The Ontario Economic Overview is a quarterly report prepared by the Policy, Analysis & Intelligence Directorate of the Ontario Region of Industry Canada that contains analysis of the current economic and financial performance of industries in Ontario. The analysis is of select economic/industrial issues, and does not contain internal forecasts or policy analysis, assessments, or conclusions. If you have any comments, please email David Norton, Senior Economist, Industry Canada, Ontario Region, at [email protected]. HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS REPORT Sector overviews: Manufacturing (pg. 4) ICT (pg. 7) Retail and Wholesale Clean Energy Automotive (pg. 4) Finance and Insurance Trade (pg. 10) (pg. 12) Aerospace (pg. 6) (pg. 8) Primary Industries Biotechnology and Tourism (pg. 9) (pg. 11) Pharmaceutical (pg. 7) KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 9.6 9.0 8.4 8.0 7.5 7.4 United States 3.0 1.7 2.1 -0.7 1.2 1.4 8.6 7.8 7.8 Canada 3.2 3.2 2.0 1.4 1.6 0.8 2010 2011f 2012f Ontario 3.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.8 0.7 (% change unless otherwise indicated) Real GDP Employment Unemployment Rate 2010 2011f 2012f 2010 2011f 2012f Source: Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics; f indicates forecasted data, using median forecasts released in December 2011 or later, where available, from Conference Board of Canada, Scotiabank, RBC Financial, TD Economics, BMO Financial, CIBC World Markets, and Desjardins. Forecasts collected March 2012. Ontario Economic Overview Ontario’s real GDP was up 0.7% in Q3 2011, following a 0.2% drop in Q2. After declining in Q2, output in Ontario’s manufacturing sector was up 2.2% in Q3 2011 from Q2. Sector employment was up 1.0% over Q3 2010. Output in Ontario’s automotive sector was up 6.4% in Q3 over a weak Q2, with higher sales in 2011 than 2010, and sales projected to continue growing in 2012. Year-over-year employment was up 0.9% in Q3 2011. Employment was up 3.9% year-over-year in Ontario’s pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing industry. A drop in ICT manufacturing output led to a 0.2% drop in Canada’s ICT output in Q3 compared to the prior quarter. Employment was up 0.5% and sales were up 2.0% compared to Q3 2010. In the financial services sector, employment was down 1.5% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, with job losses concentrated in the insurance subsector. The number of international travellers coming to Ontario was down 2.0% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010. Visits from overseas travellers increased based on gains in visitors from emerging markets. The primary sector’s output dropped 2.5% from Q2 to Q3. Employment was up 2.8% over Q3 2010 levels. Ontario’s economy is forecast to grow 2.1% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2012, slightly behind Canada’s projected growth. March 2012 Update
Transcript
The Ontario Economic Overview is a quarterly report prepared by the Policy, Analysis & Intelligence Directorate of the Ontario Region of Industry Canada that contains analysis of the current economic and financial performance of industries in Ontario. The analysis is of select economic/industrial issues, and does not contain internal forecasts or policy analysis, assessments, or conclusions. If you have any comments, please email David Norton, Senior Economist, Industry Canada, Ontario Region, at [email protected].
HIGHLIGHTS
IN THIS REPORT Sector overviews: � Manufacturing (pg. 4) � ICT (pg. 7) � Retail and Wholesale � Clean Energy � Automotive (pg. 4) � Finance and Insurance Trade (pg. 10) (pg. 12) � Aerospace (pg. 6) (pg. 8) � Primary Industries � Biotechnology and � Tourism (pg. 9) (pg. 11)
Pharmaceutical (pg. 7)
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
9.6 9.0 8.4
8.0 7.5 7.4
United States 3.0 1.7 2.1 -0.7 1.2 1.4
8.6 7.8 7.8
Canada 3.2 3.2 2.0 1.4 1.6 0.8
2010 2011f 2012f
Ontario 3.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.8 0.7
(% change unless
otherwise indicated)
Real GDP Employment Unemployment Rate
2010 2011f 2012f 2010 2011f 2012f
Source: Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics; f indicates forecasted data, using median forecasts released in December 2011 or later, where available, from Conference Board of Canada, Scotiabank, RBC Financial, TD Economics, BMO Financial, CIBC World Markets, and Desjardins. Forecasts collected March 2012.
