OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY:POTENTIAL FOR INDIA

Col. Madan Singh, IRSEEBE(Electrical), MBA(Finance), FIE(India), SMIEEE,

Group General Manager, RITES Limited, IndiaGeneral Engineering Consultants to Ahmedabad Metro, India

madan.singh@ieee.org

GEC: General Engineering Consultants, A Consortium of

SYSTRA-RITES-AECOM-OCG MEGA: Metro Metro-Link Express for

Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

Gemini Offshore Wind Park, Netherlands, 150 x 4 MW = 600 MW, Completed 24 Aug 2016

OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY: POTENTIAL FOR INDIA Introduction

GDP Growth and Energy Demand

The Energy Trilemma

Fast Rising Electricity Demand

Electricity Generating Capacity in India

Renewable Energy Sources in India

Wind Energy – An Alternative for India

Offshore Wind Resources in India

Levelized Cost of Electricity

Social Impact of Wind Project

Conclusions

GDP GROWTH FORECAST PPP1 RANKING

MER RANKING

PPP Rank

2014 2030 2050Country GDP Country Proj. GDP Country Proj. GDP

1. China 17.63 China 36.11 China 61.082. US 17.42 US 25.45 India 42.213. India 7.28 India 17.14 US 41.384. Japan 4.79 Japan 6.00 Indonesia 12.215. Germany 3.62 Indonesia 5.49 Brazil 9.16

Total

MER Rank

2014 2030 2050Country GDP Country Proj. GDP Country Proj. GDP

1. US 17.42 China 26.67 China 53.552. China 10.36 US 25.45 US 41.383. Japan 4.77 India 7.30 India 27.944. Germany 3.82 Japan 5.99 Indonesia 8.745. France 2.90 Germany 4.73 Brazil 8.53

10. India 2.05 Mexico 2.88 Germany 6.34

1 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) estimates adjust for price level differences across different economies and provide a better measure of goods and services produced in an economy than GDP at Market Exchange Rates (MER) estimates

GDP In Trillion USD at 2014 prices

GDP GROWTH AND ENERGY DEMAND World population growth from 7.0 to 9.4/8.7 billion by 2050 (26-36%) Gradual reduction in overall energy intensity and improvement in energy efficiency

Energy intensity is a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation’s economy. It is calculated as units of energy per unit of GDP. High energy intensities indicate a high price or cost of converting energy into GDP. Low energy intensity indicates a lower cost of converting energy into GDP

Global primary energy demand growth from 152 to 193/244 PWh in 2050 (27-61%) Global electricity demand growth from 21.5 to 47.9/53.6 PWh in 2050 (123-150%)

9.3, 193, and 47.9 under Symphony Scenario and 8.7, 244 and 53.6 under Jazz Scenario

Source: The World Bank : PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent (2011)Energy Use, GDP, and Energy Intensity Indexes, 1950-2011

Source: www.energy.gov

PWh = 1015 Wh

THE ENERGY TRILEMMA The energy sector is at a transition point and faces growing challenges

Transforming energy supply Advancing energy access Addressing affordability Improving energy efficiency Managing demand De-carbonizing in line with

requirement of COP 21 (2015 climate change agreement)

Energy sustainability Energy security, Energy equity Environmental sustainabilityBalancing these 3 goalsConstitutes a “Trilemma”

The Energy Trilemma – a “Trilemma” of objectives to deliver affordable and sustainable energy transformation for all stakeholders

FAST RISING ELECTRICITY DEMAND Global energy demand growth from 152 to 193/244 PWh in 2050 (27-61%) Global electricity demand growth from 21.5 to 47.9/53.6 PWh in 2050 (123-150%) Electricity - convenience, ability to make use of renewable resources - to grow fastest, 32% share, Symphony scenario (environmental sustainability through internationally coordinated policies,

assumes 80% of electricity generated using low carbon sources and government promoted Jazz scenario, is consumer focused, has less trade barriers, assumes globalised economy on

accessibility and affordability of energy, and maintain quality of supply with the commercially competitive use of available energy sources

Role of different energy carriers in final energy Worldwide Share of Primary Energy

