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A Coruña, LCG; A. Merino Benitez, SCL; Aberdeen, ABZ; Abu Dhabi Intl, AUH; Acapulco, ACA; Adana, ADA; Addis Ababa Intl, ADD; Adelaide, ADL; Adnan Menderes, ADB; Aeroparque Jorge Newbery, AEP; Ajaccio Campo dell’Oro, AJA; Al-Massira, AGA; Albany Intl, ALB; Albuquerque Intl, ABQ; Alexandria, ALY; Alicante, ALC; Almeria, LEI; Amerigo Vespucci, FLR; Amilcar Cabral Intl, SID; Anchorage Intl, ANC; Antalya, AYT; Antonio Carlos Jobim, GIG; Arlanda, ARN; Asturias, OVD; Aswan, ASW; Ataturk, IST; Athens, ATH; Atlanta, ATL; Atlantic City Intl, ACY; Auckland Intl, AKL; Augusto C Sandino Intl, MGA; Aulnat, CFE; Austin-Bergstrom Intl, AUS; Bahrain Intl, BAH; Baltimore, BWI; Bamako, BKO; Bandaranaike Intl, CMB; Bangkok, BKK; Bangor, BGR; Barajas, MAD; Barcelona, BCN; Basel-Mulhouse, BSL; Bastia-Poretta, BIA; Baton Rouge Metro, BTR; Beauvais-Tille , BVA; Beijing Capital, PEK; Beirut, BEY; Belfast Intl, BFS; Ben Gurion Intl, TLV; Beograd, BEG; Bergamo Orio Al Serio, BGY; Bermuda Intl, BDA; Biarritz/Bayonne/Anglet, BIQ; Bilbao, BIO; Billund, BLL; Birmingham Intl, BHM; Birmingham Intl, BHX; Blagnac, TLS; Blue Grass, LEX; Bodoe, BOO; Boise, BOI; Borispol, KBP; Boston, BOS; Bourgas, BOJ; Bradley Intl, BDL; Bremen, BRE; Brisbane Intl, BNE; Bristol, BRS; Brnik, LJU; Bromma, BMA; Brussels, BRU; Brussels South , CRL; Bucharest-Otopeni, OTP; Buffalo Niagara Intl, BUF; Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena, BUR; C. Colombo, GOA; Cairns Intl, CNS; Cairo Intl, CAI; Calcutta, CCU; Cal-gary Intl, YYC; Cancun, CUN; Cape Town Intl, CPT; Capodichino, NAP; Cardiff International, CWL; Carthage, TUN; Cataratas de Iguazu, IGR; Changi, SIN; Charles de Gaulle, CDG; Charlotte/Douglas, CLT; Chattanooga Metro, CHA; Cheju Intl, CJU; Chengdu Shuangliu Intl, CTU; Chennai, MAA; Chiang Kai Shek, TPE; Chiang Mai, CNX; Chiang Rai Intl , CEI; Christchurch Intl, CHC; Ciampino, CIA; Cincinnati/N. Kentucky, CVG; Citta di Torino, TRN; Cleveland Hopkins, CLE; Cologne Bonn, CGN; Colo-rado Springs, COS; Columbia Metro, CAE; Coolangatta, OOL; Copenhagen, CPH; Cork, ORK; Cozumel, CZM; Dalaman, DLM; Dallas/Ft Worth, DFW; Dane County Regl, MSN; Dayton Intl, DAY; Daytona Beach Intl, DAB; Dei Legionari, TRS; Denver, DEN; Des Moines Intl, DSM; Detroit Metro, DTW; Domodedovo, DME; Dortmund, DTM; Dorval, YUL; Dresden, DRS; Dubai Intl, DXB; Dublin, DUB; Dubrovnik, DBV; Dunedin, DUD; Durban Intl, DUR; Düsseldorf, DUS; East London, ELS; East Midlands, EMA; Edinburgh, EDI; Edmonton Airports, YEG; Eilat Intl, ETH; Eindhoven, EIN; El Paso Intl, ELP; El Plumerillo, MDZ; El Salvador Intl, SAL; Entebbe Intl, EBB; Entzheim, SXB; Eppley Airfield, OMA; Ernesto Cortissoz, BAQ; Esenboga, ESB; Exeter , EXT; Ezeiza Ministropistarini, EZE; Fairbanks Intl, FAI; Faro, FAO; Felix Houphouet-Boigny, ABJ; Ferihegy, BUD; Fiumicino, FCO; Flamingo, BON; Flesland, BGO; Flughafen Graz, GRZ; Frankfurt Main, FRA; Frejorgues, MPL; Fresno Yosemite Intl, FAT; Friedrich-shafen, FDH; Ft Lauderdale/Hollywood , FLL; Ft