Market summaries Market s ummaries 5 Even if crops suffered from unfavourable weather in several countries, a marked rebound in global oilseed output is forecast for 2012/13. While current crop estimates should allow a conspicuous year-on-year rise in meal output, oil production growth is likely to remain below trend. Global supplies are expected to grow at a slower pace than production, due to low stock levels at the beginning of the season. Subdued global economic growth is likely to slow demand for oils and meals in 2012/13. Oils/fats consumption could also be affected by weaker demand from the biodiesel sector, whereas persistently high meal prices are expected to result in an unusual contraction in global meal/cake utilization. End-of-season stocks of oilseeds and derived products are anticipated to increase, both in absolute terms and relative to consumption. Nonetheless, stock-to-use ratios are likely to remain low compared to previous years, in particular for meals. International trade in oilseeds and sub-products is forecast to decline, especially in meals/cakes, mirroring weak growth in domestic consumption in some of the worlds major importing countries. As for meals, near-record prices have lowered appetite for imported material. In general, international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals have softened since the start of this season, amid improved production prospects and weak consumption growth. The decrease has been less marked for meals, whose values remained close to all-time highs reflecting the market’s concerns about persistent supply tightness during the first half of the season. During the second half, prices in the oilseed complex could ease further as South America’s record harvests enter the market and provided the positive forecasts for next season’s Northern Hemisphere crops are confirmed. Combined with continued weak consumption growth, the production gains anticipated for next season should permit global stocks levels and stock-to-use ratios to rise further in 2013/14, especially in the meals/cakes subsector, thus suggesting a further general relaxation of prices. OILSEEDS MARKET SUMMARY Contact: [email protected]FAO -Trade and Markets Division Food Outlook June 2013
Transcript
Market sum
maries
Market sum
maries
5
Even if crops su�ered from unfavourable weather in several countries, a marked rebound in global oilseed output is forecast for 2012/13. While current crop estimates should allow a conspicuous year-on-year rise in meal output, oil production growth is likely to remain below trend. Global supplies are expected to grow at a slower pace than production, due to low stock levels at the beginning of the season.
Subdued global economic growth is likely to slow demand for oils and meals in 2012/13. Oils/fats consumption could also be a�ected by weaker demand from the biodiesel sector, whereas persistently high meal prices are expected to result in an unusual contraction in global meal/cake utilization. End-of-season stocks of oilseeds and derived products are anticipated to increase, both in absolute terms and relative to consumption. Nonetheless, stock-to-use ratios are likely to remain low compared to previous years, in particular for meals.
International trade in oilseeds and sub-products is forecast to decline, especially in meals/cakes, mirroring weak growth in domestic consumption in some of the worlds major importing countries. As for meals, near-record prices have lowered appetite for imported material.
In general, international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals have softened since the start of this season, amid improved production prospects and weak consumption growth. The decrease has been less marked for meals, whose values remained close to all-time highs reflecting the market’s concerns about persistent supply tightness during the first half of the season. During the second half, prices in the oilseed complex could ease further as South America’s record harvests enter the market and provided the positive forecasts for next season’s Northern Hemisphere crops are confirmed. Combined with continued weak consumption growth, the production gains anticipated for next season should permit global stocks levels and stock-to-use ratios to rise further in 2013/14, especially in the meals/cakes subsector, thus suggesting a further general relaxation of prices.
FAO -Trade and Markets DivisionFood Outlook June 2013
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OILSEEDS, OILS AND MEALS1
1 Almost the entire volume of oilcrops harvested worldwide is crushed to obtain oils and fats for human nutrition or industrial purposes, and to obtain cakes and meals which are used as feed ingredients. Therefore, rather than referring to oilseeds, the analysis of the market situation is mainly undertaken in terms of oils/fats and cakes/meals. Production data for oils (cakes) derived from oilseeds refer to the oil (cake) equivalents of national production of the relevant oilseeds, i.e. they do not reflect the outcome of actual oilseed crush in individual countries. Furthermore, the data on trade in and stocks of oils (cakes) refer to the sum of trade in and stocks of oils and cakes plus the oil (cake) equivalent of oilseed trade and stocks.
Major oilseeds exporters and importers
Major ExportersMajor Importers
PRICES2
As the 2011/12 season (October/September) drew to a
close, international prices for both, oilseeds and meals/
cakes started to ease, ending a spell of steady price rises.
However, during the first seven months of the current
2012/13 season, oilseed quotations were, on average,
above the level recorded during the corresponding period
of the last three seasons, while those of meals remained
close to all-time highs. In the meantime, oils/fats values
continued to lose strength, following the downward path
that commenced in 2011.
Oilseed prices eased, as forecasts of a full rebound and
possibly a record performance in total oilseed production
in 2012/13 allayed market concerns regarding global
supply tightness. In particular, the prospect of record
South American soy crops brought relief to the market,
making up for the poor US soybean harvest. Additional
factors contributing to the easing of soybean prices include
relatively weak demand growth in China and the EU,
2 For details on prices and corresponding indices, see appendix table 24.
Figure 1. FAO monthly international price indices for oilseeds, oils/fats and meals/cakes (2002-2004=100)
the softening of international grains prices and forecasts
of a possible bumper 2013/14 soy crop in the United
States. However, a number of factors prevented oilseed
prices from falling more markedly, notably unexpected
weather problems in parts of South America, the market’s
protracted, strong reliance on thinning old crop supplies
from the United States and, more recently, the emergence
of logistical bottlenecks in Brazil and sluggish sales of
soybeans by Argentine farmers.
The world market for protein meals/cakes, which is
dominated by soybean meal, largely followed the dynamics
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Oils/fats
Oilseeds
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Figure 5. CBOT soybean futures for SeptemberFigure 2. FAO monthly price index for oilseeds (2002-2004=100)
Figure 3. FAO monthly price index for oils/fats (2002-2004=100)
Figure 4. FAO monthly price index for meals/cakes (2002-2004=100)
of the soybean market, with increasingly tight global
fishmeal supplies also lending support to prices.
Regarding the slide in oils/fats prices during 2012/13, in
addition to softening soybean values, developments in the
palm oil market played a major role. A period of unusually
high palm oil production combined with a temporary
slowdown in import demand led to an exceptional surge in
inventories in key producing countries, exerting downward
pressure on prices. Furthermore, subdued economic
growth worldwide has affected demand from the food and
oleochemical industries, and, at the same time, demand
from the biodiesel sector has reportedly weakened due to
reduced profitability and growing uncertainty about the
direction of future bio-energy policies.
Prices in the oilseed complex could ease further during
the remainder of the season, with 2012/13 closing stocks
and stock-to-use ratios for oils and meals anticipated
to improve, plus there are encouraging, though still
preliminary, crop forecasts for 2013/14. In addition, the
gradual softening in CBOT soybean futures prices, which,
since mid-March, have ranged below the corresponding
values of the last two years, seems to point in the same
direction.
OILSEEDS
Record 2012/13 production estimateGlobal oilseed production is forecast to rebound strongly
in 2012/13 – up 5 percent from last season’s depressed
outcome and 2 percent higher than the historic record
set in 2010/11. The rise is mainly due to the production
forecast for soybeans, now expected to climb to a record
266 million tonnes – 11 percent more than in 2011/12.
Soybean production gains are largely driven by expansion
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2010/11
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S O N D J F M A M
2011 values 2012 values 2013 values
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in area cultivated, given that, in several growing regions,
unfavourable weather conditions have affected yields. As
the season progressed, forecasts had to be successively
lowered due to extreme weather conditions, first in the
United States and then in some key production areas of
South America, in particular in Argentina. In the United
States, the crop suffered from an exceptional drought,
driving down production for the second consecutive year.
In Argentina, production prospects deteriorated as a result
of excessive rainfall towards the beginning of the growing
season. Despite spells of dry weather, Brazil and Paraguay
reported record harvests thanks to further expansion in
plantings and near-record yield levels. With the decline
in US production, Brazil’s output should – for the first
time – almost match that of the United States. Meanwhile,
in Asia, China has reported a further production drop,
due to additional cuts in area planted, whereas India has
harvested a bumper crop, thanks to a yield increase that
followed average rainfalls.
Record outputs are also expected for rapeseed,
groundnut and palmkernel. For rapeseed, production
declines – caused by bad weather in Canada and planting
reduction in Europe – should be more than offset by
production gains in India, China and the United States.
