Date post: | 21-Jan-2015 |
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Supervisors
Prof GPW Jewitt
Prof H. Mahoo
Integrated Scenario Approach in addressing climate change uncertainties
in Wami Ruvu Catchment, Tanzania
Mercy Mwanikah Ojoyi
• IntroductionIntroduction•Goal & ObjectivesGoal & Objectives
•MethodsMethods•Data AnalysisData Analysis
•ResultsResults•DiscussionsDiscussions•ConclusionsConclusions
•AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Outline of Research Paper
IntroductionIntroduction
• Climate change is recognized as a risk to Climate change is recognized as a risk to peoples’ livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa peoples’ livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa (IPCC 2007)(IPCC 2007)
• Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing significant Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing significant variability in temperature, rainfall, LGP variability in temperature, rainfall, LGP resulting to frequent floods & droughts resulting to frequent floods & droughts (Thornton et al. 2006)(Thornton et al. 2006)
• Some of the sectors affected include: Some of the sectors affected include: agriculture, water catchments & natural agriculture, water catchments & natural ecosystem functions (NAPA 2007)ecosystem functions (NAPA 2007)
• Pressure is exerted on land leading to Pressure is exerted on land leading to negative rapid changes on resources thus negative rapid changes on resources thus affecting people’s livelihoodsaffecting people’s livelihoods
Climate Change Projections Climate Change Projections
• By 2080, approx. 1300 million exposed to By 2080, approx. 1300 million exposed to hunger scenarioshunger scenarios
• Africa, will be heavily compromised by CC Africa, will be heavily compromised by CC ImpactsImpacts
• Decrease in LGPsDecrease in LGPs
• Reduction in yields by 2020Reduction in yields by 2020
• Decrease in crop net revenues by 90% by Decrease in crop net revenues by 90% by 21002100
• Impacts of CC will be strongest in North and Impacts of CC will be strongest in North and South for Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth for Sub-Saharan Africa
(Source: IPCC 2007, Parry (Source: IPCC 2007, Parry et alet al, 2004), 2004)
Definition of ScenariosDefinition of Scenarios
Scenarios Scenarios present a series of pictures or images present a series of pictures or images of how the world could look like under of how the world could look like under different conditions different conditions
Source: (Alcamo 2001; Kemp-Benedict, 2004; Source: (Alcamo 2001; Kemp-Benedict, 2004; IPCC 2007)IPCC 2007)
Scenario applications: Physical, Social & Scenario applications: Physical, Social & EconomicEconomic•Frazier et al., 2010: balance creation between
community growth & resilience to natural
hazards
•Enfors et al., 2008: water management
strategies in Pangani
•Biggs et al., 2007: platforms for sharing new
knowledge
•Davis, 2002 : identification of opportunities &
risks
•Peterson et. al., 2003: identify solutions to
complex threats
•Alcamo 2001: addressing complex issues
•Wollenberg et al., 2000: decision making for
community forests
JustificationJustification
• Climate change related problems are having Climate change related problems are having major impacts on water, land and natural major impacts on water, land and natural resources; which eventually affects resources; which eventually affects livelihoods. livelihoods.
• However, there exists a huge gap on how to However, there exists a huge gap on how to bridge sectoral gaps on local knowledge with bridge sectoral gaps on local knowledge with current technology into an informed decision current technology into an informed decision
with the emerging climatic impacts felt with the emerging climatic impacts felt
• How can we strengthen trust into local‘s How can we strengthen trust into local‘s validity? validity?
