to each projection period and forward surviving the rest of the age groups.Raking to the state level total multiracial population which is projected separately.
Separate the Hispanic and Non Hispanic
1. Use projected Hispanic births as base2. Use CWR to estimate 0-4 year old migrants by
race/ethnicity, and percent of total migration is calculated to project future migration of the age cohort .
3. Applied survival rate to (1+2) =projected 0-4 Hispanic
4. Survive Hispanic by age and gender to the next projection period and add (3) for 0-4 year old.
5. Subtract Hispanic from total to get Non Hispanic
Washington State Population Change By Race/Ethnicity (in Thousand):
RACE ETHNICITY
TOTAL White Black AIAN API Two + Hispanic Origin
2000 5,894.1 5,081.7 199.2 96.9 355.8 160.5 441.5 2010 6,649.8 5,633.3 227.9 115.2 451.3 222.0 626.3 2020 7,547.3 6,302.4 257.0 136.8 543.1 308.0 851.8 2030 8,379.5 6,900.2 283.2 156.6 620.0 419.5 1,107.6
Percent Change per Every Five Year Interval:2010 12.82 10.85 14.41 18.87 26.85 38.35 41.872020 13.50 11.88 12.78 18.73 20.32 38.71 36.002030 11.03 9.49 10.20 14.47 14.16 36.21 30.03
Growth 2000-20302,485.4 1,818.5 84.1 59.7 264.2 259.0 666.1
42.17 35.79 42.21 61.55 74.24 161.40 150.86
Data and documentation can be found at the following URL:
http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/race/provisional_projections.htm