Higher global palmkernel production is largely based on
further expansion of mature oil palm area in Indonesia,
whereas the projected rise in groundnut mainly comes
from record yields in the United States and from higher
plantings combined with productivity increases in China.
By contrast, a noticeable production drop is forecast
for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. The projected decrease
in cottonseed output is mostly driven by lower plantings
2010/11 2011/12estim.
2012/13 f’cast
Change 2012/13
over 2011/12
%
million tonnes
Soybeans 265.4 239.8 266.0 10.9
Rapeseed 60.8 61.4 62.6 1.9
Cottonseed 44.1 46.5 44.4 -4.3
Groundnuts (unshelled)
37.3 37.3 38.7 3.8
Sunflower seed 33.0 39.0 35.6 -8.9
Palm kernels 12.6 13.3 13.8 4.1
Copra 4.9 5.4 5.3 -1.0
Total 458.1 442.7 466.4 5.4
Note: The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown. For tree crops, which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.
Table 1. World production of major oilseeds
Table 2. World oilseed and product market ata glance
1 Includes oils and fats of vegetable, animal and marin origin.2 Production plus opening stocks.3 Residual of the balance.4 Trade data refer to exports based on a common October/September
marketing season and relate to the sum of trade in oils (meals) plus the oil (meal) equivalent of oilcrops traded.
5 Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States.
6 All meal figures are expressed in protein equivalent; meals include all meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as meals of marine and animal origin.
7 Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay and the United States.
2010/11 2011/12 estim.
2012/13 f’cast
Change: 2012/13
over 2011/12
million tonnes %
TOTAL OILSEEDS
Production 468.9 453.6 477.5 5.3
OILS AND FATS1
Production 180.4 183.3 188.7 2.9
Supply2 208.0 214.5 220.3 2.7
Utilization3 176.0 184.7 188.4 2.0
Trade4 92.5 97.9 101.0 3.1
Stock-to-utilization ratio (%)
17.7 17.1 17.4
Major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio 5 (%)
11.2 10.1 10.0
MEALS AND CAKES6
Production 118.6 110.3 118.0 7.0
Supply2 137.5 131.6 134.8 2.5
Utilization3 114.1 117.1 115.9 -1.1
Trade4 69.6 72.6 72.9 0.4
Stock-to-utilization ratio (%)
18.7 14.4 15.5
Major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio 7 (%)
9.3 5.6 7.5
FAO PRICE INDICES (Oct/Sept) (2002-2004=100)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Oct-May
Change: Oct-May 2012/13
overOct-May 2011/12
%
Oilseeds 215 214 221 10.1
Meals/cakes 221 224 267 33.0
Oils/fats 256 232 202 -14.6
and yields in Brazil, India, Pakistan and Australia,
which are only partially offset by good harvests in China
and the United States. With regard to sunflowerseed,
less favourable weather in the Russian Federation and
the Ukraine prevented a repeat of last season’s bumper
crop.
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Figure 6. Global production and utilizationof oils/fats
OILS AND FATS3
Growth in global oils/fats supplies to remain below trendCurrent crop forecasts for 2012/13 translate into a year-
on-year increase of 3 percent in global oils/fats production.
Although above last season’s rate, the expected expansion
remains well below trend growth. The fact that much of
this year’s oilseed production rise comes from soybeans,
which is a low oil-yielding crop, together with the prospect
of only a moderate increase in palm oil production, explains
the relatively modest growth in global output. Palm oil
gains continue to be concentrated in Indonesia, thanks to
expansion in mature oil palm area. However, compared with
the past two years and given the absence of significant yield
improvements, Indonesian production growth is poised to
slow. In Malaysia, where unfavourable weather curtailed
output last year, production should rebound thanks to a
recovery in yields and small rises in mature area.
Global oils/fats supplies, which comprise 2012/13
production and 2011/12 ending stocks, are forecast to
increase by less than 3 percent. Commodity-wise, robust
growth in soy and palm oil supplies is to be partially offset
by a contraction in global rape, sunflower and olive oil.
Much of the projected rise in soyoil availabilities (referring
to oil obtained from domestic crops) is expected to occur
in Brazil, Argentina and China. Palm oil supply growth
remains concentrated in Indonesia and Malaysia, the
reduction in global rape oil availabilities originates in
Canada, and the fall in sunflower and olive oil supplies
concerns primarily the CIS region and the EU.
Oils/fats consumption growth to slow down in 2012/13Estimated at 188 million tonnes, global consumption of
oils/fats is predicted to expand by only 2 percent, compared
with an average growth rate of over 4 percent for the
last four years. The slowdown mainly reflects subdued
global economic growth as well as weak demand from the
biodiesel sector. The growth leader is palm oil, given its
competitive price relative to soy and other oils. With palm
oil demand expanding by a steady 5–6 percent per year,
its share of total oils/fats consumption is set to approach
30 percent in 2012/13. By contrast, consumption growth
should slow down in the case of soy and sunflower oil,
while an absolute fall is forecast for rapeseed oil.
Consumption growth occurs almost exclusively in
developing countries, in particular in Asia, where continued
3 This section refers to oils from all origins, which – in addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds – include palm oil, marine oils as well as animal fats.
economic growth keeps stimulating demand for food
and oleochemical products. The expansion of oils and fats
consumption is expected to concentrate in China, India
and Indonesia, partly reflecting national policy measures
in support of domestic crushing and refining industries.
In South America and Africa, consumption growth could
slow down relative to previous years. Meanwhile, among
developed nations, oils/fats consumption is bound to
stagnate due to poor economic growth.
Demand from the biodiesel industry will continue
contributing to global consumption growth, though
considerably less than before. Unlike past years, industrial
demand is expected to grow primarily among developing
nations, where biodiesel production capacities have
expanded and national policies continue to encourage
biofuel production for either domestic use or export.
Countries where biodiesel production should keep
expanding include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines,
with Paraguay, Honduras, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Cuba standing ready to join
the list of biodiesel producing countries. By contrast,
among developed countries – which include the world’s
leading biodiesel producers and consumers – oils/fats
demand for biofuel production is forecast to grow only
modestly. Several developed economies, notably within
the EU, are considering to cap mandatory blending
requirements and to limit subsidies granted to crop-based
or “first generation” biofuels, due to concerns over the
environmental footprint of such fuels. The exception is the
United States, where domestic consumption targets for
the current year have been raised and the tax break granted
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estim. f’cast
Balance (production minus utilization, right axis)
Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)
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Figure 7. World stocks and ratios of oils/fats (including the oil contained in seeds stored)
to blenders extended. The practice of producing biodiesel
from imported feedstock or directly importing biodiesel is
expected to continue in several developed countries.
2012/13 end-of-season stocks anticipated to rise Based on the above supply and demand forecasts, 2012/13
global closing stocks (which comprise oil/fat inventories
plus the oil contained in stored oilseeds) are anticipated
to rise to about 33 million tonnes, up almost 4 percent
from last season. The increase concerns primarily palm
oil and, to a lesser extent, soy and rapeseed oil, while a
sizeable reduction in inventories is anticipated for sunflower
and olive oil. With regard to individual countries, China
remains by far the largest stockholder. By the end of the
season, China’s private and public stocks, comprising the oil
contained in stored oilseeds, are expected to top 11 million
tonnes. As for other major importers, India’s inventories
should grow, whereas EU stocks are expected to drop
below the level of past years. Among exporters, Malaysia is set for a reduction in its record palm oil inventories,
while Indonesia is likely to expand its reserves. Among the
world’s leading soy exporters, the United States should
draw down inventories for the third consecutive year,
dragging them to the lowest level in nine years. National
stocks continue to be released to meet growing export
demand. The same situation applies to Canada regarding
rapeseed. By contrast, a replenishment of stocks should be
possible in Argentina and especially Brazil. Considering the relatively modest growth in world
oils/fats consumption currently anticipated, the global
stock-to-use ratio should improve slightly compared with
last season. This, in part, explains the recent easing of
international oils/fats prices.
Trade in oils/fats to expand further during 2012/13
After growing by 5 percent on average during the last
five years, global trade in oils/fats is forecast to expand in
2012/13 by 3 percent to 101 million tonnes (including the
oil contained in traded oilseeds). The slowdown mirrors
this season’s sluggish consumption growth. Shipments of
the two most traded oils, palm and soy, are estimated to
rise by, respectively, 8 and 5 percent, while global trade in
rape and sunflower oil should drop markedly – a pattern
that reflects the prevailing price structure. Concerning
exports, Indonesia and Malaysia are responsible for the
expansion in palm oil shipments. Incremental soyoil sales
should originate mainly in Argentina, where reduced
domestic demand from the biodiesel industry (caused by
lower EU biofuel imports) should raise export availabilities.