PWh = 1015 Wh, peta watt-hours

ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY IN INDIA Rapidly growing generating capacity,

Addition of 100 GW in just four years. Increasing urbanization,

100 smart cities initiatives Rapid industrialization,

Industrial Corridors, Make in India initiatives 24x7 Power for All

Installed Capacity

Thermal (MW)

Nuclear (MW)

Renewables (MW) Total (MW)Hydel R.E.S. Sub Total

31-Dec-47 854 - 508 - 508 1,36231-Mar-74 9,058 640 6,966 - 6,966 16,66431-Mar-02 74,429 2,720 26,269 1,628 27,897 1,05,04631-Mar-12 1,31,603 4,780 38,990 24,503 63,493 1,99,87731-Mar-16 2,10,675 5,780 42,783 42,727 85,510 3,01,96531-Oct-16 2,12,469 5,780 43,112 45,917 89,029 3,07,278

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN INDIA Renewable capacity (42.85 GW) overtook hydropower capacity (42.78 GW) in Apr-2016. Strong central policy initiatives and growing private sector investment Ambitious plans for 175 GW renewable power capacities [100 GW of solar, 60 GW of wind,

10 GW of biomass, and 5 GW of small hydro (SHP)] by 2022 This envisage 60% of officially estimated wind potential and 13% of solar potential Renewable energy resources of about 916 GW (10.60 GW - geothermal; 12.46 GW - tidal;

41.00 GW - wave; 102.79 GW – wind(onshore); and 748.98 GW - solar) might become limited due to technological, social and environmental constraints and land availability

There is an urgent need to look for new alternative to known alternatives

R.E.S. 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17*

Wind 7.67 9.34 10.65 12.81 16.90 18.48 21.14 23.44 26.78 28.08Solar 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.94 1.69 2.63 3.74 6.76 8.51Biomass 1.33 1.65 2.17 2.60 3.14 3.60 4.01 4.42 4.83 4.88SHP 2.05 2.16 2.60 2.91 3.41 3.64 3.80 4.06 4.27 4.32U&I 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12TOTAL 11.13 13.24 15.52 18.45 24.50 27.54 31.69 35.78 42.75 45.92

* Up to 30.09.2016

NIWE LBNL Jami Hossain

et al.Xi Lu et al.

010002000300040005000

1022006

4250

2076

WIND ENERGY – AN ALTERNAIVE FOR INDIA (1) First wind farms set up in 1986 in coastal areas of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu

using 55 kW wind turbines Potential for wind farms in India > 2,000 GW (by Dr. Jami Hossain1 in 2011) Potential for wind farms in India ~ 2,006 GW at 80 m hub height (by LBNL2 in 2012)

excluding farms, forests, protected land and hard terrains MNRE, GOI announced a lower estimation of the potential wind resource (excluding

offshore) in India at 49.130 GW and 102.788 GW at 50 m and 80 m hub height respectively, at 15% capacity factor based on assessment of its nodal agency NIWE3

NIWE assumed, 9 MW/km2 of wind power density with average spacing of 5D x 7D, 8D x 4D and 7D x 4D, where D is the rotor diameter of turbine

2 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), US managed by University of California

1 Dr. Jami Hossain, et al., “Report on India’s Wind Power Potential” June 2015

3 National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE, previously C-WET), under Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Govt. of India

WIND ENERGY – AN ALTERNAIVE FOR INDIA (2) Potential for wind farms in India - 4250 GW at 80 m hub height (by Dr. Jami Hossain in 2013) with

currently prevalent technologies excluding Himalayan and Urban regions He used Geographic Information System (GIS), a well established and systemic analysis used all

over the world, to provide an accurate way to identify regions with the potential for wind farm development.

