oneNS Coalition October 2nd Meeting Master Slides Including J.P Deveau

REFLECTIONS ON SEPTEMBER MEETING

Overview of September Meeting

• Entrepreneurship & fostering a start-up ecosystem– NS population challenges– The Communitech Example– ICT (Brilliant Labs, UIT, Volta)– OceanTech

• Collective impact as a methodology

Meeting Messages

– Youth retention is an opportunity for NS– Waterloo (similar size, less assets, less

opportunities) used a start-up ecosystem approach to turn around

– There is a lot of community activity in ICT but to scale it, everyone has a role

– In the ocean sector we have a competitive advantage & there is an opportunity to exploit that advantage

4 © 2014 FSG

Collective impact initiatives are characterized by five core conditions

Source: Kania, John and Mark Kramer. Collective Impact. Stanford Social Innovation Review, 2011

COMMON AGENDA

MUTUALLY REINFORCING

ACTIVITIES

CONTINUOUSCOMMUNICATION

BACKBONE INFRASTRUCTURE

SHARED MEASUREMENT

• Common understanding of the problem

• Shared vision for change

• Collecting data and measuring results

• Focus on performance management

• Shared accountability

• Differentiated approaches• Coordination through joint plan of action

• Consistent and open communication

• Focus on building trust

• Separate organization(s) with staff

• Resources and skills to convene and coordinate participating organizations

Mobilizing Broad Based ActionYouth out-migration & Emerging Entrepreneurship

• What is the common understanding of the ‘challenge’?

• What is the shared vision for change?

• What can oneNS members do to ‘mobilize broad based action’?

COMMUNICATIONS UPDATE

Communications

– Committee met• Gaynor, Henry, Rankin• Meeting monthly

– Communications plan/approach discussed• Available

– Agreement to ramp up– Your involvement

• Protocols• 1 pager

Current Activities

• Monthly online update• September newsletter update• Letter to MLAs

– EG: NDP action• Twitter updates• Good morning Nova Scotia

– Good news story on Facebook• Engage NS Share Thanksgiving• Starting to connect groups taking action

– Engage NS/Colchester

Short Term

• Media• Outreach campaign RFP • Urgent Call to Dinner• October online live discussion - Exports• Package to Coalition and MLAs • October content • Call to orgs to commit to a quick win and long

term action working toward goals (timing)• List of ways to take action

MOVING FORWARD

Moving Forward

• Executive Steering Committee for 10 year plan• Workplan updates• Activity updates since September meeting

– Volta – next steps– Brilliant Labs – advancing with business plan – Oceans – progressing

November 14, 2014

• Location: Annapolis Valley Area (tbc)• Proposed meeting: additional time potential• Additional proposed activities/opportunities• Meeting Focus:

– Youth & international student retention– GHP Connector Program– Immigration Action Team update

November 27, 2014

• Location: Halifax area • Proposed Meeting time: 2:00 – 5:30 (tbc)• Meeting Focus:

– Youth & Social Entrepreneurship– Marc Kielburger, Co-Founder, Me To We

• OneNS Holiday Reception

NOVA SCOTIA’S GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS & TRADE

October 2 – Key Theme

Reaching our International Trade GoalsFraming the Discussion

1. What is the most significant change that will improve NS Trade?

2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts?

THOMAS STORRINGReaching our international trade goals

Reaching our International Trade GoalsDiscussion Questions

1. What is the most significant change that will improve the NS Trade?


NS in a 2 Speed WorldFraming the Discussion

1. What is the most significant change that will improve the NS position?


KEVIN LYNCH

GLOBALIZATION, TECHNOLOGY AND DEMOGRAPHICS ARE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL GROWTH EQUATION

GLOBALIZATION, TECHNOLOGY AND DEMOGRAPHICS ARE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL GROWTH EQUATION

Kevin G. Lynch

Vice-Chair BMO Financial Group,and

Former Clerk of the Privy Council and Secretary to Cabinet, Government of Canada

“One Nova Scotia” RoundtableHalifax, Nova Scotia

October 2, 2014

21One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014

Observation 1: The context facing Canada and Nova Scotia is changing

The core question facing us in Nova Scotia is: how well and how quickly are we adapting to this change?

