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OKLAHOMA BUDGET OVERVIEW
Trends and Outlook
REVISED April 15, 2010
David Blatt
Oklahoma Policy [email protected] - (918) 794-3944
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Oklahomas Path to Prosperity
OUR STARTING POINTWe invest our tax dollars in
our public structures to support
our common goals as a state
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Oklahomas Path to Prosperity
We Already Lag Behind Oklahoma already underfunds most of our publicstructures and falls short of many common goals as astate
We rank 50th among the states in per capita
expenditures on state and local government
We need renewed investment in our public structuresto meet our common goals as a state.
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Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09
Annual Appropriations Totals,FY 00FY 08(Includes Supplementals thru FY 08 and Rainy Day spillover Funds for
Recurring Agency Expenditures) - in $millions
FY 02 FY 08: Bust and BoomState budget suffered steep downturn, deep cuts, 02 - 04
Strong economy led to robust revenue growth and increased stateappropriations between FY 06 and FY 08
$4,981
$5,389 $5,491$5,191 $5,145
$5,459
$6,217
$6,760$7,043
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08
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Where did the growth revenue go?
Covering rising costs of basic services and supportingtargeted investments for shared goals;
80 percent of new dollars went to six core agencies.
Increased State Appropriations, Selected Agencies,FY 06 FY 08
Dept. of Education: $453M
Health Care Authority: $289M
Higher Education: $271M
Human Services: $129M
Corrections: $80M
Transportation: $72.5M*
Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09
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Lost Revenues from Select Tax Cuts Enacted 2004 - 2006FY'05 through FY'10 (in $ millions)
$18.7$144.8
$333.3
$561.8$651.1
$776.9
$0.0
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10source : Oklahoma Tax Commission
Tax Cuts had a long-term impact Most of the cuts were to the personal income tax
Tax cuts were stretched out over several years; full impactwill not be felt until FY 11
Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09
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Budget Trends: FY 02 - FY 09
FY07 FY08: Revenue Slowdown
As tax cuts kicked in, General Revenue collections werealmost flat in FY 08 compared to FY 07 (+%0.9, $54million)
-6.6%-5.3%
10.6%
7.6%
14.8%
4.0%
0.9%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08
Annual % Change in General Revenue Collections, FY '03 - FY '08
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Budget Trends: FY 02 - FY 09
FY 09 Budget: Tightening the Screws Most agencies appropriations frozen for FY 09
No funding for benefit cost increases teacher salary increases, stateemployee raises
FY 09 excludes supplementals and mid-year budget cut
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Budget Trends: FY 10
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Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Budget Trends: FY 10
Things Are Tough All Over
All but two states are experiencing the state fiscal crisis
Combined state budget gaps for FY 09 FY 12 estimated toreach $600 billion
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Budget Trends: FY 10
This is As Bad as Its Ever Been
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual General Revenue Collections, in $ millions,
FY '82 - FY '11 (FY '10 & FY'11 based on Feb. 2010 certification)
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Budget Trends: FY 10
The Recession Hit Oklahoma Late 2008
See OK Policy, Numbers You Need, at:
http://okpolicy.org/numbers-you-need-key-oklahoma-economic-and-budget-trends
3.6
6.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan-80
Mar-81
May-82
Jul-83
Sep-84
Nov-85
Jan-87
Mar-88
May-89
Jul-90
Sep-91
Nov-92
Jan-94
Mar-95
May-96
Jul-97
Sep-98
Nov-99
Jan-01
Mar-02
May-03
Jul-04
Sep-05
Nov-06
Jan-08
Mar-09
%Umpo
Oklahoma Monthly Unemployment Rate(Seasonally-Adjusted), 1980-2010
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Budget Trends: FY 10
The Recession Hit Oklahoma Late 2008
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2 2009.3 2009.4
% Change from PriorQuarter
Quarterly Change in Personal Income,Oklahoma and National,
4th Quarter 2007 to 4th Quarter 2009
U.S. Oklahoma
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 09: A Tale of Two Half-Years FY 09 revenue collections went from $224.8 million above
estimate (July-Dec) to $672.0 million below estimate (Jan-Jun)
11.1% 10.8%
1.3%
10.4% 12.8%
7.1%
-8.5%