Key Goal of Research PaperKey Goal of Research Paper
Addressing uncertainties in Wami/Ruvu Addressing uncertainties in Wami/Ruvu catchment using scenario planningcatchment using scenario planning
Assessment of major driving forcesAssessment of major driving forces
Scenario planning used to create avenues of Scenario planning used to create avenues of change for increased productivity through change for increased productivity through integrated processes integrated processes
Specific ObjectivesSpecific Objectives
Map showing river/lake basins in Tanzania and 7 catchments of Wami/Ruvu Basin
Study AreaStudy Area
Dar es salaam
Arusha
Study Area descriptionStudy Area description Temperatures in Tanzania range between 24°C - 34°C Temperatures in Tanzania range between 24°C - 34°C
Mean annual rainfall varies from below 500 mm to over Mean annual rainfall varies from below 500 mm to over 2500 mm annually2500 mm annually
The region faces major climatic impacts e.g. frequent The region faces major climatic impacts e.g. frequent floods, increased dry spells, changing rain fall seasonsfloods, increased dry spells, changing rain fall seasons
This influences length of growing seasons affecting food This influences length of growing seasons affecting food security that consequently affects people’s livelihoodssecurity that consequently affects people’s livelihoods
Participatory approach can enhance effective use and Participatory approach can enhance effective use and management of resources within the catchment, while management of resources within the catchment, while providing a window for positive change through providing a window for positive change through resilienceresilience
Target GroupTarget Group
6 Villages chosen upstream, downstream & 6 Villages chosen upstream, downstream & middle streammiddle stream
199 Household surveys conducted for key 199 Household surveys conducted for key
themes themes
84 farmers and their agricultural village 84 farmers and their agricultural village experts selected for the scenario procedureexperts selected for the scenario procedure
Participatory Scenario ProcedureParticipatory Scenario Procedure Participatory Scenario ProcedureParticipatory Scenario Procedure
Establish scenario team Team proposes goals & outlines
Team quantifies driving forces
Ranks driving forces
Revision of outline and storylines
Team revises storylines
General review of scenarios
Team revises scenarios
Presentation
Repetition of steps
Adopted from SCENES (Story and Simulation Approach to scenario development, Alcamo
2001)
Data Analysis ToolsData Analysis Tools
• Statistical Packages Analyses for Quantitative Statistical Packages Analyses for Quantitative datadata
• Content Analysis-Qualitative surveysContent Analysis-Qualitative surveys
• SAS (Story & Simulation Approach-Alcamo SAS (Story & Simulation Approach-Alcamo 2001 Adopted)2001 Adopted)
Outline of ResultsOutline of Results
• Trends in water resources, land and farm Trends in water resources, land and farm productivityproductivity
• Statistics of relationships between climate Statistics of relationships between climate change and main actorschange and main actors
• Major driving actors from scenario proceduresMajor driving actors from scenario procedures
• Highly ranked actorsHighly ranked actors
• Scenario categories Scenario categories
• Interpretation & applicationsInterpretation & applications
• Follow-up activities proposedFollow-up activities proposed
• ConclusionsConclusions
• Trends in water resources, land and farm Trends in water resources, land and farm productivityproductivity
• Statistics of relationships between climate Statistics of relationships between climate change and main actorschange and main actors
• Major driving actors from scenario proceduresMajor driving actors from scenario procedures
• Highly ranked actorsHighly ranked actors
• Scenario categories Scenario categories
• Interpretation & applicationsInterpretation & applications
• Follow-up activities proposedFollow-up activities proposed
• ConclusionsConclusions
Water resources/Land uses/ Productivity Water resources/Land uses/ Productivity
• Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river SystemsSystems
• Increased dry spells : short lived ‘Increased dry spells : short lived ‘masika’masika’ rains; rains;
fewer or lack of ‘fewer or lack of ‘vuli’vuli’ rainsrains
• Population statistics have increased over the Population statistics have increased over the years: exerting pressure on water resourcesyears: exerting pressure on water resources
• The frequency of floods and droughts has risenThe frequency of floods and droughts has risen
• Rapid Change in land uses realizedRapid Change in land uses realized
• Decrease in food security for the region due to Decrease in food security for the region due to changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, fewer ‘masika’ rains)fewer ‘masika’ rains)
Sources:Sources: NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Paavola 2008Paavola 2008
• Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river SystemsSystems
• Increased dry spells : short lived ‘Increased dry spells : short lived ‘masika’masika’ rains; rains;
fewer or lack of ‘fewer or lack of ‘vuli’vuli’ rainsrains
• Population statistics have increased over the Population statistics have increased over the years: exerting pressure on water resourcesyears: exerting pressure on water resources