The demographic imperative - we’re

aging, with profound impacts

Globalization 2.0 - the hyper-

connected world

Global financial crisis - with

endless consequences

Technology revolution - changing

everything

The competitiveness paradigm shift -

need an innovation engine


Observation 2: The new global economic reality is a “two-speed world”

2-speed World: By the Numbers

2012 2013 2014

2015

Avg growth 2012-15

Emerging Economies 5.1 4.7 4.6 5.2 4.9

Emerging Asia 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.6

China 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.5

Advanced Economies 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.7

US 2.8 1.9 1.7 3.0 2.4

EU-

0.7 -0.4 1.1 1.5 0.4

Canada 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.1

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2014

2-Speed World: The Visual

1-2%growt

h

6-7%growth

5%growth


Observation 3: Trade diversification drives growth

Rank Top Canadian Export Markets, 2013

% of all 2013 Exports of Goods and Services

Size of Economy (2013 USD Billion, GDP)

4-year Average Growth: 2013-2016

1 United States 75.9% 16,800 2.7%

2 China 4.3% 9,181 7.4%

3 United Kingdom 3.0% 2,536 2.4%

4 Japan 2.3% 4,902 1.1%

5 Mexico 1.1% 1,259 2.8%

6 Hong Kong 1.0% 274 3.6%

7 Netherlands 0.8% 800 0.8%

8 South Korea 0.7% 1,222 3.5%

9 Germany 0.7% 3,636 1.3%

10 France 0.7% 2,737 1.1%

11 India 0.6% 1,871 5.7%

12 Belgium 0.5% 507 1.0%

13 Brazil 0.5% 2,243 2.4%

14 Norway 0.4% 511 1.6%

15 Italy 0.4% 2,072 0.3%

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, Oct 2013, Stats Canada


Observation 4: Lack of trade diversification has costs

Export Values comparing actual Canadian activity weighting with China and Emerging Market Economies to what it

would be with US weighting

Exports to Emerging Market Economies

% Share of total exports

Note: Bank of Canada foreign activity measures calculated based on 2012 share of Canada and US exports to China and select EMEs. The numbers displayed represent the gap between 2013Q2 exports and the level of exports implied by the recalculated foreign activity measures.Values expressed in 2007 chained dollars.Sources, IMF, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada calculations. Las Observance 2013Q2

Canada UK Germany US Japan Australia0

10

20

30

40

50

Source: IMF Last observation: 2012

%


Observation 5: Asia is a market for Canada’s natural resources, and much more

Sources: OECD, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries , http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf; McKinsey. Global Insight, February 2009; MGI China Model, February 2009; MGI

Numbers (millions) and Share (percent) of the Global Middle Class

2009 2020

North America 338 18% 333 10%

Europe 664 36% 703 22%

Central and South America

181 10% 251 8%

Asia Pacific 525 28% 1740 54%

Sub-Saharan Africa

32 2% 57 2%

Middle East and North Africa

105 6% 165 5%

World 1845 100% 3249 100%

Private Domestic Consumption2020 (Forecast)

CAGR2007-2020(%)

2.2

1.5

6.3

1.9

2.3

3.8

1.2

1.5

8.3

1.3

http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf


Observation 6: There are many untapped export opportunities in Asia for Nova Scotia firms

Consumers - $22 T consumption in emerging markets in 2025 and almost 2B middle class consumers - wanting better foodstuffs, better housing, better financial services, better education, etc.

Natural Resources - A 30% increase in global energy demand, of which China and India alone will account for 60% by 2035.

Infrastructure - $27 T expected infrastructure spend in emerging Asia, creating opportunities in engineering services, consulting, financing , specialty services, as well as basic materials.