The prospective drop in world sales of rapeseed oil mainly
reflects Canada’s poor crop outturn, while the decline of
sunflower oil trade is related to poor harvests in various
parts of Europe, which have curbed export availability in the
region.
As for global oils/fats imports, the three leading buyers,
China, India and the EU, are forecast to expand their
purchases. In China, the increase in domestic supplies
is not sufficient to meet growing consumer demand,
which is expected to boost the country’s imports to a
record 23 million tonnes (including the oil equivalent
contained in oilseed purchases). China could also take
advantage of easing import prices to replenish domestic
stocks. In India, the stagnation in domestic supplies is
forecast to push imports above 11 million tonnes. In both
countries, reliance on foreign purchases to satisfy domestic
Figure 8. Oil/fat exports by major exporters (including the oil contained in seed exports)
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Major Exporters Rest of the World
World Stock-to-use ratioStock-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters
estim. f’cast
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2012/13 forecast
Million tonnes
UnitedStates
IndonesiaCanada MalaysiaArgentina Brazil
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Figure 10. Global production and utilization of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent)
demand is bound to rise further. Regarding other Asian
importers, a slowdown in domestic consumption growth
is anticipated to curb aggregate purchases. The EU’s
imports are expected to grow, even within the context of a
stagnating domestic consumption, as they will be needed
to compensate for the supply drawdown caused by poor
rapeseed harvests. In Africa, where numerous countries are
import-dependent, only a marginal increase in imports is
expected, mirroring subdued consumption growth.
MEALS AND CAKES4
Global meal supplies to recover only partially in 2012/13 Current crop estimates translate into a conspicuous year-
on-year rise in overall meals/cakes production. Estimated
at 118 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents),
global production should recover almost entirely from
last year’s decline, almost matching the 2010/11 record.
Soymeal will be the main source of growth, although
production of rapeseed, groundnut and palmkernel meal
would also improve. By contrast, production of sunflower
and cottonseed meal is likely to fall, following poor crop
outturns. The rise in total output concerns primarily
soymeal producing countries in South America, notably
Brazil, whereas sizeable year-on-year drops are expected
for some other major players, in particular the United States and the EU.
4 This section refers to meals from all origins. In addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds, this also includes fish meal and meals of animal origin.
Global supplies of meals/cakes, which comprise 2012/13
production plus 2011/12 ending stocks, are forecast to
grow by less than 3 percent. Due to last season’s sharp
drawdown in stocks, 2012/13 availabilities will only recover
partially from last season’s significant drop. In the United States, the world’s leading meal producer, domestic
availability is set to shrink for the second consecutive
season, pushing supplies to a multi-year low. While sizeable
supply drops are also expected in the EU and Canada,
global availability of meals/cakes will still increase, thanks
to massive improvements in Brazil, Argentina and
Paraguay.
Global meal consumption to contract slightly in 2012/13Persistently high meal/cake prices combined with weak
economic growth world-wide should lead to an unusual
contraction in global meal consumption, involving primarily
soybean meal. Estimated at 116 million tonnes (expressed
in protein equivalents), global utilization in 2012/13 will
still be the second highest on record. Consumption falls
are expected primarily in developed nations, whereas
developing countries are likely to face a slowdown in
growth. In Asia, the world’s major consuming region,
demand is estimated to increase by merely 1 percent,
which compares with an average of 8 percent in the
last three years. In China, utilization is forecast to grow
by no more than 2 percent, due to reduced growth in
meat production. In India, meal demand may fall by 2–3
percent. By contrast, across South America, the steep rise in
domestic availabilities should stimulate meal consumption.
As a whole, developing countries should account for over
60 percent of global utilization compared with 53 percent
Figure 9. Total oil/fat imports by region or major country (including the oil contained in seed imports)
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Asia excl. China (total) Europe
China (total)
Million tonnes
United States & Canada Africa
f’cast
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estim. f’cast
Balance (production minus utilization, right axis)
Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)
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Figure 11. World stocks and ratios of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seeds stored)
only five years ago. In many developed countries, high feed
costs eroded profitability in livestock production, eventually
driving down meal demand. In the EU and the United States, meal consumption is projected to contract by,
respectively, 4 and 9 percent, dragging meal utilization to
multi-year lows.
Partial recovery in meals/cakes inventories likelyThis season’s recovery in global production combined with
the slowdown in consumption should allow a rebuilding of
global meal/cake stocks. Led by soybeans, end-of-season
stocks are forecast to rise to 18 million tonnes (expressed in
protein equivalent and comprising meal contained in stored
oilseeds), up 6 percent from their opening level. Considering
that global stocks dropped by 21 percent last year, the
recovery expected for this year would only be a partial one. It
is important to note that, among key stockholding countries,
only Argentina and Brazil are expected to rebuild stocks. In
the United States, as the country strives to satisfy demands
of both domestic users and foreign buyers, inventory levels
are set to shrink for the second consecutive season, falling
to the lowest level in nine years. As to meal importing
countries, China and the EU are expected to cut down their
reserves for the second season in a row, reflecting efforts to
compensate for stagnating or falling imports.
If realized, the anticipated reconstitution in global stocks
would lead to an improvement in the global stock-to-use
ratio. However, the ratio would still remain well below the
level prevailing in past years, which explains the relative
firmness of international meal prices during the past
months.
Global meal trade unchanged from last season After years of steady expansion, the 2012/13 global
trade in meals/cakes is anticipated to remain mostly
unchanged. Higher soymeal shipments should be offset by
lower transactions of rape, sunflower and fish meal. The
stagnation in total trade is directly related to subdued meal
consumption in the world’s key importing countries. In
China, imports (comprising the meal contained in imported
seeds) should remain virtually unchanged, much in contrast
to the steady expansion observed in previous years. The
halt mainly reflects the unusual slowdown in domestic
meal consumption. The EU is expected to cut its imports
further, despite the anticipated drop in domestic supplies.
Figure 12. Meals/cake imports by region or major country (in protein equivalent and inclduing the meal contained in seed imports)
Figure 13. Meal/cake exports by major exporters (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed exports)
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Major Exporters Rest of the World
World Stock-to-use ratioStock-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters
estim. f’cast
0
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2012/132010/112008/092006/072004/05
Latin America Asia excl. China (total) Europe
China (total)
Million tonnes
United States & Canada Africa
f’cast
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2012/13 forecast
Million tonnes
UnitedStates
Canada India ParaguayArgentina Brazil
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For the developed country group, purchases could fall
below 25 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents),
a 3-year low, while developing country imports might reach
47 million tonnes, exceeding last year’s record by a small
margin. Clearly, the record high international meal prices
prevailing since the middle of 2012 have dampened the
global appetite for imported meals.
The bulk of the world’s export supplies continues to
come from the Americas. South America is expected to
expand its shipments by only 2 percent, which, considering
ample domestic availabilities, leaves sufficient room for the
reconstitution of national stocks. In Brazil, limitations in
domestic transport and port facilities are also behind the
country’s weak export performance. In the United States,
falling domestic supplies will force overseas sales down for
the third consecutive year.
2013/14 PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
With the 2012/13 season still on-going, it is too early to
provide supply and demand projections for 2013/14. The
only preliminary, though incomplete, information that can
be offered is based on planting intentions in the Northern
Hemisphere, where preparations for the next oilcrop
campaign are underway.
Although relatively firm world prices for oilseeds
should stimulate plantings of crops for harvest in 2013/14,
the competition for land remains strong due to the fact
that also prices of other crops, in particular maize, are
historically high. Accordingly, with regard to soybeans, in
the United States, only minimal expansion is expected
in area planted. Output is nonetheless projected to climb
to a new record, as yields are assumed to return to trend
levels. While production could also grow in India, a further
drop in output is expected in China, due to cuts in area
planted. In South America, a recovery in yields is expected
to boost Argentina’s output. In Brazil, persistently
high transportation costs are likely to continue weighing
on farmers’ returns, possibly limiting expansion in area
planted and, in turn, production gains. On the whole, a
steep rise in global soybean production seems possible,
provided normal weather conditions prevail. A similar
picture is emerging for rapeseed production. A return to
average yields should lift Canada’s harvest to near-record
levels, despite a likely reduction in planted area in favour
of wheat. In the EU, production is anticipated to rise on
account of higher plantings, provided weather conditions
continue to be favourable. Conversely, China’s production
is forecast to drop as farmers increase plantings of wheat
and other grains at the expense of rapeseed. By contrast,
global sunflowerseed output should recover only partially
from last season’s drop. Production gains would be led
by the EU and Ukraine, mostly based on a recovery in
yields. World cottonseed production is forecast to remain
unchanged from last season, with reduced crops in China
and the United States offsetting larger harvests in Brazil and India. Aggregate groundnut output is projected to fall,
mainly reflecting likely reductions in planted area and yields
in the United States.
