Remarks by Marianne Kah

Chief Economist

Oil and Natural Gas Outlook: Implications for Alaska The Alliance – Meet Alaska

January 9, 2015

Cautionary Statement

The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations or operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information.

Use of non-GAAP financial information – This presentation may include non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-GAAP measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure in an appendix.

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.

January 9, 2015 2

Challenging Oil and Natural Gas Outlook

• Weak global economic and energy demand growth

• Global oil supply growth outpacing demand, causing present oil price weakness

• Need for U.S. crude exports

• Weak N.A. natural gas market • Sufficient supplies available below $5/MMBtu prices

• Loosening international natural gas market • Pipeline and LNG supply competition

• Lower economic and gas demand growth

• Lower oil prices reducing LNG contract prices

• Environmental, cost and tax pressures

January 9, 2015 3

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

IMF’s Global GDP Growth

------------------------------ Date of Forecast -----------------------------

Apr. 2011

Sep. 2011

Apr. 2012

Oct. 2012

Apr. 2013

Oct. 2013

Apr. 2014

Oct. 2014

Downward Revisions to Global Economic Growth Forecasts

Downward revision has been a constant theme

2012

2013 2014

2015

Percent

4

Source: IMF semi-annual forecasts

January 9, 2015

Brent Crude Market Outlook

5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2014 2015 2016$50

$70

$90

$110

$130

$150

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Expert Range

Global Oil Demand vs. Non-OPEC Supply Growth

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

pe

r D

ay

Demand

Non-OPEC Supply

U.S.

Other Market Brent Price Outlook

Re

al 2

01

4 D

olla

rs p

er

Bar

rel

Source: IEA 12/14 Monthly & Medium Term, U.S. includes NGLs Notes: 2014 Brent price is annual average; Futures from 1/5/2015

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Historical Brent Crude Price

Stable range until recently

Do

llar

s p

er

Bar

rel

Recent weakness in economic and oil demand growth lowered prices

Futures

January 9, 2015

U.S. Oil Production is Set to Expand

Source: Rystad Energy Upstream Database

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

pe

r D

ay

Conventional Production

U.S. Tight Oil

NGLs

Alaska Crude

EIA’s High Resource Case

U.S. Crude, Condensate, Natural Gas Liquids Forecast

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014, various forecasts

Liquids production has returned to levels not seen since 1972

6 January 9, 2015

Oil & Gas Has Spurred Growth in the Broader U.S. Economy

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Energy production prevented U.S. downturn from being worse, and spurred recovery

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Oil and Gas Sector Expanded While Other Sectors Lagged Index of Job Growth: Jan. 2007 = 1.0

Oil and Gas Sector Jobs +67%

Total Private Sector +2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Total Private Sector Jobs, NAICS 211000 and 213112).

7

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Manufacturing Employment Reversed a 12-year Decline (Annual % change)

January 9, 2015

In-Migration of Manufacturing: U.S. Industrial “Re-shoring”

China

U.S.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Below 50 = Contraction

11.4

11.8

12.2

12.6

13.0

13.4

13.8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Markit Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Manufacturing PMI Consistently Ahead vs. China Since Early 2011

Above 50 = Expansion

8

Affordable energy has given U.S. industry a competitive advantage

January 9, 2015

Millions Index

U.S. Manufacturing Employment: Gained about 750,000 Jobs Since 2010

Changing Pattern of U.S. Crude Imports

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Exports and/or refinery

additions required

Heavy

Medium

Light Sour

Light Sweet

Light Sweet

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA; Turner, Mason & Co.

• Declining light, sweet crude imports, with year round exports needed by 2017 • Condensates and super light

crudes are already in surplus • Seasonal exports needed before

then during U.S. refinery turnarounds / outages

• Eventual reductions in light, sour

and medium crude imports

• U.S. likely to maintain heavy crude imports that better matches domestic refinery configuration

Need for exports of surplus light, sweet crudes

9 January 9, 2015

U.S. Crude Imports/(Exports)

Million Barrels per Day

Case for ANS Crude Exports

West Coast imports of ANS face stiffer competition from Lower-48, Canada & South America