Agriculture and Food - Middle class wants variety in agriculture and foodstuff as well as increased food safety.

Tourism - approximately 80 million outbound Chinese travelers in 2012, growing to over 110 million in 2015 - fastest growing segment in the world.

Education - 1 B Asian youth to educate in any given year, and Canada/Nova Scotia have high quality, reasonably priced product offerings.

Health Care - Spending expected to triple across Asia by 2020 but public systems are rudimentary-to-mediocre, and private systems are mixed.


Observation 7: Consider the energy opportunities, and risks

CANADA’S ENERGY SECURITY CONUNDRUM

US Hydrocarbon Supply

US Hydrocarbon Demand

+ 100% reliance on US market

for gas, oil and electricity exports

+Increasing Canadian

unconventional supply capacity: oil sands + shale

gas

= Declining Canadian security

of energy demand

Global energy demand:

• >33% growth by 2035• <5% growth in OECD• China demand > U.S.

Global energy supply:

• Shale oil, oil sands hhh• Shale gas hhhh• Renewables h

Energy technology:

• Fracking, oil sands• Renewables • Water remediation; CO2

Global

risk/uncertainty:

• Geopolitical: Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, Russia, South China Sea

r r

rr

Global energy equation:

r

• Shifts in security of global demand/supply

• U.S. energy self-sufficiency

• Global gas market?


Observation 8: Consider the food and agriculture opportunities, what we’re capable of and what we’re missing

50

85 90 94

100% =

ROW

China

Dairy

383

Beef

260

Poultry

173

Pork

400

Sources: McKinsey. USDA, NBS, Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT)

China’s share of consumption%, 100% = $B Total

Agricultural Resources

Ranking

Lentils 1st

Linseed 1st

Mustard Seed 1st

Dry Peas 1st

Forest 2nd

Barley 2nd

Canola 2nd

Blueberries 2nd

Cranberries 2nd

Mixed Grain 2nd

Wheat 8th

Canada’s global production rankings for agricultural resources

50

15 10 6


Observation 9: Consider the education opportunities, with Australia the best example of what is possible

SOURCE: McKinsey “International Education: A Key Driver of Canada’s Future Prosperity,” Advisory Panel on Canada’s International Education Strategy, August 2012; Government of Quebec

International student market share (est.)

Percent

InternationalstudentsNumber

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Canada

Australia

10

18

5

13

428,000

723,000

240,000

557,000


Observation 10: Consider the value added tourism opportunities, and what it will take to capture them

Chart Title

Mongolia 0.3

Canada

0.3

0.3Germany

0.4

0.4

Indonesia 0.6

UK

1.1

Cambodia

Thailand

Australia

Singapore

1.5

1.2

1.0

USA

Russia

0.7

0.8

Vietnam

1.4

France

1.6

1.7

Taiwan

Japan

Malaysia

China international travelers by destination

Millions, 2011

1.8

2.4South Korea

SOURCE: McKinsey. CEIC, China tourism yearbook, Euromonitor (2011) Ctrip survey 2/2013; China Tourism Academy “China outbound travel satisfaction survey”

Singapore 79.5

Germany 80.0

South Africa 80.2

Brazil 80.3

Argentina 81.0

France 82.3

New Zealand

82.5Spain

82.6

Italy 82.7

Canada 84.5

Chinese tourist satisfaction rate

Chart Title


Observation 11: How well positioned are Canada and Nova Scotia for success in today’s global economy?

In today’s hyper-competitive world, the question for Nova Scotians is: is being “pretty good”, good enough?