Together, the above tentative forecasts point to
a conspicuous increase in total oilseed production in
2013/14, led by soybean production gains in the United States and Argentina. As the anticipated production may
outstrip consumption, the current supply and demand
tightness could come to an end. This would mean that
during 2013/14, the United States, Canada, the EU and
China will be in a position to reconstitute their inventories,
further improving the stock-to-use ratios and, potentially,
facilitating a general easing of international prices for
oilseeds and oilseed products.
Ma
jor p
olicy d
eve
lop
me
nts
Ma
jor p
olicy d
eve
lop
me
nts
799
OIL
SEED
S:
MA
JOR
POLI
CY D
EVEL
OPM
ENTS
: APR
IL 2
012
- MA
RCH
201
3*C
OU
NTR
YPR
OD
UC
TD
ATE
POLI
CY
CA
TEG
OR
Y/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Alg
eria
Soym
eal
Oct
-12
Imp
ort
po
licy
Tem
po
rari
ly s
usp
end
ed im
po
rt d
uti
es o
n s
oym
eal (
and
oth
er f
eed
stu
ff)
to c
on
tain
co
sts
for
do
mes
tic
lives
tock
in
du
stry
an
d t
hu
s ch
eck
rise
s in
loca
l ret
ail p
rice
s.
Arg
enti
na
Bio
die
sel
Ap
r-12
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
Post
po
ned
th
e in
crea
se in
man
dat
ory
bio
die
sel b
len
din
g (
fro
m B
7 to
B10
) to
201
3.
Ara
ble
lan
dM
ay-1
2La
nd
tax
atio
nC
arri
ed o
ut
reva
luat
ion
of
agri
cult
ura
l lan
d w
ith
a v
iew
to
rai
se r
eal e
stat
e ta
xati
on
.
Soyb
ean
Au
g-1
2Im
po
rt p
olic
yTe
mp
ora
rily
allo
wed
so
ybea
n im
po
rts
to a
dd
ress
pro
ble
ms
of
exce
ss c
apac
ity
in d
om
esti
c cr
ush
ing
.
Bio
die
sel
Au
g-1
2Tr
ade
po
licy
File
d a
co
mp
lain
t at
th
e W
TO a
gai
nst
th
e EU
ove
r Sp
ain
’s b
iofu
el im
po
rt p
olic
y (l
ater
pu
t o
n h
old
as
Spai
n
amen
ded
its
imp
ort
reg
ula
tio
ns,
res
tori
ng
acc
ess
to t
he
loca
l bio
fuel
s m
arke
t).
Soyb
ean
Oct
-12
Mar
ket
con
tro
lPe
nal
ized
lead
ing
gra
in fi
rms
du
rin
g in
vest
igat
ion
s in
to a
lleg
ed e
xpo
rt t
ax e
vasi
on
.
Bio
fuel
Oct
-12
Exp
ort
po
licy
Ad
just
ed le
vel o
f ex
po
rt t
ax a
nd
of
do
mes
tic
reta
il p
rice
fo
r so
yoil-
bas
ed d
iese
l wit
h a
vie
w t
o s
tim
ula
te
do
mes
tic
bio
die
sel c
on
sum
pti
on
, wh
ile a
t th
e sa
me
tim
e g
uar
ante
ein
g a
deq
uat
e m
arg
ins
for
exp
ort
-ori
ente
d
pro
cess
ors
.
Veg
etab
le
oils
Jan
-13
Imp
ort
po
licy
Tem
po
rari
ly r
aise
d im
po
rt t
arif
fs a
bo
ve M
ERC
OSU
R's
co
mm
on
ext
ern
al t
arif
f.
Au
stra
liaB
iofu
elM
ay-1
2R
enew
able
en
erg
y p
olic
yG
ran
ted
fed
eral
tax
exe
mp
tio
ns
plu
s fi
nan
cial
ass
ista
nce
fro
m s
tate
go
vern
men
ts t
o b
iofu
el c
om
pan
ies.
Ban
gla
des
hPa
lm o
ilA
ug
-12
Imp
ort
po
licy/
mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nSt
arte
d r
egu
lar
imp
ort
s b
y st
ate
agen
cy t
o g
uar
ante
e d
om
esti
c su
pp
lies
and
sta
bili
ze p
rice
s.
Can
ada
Soyb
ean
May
-12
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceSu
pp
ort
ed d
iver
sifi
cati
on
of
soyb
ean
mar
keti
ng
to
tap
into
new
exp
ort
an
d d
om
esti
c m
arke
ts.
Rap
esee
dO
ct-1
2Se
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t as
sist
ance
Sup
po
rted
R&
D p
roje
cts
to s
ecu
re c
on
tin
ued
gro
wth
in t
he
sect
or.
Bra
ssic
a ca
rin
ata
oil
No
v-12
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
Bac
ked
res
earc
h o
n in
du
stri
al a
pp
licat
ion
s o
f ca
rin
ata
oil,
incl
ud
ing
as
avia
tio
n b
iofu
el.
Gra
ins
and
o
ilsee
ds
Feb
-13
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceLa
un
ched
, to
get
her
wit
h c
on
cern
ed p
riva
te s
ecto
r b
od
ies,
vo
lun
tary
sta
nd
ard
s to
co
ntr
ol m
ajo
r p
lan
t p
ests
an
d
dis
ease
s in
gra
in a
nd
oils
eed
cu
ltiv
atio
n.
Rap
esee
d,
soyb
ean
, su
nfl
ow
er
seed
Feb
-13
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceR
aise
d c
ove
rag
e an
d a
reas
incl
ud
ed u
nd
er t
he
cro
p in
sura
nce
pro
gra
mm
e o
f M
anit
ob
a p
rovi
nce
; ad
ded
so
ybea
n a
nd
su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
cro
ps.
Bio
fuel
Feb
-13
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
An
no
un
ced
ph
asin
g o
ut
of
bio
fuel
pro
du
ctio
n s
ub
sid
ies
by
2017
– d
raw
ing
att
enti
on
to
th
e b
iod
iese
l in
du
stry
's
inab
ility
to
mee
t th
e n
atio
nal
ble
nd
ing
tar
get
– b
ut
com
mit
ted
to
co
nti
nu
e su
pp
ort
ing
th
e d
evel
op
men
t o
f se
con
d g
ener
atio
n b
iofu
els.
Rap
esee
d
and
oth
er
agri
cult
ura
l co
mm
od
itie
s
Mar
-13
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceLa
un
ched
th
ree
sup
po
rt p
rog
ram
mes
fo
cusi
ng
on
th
e ad
apta
tio
n t
o e
mer
gin
g m
arke
t o
pp
ort
un
itie
s,
com
mer
cial
izat
ion
of
new
pro
du
cts
and
tec
hn
olo
gie
s, a
nd
im
pro
ved
fo
od
saf
ety
and
tra
ceab
ility
.
Foo
d O
utl
oo
k -
Jun
e 2
01
3Fo
od
Ou
tlo
ok
- Ju
ne
20
13
808
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y C
ATE
GO
RY
/INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Ch
ina
Edib
le o
ilsA
ug
-12
Mar
ket
con
tro
lA
sked
to
p e
dib
le o
il p
rod
uce
rs t
o r
egu
larl
y re
po
rt t
hei
r ra
w m
ater
ial,
wh
ole
sale
an
d r
etai
l pri
ces,
th
us
clo
sely
m
on
ito
rin
g p
rice
tre
nd
s an
d in
flat
ion
ris
ks.
Rap
esee
d
soyb
ean
2012
cro
p
year
Stat
e re
serv
esR
aise
d s
tate
pro
cure
men
t p
rice
fo
r ra
pes
eed
an
d s
oyb
ean
to
mai
nta
in in
cen
tive
s fo
r d
om
esti
c p
rod
uct
ion
.