Official wind power potential of China increased 9 times, using this technology. These assessments have been subsequently revalidated by a number of independent studies Faced with gross underestimation of wind power potential, MNRE in Sep 2014, constituted a

committee to re-assess and report India onshore wind potential at 100 m and 120 m hub height CSTEP, WFMS, and SSEF, as part of the Committee, submitted a Report “Re-assessment of

India’s On-shore Wind Power Potential in April 2016

2 WinDForce Management Services Private Limited3 Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation

1 Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy

Land RankGW Potential -

CSTEPGW Potential -

WFMS100 m 120 m 100 m 120 m

Rank 1 (Waste Land) 1,001 1,149 591 653Rank 2 (Agricultural Land) 1,279 1,409 1,222 1,435Rank 3 (Forest Land) 479 401 349 453Total 2,759 2,959 2,162 2,541

WIND ENERGY – AN ALTERNAIVE FOR INDIA (3) Capacity estimates based on a 5D x 7D configuration, provides 5.7 MW/km2 power density, results

into low losses due to interference between the turbines:2,162 - 2,759 GW at 100 m hub height 2,541 - 2,959 GW at 120 m hub height

Capacity estimates based on 3D x 5D densely packed configuration provides the most optimistic estimate of the technical potential, at density of 13.3 MW/km2 that increases the technical potential:

5,043 - 6,439 GW at 100 m hub height 5,927 - 6,905 GW at 120 m hub height

Assessment may vary depending on region specific terrain and layout of turbines but it is about 20 times the current installed capacity of India at 307 GW (Sep-2016). It is all onshore wind potential.

451,128 km2 for 6,000 GW wind farms @13.3 MW/km2, i.e. 13.7% of land area of India Every 100 MW of wind power will reduce 301,387 t CO2 annually based on the grid emission factor

of 0.983 t CO2/MWh.

GW Potential CSTEP WFMS100 m 120 m 100 m 120 m

5D x 7D, 5.7 MW/km2 2,759 2,959 2,162 2,5413D x 5D, 13.3 MW/km2 6,439 6,905 5,043 5,927

OFFSHORE WIND RESOURCES IN INDIA (1) India has 7,517 km coastline; 5,423 km - peninsular India; and 2,094 km - Andaman, Nicobar, and

Lakshadweep island chains Despite having land mass of 3,287,263 km2, availability of land to harness onshore renewable

energy resources is one of the biggest challenge in densely populated countries like India Offshore wind energy, a “strategic energy source” to enable long term energy security Indian naval hydrographic charts: the mainland coastline consists of sandy beaches (43%); rocky

shores, including cliffs (11%); and marshy shores (46%) Continental shelf are best suited for offshore wind farms Despite odds, offshore wind provides gigantic potential, no official estimates so far for India, though

“National Offshore Wind Energy Policy - 2015” announced by MNRE on Oct 1, 2015. Worldwide offshore wind power capacity 75 GW by 2020, its contribution to grow from 1 TWh in

2010 to 370 TWh in 2035, as compared 740 TWh from Solar The consortium led by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) is implementing the Facilitating

Offshore Wind in India (FOWIND) project along with consortium partners CSTEP, DNV, GL, GPCL, and WISE

For offshore wind energy, MOU have been signed in Oct 2014 by MNRE, NIWE and Consortium of NTPC, PGCIL, IREDA, PFC, PTC, GPCL to develop 100 MW offshore wind power projects in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat.

OFFSHORE WIND RESOURCES IN INDIA (2) Key benefits of offshore wind resources are:

(1) Offshore wind resource generally are huge, can generate more energy from fewer turbines; (2) Large cities located near a coastline, offshore wind is suitable for large scale development near

the major demand centers, avoiding the need for long transmission lines; and (3) Building wind farms offshore makes sense in densely populated coastal regions, high land rates

makes onshore development expensive and face opposition from various pressure groups In offshore: abundant wind availability, low environmental effects and good wind speeds –

often up to 12 m/s, not available onshore. Offshore winds are 0.5 to 1 m/s higher than

onshore, depending on the distance from the coast India has territorial water up to 12 nm and exclusive

economic zone (EEZ) from 12 nm to 200 nm The downsides are the need to protect the wind

turbines from salt spray, the higher foundation and installation costs and the additional expenses

of organizing operation and maintenance activities.