Rankings

Global Competitive-ness Index (WEF)

Innovation Capacity (WEF)

ProductivityGDP per employed worker, current prices, USD (OECD)

Soundness of Financial Systems (WEF)

Net Debt to GDP, 2013(IMF)(lowest to highest)

Tertiary Education, % of Population (OECD)

K-12 Pisa Results: Math (OECD)

Number of Universities in Top 100 (Times Higher Education)

Ranking of Cities – EIU Global Liveability(# of cities in top 10; ties settled based on rankings)

Institutional Strength and Resilience, OECD Countries (World Bank)

Norway

Finland

Sweden

Estonia

Denmark

12th

18th

Canada

New Zealand

South Africa

Hong Kong

Singapore

1st

58th

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

Australia

Canada

5th

1st

Switzerland

Singapore

Finland

Germany

United States

14th

5th

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

Canada

UnitedStates

Canada

Japan

United States

New Zealand

Finland

1st

3rd

China (Shanghai)

Singapore

Hong Kong

Taipei

Korea

13th

36th

Australia

Canada

Austria

Finland

New Zealand

2nd

n/a

Switzerland

Finland

Germany

Israel

United States

27th

5th

Luxembourg

Norway

US

Ireland

Belgium

17th

3rd

Finland

New Zealand

Sweden

Switzerland

Norway

9th

17th


GLOBAL 54UAE 79China 79Singapore 73Indonesia 72India 69Malaysia 65Canada 60Netherlands 60Mexico 59Hong Kong 59Australia 58Brazil 57Germany 57Argentina 53U.K. 52Sweden 51S. Korea 51S. Africa 50U.S. 49France 46Japan 44Italy 43Turkey 41Spain 39Ireland 39Russia 37Poland 35

Global Trust Index, 2014

Financial services

Media

Banks

Chemicals

Energy

Pharmaceuticals

Consumer health companies

Telecommunications

Brewing and spirits

Consumer packaged goods

Entertainment

Food and beverage

Automotive

Consumer electronics manufacturing

Technology

50%

51%

51%

55%

59%

59%

60%

63%

64%

65%

65%

66%

70%

75%

79%

Global Trust in Sectors, 2014

Observation 12: Trust matters for leading change


Observation 13: Culture and attitudes matter to success for Nova Scotia in this profoundly changing world

• We need to avoid “short term-ism” --- it is hard to build for our long term future with a quarterly mindset. A focused, long term Strategic Plan, with clear implementation milestones and accountabilities, is a good place to start.

• We need to avoid “status quo-ism” --- it cannot be a strategy for long term success in a profoundly changing world. Re-orienting the economy towards more innovation-intensive firms, particularly start ups, is key.

• We need to avoid “parochial-ism” --- everyone needs clear “going global” strategies today. Job #1 for Canada and Nova Scotia is focussed, export market diversification.

• We need to avoid “risk aversion” in policy and operations. Consider a number of immediate innovations: reverse trade missions; foreign student strategy; incubator(s); pervasive co-op; and Chinese tourism as possible places.

NS in a 2 Speed WorldDiscussion Questions


2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts

The Clearwater Example Framing the Discussion



J.P. DEVEAUGlobal Competitiveness and Trade Action Team

Global Competitiveness and Trade Action Team

2 October 2014

Agenda

• Mandate of the Global Competitiveness and Trade Action Team• Tonight’s objective • Initial ideas• Next steps

38

The Global Competitiveness and Trade Action Team will focus on these goals to be achieved by 2024:

39

GOAL 5: VALUE OF EXPORTSNova Scotia will have increased the total annual value of exports (international and inter-provincial), currently in the $14B range, by 50% to exceed $20B

$20B

850 1275GOAL 6: FIRMS PARTICIPATING IN EXPORT TRADEThe number of Nova Scotia firms participating in export trade will have increased by 50% over the current level of 850

GOAL 15: FISHERIES AND AGRICULTURE EXPORTSThe value of exports from the fisheries (including aquaculture) and the agricultural sectors will each have doubled on a sustainable basis

Game Changer VI: Rebuilding Our Trade Economy

$14B

Nova Scotia should embrace a free trade orientation and become a champion among provinces for the reduction of both internal and external trade barriers.

What is the path to achieving these goals?

