December 5, 2017 by Caleb Diehl Published in Must Reads comments
On the Scene: Oregon Leadership Summit0
The15thannualOregonLeadershipSummityesterdaybroughttogetherbusinessandpoliticalleadersforadiscussionaboutthestate'seconomicfuture.
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Thespeechesandconversationsaddeduptoaseriesofdirewarnings,tingedwithjustenoughoptimismtokeeppeopleintheirseats.Oregonfacesabudgetcrisis.Robotsarecomingforourjobs.Theepic2017�ireseasonwon'tbeourlast.
HerearethreeissuesthatkeepOregonbusinessleadersupatnight:
We'realreadybehindscheduleonthebudgetcrisis
ThePERScrisisloomedlarge.
"WeneedtoactnowtoavoidtheAntietamofOregonpolitics,"saidOregonBusinessPlanchairPatrickCriteser,comparingthebudgetcrisistoaCivilWarbloodbath.ThenewlyelectedpresidentofOregonBusiness&Industry,RepresentativeMarkJohnson,added,"thelongerwewait,thebiggertheholegets."
Tillamook's Patrick Criteser at #olsummit: No crisis looms aslarge as Oregon's fiscal crisis. @PDX_BizAlliance9:47 AM - Dec 4, 2017
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Sandra mcDonough@Sandimcdpdx
Sen.JeffMerkleyspeakingatthemorningsession
LegislatorsandbusinessleaderspointedtoHB2017,the$5.3billionstatetransportationpackageasanexampleofbipartisanaction.Theycalledforbringingunions,industrygroupsandpoliticianstothetableasquicklyaspossible—althoughnooneprovideddetailsaboutwhatwouldbediscussedatthetable.Gov.KateBrownwentonestepfurther:Shesaidherplanwouldfocusonincentivizinglocalemployerstopaydowntheirunfundedactuarialliabilityandsettinguprisk-sharingprogramsforemployees.
DespitethesuccessofHB2017,legislatorswerenotoptimistic.SenatorsLeeBeyerandBrianBoquist,andRepresentativesCliffBentzandCaddyMcKeowncringedwhenanintervieweraskedifOregoncouldpassabipartisanrevenuepackageby2019,saying"weshouldhavestartedsixtoeightmonthsago."
Gov.Brownadded,"Icertainlywanttogetthingsgoing,like,lastweek."
Automationwillaffectbothwhiteandbluecollarjobs
Intheafternoon,futuristSteveBrowntrainedhiscrystalballonautomation.Thekeyconcern,hesaid,isn'tthatrobotswilltakeourjobs.It'sthatwewon'tbeabletotrainpeoplequicklyenoughforthenewjobstherobotscreate.
"We'vealwayscreatedanddestroyedjobswitheachwaveofnewtechnology,"hesaid."Thedangeristhatwewon'tbeabletocatchthisquicklyenough,toshiftthepeoplefromtheoldtothenewjobs."
InOregon,jobsalongthecoastfacethegreatestdangerofautomation,economistJohnTapognatoldtheaudience.Coasteconomiesdependonahigherproporationofservicejobs,asopposedtoPortland'shighnumberofcreativepositions.
For Oregon’s future, @OregonGovBrown wants to focus oninvesting in rural communities, water, affordable housing andbroadband infrastructure throughout the state, continuing workin innovation, cross laminated timber (CLT), workforce trainingand small businesses. #OLSummit11:34 AM - Dec 4, 2017 · Portland, OR
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PDXBusinessAlliance@PDX_BizAlliance
SomeOregonsmallbusinessesarealreadyusingDAX,developedbyOregon-basedNovaDynamics,tomakedeliveries
RobotslikeBossaNova,whichtakeinventoryingroceryaisles,will intensifypressureonthealreadystrugglingretailindustry,Brownsaid.
Automationconjuresupimagesofrobotsonthefactory�loorandincheckoutlines.ButBrownremindedtheaudiencethatthetrendwilldramaticallyrestructurewhitecollarjobsaswell.
"Yourchildismorelikelytohavelongevityinacareerasanursethanadoctor,"hesaid.
SteveBrownspeakingaboutautomationattheLeadershipSummit
Otherexpertsechoedthewarningthatfewjobsarecompletelyrobot-proof.MattAbrams,generalpartneratSevenPeaksVenturessaid,“Everyjobthathaspredictabletaskswillbeaffectedbyautomation.”
Aswereshapeeducationtomeettheautomatedjobmarket,Brownsaid,softskillslikecreativityandempathywilltakeongreaterimportance.Youcanteacharobottocode,butyoucan'tteachithowtobehuman.
Unlessstateandfederalagenciesrestructuretheirapproachto�iremanagement,largecon�lagarationswillbecomemorecommon.
CarolinePark,presidentofThunderIslandBrewinginCascadeLocks,evacuatedherhomethissummertoescapetheEagleCreek�ire.Shebouncedbetweenhomesandhotels,shetoldtheaudienceinabreakoutsession,andranpayrollfromherphone.Herbusinessinsurancedidn'tcoverthe�irst72hoursofloss—LaborDayweekend.
"TheheartoftheGorgeshutdown,"shesaid.Whenyourheartstopsyourwholebodyfeelsit."
Expertsdiscussthecostsofthe2017wild�ireseason
The2017wild�ireseasonincurred$438millioninsuppressioncosts,involved8,000�ire�ighters,andcostODOT$300,000adayindisruptionstotraf�ic.Ontopofthat,businesseslostmorethanamonthofrevenue.InatownlikeCascadeLocks,Parksaid,withanaverageincomeof$26,000,that'sasigni�icantloss.
"The�iresarebigger,the�iresarehotter,"saidSen.RonWyden."Thisisunprecedented."
StateEconomistMarkMcMullensaidthatbasedoncomparisonstothe1988Yellowstone�iresandtheMt.St.Helenseruption,evidenceshowsthis�ireseasonwon'tdiscouragenewbusinessinvestmentinOregonoverthelong-run.
JohnBailey,aprofessorattheOSUCollegeofForestry,arguedthatthestateshouldspendmoreonpreventativemeasureslikeproscribedburns,ratherthanwaitingforadisaster."Proscribed�ireis
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CALEB DIEHL
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goingtobepartofthesolution,"hesaid."It'savaccination."
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