-21.5%-19.1%
-21.1%
-27.7%-30.1%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Change in Monthly General Revenue Collections,
FY '09 Compared to Same Month, FY '08
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 Budget: Revenues on the Skids
5,407.2
5,649.2
5,981.1 5,946.45,902.7
5,710.0
5,356.6
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
FY '06 Actual Fy '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 June FY '09
December
FY '09
February
FY '10
Feburary
General Revenue Collections,FY '06 Actual - FY '10 Estimated (in $million)
In February, FY 10 revenues estimated to come in >$600million below FY09 ;
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 Budget
NOTE: FY 09 totals do not include June budget cuts
$7,231.2 million total, including $641 million ARRA (stimulus)
Increase in total appropriations of $106 million (1.5 percent)compared to FY 09
State dollars only: $500 million less than in FY 09
$4,981
$5,389$5,491
$5,191 $5,145
$5,459
$6,217
$6,760
$7,043
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10State Appropriations ARRA
$30ARRA
$7,125 $7,231
$641ARRA
$7,095State
$6,590State
State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY '10 in $millions)(includes supplementals, excludes one-times from Rainy Day Spillover funds)
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FY 10 State Appropriations10 Largest Agencies: $6.3 billion (88%)
Agencies (75 agencies): $829 million (12%)
Budget Trends: FY 10
Common Ed.,$2,572.0 , 36%
Higher Ed.,$1,070.7 , 15%
OHCA (Medicaid),$979.8 , 13%
DHS,$550.7 , 8% Corrections$503.07%Transportation,$208.7 , 3%
Mental Health,$203.3 , 3%Career Tech,$157.8 , 2%Juv. Affairs,$112.4 , 1%
Public Safety,$93.3 , 1%All OtherAgencies,$779.4 ,11%
TotalAppropriations:$7,231.2 millionIncludesAmerican
Recovery andReinvestmentAct (ARRA)
Total TenLargest: $6,451.8,89.2 %
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 Budget Stimulus funds made it possible to minimize cuts orprovide small increases to ten largest state agencies andsome smaller ones
Funding for 10 largest agencies up $161 million, 2.6
percent Most smaller agencies took cuts of 5 to 7 percent
No funding to address rising employee benefit costs orinflation (e.g. utilities, transportation, food)
Demands for some state services increase due to thedownturn
See: OK Policy FY 10 Budget Review at:
http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-budget-information
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start July-Jan revenue collections down 27.0 percent from FY09
Finally seeing clear signs that the downturn has hitbottom and revenues are starting to climb back
11.1% 10.8%
1.3%
10.4%12.8%
7.1%
-8.5%
-21.5%-19.1%
-21.1%
-27.7%-30.1%
-26.3%
-31.6%
-30.1%
-23.7%
-30.5%-29.1%
-16.7%
-7.3%
1.6%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Change in Monthly General Revenue Collections, Compared to SameMonth Prior Year, July '08 - Mar '10
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start Four consecutive quarters of worsening collections
Revenue drops more than twice as steep as during thelast downturn
-12.1%
9.9%
-29.5%
-8.3%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
Q1
FY
'02
Q3
FY
'02
Q1
FY
'03
Q3
FY
'03
Q1
FY
'04
Q3
FY
'04
Q1
FY
'05
Q3
FY
'05
Q1
FY
'06
Q3
FY
'06
Q1
FY
'07
Q3
FY
'07
Q1
FY
'08
Q3
FY
'08
Q1
FY
'09
Q3
FY
'09
Q1
FY
'10
Q3
FY
'10
Quarterly Year-over-Year Change in GR Collections,Oklahoma, FY '02 - FY'10 (Q3)
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start Collections through March are $863 million 23.4 percent -below the estimate
February collections came in right at the estimate; Marchexceeded estimate by 25.5 percent
-$330
-$109
-$236
-$6
-$102
-$782
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
Net Income Tax Gross Production Sales Tax Motor Vehicle Other Sources Total Gen. Revenue
General Revenue Collections compared to Estimate, by Tax, FY '10 thruMarch (in $millions)
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start February collections were just 76.5 percent of the averagemonthly collections for the same month over the previous 5years ; March rebounded to 90.8 percent of 5-year average
76.1%
90.8%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Jul'08
Aug'08
Sep'08
Oct'08
Nov'08
Dec'08
Jan'09
Feb'09
Mar'09
Apr'09
May'09
Jun'09
Jul'09
Aug'09
Sep'09
Oct'09
Nov'09
Dec'09
Jan'10
Feb'10
Mar'10
Monthly Total General Revenue Collections as % of Prior Five-Year Same-
Month Average, July 2008 - March 2010
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Budget Trends: FY 10
FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start OSF cut agencies GR allocations by 5 percent throughNovember and by 10 percent since December.