• The frequency of floods and droughts has risenThe frequency of floods and droughts has risen
• Rapid Change in land uses realizedRapid Change in land uses realized
• Decrease in food security for the region due to Decrease in food security for the region due to changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, fewer ‘masika’ rains)fewer ‘masika’ rains)
Sources:Sources: NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Paavola 2008Paavola 2008
SPSS AnalysesSPSS Analyses
Relationship between climate change & main actors/drivers of change
•Pearson chi-square tests: P Value =0.000: shows high level of significance Drivers of change: Human activities
Natural Factors Culture & Traditions
Major Driving Actors from Scenario Major Driving Actors from Scenario ProcedureProcedure
Driving force Better Moderate Worse
Finances 72 0 12
Drought 42 36 6
Climate change 78 6 0
Hand hoe use6
1466
Agricultural inputs 72 012
Knowledge and extension services66
0 18
Changes in planting seasonality 24 6 54
Seed usage and availability 72 0 12
Irrigation 18 0 66
III. Driving forces highly ranked by scenario III. Driving forces highly ranked by scenario participantsparticipants
Driving forces Worse (%) Moderate(%) Better(%)
Drought 18 54 0
Knowledge and extension services 0 42 36
Agricultural practice 18 48 12
Environmental protection 0 36 42
Financial constraints 6 30 42
Categories of Scenarios 2030 DevelopedCategories of Scenarios 2030 DevelopedCategories of Scenarios 2030 DevelopedCategories of Scenarios 2030 Developed
Actors/ Factors Status of Actors/Factors State of stagnation In transition Managing thro’
Experience
State of
Stability
Drought Increase/decrease Increase Increase Decrease Decrease
Knowledge and
accessibility
to technology
High level of
awareness/low level
of awareness
Low Low Relatively
high
Very high
Agricultural
productivity
High/Low High Low High High
Environmental
Conservation
Weak environmental
conservation/advance
d environmental
conservation
Weak Weak Advanced Advanced
Economics Stable/low low low better Stable
Scenario Interpretation & SignificanceScenario Interpretation & SignificanceScenario Interpretation & SignificanceScenario Interpretation & Significance
• Explanation for each of the scenarios Explanation for each of the scenarios storylines developed and what it meant for storylines developed and what it meant for the participantsthe participants
• Relevance of scenarios to climate change Relevance of scenarios to climate change resilience for Wami Ruvu Catchmentresilience for Wami Ruvu Catchment
• Significance of Scenario approach used for Significance of Scenario approach used for the communitythe community
• Scenarios and Resilience developmentScenarios and Resilience development
Applications Applications
1.1.Management of risks and uncertaintiesManagement of risks and uncertainties
2.2.Future Planning: development, budget Future Planning: development, budget planning, resource distribution, e.t.c.planning, resource distribution, e.t.c.
3.3.Development pathways proposed Development pathways proposed
Sustainable Follow-up Activities by Sustainable Follow-up Activities by participantsparticipants
Sustainable Follow-up Activities by Sustainable Follow-up Activities by participantsparticipants
ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions• Major relationships identified between changing land uses, Major relationships identified between changing land uses,
water resources, climate change and agricultural water resources, climate change and agricultural productivityproductivity
• Scenario as a tool was very practical in identification of Scenario as a tool was very practical in identification of major factors influencing changes in the agro-landscapemajor factors influencing changes in the agro-landscape
• SAS approach used was helpful in integration of SAS approach used was helpful in integration of stakeholder ideas at all stages of the scenario development stakeholder ideas at all stages of the scenario development processprocess
• The four scenario categories identified uncertainties in The four scenario categories identified uncertainties in each category and helped in developing a development each category and helped in developing a development pathway for the future of Wami Ruvu Catchmentpathway for the future of Wami Ruvu Catchment
• The results of the scenario process provided useful The results of the scenario process provided useful windows for positive change in the catchmentwindows for positive change in the catchment
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements UnUniversity of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa-iversity of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa-
TrainingTraining
Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania-Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania-TrainingTraining
Wami Ruvu Basin Water Office, Tanzania-Wami Ruvu Basin Water Office, Tanzania-
Financial Financial
Collaborative Research for East Africa Territorial Collaborative Research for East Africa Territorial Integration; -Research Financial supportIntegration; -Research Financial support
UNESCO-IHE for Study Financial supportUNESCO-IHE for Study Financial support
AfricaAdapt- Travel support to the meeting AfricaAdapt- Travel support to the meeting
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