Progression of expected wind turbine evolution to deeper water

LEVALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (1)

Where,

It : Capital (Investment) expenditures in the year t

Mt : Operation and maintenance expenditures in the year t

Ft : Fuel expenditures in the year t

Et : Electricity generated in the year t

n : Expected lifetime of system or generating station

r : Discount rate

Plant Type Capacity Factor (%)

Levelized Capital Cost*

Fixed O&M Cost*

Variable O&M Cost*

Transmission Cost*

Total System Cost*

Coal 85 60.4 4.2 29.4 1.2 95.1Natural Gas 87 15.9 2.0 53.6 1.2 72.6Nuclear 90 70.1 11.8 12.2 1.1 95.2

Wind 36 57.7 12.8 0.0 3.1 73.6Solar PV 25 109.8 11.4 0.0 4.1 125.3

Solar Thermal 20 191.6 42.1 0.0 6.0 239.7

Geothermal 92 34.1 12.3 0.0 1.4 47.8

Biomass 83 47.1 14.5 37.6 1.2 100.5

Hydro 54 70.7 3.9 7.0 2.0 83.5

Wind-Offshore 38 168.6 22.5 0.0 5.8 196.9

LEVALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (2)

* Costs are U.S. average levelized cost (2013 USD/MWh)

Project activity improve living standards of the local community by Generating employment and basic amenities in remote regions

Lease rent and tax on land used for the project - augment finances of rural economy, local bodies Reduce the ill effects of Global Warming – produce no greenhouse gases or particulate matters Conserves water resources, fossil fuels, no supply or input price disruptions Transmissions related issues, especially at islands and remote locations Other Living Resources – Wind turbines may kill some birds, bats, etc.; problems like destruction of

remnant native vegetation; erosion connected with building of roads; Noise – Like all mechanical systems, wind turbines produce some noise when they operate.

Design improvement, increased hub height substantially reduced noise from wind turbines. Radio/Radar/Aviation Interference – Turbines with metal blades caused television interference in

areas near the turbine. Composite blades and higher hub height help reduce radio interference 162 fatalities reported world-wide in the modern history of wind power from 1970 to 2015. They

include transport accidents associated with wind farms; air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels is killing seven million people each year according to the World Health Organization (WHO)

Aesthetics and Visual Impacts – spacing, design, and uniformity of installation, some love them, some hates but “beauty is in the eye of the beholder”

SOCIAL IMPACT OF WIND PROJECTS (1)

SOCIAL IMPACT OF WIND PROJECTS (2)

CONCLUSIONS Wind power alone can take care of whole electricity requirement of India in

foreseeable future centuries As technologies evolve, hub heights increase and offshore potential get

harnessed; India and also the whole World can be relieved off its energy worries forever

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTI express my sincere thanks for opportunity given by the organisers for selection of my paper for oral presentation in this international conference. Thanks also due to diverse agencies for providing information for making available their numerous studies, reports and statistical data on the subject.

Bibliography:[1] John Hawksworth and Danny Chan, “The World in 2050” A report by PwC’s Economics and Policy (E&P)

team, February 2016, pp.5, 42, [2] World Energy Council, “World Energy Trilemma Report – 2016”[3] World Energy Council, “World Energy Scenarios – Composing energy future to 2050, 2013”[4] “BP Energy Outlook”, 2016 edition, pp.8, 16[5] “Growth of Electricity Sector India”, 1947-2015, CEA, Ministry of Power, April 2015, pp.22[6] “Executive Summary, Power Sector, Monthly Report for the month of Apr and Oct 2016, CEA, [7] Agence Francaise de Development, France and IREDA, “Study on Tidal & Waves Energy in India: Survey

on the Potential & Proposition of a Roadmap”, for MNRE, Dec 2014, pp.20[8] Dr. Jami Hossain, et al., “Report on India’s Wind Power Potential” June 2015, [9] CSTEP, WFMS, SSEF (2016), “Re-assessment of India’s On-shore Wind Power Potential”, (CSTEP-Report-

2016-04)[10] V. Sanil Kumar, et al, “Coastal processes along the Indian coastline”, Current Science, Vol. 91, No. 4, 25

August 2006, pp. 530-536[11] GWEC, CSTEP, WISE, DNVGL, “Facilitation Offshore Wind in India Project Inception Report,” 2014.

[12] FOWIND (2015), Offshore Tamil Nadu Pre-feasibility Report