Soyb
ean
Oct
-12
GM
O p
olic
ies
and
reg
ula
tio
ns
Del
ayed
imp
ort
ap
pro
val f
or
seco
nd
gen
erat
ion
GM
so
y va
riet
y m
ean
t fo
r d
irec
t h
um
an c
on
sum
pti
on
.
Veg
etab
le o
ilsD
ec-1
2Im
po
rt/e
xpo
rt p
olic
yLo
wer
ed a
dm
inis
trat
ive
cust
om
fee
s fo
r ex
po
rts
and
imp
ort
s to
sti
mu
late
tra
de
gro
wth
.
Rap
esee
dD
ec-1
2M
arke
t re
gu
lati
on
Enco
ura
ged
fu
ture
s tr
adin
g in
rap
esee
d a
nd
rap
esee
d m
eal (
in a
dd
itio
n t
o r
apes
eed
oil)
.
Soyb
ean
, so
yoil
Ap
r to
No
v 20
12St
ate
rese
rves
Rel
ease
d s
tate
res
erve
s w
ith
a v
iew
to
eas
e su
pp
ly t
igh
tnes
s, t
hu
s ch
ecki
ng
th
e ri
se in
do
mes
tic
oil/
mea
l pri
ces.
Veg
etab
le o
ilsJa
n-1
3Q
ual
ity
stan
dar
ds
Intr
od
uce
d s
tric
ter
qu
alit
y co
ntr
ols
on
ed
ible
oil
imp
ort
s to
gu
aran
tee
pro
du
ct s
afet
y.
Rap
esee
dFe
b-1
3Im
po
rt p
olic
yR
elax
ed 3
-yea
r o
ld b
an o
n r
apes
eed
imp
ort
s fr
om
Au
stra
lia.
Gra
ins
Feb
-13
Pro
du
ctio
n s
up
po
rtR
enew
ed c
om
mit
men
t to
rea
ch s
elf-
suffi
cien
cy in
gra
ins
as
a m
ean
s to
tac
kle
rura
l po
vert
y an
d f
oo
d in
secu
rity
n
ot
exte
nd
ed t
o o
ilsee
ds.
Rap
esee
dFe
b-1
3Im
po
rt r
estr
icti
on
sC
on
sid
ered
rem
ova
l of
rem
ain
ing
imp
ort
res
tric
tio
ns
for
rap
esee
d (
intr
od
uce
d in
200
9 o
n p
hyt
osa
nit
ary
gro
un
ds)
.
Soyb
ean
, ra
pes
eed
oil
Feb
-13
Stat
e re
serv
esR
elea
sed
sta
te r
eser
ves
to e
ase
do
mes
tic
sup
ply
tig
htn
ess
and
sta
bili
ze d
om
esti
c p
rice
s.
Ch
ina/
Sri L
anka
Co
con
ut
pro
du
cts
Dec
-12
Sou
th-S
ou
th c
oo
per
atio
nC
hin
a ag
reed
to
hel
p d
evel
op
th
e co
con
ut
ind
ust
ry in
Sri
Lan
ka, t
o e
nh
ance
exp
ort
atio
n o
f co
con
ut-
bas
ed
pro
du
cts
to C
hin
a.
Co
lom
bia
Soyb
ean
, so
y m
eal,
soyo
ilA
pr-
12B
ilate
ral t
rad
eSi
gn
ed t
rad
e ag
reem
ent
wit
h t
he
Un
ited
Sta
tes,
allo
win
g im
pro
ved
acc
ess
for
US
soyb
ean
pro
du
cts
to t
he
loca
l m
arke
t.
Cu
ba
(Rep
ub
lic o
f)B
iod
iese
lFe
b-1
3R
enew
able
en
erg
y p
olic
y Pr
om
ote
d t
he
esta
blis
hm
ent
of
a n
atio
nal
bio
die
sel i
nd
ust
ry b
ased
on
loca
lly p
rod
uce
d ja
tro
ph
a o
il.
Den
mar
kO
ils a
nd
fat
sN
ov-
12H
ealt
h p
olic
yR
epea
led
on
e-ye
ar o
ld t
ax o
n f
at c
on
sum
pti
on
as
it d
id n
ot
pro
du
ce t
he
chan
ges
so
ug
ht.
Eura
sian
Eco
no
mic
C
om
mu
nit
y (B
elar
us,
K
azak
hst
an,
Kyr
gys
tan
, R
uss
ia, T
ajik
ista
n,
Uzb
ekis
tan
)
Edib
le o
ilsA
pr-
12Im
po
rt p
olic
yEx
ten
ded
imp
ort
du
ty a
pp
lied
to
tro
pic
al v
eget
able
oils
.
Euro
pea
n U
nio
n
Bu
tter
, oliv
e o
ilM
ar-1
2St
ora
ge
aid
Ag
reed
to
pro
vid
e te
mp
ora
ry s
up
po
rt t
o p
riva
te s
tora
ge
of
bu
tter
an
d o
live
oil
to a
dd
ress
sh
ort
-ter
m
mar
keti
ng
pro
ble
ms.
GM
cro
ps
Oct
-12
GM
O p
olic
ies
and
reg
ula
tio
ns
Dec
lare
d il
leg
itim
ate
the
nat
ion
al b
ans
on
GM
cu
ltiv
atio
n in
tro
du
ced
by
sin
gle
mem
ber
Sta
tes
on
to
p o
f t
he
pro
ced
ure
s an
d r
egu
lati
on
s es
tab
lish
ed b
y th
e Eu
rop
ean
Fo
od
Saf
ety
Au
tho
rity
.
Firs
t-g
ener
atio
n
bio
fuel
s
Oct
-12
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
Pro
po
sed
to
lim
it c
on
trib
uti
on
of
firs
t-g
ener
atio
n b
iofu
els
to t
he
EU t
ran
spo
rt f
uel
co
nsu
mp
tio
n t
arg
et a
t 5
per
cen
t b
y 20
20, i
n a
n e
ffo
rt t
o m
inim
ize
adve
rse
effe
cts
on
clim
ate
and
glo
bal
fo
od
pro
du
ctio
n.
Oils
eed
sO
ct-1
2M
arke
t re
gu
lati
on
Co
nsi
der
ed m
ean
s to
co
ntr
ol e
xces
sive
sp
ecu
lati
on
in c
om
mo
dit
ies
futu
res
trad
ing
, in
par
ticu
lar
in f
oo
d-r
elat
ed
com
mo
dit
ies.
Oliv
e o
ilN
ov-
12M
arke
t re
gu
lati
on
Co
nsi
der
ed c
han
ges
to
th
e EU
's o
live
oil
mar
keti
ng
reg
ime,
fo
cusi
ng
on
incr
ease
d q
ual
ity
con
tro
ls a
nd
a
po
ssib
le in
crea
se in
th
e tr
igg
er p
rice
fo
r p
riva
te s
tora
ge
aid
.
Bio
die
sel
Jan
-13
Imp
ort
po
licy
Intr
od
uce
d m
and
ato
ry r
egis
trat
ion
of
bio
die
sel i
mp
ort
s o
rig
inat
ing
fro
m A
rgen
tin
a an
d In
do
nes
ia in
th
e co
nte
xt o
f an
ti-d
um
pin
g/a
nti
-su
bsi
dy
inve
stig
atio
ns.
Fiji
Co
con
ut
Feb
-13
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceSu
pp
ort
ed c
oco
nu
t in
du
stry
reh
abili
tati
on
th
rou
gh
en
cou
rag
emen
t o
f p
lan
tin
g/r
epla
nti
ng
act
ivit
ies
usi
ng
im
pro
ved
see
dlin
gs.
Ma
jor p
olicy d
eve
lop
me
nts
Ma
jor p
olicy d
eve
lop
me
nts
811
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y C
ATE
GO
RY
/INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Ind
ia
Oils
eed
sJu
n a
nd
N
ov
2012
Fa
rm s
up
po
rt p
rice
sSi
gn
ifica
ntl
y ra
ised
min
imu
m s
up
po
rt p
rice
s fo
r su
mm
er (
khar
if)
as w
ell a
s w
inte
r (r
abi)
oilc
rop
s in
an
eff
ort
to
st
imu
late
do
mes
tic
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
slo
w im
po
rt g
row
th.