Ontario Economic Overview
� Ontario’s real GDP was up 0.7% in Q3 2011, following a 0.2% drop in Q2. � After declining in Q2, output in Ontario’s manufacturing sector was up
2.2% in Q3 2011 from Q2. Sector employment was up 1.0% over Q3 2010. � Output in Ontario’s automotive sector was up 6.4% in Q3 over a weak Q2,
with higher sales in 2011 than 2010, and sales projected to continue growing in 2012. Year-over-year employment was up 0.9% in Q3 2011.
� Employment was up 3.9% year-over-year in Ontario’s pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing industry.
� A drop in ICT manufacturing output led to a 0.2% drop in Canada’s ICT output in Q3 compared to the prior quarter. Employment was up 0.5% and sales were up 2.0% compared to Q3 2010.
� In the financial services sector, employment was down 1.5% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, with job losses concentrated in the insurance subsector.
� The number of international travellers coming to Ontario was down 2.0% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010. Visits from overseas travellers increased based on gains in visitors from emerging markets.
� The primary sector’s output dropped 2.5% from Q2 to Q3. Employment was up 2.8% over Q3 2010 levels.
� Ontario’s economy is forecast to grow 2.1% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2012, slightly behind Canada’s projected growth.
* Employment data from LFS and is not strictly comparable to SEPH data used elsewhere
GDP Growth (%) Employment Growth (%)
GDP and Employment Growth of Selected Ontario Industries
Ontario GDP by Sector, 2010
Finance, Insurance
and Real Estate, 24%
Manufacturing, 15%
Commercial Services,
14%
Wholesale & Retail
Trade, 12%
Non-Commercial
Services, 12%
Transportation &
Comm, 8%
Public Admin &
Defence, 6%
Construction, 5%
Utilities, 2%
Primary Industries, 1%
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 379-0025
Ontario Employment by Sector, 2010
Commercial Services,
18%
Non-Commercial
Services, 17%
Wholesale & Retail
Trade, 17%
Manufacturing, 11%
Transportation &
Comm, 7%
Finance, Insurance
and Real Estate, 7%
Public Admin &
Defence, 7%
Construction, 5%
Other , 9%
Utilities, 1%
Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH)
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 3
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
� Ontario’s real GDP increased 0.9% in Q3 2011 following a 0.3% decline in Q2 2011. Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP increased by 2.3%.1
� The construction sector experienced the most pronounced gain, with output up 3.5% from Q2 2011. Output also improved noticeably in manufacturing (+2.2) and arts, entertainment and recreation (+1.5%). There were declines in the primary sector (-2.5%), utilities (-1.1%), and other services (-1.1%).2
� Housing starts were up 17.5% over Q3 2010 while the value of permits, an indicator of future construction activity, declined 9.6% over the same period.3 4
� After gaining 116,000 jobs in Q3 2011 over Q3 2010, Ontario had 85,500 more jobs in Q4 2011 than in Q4 2010. The largest contributors to job growth were health care and social assistance (+46,000 jobs); professional, scientific and technical services (+37,300); and accommodation and food services (+27,000). The biggest declines were found in wholesale trade (-39,600) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (-10,900).5
� Ontario’s unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in Q3 2011, down 0.2 percentage points from Q2 2011. National unemployment decreased 0.3 percentage points to 7.2% in Q3 2011. With the exception of Q3 2010, Ontario’s unemployment rate has been trending downward since Q4 2009. Some of Canada’s highest unemployment rates were found in Ontario Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), including Peterborough (10.9%), Barrie (10.8%), and Windsor (9.8%).6
� There was no change in business-lending conditions in
Q4 2011 according to the Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey. Price-lending conditions stayed the same in Q4, though non-price lending conditions eased in all borrower categories, particularly for corporate borrowers and small businesses. The absence of improvement in price-lending conditions despite competition among lenders was partly attributed to a weak economic outlook.7
