Oil Platform Risk Assessment in the Gulf of Mexico

UNC-Chapel Hill GEOG 491November 29, 2010

Overview

• Objective: Perform a risk assessment analysis for active oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico that incorporates environmental, economic, and human factors.

• Environmental factors: Hurricanes, Sea Floor Sediment Type, Species

• Economic factors: State Oil Dependency, Industry Impact, Platform Value

• Human factors: Safety, Maintenance, Technology

Analysis Schematic Diagram

Oil Platform Disaster

Environmental Risk

Economic Risks

Human Risk

Environmental Impact

Economic Impact

Human Impact

http://www.prisonplanet.com/images/june2010/090610top.jpg

Case Study: Deepwater Horizon (BP)

• Maps of Oil Spill• Environmental/Economic Data• Major causes (human error, env., etc.)• Major impacts (economic, environmental, etc)• Motivation for our study (assessing potential

for similar disasters on active platforms)

Environmental Risk Factors

Stone Crab

Hurricanes

Red DrumPink ShrimpDolphins

Sediment Type

Hurricanes

*Select byAttributes

*Line Density

SPECIES

Sediment Type

1 (Low) 2 3 4 (High)

Hard banks Sand Silt Clay

Gravelly Sand

Sand Silt Clay

Sandy Clay Silty Clay

Sandy Silt Silty Sand Clayey Silt

*Reclassify

*Features to Raster

*Raster Calculator

*Composite = 0.5*[hurricane_risk] + 0.4*[sediment_risk] + 0.1*[species_risk]

Economic Risk Factors

Who are the big players?OIL PROD. RANK COMPANY NAME CASING HEAD GAS GAS TOTAL GAS CONDENSATE CRUDE OIL TOTAL OIL

1BP Exploration & Production Inc. 166,070,901 6,146,156 172,217,057 4,104,078 172,465,896 176,569,974

2 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. 62,385,975 143,302,884 205,688,859 3,065,560 77,786,322 80,851,882 3 Shell Offshore Inc. 97,665,600 77,271,947 174,937,547 2,797,104 72,762,999 75,560,103

4BHP Billiton Petroleum (GOM) Inc. 16,966,611 - 16,966,611 - 40,259,374 40,259,374

5Anadarko Petroleum Corporation 23,502,464 204,699,776 228,202,240 4,175,840 22,365,482 26,541,322

6 Apache Corporation 25,153,445 125,597,954 150,751,399 3,978,782 14,296,681 18,275,463

7

Murphy Exploration & Production Company - USA 18,268,848 - 18,268,848 - 17,196,384 17,196,384

8 Hess Corporation 2,436,815 56,853,854 59,290,669 13,474,485 1,268,819 14,743,304 9 Eni Petroleum Co. Inc. 10,240,386 102,826,086 113,066,472 2,232,866 11,062,050 13,294,916

10Exxon Mobil Corporation 9,947,143 76,407,624 86,354,767 665,116 7,832,333 8,497,449

11-124 Bottom 114 Companies 120,378,916 983,473,946 1,103,852,862 26,602,868 73,241,501 99,844,369

31%

14%

13%

7%5%3%

3%3%2%1% 17%

BP Exploration & Production Inc.Chevron U.S.A. Inc.Shell Offshore Inc.BHP Billiton Petroleum (GOM) Inc.Anadarko Petroleum CorporationApache CorporationMurphy Exploration & Production Company - USAHess CorporationEni Petroleum Co. Inc.Exxon Mobil CorporationBottom 114 Companies

Other Possible StudiesEnvironmental Economic Human

Shoreline Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) – Assesses shoreline vulnerability to oil spills on a scale of 1-10.At-risk species (more variety and oil-specific vulnerability calculation)Specific habitat impact analysis (Coral, nesting, spawning locations)