Refi
ned
pal
m
oil
Au
g-1
2Im
po
rt p
olic
yC
han
ged
met
ho
d f
or
calc
ula
tin
g t
he
bas
e im
po
rt p
rice
fo
r re
fin
ed p
alm
ole
in, n
ow
to
be
bas
ed o
n it
s ac
tual
va
lue,
th
ereb
y d
ou
blin
g t
he
leve
l of
du
ties
co
llect
ed. M
ove
aim
s to
pro
tect
do
mes
tic
refi
ner
s fr
om
low
pri
ced
im
po
rts.
Oilm
eals
Au
g-1
2Im
po
rt p
olic
ySu
spen
ded
du
ties
on
oilm
eal i
mp
ort
s o
n c
on
cern
s o
ver
ren
ewed
fo
od
pri
ce in
flat
ion
. Als
o c
on
sid
ered
a
tem
po
rary
ban
on
oilm
eal e
xpo
rts.
Oils
eed
sO
ct-1
2Se
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t as
sist
ance
Mea
sure
s to
rai
se n
atio
nal
oils
eed
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
en
han
ce o
il p
alm
cu
ltiv
atio
n in
clu
ded
in 1
2th
Fiv
e-Y
ear-
Plan
(2
012-
2017
).
Oliv
e o
ilO
ct-1
2Pr
od
uct
ion
su
pp
ort
Sup
po
rted
eff
ort
s to
lau
nch
do
mes
tic
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
co
nsu
mp
tio
n o
f o
live
oil.
Edib
le o
ils,
oils
eed
sO
ct-1
2C
on
sum
er p
rote
ctio
nEx
ten
ded
, un
til e
nd
Sep
tem
ber
201
3, n
atio
nw
ide
dis
trib
uti
on
of
imp
ort
ed e
dib
le o
ils a
t su
bsi
diz
ed p
rice
an
d
per
mis
sio
n t
o im
po
se li
mit
s fo
r p
riva
te s
tock
ho
ldin
g.
Edib
le o
ilsO
ct-1
2 an
d
Jan
-13
Exp
ort
po
licy
Lib
eral
ized
exp
ort
atio
n o
f ed
ible
oils
in b
ran
ded
co
nsu
mer
pac
ks, t
ho
ug
h s
etti
ng
a fi
xed
min
imu
m e
xpo
rt
pri
ce.
Veg
etab
le o
ilO
ct-1
2 to
M
ar-1
3Im
po
rt p
olic
yC
on
tin
uo
usl
y ad
just
ed r
efer
ence
pri
ces
use
d f
or
calc
ula
tin
g im
po
rt le
vies
, so
as
to p
re-e
mp
t u
nd
er-i
nvo
icin
g b
y tr
ader
s.
Cru
de
veg
etab
le o
ilsJa
n-1
3Im
po
rt p
olic
yR
ein
stat
ed im
po
rt d
uti
es o
n c
rud
e ve
get
able
oils
an
d c
han
ged
met
ho
d f
or
calc
ula
tin
g t
he
bas
e im
po
rt p
rice
fo
r cr
ud
e p
alm
oil
and
so
yoil,
no
w t
o b
e b
ased
on
th
eir
actu
al v
alu
e, t
her
eby
do
ub
ling
th
e le
vel o
f d
uti
es
colle
cted
. Mo
ve a
ims
to p
rote
ct f
arm
ers
and
en
cou
rag
e d
om
esti
c p
rod
uct
ion
.
Co
pra
Feb
-13
Mar
keti
ng
su
pp
ort
M
arke
tin
g a
ssis
tan
ce p
rovi
ded
to
sm
all c
oco
nu
t p
rod
uce
rs in
Tam
il N
adu
sta
te.
Ind
on
esia
Bio
fuel
Ap
r-12
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
Man
dat
ed 2
per
cen
t sh
are
of
loca
lly p
rod
uce
d (
pal
m o
il-b
ased
) b
iod
iese
l in
to
tal d
om
esti
c fu
el c
on
sum
pti
on
.
Palm
Oil
Ap
r-12
to
M
ar-1
3Ex
po
rt p
olic
yLe
ft in
pla
ce s
lidin
g e
xpo
rt t
ax r
egim
e u
sed
to
pre
ven
t h
ikes
in c
on
sum
er p
rice
s (v
ia r
egu
lati
on
of
do
mes
tic
sup
plie
s) a
nd
to
sti
mu
late
gro
wth
in d
ow
nst
ream
pal
m o
il p
roce
ssin
g.
Soyb
ean
Au
g t
o D
ec
2012
Imp
ort
po
licy
Tem
po
rari
ly s
usp
end
ed im
po
rt t
ax o
n s
oyb
ean
s to
bri
ng
do
wn
do
mes
tic
pri
ces
for
soy
foo
d p
rod
uct
s.
Oil
pal
m
Au
g-1
2In
du
stry
su
pp
ort
B
arre
d p
alm
oil
pla
nta
tio
ns
fro
m u
sin
g s
tate
su
bsi
diz
ed p
etro
l.
Soyb
ean
Oct
-12
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
n /
stat
e re
serv
esC
on
sid
ered
to
est
ablis
h, f
or
soyb
ean
s, s
tate
res
erve
s to
get
her
wit
h fi
xed
pro
cure
men
t an
d s
ale
pri
ces,
aim
ing
at
bo
th c
on
sum
er p
rote
ctio
n a
nd
sti
mu
lati
on
of
do
mes
tic
pro
du
ctio
n.
Oil
pal
m
Oct
-12
Envi
ron
men
tal
Rev
oke
d lo
gg
ing
per
mit
of
on
e o
il p
alm
co
mp
any
for
infr
ing
ing
en
viro
nm
enta
l reg
ula
tio
ns.
Bio
die
sel
Jan
-13
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
Rai
sed
go
vern
men
t-se
t p
rice
fo
r p
alm
oil-
bas
ed b
iod
iese
l to
fu
rth
er s
tim
ula
te d
om
esti
c p
rod
uct
ion
.
Soyb
ean
Feb
-13
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
n /
stat
e re
serv
es
Rei
tera
ted
pla
n t
o s
et u
p p
ub
lic r
eser
ves
of
soyb
ean
s w
ith
a v
iew
to
reg
ula
te d
om
esti
c su
pp
lies
and
sta
bili
ze
con
sum
er p
rice
s; a
lso
co
nsi
der
ed r
equ
irin
g t
rad
ers
to m
atch
so
ybea
n im
po
rts
wit
h p
urc
has
es f
rom
loca
l so
urc
es, s
o a
s to
sti
mu
late
do
mes
tic
pro
du
ctio
n.
Co
con
ut
Feb
-13
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceLa
un
ched
new
pu
blic
-pri
vate
par
tner
ship
to
str
eng
then
sm
allh
old
er c
oco
nu
t fa
rmin
g, s
o a
s to
en
han
ce t
he
sect
or'
s su
stai
nab
ility
an
d im
pro
ve li
velih
oo
d o
f sm
all c
oco
nu
t fa
rmer
s.
Iran
, Isl
amic
R
epu
blic
of
Stap
le f
oo
ds
Feb
-13
Co
nsu
mer
su
pp
ort
Eng
aged
in d
iscu
ssio
ns
abo
ut
a p
lan
to
pro
vid
e su
bsi
diz
ed s
tap
le f
oo
ds
(in
clu
din
g r
ice,
veg
etab
le o
il an
d m
eat)
to
th
e n
atio
n’s
mo
st v
uln
erab
le g
rou
ps.
Bio
die
sel
Feb
-13
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
Pro
mo
ted
th
e es
tab
lish
men
t o
f a
nat
ion
al b
iod
iese
l in
du
stry
, bas
ed o
n lo
cally
pro
du
ced
jatr
op
ha
oil
and
fo
od
p
roce
ssin
g w
aste
s.
Ko
rea,
Rep
ub
lic
of
Soyb
ean
, so
y m
eal,
soyo
ilA
pr-
12B
ilate
ral t
rad
e Si
gn
ed t
rad
e ag
reem
ent
wit
h t
he
Un
ited
Sta
tes,
allo
win
g im
pro
ved
acc
ess
for
US
soyb
ean
pro
du
cts
to t
he
Ko
rean
mar
ket.