� Consumer insolvencies in Ontario declined 12.4% in Q3 2011 versus Q3 2010, compared to a 9.4% drop nationally. All Ontario CMAs posted declines in consumer insolvencies and bankruptcies with the exception of Kingston.8
� Ontario business insolvencies were down 13.7% year-over-year in Q3 2011, surpassing the 7.5% national decline. There were 360 business insolvencies in Ontario in Q3 2011, and both bankruptcies and proposals dropped.9
� In February, Ontario’s index of consumer confidence dropped 2.4 points to 65.4, following January’s 7.1 point increase over December. (The baseline figure of 100 refers to 2002 levels of consumer confidence.) Canada’s index rose 1.3 points in February to 75.2, following a larger increase in January (+4.0). Nationally, the outlook on job creation outlook appears positive, though Ontario has a slightly less favourable view on jobs and major purchases.10
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
� Ontario’s real GDP growth in 2012 is forecast at 1.9% according to the median forecast, while Canada’s GDP is projected to grow 2.0%.11
� Both median figures remained the same as last quarter’s projections, though forecasts by individual institutions changed. Three forecasters raised their projections for Ontario’s GDP growth, one forecast was maintained, and three forecasters lowered their projections. Of the seven forecasts of Canadian GDP, three were increased, two were maintained, and two were lowered.12
� Ontario’s output growth may be tempered by uncertainty in the global economy. Though the province will experience reductions in public expenditures and infrastructure spending, business investment is expected to continue rising.13
� Though EU leaders agreed on a treaty addressing Europe’s debt crisis, the problem is not entirely resolved and may continue to restrain economic growth. Interest rates should remain low in Europe, the U.S., and Canada.14
� After dropping from 8.6% in 2010 to 7.8% in 2011,
Ontario’s unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7.8% in 2012. The national rate is forecast to drop slightly from 7.5% in 2011 to 7.4% in 2012.15
� U.S. unemployment is forecast to drop from 9.0% in 2011 to 8.4% in 2012,16 remaining well above the five-year pre-recession average of 5.1% between 2004 and 2008.17
� Demand for new vehicles in the U.S. should support Ontario exports, though output growth in general may be weak based on global economic challenges and lower public infrastructure spending growth in Ontario.18
� Released in February 2012, the Drummond report proposed ways to eliminate the provincial deficit by 2017-2018 through spending restraint. Recommendations included revamping business support spending, streamlining government processes and cutting costs in non-priority areas.19
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 4
SECTORAL ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK MANUFACTURING
Though the relative output of manufacturing in Ontario’s economy has been declining for many years, the sector accounted for 15.0% of Ontario’s output in Q3 2011. Following a 1.7% decline in real output in Q2 2011, Ontario’s manufacturing sector rebounded 2.2% in Q3 2011 over the previous quarter.20 The rise in manufacturing output in Q3 2011 brought output to an annualized level of almost $75B. Excluding automotive manufacturing, the sector’s output rose 1.2% or $716M for the period. Growth was strongest in transportation equipment (6.0%), chemical and petroleum products (5.1%), and machinery manufacturing (4.1%). Output declined significantly in three subsectors: wood products and furniture (-3.8%), plastic and rubber products (-2.1%), and paper products and printing (-1.7%).21 Manufacturing employment was up 1.0% (+6,685 jobs) in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, marking the fifth consecutive increase. There were strong gains in machinery (+3,668 jobs), fabricated metal product (+2,955), and chemical manufacturing (+2,085). Employment dropped substantially in computer and electronic product manufacturing (-1,994) and food manufacturing (-1,829).22 In February, Maple Leaf Foods continued to restructure its poultry business by announcing the closure of its chicken processing branch in Ayr, Ontario. Roughly 175 jobs are to be lost in Ayr, with 75 jobs created by transferring the work to Mississauga.23 In Owen Sound, Veyance Technologies announced the closure of its power transmission belt facility, resulting in the loss of about 40 jobs.24
