Oil Supply Security

JohannesJohannes BenigniBenigni, 20 , 20 January 2004January 2004PVM Oil Associates PVM Oil Associates -- ViennaVienna

Strategic Energy ServicesStrategic Energy Services

Oil Supply SecurityOil Supply SecurityEnergiegespräche Energiegespräche ““VersorgungssicherheitVersorgungssicherheit” ” der der EVAEVA

VVIIEENNNNAA

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Historical Brent Dated [$/bbl]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

PVM Vienna Research Centre 2

! Global Supply & Demand! Political Risk: 2003 Experience! Supply Security

• Import Dependency• Europe• Russia• Strategic Stocks• Market Structure

ContentsContents


Global Supply & DemandGlobal Supply & Demand

2.9 3.9 5.42.0

2000 2010 2020 2030

26.239.3

20.332.8

2000 2010 2020 2030

5.2 6.3 7.74.1

2000 2010 2020 2030

15.3 16.0 16.414.1

2000 2010 2020 2030

5.8 7.4 9.34.5

2000 2010 2020 2030

22.2 24.8 27.7 30.8

2000 2010 2020 2030

5.4 6.3 7.14.6

2000 2010 2020 2030

World Oil Demand 2000 - 2030 [mbpd]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art



14.71

24.55

-9.84

1.966.614.65

6.32

16.03

-9.71

8.29

2.60

5.69

24.13

5.15

18.98

10.31

3.55

6.76

8.07

21.91

-13.84

World Crude Supply-Demand Balance 2003 [mbpd]



170%

167%

119%

111%

42%

39%

24%

16%

88%

118%

145%

104%

63%

60%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

Africa

India

China

Other East Asia

Indonesia

Brazil

Other Latin America

Middle East

Russia

World

Other Transition

OECD N. America

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

World Oil Demand Change 2000-2030

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Source: IEA



Africa7%Asia Pacific

4%North America

5%

South & Central America9%

Russia6%

Europe & Eurasia4%

Middle East65%

Shares Of Global Oil Reserves

VVIIEE NNNNAA Cha

rt


Political Risk: 2003 ExperiencePolitical Risk: 2003 Experience

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Nov 02 Jan 03 Mar 03 May 03 Jul 03 Sep 03 Nov 0323.00

25.00

27.00

29.00

31.00

33.00

35.00Iraqi Supply Deficit [mbbls]Nigerian Supply Deficit [mbbls]Venezuelan Supply Deficit [mbbls]Brent Dated [$/bbl]

Iraqi Supply Deficit & Brent Dated [mbpd; $/bbl]

Source: PVM

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art



5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 0318.00

20.00

22.00

24.00

26.00

28.00

30.00

32.00

34.00

Saudi Arabian Oil Output - left scale

Dated Brent - right scale

Saudi Oil Production & Oil Prices [mbpd, $/bbl]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art



18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 040

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Total Crude CapacityTotal Crude OutputSpare Capacity - right scale

OPEC's Quotas and Production [mbpd]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art


Supply Security: Import DependencySupply Security: Import Dependency

80.99%

68.16%

52.48%

66.01%

78.13%

84.76%

67.86%

30.88%

43.55%

55.60%

38.74%

32.66%

83.77%

75.76%

53.74%54.77%

89.76%

62.56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

European Oil Import DependencyN. American Oil Import DependencyAsian Oil Import Dependency

Oil Import Dependency [mbpd, %]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Source: IEA & PVM


Supply Security: Import DependencySupply Security: Import DependencyDemand Forecastchanges in some countries

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 030.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00US Crude Imports - left scale

Chinese Crude Imports - right scale

US & Chinese Crude Imports [mbpd]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art



Mexico16%

Canada16%

Nigeria10%

Venezuela13%

Saudi Arabia14%

Other7%

Algeria1%

Indonesia1%

Colombia2%

Iraq7%

Angola4%

United Kingdom3%

Kuwait2% Ecuador

2%

Norway2%

US Crude Imports by Country of Origin in October 2003 [mbbls]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Countries with potential risk of disruption