Wayne Intl, FWA; Fuerteventura, FUE; Fukuoka Intl, FUK; Funchal, FNC; G Bush , IAH; Gal Galilei Intl, PSA; Gatwick, LGW; Gen. Rafael Buelna, MZT; General Mitchell Intl, MKE; Geneva, GVA; George, GRJ; Gerald R Ford Intl, GRR; Gimhae, PUS; Gimpo, GMP; Girona/Costa Brava, GRO; Glasgow, GLA; Gral Abelardo Rodriguez, TIJ; Gral Ignacio Pesqueira Garcia, HMO; Gran Canaria, LPA; Granada, GRX; Greater Peoria Regl, PIA; Gregorio Luperon, POP; Guadeloupe-Pole Caraibes, PTP; Guangzhou Baiyun Intl, CAN; Guernsey, GCI; Gugliemo Marconi, BLQ; Gulfport Biloxi Regl, GPT; Habib Bourguiba, MIR; Hahn , HHN; Halifax Intl, YHZ; Hamburg Föhlsbuttel, HAM; Haneda, HND; Hannover-Langehagen, HAJ; Harstad/Narvik, EVE; Hasannuddin, UPG; Hat Yai, HDY; Hato, CUR; Heathrow, LHR; Helsinki Vantaa, HEL; Ho Chi Minh City, SGN; Hong Kong, HKG; Horsching, LNZ; Houari Boumédiene, ALG; Huntsville Intl, HSV; Hurghada, HRG; Hyderabad, HYD; Ibiza, IBZ; Incheon, ICN; Indianapolis Intl, IND; Indira Gandhi Intl, DEL; Ing Aer Ambrosio L Taravella, COR; Innsbruck, INN; Int Afonso Pena, CWB; Int Augusto Severo, NAT; Int Campo Grande, CGR; Int Cataratas , IGU; Int de Brasilia-Pres Juscelino, BSB; Int de Congonhas, CGH; Int de Macapa, MCP; Int do Guarulhos, GRU; Int Eduardo Gomes, MAO; Int Hercillo Luz, FLN; Int Pinto Martins, FOR; Int Salgado Filho, POA; Int Tancredo Neves, CNF; Int Val de Caes, BEL; Int. Guararapes, REC; Intl Leon M’ba Libreville, LBV; Ivato, TNR; Jackson Intl, JAN; Jacksonville Intl, JAX; Jerez, XRY; JF Kennedy, JFK; Joao Paulo Ii, PDL; Joe Foss Field, FSD; Johannesburg Intl, JNB; John Wayne, SNA; Jomo Kenyatta Intl, NBO; Jorge Chavez, LIM; Jose Marti Intl, HAV; Juan Santamaria Intl, SJO; Juarez International, MEX; Kagoshima, KOJ; Kansai Intl, KIX; Kansas City Intl, MCI; Kaohsiung Intl, KHH; Karmoey, HAU; Keflavik Intl Airport, KEF; King Abdulaziz Intl, JED; King Fahd Intl, DMM; King Khaled Intl, RUH; Kingsford Smith, SYD; Kjevik, KRS; Klagenfurt, KLU; Kota Kinabalu Intl, BKI; Kotoka Intl, ACC; Kuala Lumpur, KUL; Kuching Intl, KCH; Kurumoch , KUF; Kuwait Intl, KWI; La Guardia, LGA; La Palma, SPC; Labuan, LBU; Lachinita, MAR; Landvetter, GOT; Langnes, TOS; Lanzarote, ACE; Larnaca, LCA; Las Americas, SDQ; Las Vegas Mc-Carran, LAS; Le Lamentin, FDF; Leeds/Bradford, LBA; Lehigh Valley, ABE; Leipzig/Halle, LEJ; Leopold Sedar Senghor, DKR; Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz, PVR; Lille Lesquin, LIL; Linate, LIN; Lisbon, LIS; Liverpool, LPL; London City, LCY; London Luton, LTN; Long Beach, LGB; Los Angeles, LAX; Los Cabos, SJD; Louisville Intl, SDF; Lourdes-Tarbes, LDE; Love Field, DAL; Luis Eduardo Magalhaes, SSA; Luis Muñoz Marin, SJU; Lukou Intl , NKG; Luleè, LLA; Lusaka Intl, LUN; Luxembourg, LUX; Luxor, LXR; Macau Intl, MFM; Mackay, MKY; Malaga, AGP; Male’ Intl, MLE; Malmô/Sturup, MMX; Malpensa, MXP; Malta Intl, MLA; Manchester, MAN; Manila, MNL; Maputo Intl, MPM; Marco Polo, VCE; Mariano Escobedo, MTY; Mariscal Sucre, UIO; Marseille Provence, MRS; Mcghee Tyson, TYS; Memphis