SNAPS

HOT OF

OHIO’S

DEMOGRAPH

ICS

Alison D. Goebel, PhDAssociate DirectorGreater Ohio Policy Center

July 9, 2015

ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER

An outcome-oriented statewide non-profit that champions revitalization and sustainable redevelopment in Ohio:

• Revitalize Ohio’s urban cores and metropolitan regions

• Achieve sustainable land reuse and economic growth

OHIO’S POPULATION GROWTH HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1970S

Exhibit 1-1. Total Population, 1910-201414,000,000

12,000,000

11,594,163

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

01910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

2014Year

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2014 State Total Population Estimates

OHIO’S PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEXT 25 YEARS IS MINIMAL

2015-2040: Population growth

Ohio: expected to grow 0.04% per year (bringing state’s total population to ~11,678,970 by 2040)

• Ohio 2014 population: 11,594,163• Net gain of ~85,000 residents by 2040

United States: expected to grow 0.69% per year (adding nearly 60 million people to the populace)

• US 2014 population: 318,857,056

THERE HAS BEEN OVERALL POPULATION LOSS IN OHIO’S LARGE LEGACY CITIES

Akron

Cant

on

Cinc

inna

ti

Clev

elan

d

Colu

mbu

s

Dayto

n

Tole

do

Youn

gsto

wn

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

Population Change in Ohio Cities, 1970-2013

Population in 1970 Population in 2013

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

CHANGE IN POPULATION FROM 2000 TO 2013 FOR OHIO’S SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED CITIES

Canto

n

Hamilt

onLim

a

Lora

in

Man

sfiel

d

Mid

dlet

own

Ports

mou

th

Sprin

field

Youn

gsto

wn

Ohio

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

-9.63%

2.74%

-3.77%

-6.75%

-4.02%

-5.70%

-2.64%

-7.55%-18.91%

-1.59%

IN 2013 RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES EXCEEDED 10% IN OHIO’S MAJOR CITIES

Akron

Canto

n

Cincinn

ati

Cleve

land

Colum

bus

Day

ton

Tole

do

Young

stow

nOhi

o US

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES EXCEEDED 10% IN OHIO’S MID- AND SMALL-SIZED CITIES, IN 2013

Ham

ilton

Lim

a

Lora

in

Man

sfiel

d

Mid

dlet

own

Sprin

gfiel

d

War

ren

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

OHIO IS AGING; OLDER COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTING YOUNGER COHORTS TO REPLACE AGING RESIDENTS2015: population age 55+ Projected overall population

growth 2015-2040

OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34)

91% of Ohio’s millennials with college degrees live in the state’s 8 largest metros

OHIO IS BECOMING MORE RACIALLY/ETHNICALLY DIVERSE: THIS IS A GOOD TREND

OHIO’S IMMIGRANT POPULATION TRENDS

Akron

Canto

n

Cincinn

ati

Cleve

land

Colum

bus

Dayto

n

Tole

do

Young

stow

n0

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000

Foreign-Born Population Total

20002013

Source: 2000 SF3 Sample Data and 2009-2013 ACS 5-Year Estimates

OHIO’S FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION

461,339 foreign born •4.25% of state population

•~50% naturalized; ~50% not US citizen

OHIO’S FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION

Largest foreign born population groups in Ohio:

1. Mexican (50,843) 6. British (14,233)

2. Indian (47,150) 7. Korean (12,345)

3. Chinese (28,543) 8. Filipino (13,867)

4. German (17,677) 9. Vietnamese (10,597)

5. Canadian (15,291) 10. Russian (9,856)

GOPC’S STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Create a loan program that links small business lending with neighborhood improvement efforts

2. Develop programming the connects entrepreneurs with vacant commercial buildings

3. Establish innovative financing programs that support infrastructure modernization and fund brownfield redevelopment

4. Increase state funding and federal funds flexed for transit

5. Implement a statewide Safe Streets policy to ensure safety of all users and encourage economic development

QUESTIONS?

Alison D. Goebel, PhD

Associate Director

Greater Ohio Policy Center

agoebel@greaterohio.org@alisongoebelOH

www.greaterohio.org614-224-0187@greaterohio