Oman10%

Angola11%

Regional Asia16%

Russia5%

Sudan7%

Yemen7%

Other Africa6%

Other ME3%

America1%Saudi Arabia

18%

Kazakhstan1%

North Sea1%

Iran14%

Chinese Crude Oil Imports by Source - January-September 2003 [%, bpd]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Countries with potential risk of

disruption



China2%

Oman5%

Kuwait7%

Saudi Arabia24%

Iran16%

Neutral Zone4%

Indonesia4%

Qatar10%

UAE24%

Nigeria2%

Sudan1%

Australia1%

Japanese Crude Imports by Country - 2003 ['000 bpd]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Source: METI

Countries with potential risk of disruption


Supply Security: EuropeSupply Security: Europe

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%Norway mbpdUK mbpdNorway %UK %

Norway and UK Production and Share in Total Non-Opec Supply [mbpd, %]

Source: IEA, PVM Estimates

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art


Supply Security: RussiaSupply Security: Russia



0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Forecast Total CapacityChina II (2010?)

Murmansk (2007?)Adria II (2006?)

China (2005?)

Nakhodka (2008)Additional Bypassing Systems (Ongoing)

Phase II BPS (2004)Other De-Bottlenecking (2004)

Adria(2004)

Butinge (2004)Phase II BPS (2003)

Tuapse Shift to Urals (2003)

Novorossiysk (2003)Pivdenny (2003)

Existing Bypassing Systems

Current Transneft Capacity

Expansion Projects Of Non-CIS Export Capacity [mbpd]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Source: PVM






Supply Security: Strategic StocksSupply Security: Strategic Stocks

250

280

310

340

370

400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004500

530

560

590

620

650

Strategic Petroleum Reserve - left scale

Commercial Crude Stocks - right scale

Comparison US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Commercial Stocks [mbbls]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Source: EIA



250

260

270

280

290

300

Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 045.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

US Commercial Crude Stocks

Nymex WTI 3-2-1 Crack - right scale

US Commercial Crude Stocks and Nymex WTI 3-2-1 Crack [mbbls, $/bbl]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art



1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200615

18

21

24

27

30

Commercial Crude Stocks per Refinery - left scale

Crude Forward Cover (Total US) - right scale

US Crude Stocks per Refinery and Forward Cover [mbbls, days]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

1990 2051991 2021992 1991993 1871994 1791995 1751996 1691997 1631998 1631999 1612000 1542001 1522002 1432003 1332004 132

No. US Refineries


Supply Security: Market StructureSupply Security: Market StructureGlobal Stock Build/Draw

25.5825.6225.6825.7325.7925.98

26.2026.39

26.5726.77

27.05

27.41

28.19

28.89

29.73

30.83

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007

Quarterly Dated Brent Swap Levels [$/bbl]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art



81.89

79.20

77.44

79.98

80.57

78.00

76.07

79.0179.07

76.66

75.19

76.9177.03

76.07

75.52

77.3177.60

76.40

74.40

76.40

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04e

Quarterly World Oil Demand [mbpd]

VVIIEENNNNAA Ch

art

Source: IEA

If you have any further questions about If you have any further questions about

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYINTERNATIONAL ENERGY

Please contact usPlease contact us

PVM Oil Associates GmbHWollzeile 6-8 " 1010 Vienna " Austria

Tel: +43-1-513 49 22 " Fax: +43-1-513 49 66 " ISDN VC: +43-1-513 49 22 66E-mail: [email protected] " URL: http://www.pvm.at/

International Energy Broking International Energy Broking –– Consulting Consulting –– IT ServicesIT Services

VVIIEENNNNAA

Date post:	11-Feb-2022
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	1 times
Download:	0 times

Oil Supply Security

Documents