Intl, MEM; Menara, RAK; Menorca, MAH; Mer-ignac, BOD; Miami, MIA; Mid-Continent, ICT; Midway Intl, MDW; Miguel Hidalgo Y Costilla, GDL; Minneapolis/St Paul, MSP; Miri, MYY; Mobile Regl, MOB; Mohamed V, CMN; Moi Intl, MBA; Mumbai, BOM; Munich, MUC; Münster-Osnabrueck, FMO; Murcia, MJV; Murtala Muhammed, LOS; Myrtle Beach Intl, MYR; Nadi, NAN; Nantes-Atlantique, NTE; Narita, NRT; Nashville Intl, BNA; New Orleans Intl, MSY; Newark, EWR; Newcastle, NCL; Ngurah Rai, DPS; Nice-Cote d’Azur, NCE; Nnamdi Azikwe, ABV; Noi Bai Intl, HAN; Norfolk Intl, ORF; Norman Manley Intl, KIN; North Las Vegas , VGT; Norwich , NWI; Nuremberg, NUE; O’Hare, ORD; Oakland Intl, OAK; Oaxaca Xoxocotlan, OAX; Okecie, WAW; Okinawa Naha, OKA; Ontario Intl, ONT; Ophira, SSH; Oporto, OPO; Orlando, MCO; Orly, ORY; Osaka (Itami) Int’L, ITM; Oslo, OSL; Ottawa Intl, YOW; Palese, BRI; Palm Beach, PBI; Palm Springs, PSP; Palma, PMI; Paphos, PFO; Papola Casale, BDS; Pau-Pyrenees, PUF; Penang Intl, PEN; Pen-sacola Regl, PNS; Perpignan/Rivesaltes, PGF; Perth, PER; Philadelphia , PHL; Phoenix Sky Harbor, PHX; Phuket, HKT; Piarco, POS; Piedmont Triad Intl, GSO; Pittsburgh, PIT; Pochentong, PNH; Polonia, MES; Port Columbus Intl, CMH; Port Elizabeth, PLZ; Port Harcourt, PHC; Portland , PDX; Praha-Ruzyne, PRG; Prestwick, PIK; Princess Juliana Intl, SXM; Pulkova, LED; Punta Aguila, LRM; Punta Cana, PUJ; Pyrzowice , KTW; Quad City Intl, MLI; Queen Alia Intl, AMM; R Reagan , DCA; Raleigh-Durham Intl, RDU; Ramon Villeda Morales Intl, SAP; Reina Beatrix, AUA; Rejon, MID; Reno/Tahoe Intl, RNO; Reus, REU; Richmond Intl, RIC; Riga Intl, RIX; Roanoke Regl, ROA; Roland Garros, RUN; Rostov on Don, ROV; Rotterdam, RTM; Sacramento Intl, SMF; Saint-Exupery, LYS; Salt Lake City, SLC; Salzburg, SZG; San Antonio Intl, SAT; San Diego, SAN; San Francisco, SFO; San Jose , SJC; Sana’a, SAH; Sangster Intl, MBJ; Santa Barbara, SBA; Santiago de Compostela, SCQ; Sapporo Chitose, CTS; Sarasota-Bradenton Intl, SRQ; Savanah Intl, SAV; Schiphol, AMS; Schoenefeld, SXF; Seattle Tacoma, SEA; Seeb Intl, MCT; Sevilla, SVQ; Shanghai Hongqia, SHA; Shannon, SNN; Sharjah Intl, SHJ; Shenzhen Huangtian Intl, SZX; Shermetyevo, SVO; Shreveport Regl, SHV; Simon Bolivar, GYE; Simon Bolivar en Maiquetia, CCS; Simpangtiga , PKU; Skopje, SKP; Sm Badaruddin Ii , PLM; Soekarno Hatta Intl, CGK; Sofia, SOF; Sola, SVG; South Bend Regl, SBN; Southampton, SOU; Southwest Florida Intl, RSW; Split, SPU; Spokane Intl, GEG; Springfield-Branson Regl, SGF; SSR Intl, MRU; St Louis, STL; St Petersburg-Clearwater Intl , PIE; Stansted, STN; Stewart Intl, SWF; Stuttgart,
download forecasts for the world’s top 800 airports
Because a package system cannot ideally suit all major
forecast users, customization is a vital part of the
package and is more often employed than not:
n the client is provided with a private web site; in
practice a sub-domain of www.air4casts.com
n the client’s site is entirely anonymous with no
mention of the company name; confidentiality is thereby
assured
n within the site all of the search packages can be