Foo
d O
utl
oo
k -
Jun
e 2
01
3Fo
od
Ou
tlo
ok
- Ju
ne
20
13
828
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y C
ATE
GO
RY
/INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Mal
aysi
a
Palm
Oil
Au
g-1
2M
arke
t re
gu
lati
on
/ ex
po
rt p
olic
yR
aise
d d
uty
fre
e ex
po
rt q
uo
ta f
or
cru
de
pal
m o
il w
ith
a v
iew
to
ch
eck
bu
ild-u
p in
do
mes
tic
sto
cks
and
su
pp
ort
fa
rmg
ate
pri
ces.
Palm
Oil
Oct
-12
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
n /
exp
ort
po
licy
Dis
con
tin
ued
du
ty f
ree
exp
ort
qu
ota
s fo
r cr
ud
e p
alm
oil
wit
h a
vie
w t
o s
ecu
re a
deq
uat
e su
pp
lies
for
refi
ner
s.
Palm
oil
Oct
-12
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
n /
exp
ort
po
licy
Low
ered
exp
ort
tax
on
cru
de
pal
m o
il to
ch
eck
bu
ild-u
p in
do
mes
tic
sto
cks,
wh
ich
pu
sh d
ow
n f
arm
gat
e p
rice
s,
and
intr
od
uce
d s
lidin
g t
ax r
egim
e w
her
e le
vel o
f ta
xati
on
fo
llow
s th
e p
reva
ilin
g m
arke
t p
rice
.
Palm
Oil
Oct
-12
Pro
du
ctio
n s
up
po
rtLa
un
ched
new
oil
pal
m r
epla
nti
ng
sch
eme
wit
h t
he
imm
edia
te o
bje
ctiv
e o
f h
alti
ng
th
e ri
se in
do
mes
tic
pal
m
oil
sto
cks
and
th
e lo
ng
er t
erm
go
al o
f ra
isin
g t
he
aver
age
leve
l of
pro
du
ctiv
ity.
Palm
Oil
Oct
-12
Envi
ron
men
tal p
olic
yEn
forc
ed e
nvi
ron
men
tal l
aws
reg
ard
ing
po
lluti
on
co
ntr
ol i
n p
alm
oil
mill
s.
Palm
Oil
No
v-12
Pro
du
ctio
n p
olic
yLa
un
ched
new
oil
pal
m r
epla
nti
ng
sch
eme
wit
h t
he
imm
edia
te o
bje
ctiv
e o
f h
alti
ng
th
e ri
se in
do
mes
tic
pal
m
oil
sto
cks
and
th
e lo
ng
er t
erm
go
al o
f ra
isin
g t
he
aver
age
leve
l of
pro
du
ctiv
ity.
Palm
oil
No
v-12
to
M
ar-1
3Ex
po
rt p
olic
yPe
rio
dic
ally
ad
just
ed e
xpo
rt t
axes
in li
ne
wit
h t
he
new
ly in
tro
du
ced
slid
ing
tax
reg
ime.
Bio
fuel
Jan
-13
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
Mo
ved
to
nat
ion
wid
e im
ple
men
tati
on
of
5 p
erce
nt
man
dat
ory
fu
el b
len
din
g r
ate
(pal
m o
il-b
ased
bio
die
sel)
an
d c
on
sid
ered
intr
od
uci
ng
10
per
cen
t ra
te b
y en
d 2
013.
Bio
die
sel
Feb
-13
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
An
no
un
ced
pla
ns
to s
hif
t to
10
per
cen
t m
and
ato
ry b
len
din
g b
y m
id-2
014,
wit
h a
im t
o p
urs
ue
envi
ron
men
tal
ob
ject
ives
an
d in
crea
se d
om
esti
c p
alm
oil
con
sum
pti
on
, th
us
con
trib
uti
ng
to
pri
ce s
tab
iliza
tio
n.
Palm
oil
Feb
-13
Envi
ron
men
tal p
olic
ySu
pp
ort
ed t
he
lau
nch
of
two
nat
ion
al s
chem
es f
or
the
cert
ifica
tio
n o
f su
stai
nab
ly p
rod
uce
d p
alm
oil.
Mex
ico
Oils
an
d f
ats
Oct
-12
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nLo
wer
ed t
arif
fs o
n c
rud
e an
d r
efin
ed v
eget
able
/an
imal
oils
an
d f
ats
in a
n e
ffo
rt t
o c
on
tro
l do
mes
tic
foo
d p
rice
in
flat
ion
.
New
Zea
lan
dB
iofu
elO
ct-1
2R
enew
able
en
erg
y p
olic
yA
llow
ed g
ove
rnm
ent
pro
gra
mm
e in
su
pp
ort
of
bio
die
sel p
rod
uct
ion
, in
clu
din
g in
vest
men
t ai
ds
and
su
bsi
diz
ed
sale
s o
f d
om
esti
cally
pro
du
ced
bio
die
sel,
to e
xpir
e w
ith
ou
t re
new
al.
Paki
stan
Sun
flo
wer
No
v-12
Sup
po
rt p
rice
Rai
sed
pu
rch
ase
pri
ce o
f su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
wit
h a
vie
w t
o s
tim
ula
te d
om
esti
c p
rod
uct
ion
gro
wth
.
Para
gu
aySo
ybea
nN
ov-
12Ex
po
rt p
olic
yC
on
sid
ered
tax
ing
exp
ort
s o
f so
ybea
ns
wit
h a
vie
w t
o e
nco
ura
ge
ship
men
t o
f va
lue-
add
ed s
oyo
il an
d s
oym
eal.
Peru
Fish
mea
l an
d
oil
Dec
-12
Res
ou
rce
man
agem
ent
Cu
t th
e ca
tch
qu
ota
cu
t fo
r th
e ke
y fi
shin
g m
on
ths
of
Dec
emb
er-J
anu
ary
2012
/13
to a
llow
rep
op
ula
tio
n, t
hu
s re
du
cin
g e
xpo
rt a
vaila
bili
ties
.
Phili
pp
ines
Co
con
ut
Feb
-13
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceLa
un
ched
new
pu
blic
-pri
vate
par
tner
ship
to
str
eng
then
sm
allh
old
er c
oco
nu
t fa
rmin
g, a
imin
g a
t th
e d
evel
op
men
t o
f a
sust
ain
able
cer
tifi
ed c
oco
nu
t o
il su
pp
ly c
hai
n.
Serb
iaSo
ybea
n,
sun
flo
wer
Oct
-12
Emer
gen
cy r
elie
f In
tro
du
ced
tem
po
rary
exp
ort
lim
itat
ion
s fo
r so
ybea
n a
nd
su
nfl
ow
er a
nd
pro
vid
ed fi
nan
cial
ass
ista
nce
to
fa
rmer
s af
ter
dro
ug
ht
dec
imat
ed d
om
esti
c cr
op
s.
Ru
ssia
n
Fed
erat
ion
Soyb
ean
Ap
r to
Au
g
2012
Exp
ort
po
licy
Tem
po
rari
ly lo
wer
ed e
xpo
rt d
uty
on
so
ybea
ns
to f
acili
tate
exp
ort
atio
n f
ollo
win
g a
bu
mp
er c
rop
.
Sau
di A
rab
iaB
iod
iese
lFe
b-1
3R
enew
able
en
erg
y p
olic
y En
do
rsed
est
ablis
hm
ent
of
a n
atio
nal
bio
die
sel i
nd
ust
ry u
sin
g u
sed
co
oki
ng
oil
as f
eed
sto
ck.
Tan
zan
iaO
il p
alm
A
ug
-12
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceR
enew
ed c
om
mit
men
t to
su
pp
ort
th
e d
evel
op
men
t o
f th
e o
il p
alm
sec
tor.
Thai
lan
d
Palm
oil
Ap
r to
May
20
12C
on
sum
er p
rote
ctio
nEn
forc
ed r
etai
l pri
ce c
ap a
nd
ho
ard
ing
pro
hib
itio
n f
or
pal
m o
il to
pro
tect
co
nsu
mer
s, a
nd
intr
od
uce
d a
te
mp
ora
ry t
ax o
n p
alm
oil
exp
ort
s to
pre
ven
t sh
ort
ages
in d
om
esti
c su
pp
lies.
Co
con
ut
No
v-12
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
ceIs
sued
5-y
ear
acti
on
pla
n f
or
the
dev
elo
pm
ent
of
nat
ion
al c
oco
nu
t p
rod
uct
ion
.
Bio
fuel
No
v-12
Bio
fuel
reg
ula
tio
nR
aise
d m
and
ato
ry f
uel
ble
nd
ing
rat
e (w
ith
pal
m o
il-b
ased
bio
die
sel)
to
5 p
erce
nt.
