Home >Documents >Oncology Ten Transformative Trends

Oncology Ten Transformative Trends

Date post:05-Apr-2018
Category:
View:218 times
Download:0 times
Share this document with a friend
Transcript:
  • 7/31/2019 Oncology Ten Transformative Trends

    1/24

    INTRODUCTIONTen Transormative Trends

    A perect storm is brewing in oncology. Wedo not say this lightly. Big pharmas highly re-dundant oncology pipeline has created intensecompetition. At the very time when oncologydevelopers need most to dierentiate their

    products in the marketplace, traditional com-mercialization tools are being swept away. Bigpharma nds itsel in very dierent waters

    rom those o a decade beore, and many com-panies are ill prepared to weather the comingstorm.

    Oncology is a therapeutic area with cutting-edge science and high per-patient revenue.

    Our clients have increasingly engaged us ononcology licensing and launches, and we sawthe need or an insiders view o commercial

    changes in the industry not generally availablein the primary literature or analyst reports.Hence, we initiated the Oncology NationalCommercial (ONC) study. In ONC, we surveyedindustry experts, physicians, payers, and keyopinion leaders (Box 1).

    Oncology National Commercial StudyTen Transormative Trends

    Campbell Alliance Thought Leadership

    Report prepared by Jeff Stewart and Nader Naeymi-Rad

    1

    Box 1

    Methodology

    Campbell interviewed industry leaders, payers, key opinion leaders, and physicians. We supplemented the results o these interviews with industryinsights and secondary data. Campbell analyzed the oncology pipeline held by midsize and large pharmaceutical companies over the past decade.We selected these companies to analyze because their pipelines are those with the most commercial backing, and changes in these pipelines refectmainstream market expectations. Analyzed companies included Abbott, Alkermes, ALZA, American Home Products, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca,Aventis, Bayer, Bayer Schering, Biogen IDEC, Bristol-Myers, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene , Chugai, Daiichi, Daiichi Sankyo, Dainippon, Eisai, Eli Lilly,Endo, Enzon, Fujisawa, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Ilex Oncology, Johnson & Johnson, Medivation, Merck, Mitsubishi, Myriad, Nektar, Novartis, Pzer,Pharmacia, Roche, Sankyo, sano-aventis, Schering-AG, Schering-Plough, Takeda, Teva, Watson, and Yamanouchi. Note that some o these companiesexisted as independent entities at only one part o the decade.

    Primary Research

    Secondary Research

    Industry Oncology-focused pharma/biotech

    Senior leadership interviewed

    9 top 20 companies

    6 multinational and regional

    Industry Insights Experience from over 300 oncology projects in the last 3 years alone

    Campbell proprietary data

    Our Dealmakers Intentions Survey

    Payers National and regional plans

    Some integrated delivery

    systems

    Key Opinion Leaders 10 highly published, internation-

    ally respected oncologists

    Experienced clinical trial

    investigators

    Pipeline Analysis Large pharma oncology pipeline

    2000 and 2010

    MOA, tumor types, and product composition by phase

    Physicians 20 community hematologists/

    oncologists

  • 7/31/2019 Oncology Ten Transformative Trends

    2/24

    Box 2

    Ten Transormative Trends

    Oncology National Commercial (ONC) Study, 2000-2010 Ten Transormative Trends

    2

    We were not surprised to nd that the oncol-ogy market had changed over the past decade,but the scope o the change did surprise us.When we consolidated the changes reportedto us, an alarming pattern emerged. The oncol-ogy space had transormed in such a way thatnever-beore-seen competition is now built

    into the marketplace, yet ew companies areprepared to operate in the ace o this intensecompetition.

    We conrmed our ndings with additionaldata on big pharmas oncology pipeline andcommercialization eorts. Here, we present

    these ndings so that our clients may preparethemselves to survive in rough seas.

    Our ndings may be summarized as TenTransformative Trends (Box 2).

    1. Large pharma has dramatically

    expanded its oncology pipeline

    2. The oncology pipeline has become

    increasingly targeted

    3. Multiple oncology therapies target the

    same molecular pathways

    4. Multiple agents are now tested against

    even rare tumors

    5. Biomarkers are ragmenting the

    oncology market

    6. Oncology has become a blockbuster

    machine

    7. Oncology is saturated with sales reps

    8. Oncologists are no longer the sole

    decision makers

    9. Payers are beginning to manage

    oncology

    10. Oncology asset valuation may be a

    bursting bubble

  • 7/31/2019 Oncology Ten Transformative Trends

    3/243

    The rst trend is the growth in the oncologypipeline held by large pharma. Large pharmahas developed and bought its way into oncolo-gy to the point where there were two and a haltimes as many compounds in clinical trials in2010 as in the large pharma pipeline of 2000.