rebuilt to suit specific data needs; the data which drives
the site can be refined so that only immediately relevant
information is presented to users
n the client controls site access and can track activity
on it even to the level of individual searches
n regular data download structures can be tailored to
fit the requirements of company planning programmes
both in terms of content and of timing.
Customization
Key programme features
How it WorksTwice in every month the monthly international, domestic
and total passenger numbers for the world’s largest
800 airports are forecast with three date horizons; the
forecast can be for next month, next year or it can be for
the whole of 2040.
TopicalityForecasts are updated twice a month with the clear
intention of allowing subscribers to access forecast data
which is based on the most up to the minute historical
passenger information; the update points are the middle
and end of each month.
Extensive Data CoverageThe project covers:
n 800+ airports and rising
n 696 cities
n 126 countries and
n 6 regions.
In total there are more than 800,000 forecast lines which
are available for query and download.
The 800 airport forecasts are built up from:
n separate international and
n domestic passenger forecasts and
n where data is scarce, from the total line.
Within each category, forecasts are available by:
n month
n quarter and
n year plus
n year on year changes at the
n month, quarter and annual levels.
Forecast HorizonsThere are three time period modules:
n 2009 - 2012 concentrating on monthly changes
n 2020 with emphasis on month and year
n 2040 looking at annuals and annual growth
All three are included in a single subscription to the
forecast package.
Searching for DataThe standard online package, that is before any client
customization, allows separate searches across and within:
n each of the three forecast horizons for
n monthly, quarterly and annual data by
n airport, city, country and region plus
n a world passenger total.
Outputting DataThere are three simple options:
n individual search results are sent directly to screen and
from screen, they may be separately downloaded to users’
spreadsheets
or
n forecast data can be bulk downloaded for incorporation
into subscribers’ own data base structures
or
n there is a stand-alone and cross-platform data base
which can operate on clients’ equipment without the
need for separate software installation.
Air4Casts +44 203 086 9315 www.air4casts.com
Online forecast method
The System in OutlineThe forecasting method has three main features in that it is:
n systematic which means that, excepting the most extreme
circumstances, there is no intervention, no cosmetic adjustment to
“awkward” forecast outcomes
n demand side based, because the essential supply side capacity and
capacity expansion information is not available for all airports which
it would need to be if the system is to operate even handedly
n time-series based with the specific exclusion of external macro
economic or social infrastructure variables.