Cuts are across-the-board based on GR allocations
Since some agencies are partly or fully appropriated fromother funds (i.e. 1017 Fund, State Transportation Fund,Lottery, ARRA), agencies are not all affected equally
Cuts limited to less than shortfall through transfers of cashreserves that must be repaid
$314.6 million since start of year
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Budget Trends: FY 10
Budget Outlook Gov. Henry: Unfortunately, the cuts we have been forcedto implement to date are already taking their toll on stateprograms and services (Nov. 10, 2009)
Even at 5-10 percent monthly cut level, the toll is growing:
DHS cut senior nutrition services by $7.2 million;
OJA cancelled youth detention and gang prevention programs, cutproviders 5 percent, authorized 22 furlough days;
OHCA cut some Medicaid benefits and reduced provider rates by 3.5percent;
Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Servicesannounced closure of childrens behavioral health center in Norman,lay-offs, cuts in contracts to providers;
School districts eliminating programs, some going to 4-day weeks
Most agencies leaving positions unfilled, offering buy-outs; manyimposing furloughs.
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Budget Trends: What Response?
FY 10 : How Large a Shortfall? February certification projects a $669 million (13.0percent) shortfall in FY 10 GR collections.
$109 million projected shortfall in HB 1017 Fund as well
Total mid-year shortfall of $778 million
$5,415
$5,145
$4,476
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
100% Estimate - June Appropriation (95%) February Projection
FY '10 General Revenues - Original vs.Revised Projections
$669million
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Budget Outlook: What Response?
Shortfall Options Rainy Day Fund was filled to maximum amount of $597million
Left untouched for initial FY 10 budget
$157.5
$340.9
$72.3
$0.1
$217.5
$461.3$496.7
$571.6$596.6
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rainy Day Fund Balances, FY '01 - FY '09(opening balance in $ millions)
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Budget Outlook: What Response?
Shortfall Options Rainy Day Fund can be accessed as follows:
3/8th for a mid-year shortfall in GR collections; ($224M)
3/8th for a projected decline in GR collections for the comingyear compared to the current year ($224M);
1/4th upon declaration of an emergency and legislative approval($149M)
Current Year
RevenueFailure, 37.5% -
$224M
Forthcoming
Year Shortfall,
37.5% - $224M
Emergency,
25.0% - $149M
Uses of Constitutional
Reserve Fund
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Budget Outlook: What Response?
FY 10 Mid-Year Budget AgreementAgreements announced by Governor, Speaker andPresident Pro Tem in January and February
Continued 10 percent monthly cuts to GR for rest of year
Averages out to 7.5 percent of GR for full year
Supplemental funding to Common Ed of $157 million to offsetpart of GR and 1017 shortfalls; $25.6 M to Higher Ed; $33M toOHCA; $15M to Governors Emergency Fund; $7.2M toCorrections; $3 million to Public Safety, smaller amounts toRehab Services , Central Services, other agencies
No additional funds for Human Services, Mental Health
Use of $223.7 million of Rainy Day Fund (3/8th), $151 millionmore stimulus money, plus additional gross production taxrevenues and other sources
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Budget Outlook: What Response?
FY 10 Mid-Year Budget Agreement Total revised budget is $272 million (3.8%) less thaninitial; $165 million (2.3%) less than FY 09;
Almost $1.5billion (25%) of revised FY 10 budget madeup of non-recurring money
$6,793
$6,220$5,484
$301
$371
$413
$30$641
$838
$224
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
FY '09 FY '10 - Initial FY '10 - Revised
State Recurring Cash Stimulus (ARRA) Rainy Day Fund
State Appropriations, FY '09 - FY '10,
Total and by Funding Source (in $millions)
Total= $7.124 billion Total= $7.231 billionTotal= $6.959 billion
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Budget Outlook: What Response?
FY 10 Mid-Year Budget Agreement Agencies funded in whole or in part with non-GR fundsand those receiving supplementals absorb less than full 7.5percent cut
-2.3%
-7.6%
-1.7%
-5.3%
-9.6%
11.1%
-8.2%
-0.2%
-7.1% -7.2%
-10.0%
-8.1%-7.4%
-3.8%
-7.3%
-3.2%
-5.3%
-2.8%
-1.1%
-7.4%
-3.1%
-5.7%
-7.3% -7.2%
-4.3%
-7.5%
-12.0%
-7.0%
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
Funding Changes for Largest State Agencies, FY '09 - FY '10 (Final)& FY '10 (Initial) - FY '10 (Final)
FY '09 (Final) - FY '10 (Final) FY '10 (Initial) - FY '10 (Final)
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Budget Outlook: FY 11
FY 11: More of the Same FY 11 revenue collections projected to grow onlyslightly from FY 10 and to remain almost 25 percentbelow pre-downturn (FY 08) levels
$5,714
$5,928 $5,981
$5,519$5,415
$ 4,475
$4,579
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
FY '06 Actual FY '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 Actual FY '10 (June
estimated)
FY '10 (Feb
projected)
FY '11 (Feb
estimated)
General Revenue Collections,FY '06 Actual - FY '11 Estimated (in $ millions)
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Budget Outlook: FY 11
FY 11: The Challenge Escalates Final FY 11 certification provides $1.8 billion lessrevenue for next year than this years initial budget
$7,043 $7,124$7,231
$6,452
$6,959
$5,294 $5,415
$6,797
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 -
initial
budget
FY '10 -
projected
revenues
(Feb)
FY '10 -
Revised
FY '11 -
Certified
State $
(Dec)
FY '11 -
Certified
State $
(Feb)
FY '11 -
Gov
Budget
State Appropriations, FY'08-FY '11(includes all revenues; includes FY '08-FY '09 supplementals;
in $ millions)
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Budget Outlook: FY 11
FY 11: The Challenge Escalates Speaker Benge: Our state is still facing a $1.2 billionshortfall for fiscal year 2011, and agencies are currentlyfacing significant additional cuts if revenue projections provetrue Tulsa World (3/10/2010)
Assuming maintenance of this years budget cuts and the
use of remaining stimulus funds and 3/8ths of Rainy DayFund, next years budget gap exceeds $800 million.