There were over 450 layoffs in London, Ontario, following a labour dispute at the city’s Electro-Motive diesel locomotive plant. Caterpillar had purchased the company that owned the plant in 201025 and, in mid-2011, asked the Canadian Autoworkers Union (CAW) to agree to a new contract stipulating roughly 50% wage cuts along with other benefit reductions.26 The CAW rejected the proposal, and Caterpillar locked workers out on January 1. In early February, the company announced the closure of the plant, citing an inability to create a sustainable cost structure.27 The strong Canadian dollar continues to weigh on Ontario’s manufacturers, and the dollar is expected to maintain its strength throughout 2012.28 AUTOMOTIVE
Ontario’s automotive production increased by 6.4% in Q3 2011, following a 6.6% drop in Q2 201129 that was partly caused by supply disruptions from the Japan earthquake and tsunami. Compared to Q3 2010, output was down 3.8%.30 Total automotive employment edged up 0.9% in Q3 2011 compared to the same quarter in 2010.31
Despite challenges from natural disasters earlier in 2011 and ongoing concerns regarding the global economy,32 U.S. light vehicle sales were up 10.3% for 2011 over 2010, totaling 12.8M units.33 Although sales were still well below peak pre-recession volumes, the industry remained largely profitable, with lower breakeven volumes, disciplined inventories, and less reliance on fleet sales.34 35 Both sales and market share were up in 2011 for the U.S. automakers, while Toyota and Honda were down in both categories.36 With a strengthening U.S. economy, better credit availability for consumers, and a large number of aging vehicles on the road, the industry is anticipating
Manufacturing GDP and Employment, Quarterly
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
GD
P (
Bil
lio
ns $
)
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
GDP Employment
Note: GDP is adjusted at annual rates. Employment is unadjusted.
Automotive GDP and Employment, Quarterly
8
12
16
20
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
GD
P (
Bil
lio
ns $
)
60
80
100
120
140
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
GDP Employment
Note: GDP is adjusted at annual rates. Employment is unadjusted
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 5
a steady improvement in sales to about 13.8M units in 2012.37 Canadian purchases totaled 1.59M vehicles in 2011 and are projected to rise to 1.61M units in 2012.38 Annual automotive production in North America climbed 10.5% from 2010 to 2011, reaching13.5M units, while Canada’s output increased 3.6% to about 2.2M units.39 North American light vehicle production is expected to reach about 14.4M units in 2012.40
General Motors’ U.S. sales were up 13.2% for 2011 compared to 2010,41 but Canadian sales and market share contracted for the same period.42 Strong demand for the Chevy Equinox and GMC Terrain boosted GM’s North American output over 20% for the year, and Canada’s production climbed 26%.43 GM’s Ingersoll plant has been operating three shifts, while Oshawa became Canada’s top vehicle-producing city based on the overflow production of the Equinox.44 Although the automaker still plans to shut down one of its Oshawa assembly lines in 2013, it recently announced a $68M plant investment to build the new Chevy Impala, retaining 350 jobs.45 GM also announced an additional $8.8M for its St. Catharines powertrain facility.46 The company reported 2011 net income of US$7.8B, the largest annual profit in its history.47
Ford Motor’s U.S. light vehicle sales climbed 9.1% for the full year 2011 compared to 2010.48 In Canada, Ford had the highest annual vehicle sales for the second straight year.49 Ford’s North American production was up 12.5% in 2011, in large part due to strong truck demand, while its Canadian production was virtually unchanged.50 Ford reported 2011 operating profit of US$8.8B, its third straight annual increase.51 The company also announced that it would resume paying a dividend for the first time since September 2006.52