    Furthermore, the pipeline includes many moreearly-stage agents than beore (Figure 1).1

    All the largest pharmaceutical companies thatpublish areas o in-licensing interest activelyrequested additional oncology products ortheir pipelines in 2010 (Figure 2).2 Hence, thetrend toward having more in the oncology pipe-line is likely to continue. The bottom-line eectis that competition is sharply higher based ongross numbers.

    TREND 1Large pharma has dramatically expanded its oncology pipeline

    Figure 1

    Large pharmas oncology pipeline expanded by a actoro 2.5 between 2000 and 2010.

    Figure 2

    In 2010, large companies continued to state an interest in in-licensing oncology assets.

    Evolution o the Large Pharma Oncology Pipeline by Phase, 2000-2010

    140

    120

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0

    Pzer

    Roche

    S-A

    Novartis

    AstraZeneca

    Abbott

    Merck & Co

    BMS

    Eli Lilly

    LargePharmaOncologyTrials

    Angiogenesis

    Apoptosis

    Cytotoxics

    DNArepair

    Growthfactors

    Hematology

    Immunotherapyand

    vaccines

    Kinases

    RNAi

    Signaltransduction

    Solidtumors

    Stemc

    ells

    I II III

    Phase

    32

    4.1x 130

    45

    2.4x 110

    46

    1.5x

    70

    2000 2010

    General interest

    Specic interest

    1Cowen Therapeutic Categories Outlook 2000 and 2010; Company annual reports; National Cancer Institute; clinicaltrials.gov; Campbell Analysis.2Company websites. Accessed January 2010. Note that some large pharma companies (GSK and JNJ, for example) do not publish areas of partnering interest.

  • 7/31/2019 Oncology Ten Transformative Trends

    4/24

    Oncology National Commercial (ONC) Study, 2000-2010 Ten Transormative Trends

    4

    The second trend is the shit away rom thera-peutics such as cytotoxic agents and broadcell-cycle inhibitors that treat cancer with littlespecicity. The agents lling the 2010 pipelineare much more targeted than the agents ll-

    ing the 2000 pipeline (Figure 3).3 The shitis even more dramatic when consideringnovel agents (as opposed to line extensions).Targeted therapeutics have obvious benetsincreased ecacy and potentially lower side

    eects. However, an unintended consequenceo exquisite targeting is exquisite competi-tion. There is now great overlap in particularmechanisms o action and targets among thelarge-pharma oncology pipeline.

    TREND 2The oncology pipeline has become increasingly targeted

    Figure 3

    Oncology therapies are increasingly targeted.

    Cell surace receptor (e.g., ADCC)

    DNA repair

    Growth factor/GFR

    Angiogenesis

    Prolieration (typically kinases)

    Apoptosis

    Other MOA

    Matrix metalloproteinase

    Immune modulator

    Hormone

    Cell cycle (typically cytotoxics)

    4.4%

    3.5%

    9.7%

    5.3%

    5.3%

    2.7%

    9.7%

    1.8%

    7.1%

    10.6%

    39.8%

    7.5%

    3.1%

    17.3%

    18.4%

    20.8%

    4.7%

    2.0%

    5.9%

    4.3%

    16.1%

    1.7X

    0.9X

    1.8X

    3.5X

    2.9X

    1.7X

    0.2X

    0.0X

    0.8X

    0.4X

    0.4X

    LessTargeted

    MoreT

    argeted

    Mechanism o ActionPipeline

    Share, 2000Pipeline

    Share, 2010 Multiple Trend

    3Note: Includes solid tumors and hematologic tumors; excludes supportive care.

  • 7/31/2019 Oncology Ten Transformative Trends

    5/245

    The third trend is the increasing number ocompounds targeting the same molecularpathways. Multiple companies have, orexample, mTOR inhibitors, PARP inhibitors,and VEGF inhibitors in clinical trials. In 2000,oncology agents in clinical trials arose rom

    shing expedition screening eorts thatyielded a generally diverse set o targets and

    mechanisms o action. Large pharmaceuticalcompanies in 2000 could expect somebutar rom intensedirect competition.

    This situation did not outlast the decade. The2010 large pharma oncology pipeline has been

    driven by new understanding o molecularpathways. Agents are increasingly engineered

    to their targets. The same scientic transparencyhas led to intense competition (Figure 4). I wefocus on the top 10 targets (Figure 5), outsideo the top 5, all o the other targets had only oneor two agents targeted to them in the pipelinein 2000. Contrast this with 2010, where many

    more agents are targeting the same pathways(typically kinases within these pathways).

    TREND 3Multiple oncology therapies target the same molecular pathways

    Figure 4

    Oncology agents increasingly overlap.

    2000Low Target Overlap, Low Competition

    2010High Target Overlap, High Competition

    Relatively few agents

    Diverse (if less effective) target pathwayscompounds found

    thro

Embed Size (px)
Recommended