An Iterative Forecasting Approach
A description of the internal mechanics of the forecasting system can
be reached through the Method Page on the Air4casts web site.
In summary, for each line of data, the software makes 35 passes and
produces 35 forecasts to determine the best fit; the forecast which
implies the lowest error spread.
A “recommended” forecast is produced by the system; a
recommendation which the forecast manager is then invited to
accept.
At this point there still exists the option to select for subscribers
one of the other 34 forecast options which were not preferred by
the system on automatic.
The advantage of this control is that the functioning of the automatic
system is subject to intelligent scrutiny, which is especially relevant
when a data series departs from a stable state
Forecast ErrorBecause the methodology is systematic it is
capable of producing a rigorous analysis of
forecast error.
By calculating the standard deviation of
forecast errors for each line of data and
by applying to each the most rudimentary
normal curve theory, an error range linked
to probability is generated.
A system which uses judgement cannot
benefit from this feature but error is itself a
vital element in any subsequent process.
Demand SideThe online system is entirely based on
the analysis and projection of passenger
numbers over time. It specifically excludes
any supply side input which would normally
comprise capacity expansion planning as
well as those factors which limit passengers.
Behind this decision lies the lack of
consistent and comparable airport capacity
projections which are put into the public
domain by the airports themselves.
In the majority of cases this omission poses
no difficulty but it does become an issue
when growth rates which are exponential in
the short-term are projected long term.
External factors which fall into the
macro-economic, socio-economic and
infrastructure, are also specifically excluded.
The benefits of multi-variate analysis have
never yet been sufficiently demonstrated in
models which are not required to produce
multiple solutions and especially so when
many of the available passenger forecast
inputs are themselves subject to significant
forecast errors.
Air4Casts +44 203 086 9315
Base Data
Each data line which is presented to the forecasting system must
contain monthly observations whose start point is no later than
January 1991.
In the case of some airports there is monthly back history to 1977
but susbscibers should note that access to the base historical data is
not included as part of the forecast package.
The sources of data have historically included ICAO and currently
concentrate on the monthly returns from ACI with increasing
reliance on airport authorities’ own postings on their web sites.
There are sophisticated methods in place to cope with “missing
data” where for some reason a particular return for a particular
month is unavailable.
Subscription and customization
Options for subscribersSeveral options exist to give subscribers the greatest flexibility in picking the option which best suits their needs. There are six broad choices to suit a wide rang of subscribers.
Multi-Site Licence
The multi-site option permits:
n an unlimited number of users from the same Company to access
the forecast package
n A dedicated and fully customizable company web site available to all
employees irrespective of location.
n considerable customization of the package; see a later Section
Single-Site Licence
Identical to the Multi-Site module except:
n the Licence is restricted to users at that site and
n customization is not included
Annual Subscription
n an annual subscription, while evidently self-explanatory, runs for 365
days from the subscription date
US Airports Package
n the search ability is restricted to US Airports
n the national summary is, of course, for the USA
n the regional summary includes Canada within North America.
This array of options is designed to meet the needs of planning execu-
tives who have a constant need for access to up to date forecasting
information which reflects market changes.
Alternatively, it will also serve those whose need is occasional and
especially annual; it is constructed to fit with the rigours of company
budgeting and planning which may need to be compressed into a short
time period.
Subscription cost
The annual subscription costs for each of the basic options are:
Multi-Site Single-Site Full Package Global - 800 airports £15000 £9000FastPax Data Pack £3500 £2000 US Airports Package Annual £5500 £2500 There is an order form at the back of this brochure. There is also the facility to order online at www.air4casts.com via the secure Worldpay system. Online subscribers gain instant access to the forecasts.
Subscribers may upgrade their subscription level at any time.
Customization
At the very heart of the system there is the important option for full
corporate subscribers to customize its operation.
Customization works by creating, for each client, an entirely separate
though anonymous web site to which only the client has access. The
site, in practical terms, is a sub-domain of www.air4casts.com.
This means that only the relevant data for the relevant time periods
are loaded. That could mean, for example, focusing on:
n international passengers only
n for selected airports
n with corporate national and regional groupings
n monthly from 2009 to 2012.
