One might almost believe that half of our thinking takes place unconsciously…I have familiarized myself with the factual data of a theoretical and practical problem; I do not think about it again, yet often a few days later the answer to the problem will come into my mind entirely from its own accord; the operation which has produced it, however, remains as much a mystery to me as that of an adding-machine: what has occurred is, again, unconscious rumination.”

Arthur Schopenhauer

Theory of Unconscious ThoughtTheory of Unconscious Thought

A general theory about conscious and unconscious A general theory about conscious and unconscious thoughtthought

Relevant for:Relevant for:

Decision makingDecision makingChoosingChoosingAttitude formationAttitude formationImpression formationImpression formationProblem solvingProblem solvingDiagnosticityDiagnosticityCreativityCreativity

Basically anything that we associate with the labor Basically anything that we associate with the labor of thinking. of thinking.

There are two modes of thought, There are two modes of thought, unconscious and conscious. unconscious and conscious.

The two modes have different The two modes have different characteristics, making them characteristics, making them differentially applicable or differentially applicable or differentially appropriate to use differentially appropriate to use under different circumstances. under different circumstances.

What is conscious thought?What is conscious thought?

Thinking about something Thinking about something while consciously attending to while consciously attending to itit..

What is unconscious thought?What is unconscious thought?

Thinking about something Thinking about something while not attending to itwhile not attending to it..Associating, reasoning, weighing, evaluating while Associating, reasoning, weighing, evaluating while consciousness is thinking about something else.consciousness is thinking about something else.

On a phenomenological level:On a phenomenological level:You mull over where to spend your summer holiday You mull over where to spend your summer holiday (Tuscany? Florida? Nepal?) and after three days of not (Tuscany? Florida? Nepal?) and after three days of not consciously thinking about it at all, you wake up and consciously thinking about it at all, you wake up and think: Thailand it’s going to be!think: Thailand it’s going to be!

Rooms for rentRooms for rent

Participants receive information about 4 apartments.

Each apartment is described by 12 aspects (Apt. A is big, Apt. C is in the Jordaan).

Information for each apartment is presented for 15 secs.

Three apartments have 5 positive and 7 negative aspects.

One is better: 8 positive and 4 negative.

Participants choose an apartment1. Immediately2. After thinking about it for three minutes3. After being distracted for three minutes

(unconscious thought)

Percentage that chose the best apartment.Percentage that chose the best apartment.

From: Dijksterhuis (2004). JPSP, 87, 586-599.

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

condition

immediate

conscious

unconscious

Holistic judgment versus specific aspect.Holistic judgment versus specific aspect.

From: Dijksterhuis (2004). JPSP, 87, 586-599.

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

condition

immediate

conscious

unconscious

Is unconscious thought an active, goal-directed process?

Or is it merely a residual process following the encoding the information?

Choosing a carChoosing a car

AABB

Cars

Participants receive information about 4 cars.Each car is described by 12 aspects One is always the best, another one the worst.

Participants choose a car:

1. After thinking about it for five minutes2. After being distracted for five minutes with the goal to reach a decision3. After merely being distracted for five minutes without the goal to reach a decision (“the experiment is over….”)

Difference in attitude between best and worst car.Difference in attitude between best and worst car.

0

2

4

6

8

10

condition

conscious

unconscious

meredistraction

Cars and houses

Participants receive information about 3 cars and 3 houses.

Each car or house is described by 12 aspects One is always the best, another one the worst.

Participants choose a car and house:

1. After being distracted for five minutes with the goal to reach a decision about the cars1. After being distracted for five minutes with the goal to reach a decision about the houses

Difference in attitude between best and worst cars Difference in attitude between best and worst cars and houses.and houses.

0

2

4

6

8

10

cars houses

unc cars

unc houses

About weighting About weighting

Weighting

Participants receive information about 4 cars.Each car is described by 11 aspects

Conform Alba and Marmorstein 1987Two cars have four important positive aspects, and

seven unimportant negative ones (Quality cars). The other two cars are the opposite (Frequency cars).

Participants rate each car

1. Immediately2. After being distracted for five minutes (unconscious thought).

Much later, all participants rate the importance of each attribute dimension

Weighting. Frequency or quality? Difference in attitude between “Quality cars” and “Frequency cars”.

-5

0

5

10

15

condition

immediate

unconscious

To what extent do they weight according to their own preferred weigthing scheme? Attitude difference correlated with importance scores.

0

0,5

1

condition

immediate

unconscious

Let’s talk about football (1)

Participants predict four games from the Dutch league:1. Immediately2. After thinking about them for two minutes3. After being distracted for two minutes

(unconscious thought).

How accurate are they?

Moderator: Self-reported expertise

Percentages correct predictionPercentages correct prediction

35

40

45

50

55

60

non-experts experts

immediate conscious unconscious

Correlations between knowledge and accuracy for each condition:

r p N

Immediate .01 (ns)119

Conscious .16 (p < .08)126

Unconscious .26 (p < .01) 107

Overall .14 (p < .001) 352

Let’s talk about football (2)

Participants predict five games from the World Cup:1. Immediately2. After thinking about them for two minutes3. After being distracted for two minutes

(unconscious thought).

How accurate are they?

What’s the world ranking of each team?

Moderator: Self-reported expertise

Percentages correct predictionPercentages correct prediction

35

45

55

65

75

85

non-experts experts

immediate conscious unconscious

Correlations between knowledge and accuracy for each condition:

r p N

Immediate .02 (ns) 49Conscious .06 (ns) 39Unconscious .38 (p < .05) 28

Overall .13 (ns) 116

World ranking is a good predictor for results of games (14-4-2).

So if you have the knowledge, you should use it!

Correlations between expertise, world ranking, and accuracy of prediction:

Exp-WR WR-Acc

Immediate .38 .20

Conscious .46 .18

Unconscious .52 .60

Thank you

Nijmegen Unconscious lab:

Ap DijksterhuisRick van BaarenKarin BongersMaarten BosTheis van LeeuwenAndries van der LeijAukje Sjoerdsma

With

Loran NordgrenPamela SmithTeun MeursZeger van OldenChen-bo Zhong