Equivalent to an additional 12 percent cuts to allagencies of state government beyond the cuts alreadyenacted.
Federal extension of enhanced FMAP would reduce thisgap by some $300 million and use of remaining emergencyRainy Day Funds by an additional $149 million.
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Budget Outlook: FY 11
FY 11: The Challenge Escalates To budget the balance, Gov. Henry proposed:
Annualizing and increasing FY10 cuts by an additional 0.5
percent to 3 percent for all agencies.
Using remaining stimulus funds and a portion of remaining
Rainy Day Funds. Savings from consolidating agencies and IT services.
New bond issues.
Enhanced tax collection proposals, particularly increased salestax collections on Internet sales and automated enforcement of
vehicle insurance;
Eliminating and suspending various tax credits;
Increases in fees and permits.
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Budget Outlook: FY 11
FY 11: The Challenge Escalates Some of the revenue enhancements and savings in theGovernors budget proposal are receiving seriousconsideration, as are other revenue ideas.
Even under the Governors proposals, the cuts to agencyprograms and services would be deep and widespread
Most agencies face FY 11 funding 10 to 17 percent below theirbudgets for FY 09.
Even those core agencies in education, health, human services,and public safety that are partially protected will take cuts in FY10 and FY 11 and are not funded in FY 11 to deal with rising
operating costs and caseloads.
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Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: No Quick Recovery Revenues unlikely to recover to pre-downturn nominallevels prior to FY 13
$5,928 $5,981
$5,544
$4,439
$4,735
$5,275
$5,945
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
FY 07 (act.)FY 08 (act.)FY 09 (act.)FY 10 (est.)FY 11 (est.)FY 12 (est.)FY 13 (est.)
R
n$mio
Fiscal Year
Historical and Projected Revenue, FY'07-FY'13General Revenue Fund
Estimates by OKPolicy - not based onFeb 2010
certification
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Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: No Quick Recovery Substantial reliance in FY10 11 on non-recurringrevenue creates significant problems for FY 12
Time-released tax cuts still kicking in
Top rate will fall from 5.5% to 5.25% as soon asrevenues are projected to grow 4%... even if revenuesremain below pre-downturn levels
Additional revenues automatically allocated for ROADSand OHLAP
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Structural deficit: Asituation that occurswhen a states normal
growth of revenues isinsufficient to financethe normal growth ofexpenditures year afteryear
(CBPP, Faulty Foundations: State Structural
Budget Problems)
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
Oklahoma like most states and the federal government faces a looming structural budget deficit
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Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
Projected Annual Budget Surpluses and Deficits
Before and After 2004-2006 Tax Cuts (2007 to 2035)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035Y e a r
Mion$2005
B e f o r e T a x C u t s
A f t e r T a x C u t s
Oklahomas Structural Deficit
Source: Projections conducted in 2007 by Dr. Kent Olson, Professor ofEconomics, Oklahoma State University
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Long-Term Recommendations1. Modernize the Tax System
2. Preserve a Balanced Tax Structure
3. Scrutinize our programs and spendingcommitments
4. Make the tax system fairer
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
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For More Information
Updated Budget Information:okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-
11budget-information
Oklahoma Policy Institutes OnlineBudget Guide
www.okpolicy.org/online-
budget-guide
http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-information8/9/2019 Oklahoma Budget Trends and Outlook (Apr2010)
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Contact Information
Oklahoma Policy InstituteP.O. Box 14347Tulsa, OK 74159-1437
(918) 794-3944
Oklahoma Policy Institute provides timely and credible analysis of state policy issues
Better Information, Better Policywww.okpolicy.org
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]