Developing for the client a private and bespoke forecasting web site
The full subscription customization would extend to:
n on-screen search options
n the data the client receives automatically each month.
The client also controls:
n who, within his own organization, has access to the data base and
can know
n the number and nature of data searches which are made.
The customization option should only apply to the annual subscription
and, depending upon the degree of complexity involved, there may be a
moderate set up charge in excess of the annual cost.
Air4Casts +44 203 086 9315 www.air4casts.com
The Company
BACKGROUND TO OUR COMPANY
Air4casts was established in 1990 by a small group of marketing, consulting and systems professionals. They shared business
backgrounds in Beverages, Cosmetics, Fashion, Oil and Management Consultancy. They came together to offer a unique forecasting,
analysis and research service for the Aviation and Travel Retail Industries.
Today Air4casts has established a reputation as an acknowledged leader
in air passenger forecasting, research and consulting. Our client base is
broad and ranges from airports and airlines to financial institutions, with
a specialist division which is devoted to the specific needs of the Travel
Retail industry.
Our headquarters, research, administration and marketing functions are
based in the London head office.
OUR SERVICES
Airport Passenger Forecasting
At the root of the Company’s forecasting services is the monthly forecast and forecast update of 800 of the world’s largest and
most important airports. Each of these airports is separately reviewed based upon the latest available actual data and forecasts are
produced by month, by quarter and annually out to 2040. The forecast content for each airport includes international, domestic
and total passengers. The company has invested considerably in the design of custom built software which is especially well adapted
to the needs of the air travel business. Its approach is entirely systematic in that the forecasts generated are without personal
conjecture and are thus capable of probability analysis.
Bespoke Forecasting
Our unique expertise and depth of data coverage enables us to work closely with individual clients on tailored forecast studies.
These have ranged recently from a master plan for a major airport to a privatization study and a bespoke in-house forecast database
for a leading airport supplier.
Travel and Tourism Forecasting
Our country by country travel and tourism forecasts are an invaluable tool for companies involved in the travel and travel retail
industries. For 160 countries worldwide there are online forecasts and historical trend data for visitors arriving and departing by air,
land and sea. The forecast content for each country includes a breakdown by business and leisure traveller, nationality of visitor and
visitor by regional origin.
ContactAir4casts Limited1 Northumberland AvenueTrafalgar SquareLondon WC2N 5BWUK
Telephone: +44 203 086 9315Fax: +44 203 004 1738
Name
Company
Address
Town
Country Postcode
Phone Fax
My subscription is for:
o Full Package Single Site Annual Licence £9,000
o FastPax Single Site Annual Licence £2,000
o US Airports Single Site Annual Licence £2,500
Payment
o I enclose a cheque in the amount of £ payable to
Air4casts Limited
or
Please debit my:
o Visa o MasterCard
in the above amount
Number
Name on Card
Expiry Date month year
or
o I am an existing Air4casts Ltd client and wish you to invoice the
above company account in the normal way for payment within 28
days from date of invoice.
Upgrade my Current Subscription
o I wish to upgrade my current subscription. Please send me the
upgrade options.
order form
AIR PASSENGER FORECASTS ONLINE
SINGLE-USER OPTION
For further information please call:
Jane RobinsonAir4casts Limited
1 Northumberland AvenueLondon WC2N 5BW
UKTel: +44 203 086 9315Fax: +44 203 004 1738
www.air4casts.com
Name
Company
Address
Town
Country Postcode
Phone Fax
My subscription is for:
o Full Package Multi Site Annual Licence £15,000
o FastPax Multi Site Annual Licence £3,500
o US Airports Multi Site Annual Licence £5,500
Payment
o I enclose a cheque in the amount of £ payable to
Air4casts Limited
or
Please debit my:
o Visa o MasterCard
in the above amount
Number
Name on Card
Expiry Date month year
or
o I am an existing Air4casts Ltd client and wish you to invoice the
above company account in the normal way for payment within 28
days from date of invoice.
Upgrade my Current Subscription
o I wish to upgrade my current subscription. Please send me the
upgrade options.
AIR PASSENGER FORECASTS ONLINE
MULTI-USER OPTION