10

Do

llars

per

Bar

rel

Rail Unloading Capacity on West Coast

Current West Coast rail unloading capacity ~300 MBD Could reach 1250 MBD capacity by end-2016

Source: ConocoPhillips, Various; Platts for prices

Puget Sound 110 MBD Currently Operating +120 MBD Planned

Portland/SW WA 60 MBD Currently Operating +300 MBD Planned

San Francisco Area 39 MBD Currently Operating +280 MBD Planned

Bakersfield Area 28 MBD Currently Operating +250 MBD Planned

L.A. Area 72 MBD Currently Operating

-10

-5

0

5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ANS (Long Beach) - Brent Price Differential

January 9, 2015

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ANS (Long Beach) - WTI Price Differential

Do

llars

pe

r B

arre

l

ANS premium to WTI dissipating

ANS falling relative to Brent

Ability to Export L48 Crude Would Increase U.S. Oil Production

• Lifting the ban on U.S. Lower 48 crude exports would increase production by 1.5 to 3.0 MMBD by 2020

• 10-20% increase

• Removing domestic crude price discounts caused by the ban would increase investment in new production

• More wells and plays would become economic

• Increased cash flow to invest

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2015 2020

Reference

HighResource

Source: NERA prepared for Brookings Institution, “Economic Benefits of Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban,” Sept. 9, 2014.

Incremental U.S. Crude Production from Lifting Export Ban in 2015

Million Barrels per Day

Increased production comes with significant economic benefits to the U.S.

11 January 9, 2015

Benefits of U.S. Crude Oil Exports

• Would lower consumer fuel costs at the pump by $18 billion annually

• U.S. economy could gain $135 billion and about one million jobs at its peak

• Reduce nation’s oil import bill by $67 billion annually

• Increase government revenues by $1.3 trillion between 2016-2030

• Strengthen U.S. geopolitical position

More jobs & economic development would result from continued growth in U.S. oil production

Source: IHS Global Inc., “U.S. Crude Oil Export Decision: Assessing the Impact of the Export Ban and Free Trade on the U.S. Economy,” May 29, 2014

12 January 9, 2015

Gasoline Prices Are Set Globally by International Crude Prices

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Gulf

New York

N.W. Europe

Singapore

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Gulf

New York

Brent

WTI

Spot Gasoline Prices

U.S. Gasoline Prices vs. International & Domestic Crude Prices

Refined product prices around the world track each other demonstrating

that US gasoline prices are set globally.

Refined product prices more closely track international crude prices (Brent) than US domestic crude prices (WTI).

U.S. crude exports should lower U.S. gasoline prices Source: Bloomberg

13 January 9, 2015

Dollars per Gallon Dollars per Barrel

U.S. LNG Exports

Japan LNG

U.K. Spot

U.S.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

No

min

al $

/MM

btu

Wide Divergence Between Pricing in Major Markets

Source: Bloomberg; U.S. Department of Energy, EIA, AEO 2005-2014

14

2005

2007

2008

2010

2013

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2015 2020 2025

Net Exporter

2014

Net Importer

Historical U.S. Department of Energy Projections

Bill

ion

Cu

bic

Fe

et p

er

Day

U.S. is poised to become an LNG exporter

January 9, 2015

Alaska Activities Announced Since Tax reform (SB21) Passed

• Added two rigs to the Kuparuk rig fleet

• Investment has decreased Kuparuk Unit

field decline from 7% to 1%

• Two new-build rigs are on order – deliver 2016

• Rotary rig Doyon 142

• Coil tubing drill rig Nabors CDR-3

• New Drill site at Kuparuk (DS-2S) – Approved October 2014

• Evaluating plans for additional development in NPRA (GMT-1)

• In dialogue with Federal Government for acceptable terms

• Pre-engineering for viscous oil expansion in Kuparuk (1H NEWS)

*Gross dollars

15 January 9, 2015

Implications for Alaska

• Alaska North Slope oil needs to be cost competitive, especially in today’s low oil price environment

• ANS crude export option driven by increased flows of competing crude oils to the U.S. West Coast

• Relatively low natural gas prices in Lower 48 makes those LNG projects competitive and they are helping set global LNG prices

• With stiff competition, Alaska LNG needs to be competitive with regard to cost and fiscal terms

January 9, 2015 16