1
Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent
Pipeline
November 21, 2005
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
2
IT’S A DIFFERENT ECONOMIC GAME . . .
The Knowledge Economy
Well-educated, skilled workersTechnological innovationStrong research capacityNew kinds of businesses
TalentTechnologyKnowledge
Capital
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
3
Jobs and the Economy Many companies import talent to stay competitive
Congress passed legislation permitting entry of 300,000 temporary computer workers from 1988-2002
60 % of new jobs require skills possessed by only 20 % of current U.S. workforce
By 2012, the knowledge economy will add: 16.4 million high technology jobs, including
4 million computer industry jobs 8.2 million health sciences jobs
(U.S. Department of Labor, 2004)
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline Source: Hudson Institute, 2000Source: Hudson Institute, 2000
4
Factors Affecting U.S. Economy
Fewer Americans majoring in math,
science & engineering
U.S. ranks 11th in broadband deployment
(OECD, June 2004)
Shrinking share of best and brightest foreign students in M, S & E High tech trade is
in growing deficitHigh tech trade is in growing deficit
Declining U.S. share of global R&D
Declining U.S. share of global R&D
Shrinking U.S. share of global
patenting
Shrinking U.S. share of published
scientific articles
U.S. Economy
U.S. Economy
U.S. 15-yr olds rank 24th in math literacy and 26th in problem-
solving in 2003 global assessment (PISA)
5
“Tapping America’s Potential” Significant Trends
By 2010, over 90% of all scientists and engineers in the world will be living in Asia
South Korea, with one-sixth of U.S. population, graduates as many engineers as U.S.
50+ percent of engineering doctorates in U.S. awarded to foreign nationals
Depletion of mathematics and science teacher talent pool by substantially higher private sector compensation
Over 50% of current science and engineering workforce is approaching retirement
Business Roundtable (2005) Tapping America’s Potential: The Education for Innovation Initiative.
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
6
U.S. Losing Lead in Science and Innovation
Fewer Nobel PrizesDominance between 1960 – 1990; 2000-2004 – 51%
Reduced Share of U.S. Industrial PatentsFrom 60.2% in 1980 to 51.8% in 2003
Fewer Papers Published by U.S. Researchers in Physics Review From 61% in 1983 to 29% in 2003
Reverse Brain DrainDeclining number of foreign doctoral students staying in U.S.
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
Source: NY Times, May 3, 2004
7
U.S. Trained Students Returning to Countries of Origin
Country Per Cent
China 48
Germany 40.5
India 55
Korea 23
Taiwan 27.5
United Kingdom 53
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent PipelineNSB, NSB, Science and EngineeringScience and Engineering Indicators, 2000Indicators, 2000
8
9
10
The U.S. is losing too many young people along the education pipeline
For every TEN students who start high school …
SEVEN will get a high school diploma(plus ONE will obtain a GED) …
FIVE will enroll in a postsecondary institution …
But fewer than THREE will complete a Bachelor’s degree within ten years.
Source: Jobs for the Future, Boston
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science
Talent Pipeline
11
Percent of population
with a bachelor’s
degree
1990
1. Connecticut 27.2% 2. Massachusetts 27.2% 3. Colorado 27.0% 4. New Jersey 24.8% 5. Virginia 24.5%...39. OHIO 17.0%40. Iowa 16.9%41. South Carolina 16.6%42. Louisiana 16.1%43. Tennessee 15.9%44. Alabama 15.6%45. Indiana 15.6%46. Nevada 15.3%47. Mississippi 14.8%48. Kentucky 13.6%49. Arkansas 13.4%50. West Virginia 12.3%
2000
1. Massachusetts 33.2% 2. Colorado 32.7% 3. Maryland 31.4% 4. Connecticut 31.4% 5. New Jersey 29.8%…39. OHIO 21.1%40. South Carolina 20.4%41. Oklahoma 20.3%42. Tennessee 19.6%43. Indiana 19.4%44. Alabama 19.0%45. Louisiana 18.7%46. Nevada 18.2%47. Kentucky 17.1%48. Mississippi 16.9%49. Arkansas 16.7%50. West Virginia 14.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1990, 2000
IMPROVEMENT, BUT . . .
Ohio Hasn’t Made Up Ground
Ohio Hasn’t Made Up Ground
12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
Per
cent
of
natio
nal a
vera
ge
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
U.S. Average
115%
95%
105%
85%
A HIGHLY SKILLED WORKFORCE …
Income and Education
Ohio Per Capita Income
Ohio lacks:
New businesses
New products
New technologies
College graduates
Bachelor’sDegree Attainment
AssociateDegree Attainment
Income and Education
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
13
Ohio’s Education System
New Jobs for Ohioans
Expansions of Existing Companies
Newly Recruited Companies
Infusion of Faculty/Students into Industry
Newly CreatedCompanies
Transfer of Technologyto Industry
Training of Knowledge Workers for Industry
INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL =
Marketplace Value, New Jobs
14
Why Is Ohio Focused on Mathematics and Science Achievement?
High-wage jobs require high levels of mathematics and science knowledge and skill
Proportion of U.S. students (2%) achieving at the highest mathematics and science levels is half that of other developed nations (4%)
Large mathematics and science achievement gaps between students from high and low income have become a chronic deficiency and an equity issue in Ohio
Ohio will need to use all of its human resources to stay competitive in the global economy
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
15
Ohio Student Percentage at NAEP 2005
Grade 4 Mathematics Achievement Levels
*Significantly different from 2005
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
16
Ohio Student Percentage NAEP 2005 at Grade 8 Ohio Student Percentage NAEP 2005 at Grade 8 Mathematics Achievement LevelsMathematics Achievement Levels
*Significantly different than 2005
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
17
Closing the Gap?
NAEP Scores - 8th Grade
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1990 1992 2000 2003 2005
Year
Sco
res
White AverageScale Score
Black AverageScale Score
Hispanic AverageScale Score
Not eligible forfree/reduced pricelunch
Eligible forfree/reduced pricelunch
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
18
Too often, gaps in educational attainment are linked to level of family income
19%
High Income ($75K+)
Completed an Associates Degree or higher
Never obtained a college degree
Never enrolled in college
Dropped out of high school
37%
21%
23%
76%
1% 2%
21%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Low Income (<$25K)
Source: Jobs for the Future, Boston
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
19
Trends in Engineering, Mathematics, and Science Degrees by Award Level in OhioPer Cent Change in Degrees Awarded from 1999-2003
Discipline Associate
2002 %
Bachelor’s
2002 %
Master’s
2002 %
Doctoral
2002 %
Engineering 2,601 0 3,951 10 1,310 - 7 229 - 4
Natural Sciences & Mathematics
2,032 60 5,383 8 1,015 - 4 408 16
All disciplines 20,509 8 54,325 10 18,673 12 1,837 - 3
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
Source: OBR, Performance Report, 2005
20
COUNCIL PRODUCTS
(1) Findings and policy recommendations to the Governor, Chancellor, and State Superintendent for improvements in the P-16+ mathematics and science education system.
(2) Mechanisms for data-based analysis of the education-business economy pipeline and for transforming a scientific analysis of system problems into long term policy recommendations.
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline
21
Council’s Work Will Reflect… Careful, scientific, analytical study of the Ohio system of
mathematics and science education Analysis of the output as it relates to the economic needs
of the state Evidence-based and data-supported determination of
causal systemic problems Selected strategic actions and resources to address those
problems Policy recommendations and longitudinal planning for
transforming the system
Improving Ohio’s Mathematics and Science Talent Pipeline