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Michael [email protected]
651 726 7563 (office)
www.FRESH-ENERGY.org5.0
2.2
01
2Oil Depletion: A Useful Crisis
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Minneapolis Citizens’ Environmental Advisory Committee
Proven oil reserves by region
Middle East
North America
Central & South America
Africa
Eurasia
Asia
Europe
0 200 400 600 800
World Total: 1,354 Billion Barrels
Figure 35. World proved oil reserves by geographic region as of January 1, 2010
million barrels
Mideast has more proven oil than rest of world combined.
"Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2009 ), pp. 22-23.
Proved oil reserves by country
Source: The World Factbook 2009. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2009.
billion barrels
Oil reserve burn rate by country
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
burn rate (annual production of proved reserves)
Oil discoveries falling behind production
Source: Colin Campbell, ASPO International
Oil prices 2002-2011
TFC Commodity ChartsLight Crude Oil (CL, NYMEX)Monthly Price Chart
China demand driving increased consumption of world liquid fuels
Vehicles per thousand people by country
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Petroleum and Emissions Data, Transportation Energy Databook, 2010
U.S. DOE estimate of world liquid fuel supply, 2008-2030
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Projected production of global oil and gas liquids
Source: 2007 Survey of Energy Resources ,World Energy Council
GloGlobal Average Annual Crude Oil Production mbpd 2002-2011
Deepwater drilling at increasing depth, risk and cost
Cambridge Energy Research Associates:
"Growth in oil sands production has been the main driver in making Canada the largest supplier, by far, of foreign oil to the United States.
But the growth potential is much bigger—volumes could be as much as three to four times higher in 2030 than in 2009."
Tar-sands oil
Tar sands of Canada: landscape before and after
Hauling tar sands
Oil depletion is an economic concept:Only a fraction of non-conventional oil can be produced at a cost of oil we can afford to burn
Environment Research Letters 1 (October–December 2006) Risks of the oil transition A E Farrell and A R Brandt, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA
• Increasing fuel economy of vehicles
• Reducing vehicle miles traveled– Better urban design, walkable and bikable places to live– Better infrastructure for public transportation
• Substitute new fuels for oil– Electricity– Biofuels— preferably, non-conventional, non-food– Natural gas
Top strategies for reducing oil consumption
Global passenger vehicle standards
Source: International Council on Clean Transportation
U.S. infrastructure investment,Gas prices/taxes by country
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Automobile Association, European Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration: Japanese Oil Information Centre, Natural Resources Canada
$ per litre, 4/2011U.S. investment in infrastructure, % GDP
Michael [email protected]
612-963-1268 (cell)651-726-7563 (office)
On Twitter: @NobleIdeas
Are you a member of Fresh Energy? Please join us in the adventure.
Source: “Scraping Bottom: The Canadian Oil Boom,” National Geographic photo essay, 2009
Canadian oil sands extraction faces challenges
World liquid consumption forecast, 2007 and 2035
North America
Non-OECD Asia
OECD Europe
OECD Asia
Central and South America
Middle East
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Africa
0 10 20 30 40
27
32
14
8
8
11
5
5
16.76
15
8
5
6
5
3
2035
2007
Figure 27. World liquids consumption by region and country group, 2007 and 2035
million barrels per day
Figure 27. World liquids consumption by region and country group, 2007 and 2035
EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009), web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. 2035: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).
Annual average natural gas prices, 1990-2035
2009 dollars per thousand cubic feet
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
Renewable energy cost trendsLevelized cents/kWh in constant $2,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
40
30
20
10
01980 1990 2000 2010 2020
10
0
80
60
40
20
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
10
8
6
4
3
01980 1990 2000 2010 2020
15
12
9
6
3
01980 1990 2000 2010 2020
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CO
E c
en
ts/k
Wh
CO
E c
en
ts/k
zWh
Source: U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Analysis Office. Updated 2002
Levelized cost of new power generation resources(coal, gas, renewables)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
range for total system levelized costs (2009 $/megawatt-hour)
Solar PV declining prices to converge with rising grid pricesEle
ctri
city
pri
ces
($/k
W-h
r)
Based on the work of Stephen O’Rourke, Deutsche Bank
U.S. average (8.6 cents/kWh)
Delivered coal prices, 2000-2009N
om
inal dolla
rs p
er
short
ton
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2009, DOE/EIA-0121(2009/Q4) (Washington, DC April 2010); Coal Industry Annual, DOE/EIA-0584, various issues; and Annual Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0584(2003), various issues; Electric Power Monthly, March 2010, DOE/EIA-0226 (2010/03), (Washington, DC); and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Monthly Report EM 545" and "Monthly Report IM 145."
