“Once you lose your people you lose your organization”

a quotation used in a Philippines telecommunications conference on business continuity

Core issue...

Most likely....

Typhoons occur regularly in the Philippines and there is a history of severe tropical weather impacting the National Capital Region. It is rare for tropical weather to completely disrupt Metro Manila for longer than 5 days. While there is no record of Super Typhoon-strength winds (exceeding 240kph) impacting Metro Manila, such a system is possible and would likely result in a disruption exceeding two weeks. .

Disaster Likelihood and Impact

Probable

A major earthquake occurring on the Marikina West Valley Fault system, which traverses Metro Manila, would likely result in catastrophic damage and disrupt business operations for months.

Disaster Likelihood and Impact

Widespread death and injuries

Emergency services inaccessible

100,000+ buildings collapsed

Closure of runwaysWater lines down, no fresh drinking

water

No power

No cell phones, internet, TV, etc.

Roads impassable, bridges divide city

In the aftermath…

Possible

Manila is within 100km of two active volcano systems. Mt. Pinatubo, located northwest of Manila, erupted in 1991 and caused disruption in Metro Manila and throughout the northern Philippines. An eruption of the Taal volcano, located 60km southwest of Manila, could severe disrupt electricity supply to Metro-Manila and disrupt transportation systems. It is unlikely that a Taal volcano eruption would severely disrupt Metro Manila beyond 14 days. However, moderate disruption could be expected for up to several months

Telecommunication systems are at a high risk of disruption by natural disasters.

Disaster Likelihood and Impact

Disaster Likelihood and Impact

Possible

A pandemic would disrupt Metro-Manila. This is particularly true for high density communities and organizations with large work forces. A pandemic would also impact mass public transport, airport movements, and the tourist industry. Moderate disruption for a period possibly exceeding 14 days

Probable

The Philippines is potentially facing a major electricity shortfall over the next 5-10 years. The Malampaya Gas Field – which feeds into three major power plants south of Metro Manila – supplies 40-45% of Metro Manila’s electricity supply and is expected to run out of gas sometime between 2020 and 2025. Experts note that programs to address this shortage are unlikely to be complete prior to 2020. This could lead to electricity rationing program or a significant rise in power costs in Metro-Manila.

Disaster Likelihood and Impact

Possible

The Philippines is engaged in an ongoing territorial dispute with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) concerning overlapping claims in the South China Sea. While this dispute is unlikely to evolve into outright war, escalating tension could result in cyber-attacks directed against key Philippine infrastructure and government agencies. Such attacks could disrupt key infrastructure, e.g. telecommunication systems and power.

Disaster Likelihood and Impact

Possible

While the Philippines have enjoyed a period of calm over the past 5 years, the country has a long history of political unrest. Mass uprisings and/or coup d’état attempts have been directed against four of the last six Philippine presidents. There is no indication that political instability will disrupt Metro-Manila over the near or medium term. Given the continuing presence of corruption and a struggling judicial system, political instability cannot be ruled out in the long term.

Disaster Likelihood and Impact

Major Disaster: Potential Disruptions

Telecommunication infrastructure, to include critical communication nodes, fiber optic networks, internet, cellular systems, and landline telephone systems.

Essential utilities such as electricity and water

Essential services such as emergency response, hospital care, and banking

Transportation infrastructure, to include primary and secondary roads, airports, and mass transit systems.

Business Continuity

“Business continuity is the capability of the organization to continue delivery of products or services at acceptable predefined levels following a disruptive incident”......ISO 22301:2012

“Never say never again”...lessons unlearnt When thinking of disasters both natural and man-made – think regional

Separation of distance (>>200km)

Plan for longer disruption periods (a survey from 2012 indicated that 60-70% of businesses only planned for disruption periods of less than 7 days)

Remote access to IT infrastructure (not always reliable unless carefully planned)

Work from home (not always reliable unless carefully planned)

Multiple sourced vendors/suppliers

What is being learnt:– Leveraging organisation structure if decentralized (not always possible)– Remote facilities (IT Disaster Recovery/specialized BCF/Workplace recovery

facilities/Distributed operations/Second (or alternate) source manufacturing)– Use of the ‘cloud’

The simple things

• Immediate ACTIONS– Procedures to identify where people are, find them and communicate– Response systems: communicate, life safety, first aid– Food, water, shelter – workplace and home– Securing scenes of disruption – preventing further loss or accident– Securing assets (against further damage or looting)

• Next steps– gather key people and experts – assess situation and next steps to ensure response phase is

complete– commence recovery processes – disaster-specific adjustments to situation (temporary facilities, including camps)– prepare for implementation of plans concurrent to response phase

• Basic infrastructure• Basic supplies• Welfare of staff (and family)• Create an environment for organization to re-form

Build Resilience and the Capacity of Staff

Awareness of the risks Response procedures for the home Emergency training for the home....’Manny’s safe steps’ Preparation of a emergency survival kit

Questions?