Predicting the FutureBig Data, Predictive Analytics, Artificial Intelligence

SPEAKER: Rich Swier, Co-Founder offrs.com

The Future of Real Estate Learning Lab Series

Rich Swier

What is Predictive Analytics?

COLLECT & ANALYZE DATA

(hindsight)

IDENTIFY PATTERNS

(insight)

MAKE PREDICTIONS

(foresight)

How can we predict the future?● Big Data

○ Starts with Data (Historical showing trends, Profile, Behavioral)

● Algorithms

○ Algorithms are developed to model predictions

● Validation

○ Predictions are matched against actual events to verify

….. RINSE AND REPEAT

What type of Data?● Property Data

○ Sales Details, Property, Location, Demographics, Similar Properties

● Consumer Data

○ Demographics, Financial, Life Events

● Behavioral

○ Activities on Internet, Response to Marketing, 3rd Party Validation

Example of Homeowner

Number of Years Owned

Market Value Open Loans

Bedrooms Size Location

Similar Inventory Current Listings

Age Married

Kids Age Financials

Investor Occupation

Loan Type Credit

FIXED DATA VARIABLE DATA

Visited Zillow Last Week

Applied for Loan New Property

Posted Resume or Changed Jobs in new City

What type of Algorithms?● Machine Learning

○ Next stop: Artificial Intelligence

● Regression Techniques

○ Modeling based on combination of different variables

… constantly modeling and training

Validation

PREDICT LISTING

1212 CHERRY LANE

78

MLS1212 CHERRY LANELISTED FOR SALE

TAX RECORD1212 CHERRY LANE

PROPERTY SOLD

Why Predicting Future Listings is valuable● 70% of homeowners choose first agent in the door.

● Cost of Marketing to everyone is expensive and inefficient.

● Passive Marketing is becoming less effective. Proactive

prospecting and relationship building will be how you will

drive listings.

● It’s the path to Automated Marketing.

Smart Data vs Dumb DataSmart Data greatly reduces the number of homeowners you need to prospect or target with marketing.

An agent with an average neighborhood with 2,000 homes can focus on 400 homeowners scored high with our algorithm.

Dumb Data Smart Data

How can it improve Marketing?

Social Media

Phone

Email

Direct Mail

MARKETINGCHANNELS

Meet in Person

Online Ads

● Target Marketing

○ Right Message, Right Time

● Repetition

○ It takes 20 touches to get a listing.

● Cost

○ 95% of marketing dollars and time

wasted. Smart Data can reduce that by

60%.

Is Predictive Analytics for you?● Are you currently doing any marketing (phone, email, online, direct mail)?

● Are you currently lacking a database of targets (prospects) to market or farm to

generate listings?

● Are you struggling to get new listings in your area due to the competition out

spending you in marketing?

● Are you looking to expand or go into another area where you don’t have a strong

network or know many people?

● Are you trying to generate listing leads?

There is no Silver Bullet (yet)● Predictive Analytics can provide a big advantage, but you still

need to turn the data into listings.

● Not all Predictive Analytics companies are the same (and

some just flat out lie about using Predictive Analytics)

● Don’t just look at the “prediction” value - look at the total

value of the data, platform and services of each vendor.

Questions?

Rich Swier

Co-Founder, offrs.com

rich@offrs.com