• Companies who have something exportable (and are not) must start to export

• Companies who are currently exporting must increase their exports

• We must attract companies who can export to NS

40

This begs the following question for each group -

• Companies who have something exportable (and are not) must start to export

‒ Why are you not exporting?

• Companies who are currently exporting must increase their exporting

‒ What does it take for you to double your exports?

• We must attract companies who can export to NS

‒ What does it take for you to come to NS?

41

Tonight’s objective

• To review and seek feedback on initial ideas to move the needle on global competitiveness and trade

42

Drivers of competitiveness and productivity per Michael Porter

43

Quality of the Overall Business

Environment• Improve business

environment by focusing efforts on strategic sectors/clusters

Speed up regulations,

permits, licensing

Remove unnecessary costs of doing

business

Design policies to

support growth

1


44

Cluster Development

• Make strategic choices to focus on sectors/clusters with competitive advantages and growth potential

Leverage existing strengths when

building/ choosing clusters

Compete to serve

international markets

Align policies and programs to

support

2


45

Policy Coordination Among Multiple Levels

of Geography/ Government

• Relentlessly support improvements to

– Capital spending– Existing processes– Training and education– Innovation– Entrepreneurship with

global innovation

Efforts should support

enhancements to productivity and innovationUse existing

resources differently/

better

3


46

Quality of the Overall Business Environment

• Improve business environment by focusing efforts on strategic sectors/clusters

Policy Coordination Among Government,

Academia, Private Sector

• Relentlessly support improvements to

– Capital spending– Existing processes– Training and education– Innovation– Entrepreneurship with

global innovation

Cluster Development

• Make strategic choices to focus on sectors/clusters with competitive advantages and growth potential

Speed up regulations,

permits, licensing

Remove unnecessary costs of doing

business

Design policies to

support growth

Efforts should support

enhancements to productivity and innovationUse existing

resources differently/

better

Leverage existing strengths when

building/ choosing clusters

Compete to serve

international markets

Align policies and programs to

support

Start with the business environment

47

Quality of the Overall

Business Environment

IMMEDIATE FOCUS (next 6 months)

• Conduct research with:a. Successful exporters –

what would it take for you to double exports?

b. Potential exporters – what prevents you from exporting?

• Identify short-term regulatory changes and other ways to improve the business environment to encourage exports

1

Then identify the most attractive clusters

48

LONGER TERM FOCUS(starting spring 2015)

• Discuss development of cluster strategy at spring coalition meeting

• Proceed to make strategic choices about most attractive clusters for NS

• Develop roadmap to build the chosen clusters

Cluster Development

2

Coordinate policies to advance the chosen clusters

49

LONG TERM FOCUS

• Implement roadmap to build the chosen clusters including policy coordination

Policy Coordination

Among Government,

Academia, Private Sector

3

What role can the private sector play in global competitiveness and trade?

50

Support 4Front recommendations

• Strategic competitiveness assessment

• Industry collaboration• Reverse trade mission

Be vocal and organized

• Support initiatives where we can compete globally

• Support the view that the private sector creates jobs

Provide mentorship • Students• Entrepreneurs• Other companies

Enhance private sector leadership

(including leadership of NSBI)

Next steps

51

The Clearwater Example (?)Discussion Questions



DEFINING A COMMON AGENDANova Scotia’s Global Competitiveness & Trade

oneNS & Global Trade

• Informing the development of a comprehensive 10 year plan

• Mobilizing broad based action

Discussion Questions

• What is the common understanding of the ‘challenge’?

• What is the shared vision for change?• What measure(s) will indicate success?• What can oneNS members do to ‘mobilize

broad based action’?• What will oneNS members do to mobilize

broad based action?

Meeting Close

• Meeting Reflections– Initial thoughts– Most important take away– Opportunities for improvements

• Communications Support– Key meeting themes

ONE NS COALITION Next Meeting November 14 – Annapolis Valley

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oneNS Coalition October 2nd Meeting Master Slides Including J.P Deveau

Presentations & Public Speaking