Palm
oil
Dec
-12
Pro
du
cer
sup
po
rt /
con
sum
er p
rote
ctio
nEs
tab
lish
ed a
min
imu
m p
rice
ran
ge
for
oil
pal
m f
ruit
pu
rch
ases
by
pal
m o
il fa
cto
ries
so
as
to p
rote
ct f
arm
ers,
ev
entu
ally
sec
uri
ng
do
mes
tic
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
pre
ven
tin
g s
urg
es in
co
nsu
mer
pri
ces.
Palm
oil
Jan
-13
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nA
ccep
ted
to
tak
e p
alm
oil
into
pu
blic
sto
ck t
o s
tem
a f
all i
n f
arm
gat
e p
rice
.
Ma
jor p
olicy d
eve
lop
me
nts
Ma
jor p
olicy d
eve
lop
me
nts
833
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y C
ATE
GO
RY
/INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Ukr
ain
e
Soyb
ean
sO
ct-1
2Ex
po
rt p
olic
ySo
ug
ht
acce
ss t
o C
hin
ese
soyb
ean
imp
ort
mar
ket
un
der
go
vern
men
t-to
-go
vern
men
t lo
an-f
or-
cro
p d
eal.
Sun
flo
wer
Feb
-13
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nA
dju
sted
do
wn
war
d t
he
min
imu
m p
rice
s o
f su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
, oil
and
mea
l to
refl
ect
wea
ken
ing
do
mes
tic
mar
ket
pri
ces.
Soyb
ean
Feb
-13
Pro
du
ctio
n s
up
po
rtEx
ten
ded
su
bsi
diz
atio
n o
f cr
op
insu
ran
ce t
o m
aize
, so
ybea
n a
nd
su
gar
bee
t.
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Soyb
ean
, so
y m
eal,
soyo
ilA
pr-
12B
ilate
ral t
rad
eSi
gn
ed t
rad
e ag
reem
ent
wit
h C
olo
mb
ia, s
ecu
rin
g im
pro
ved
acc
ess
for
soyb
ean
pro
du
cts
to t
he
Co
lom
bia
n
mar
ket.
Soyb
ean
, so
y m
eal,
soyo
ilA
pr-
12B
ilate
ral t
rad
eSi
gn
ed t
rad
e ag
reem
ent
wit
h t
he
Rep
ub
lic o
f K
ore
a, s
ecu
rin
g im
pro
ved
acc
ess
for
soyb
ean
pro
du
cts
to t
he
Ko
rean
mar
ket.
Gra
ins
and
o
ilsee
ds
Ap
r-12
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nR
aise
d m
arg
in p
arti
cip
ants
nee
d t
o d
epo
sit,
in o
rder
to
gu
aran
tee
spec
ula
tive
fu
ture
s p
osi
tio
ns
for
all
com
mo
dit
ies.
Bio
fuel
Ap
r-12
to
Ja
n-1
3R
enew
able
en
erg
y p
olic
yPr
ovi
ded
fin
anci
al a
ssis
tan
ce t
o p
rod
uce
rs o
f b
iofu
el a
nd
to
en
titi
es c
on
du
ctin
g r
esea
rch
on
ad
van
ced
bio
fuel
s,
esp
ecia
lly t
ho
se b
ased
on
no
n-e
dib
le f
eed
sto
cks.
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
com
mo
dit
ies
Au
g-1
2Em
erg
ency
rel
ief
Pro
vid
ed a
ssis
tan
ce t
o f
arm
ers
affe
cted
by
exce
pti
on
al d
rou
gh
t.
Bio
fuel
Oct
-12
Bio
fuel
reg
ula
tio
nR
aise
d t
he
req
uir
ed a
mo
un
t o
f b
io-b
ased
die
sel t
o b
e in
corp
ora
ted
into
th
e n
atio
nal
fu
el m
arke
t in
201
3.
Gra
ins
and
o
ilsee
ds
Oct
-12
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nC
on
sid
ered
mea
ns
to c
on
tro
l exc
essi
ve s
pec
ula
tio
n in
co
mm
od
itie
s fu
ture
s tr
adin
g, i
n p
arti
cula
r in
fo
od
-rel
ated
co
mm
od
itie
s.
Bio
die
sel
Dec
-12
Tax
cred
itG
ran
ted
ret
roac
tive
fed
eral
tax
cre
dit
fo
r b
iod
iese
l fo
r al
l of
2012
, an
d e
xten
ded
up
to
en
d 2
013.
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
com
mo
dit
ies
Jan
-13
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
olic
yPr
ovi
sio
nal
ly e
xten
ded
200
8-20
12 F
arm
Bill
fo
r n
ine
mo
nth
s, i.
e. t
hro
ug
h t
he
2013
cro
p-g
row
ing
sea
son
, wit
h
the
exce
pti
on
of
som
e p
rog
ram
mes
su
ch a
s th
e co
nse
rvat
ion
sch
eme
and
em
erg
ency
rel
ief
mea
sure
s.
Rap
esee
dFe
b-1
3Pr
od
uct
ion
su
pp
ort
Ad
apte
d f
eder
al c
rop
insu
ran
ce p
rog
ram
me
to s
pec
ific
nee
ds
of
farm
ers
gro
win
g h
igh
-ole
ic r
apes
eed
.
Cam
elin
a o
ilFe
b-1
3R
enew
able
en
erg
y p
olic
yA
pp
rove
d o
il o
f ca
mel
ina
seed
as
bio
die
sel f
eed
sto
ck, m
eeti
ng
th
e 50
per
cen
t G
HG
red
uct
ion
th
resh
old
re
qu
ired
to
qu
alif
y u
nd
er U
S b
ioen
erg
y p
olic
ies.
Vie
tnam
Refi
ned
so
y,
pal
m o
ilJa
n-1
3Im
po
rt p
olic
yC
on
sid
ered
ch
arg
ing
“em
erg
ency
imp
ort
tar
iffs
” o
n r
efin
ed s
oy
and
pal
m o
il to
pre
ven
t ri
sin
g im
po
rts
fro
m
hu
rtin
g d
om
esti
c p
rod
uce
rs.
Zim
bab
we
Soyb
ean
No
v-12
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
assi
stan
cePr
ovi
ded
ince
nti
ves
for
the
dev
elo
pm
ent
of
soyb
ean
pro
du
ctio
n.
* A
col
lect
ion
of m
ajor
oils
eed
polic
y de
velo
pmen
ts s
tart
ing
in J
anua
ry 2
011
is a
vaila
ble
at: h
ttp:
//ww
w.f
ao.o
rg/e
cono
mic
/est
/est
-com
mod
ities
/com
mod
ity-p
olic
y-ar
chiv
e/en
/?gr
oupA
ND
com
mod
ity=
Oils
eeds
,%20
oils
%20
and%
20m
eals
.
Statistica
l ap
pe
nd
ixSta
tttiiisssttttiiiiccccaall aa
ppp
eenn
dddiiixxx
10505
APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes)
,1,2,3,4,*,1,> Production1 Imports Exports
08/09-10/11 2011/12 2012/13
08/09-10/112011/12 2012/13
08/09-10/11 2011/12 2012/13
average average average estim. f’cast estim. f’cast estim. f’cast
1 The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown; for tree crops which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.
Foo
d O
utl
oo
k -
Jun
e 2
01
3Fo
oddd
OOOuu
ttllo
okk
- JJJuuu
nnne
20
13
1061
APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS (million tonnes)
,1,2,3,4,*,1,> Imports Exports Utilization
08/09-10/11 2011/12 2012/13
08/09-10/112011/12 2012/13
08/09-10/11 2011/12 2012/13
average average average estim. f’cast estim. f’cast estim. f’cast
1 Soybeans: US, No.2 yellow, c.i.f. Rotterdam.2 Soybean oil: Dutch, fob ex-mill.3 Palm oil: Crude, c.i.f. Northwest Europe.4 Soybean cake: Pellets, 44/45 percent, Argentina, c.i.f. Rotterdam.5 Rapeseed meal: 34 percent, Hamburg, f.o.b. ex-mill. Note: The FAO indices are calculated using the Laspeyres formula; the weights used are the average export values of each commodity for the 2002-2004 period. The indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds, ten selected oils and fats and seven selected cakes and meals.Sources: FAO and Oil World.