U.S. light vehicle sales were up 26.2% in 2011 from 2010 at Chrysler Group LLC,53 while U.S. market share reached 10.7%, up from 9.4% in 2010, with stronger retail sales.54 Canadian vehicle purchases advanced 12.7%, and the company gained the most market share among automakers in Canada.55 Chrysler’s North American output increased 27% year-over-year, with Canadian production up 4.3%.56 The company reported 2011 net income of US$183M, a significant improvement from last year’s net loss of US$652M, and the first annual profit since emerging from its 2009 bankruptcy restructuring.57 Chrysler Group recently introduced the Dodge Dart, its first American-built vehicle based on Fiat design and technology. This milestone allowed Fiat SpA to raise its ownership in Chrysler Group to 58.5%.58
Japanese automakers have largely recovered from the 2011 disasters that caused supply chain disruptions and subsequent vehicle inventory shortages in North America. Although Toyota and Honda were the only two major automakers with reduced 2011 North American production volumes,59 their operations and sales activity improved during the final months of the year. Both companies continue to deal with challenges of recovering lost market share in competitive markets, and cost pressures due to the strong Japanese currency.60
In November, Toyota posted its first sales increase in seven months.61 However, for full-year 2011, Toyota’s U.S. light vehicle sales decreased 6.7% compared to 2010 and the automaker’s U.S. market share receded to 12.9% from 15.2%.62 In Canada, sales fell 6% and the company also lost market share.63 For 2011, North American production contracted 7.6% while Canadian output was lower by 9.2%.64 Toyota reported a 14% decrease (year-over-year) for its Q3 net income,65 and significantly lower global sales for 2011 meant it lost its ranking as the world’s largest automotive company, falling behind General Motors and Volkswagen.66 The company also announced that a new President and CEO, Seiji Ichii, has been named to head the Canadian operations.67 For 2012, Toyota upgraded its global sales outlook and plans to launch 19 new or refreshed vehicles in the U.S.68
Honda Motor Co. operations were significantly affected by the 2011 disasters, and inventory levels for some products remain low.69 The company posted a huge drop in its Q3 profit, and forecast a 65% decline in annual profit for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2012.70 In the U.S., light vehicles sales fell 6.8% in 2011, and Honda’s market share contracted to 9.0% from 10.6% in 2010.71 In Canada, vehicle purchases were down nearly 13%, but the Civic remained the top-selling passenger car for the 14th straight year.72 Honda expects sales to improve as inventory stocks are replenished and refreshed products are introduced later in 2012.73 Honda’s total North American output decreased 14.1% in 2011, with Canadian production down 16.5% from 2010.74 In Ontario, Honda recently announced the start of CR-V production at one of its plants in Alliston.75
The strong U.S. sales in Q4 provided a needed boost to suppliers.76 Parts companies have largely reduced structural costs and are now more profitable at lower volumes. With vehicle production projected to rise, however, many suppliers are becoming increasingly challenged to make the capital investments needed to meet rising demand.77 Planned increases in North American production capacity at a number of major automakers may also bring new business opportunities to the industry. While suppliers continue to face cost
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 6
pressures from material inputs and currency fluctuations, many companies are reporting shortages of skilled labour that could present a barrier to expansion.78
AEROSPACE
Ontario’s aerospace industry, which produces aircraft parts and systems, accounted for 28.4% of Canadian aerospace GDP in 2010, second in Canada behind Quebec (57.7%).79 80 There are approximately 200 aerospace companies in Ontario, including Bombardier Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney Canada, Honeywell Canada, L-3 Electronic Systems, Magellan, and Northstar Aerospace.81 In 2010, annual aerospace GDP dropped 6.3% nationally and 3.1% in Ontario compared to 2009.82 83
National GDP rose 3.6% in Q3 2011 over the prior quarter, the first quarterly gain since Q3 2008.84 Ontario’s aerospace manufacturing employment dropped 3.2% in Q3 from the same quarter in 2010 to just over 8,000 workers.85 Sector exports from Ontario accounted for almost 30% of the national total in Q3 2011; they rose 6.4% over Q3 2010.86 Sales were also up, with a 43.2% rise in Ontario’s aerospace manufacturing sector sales in Q3 compared to the previous quarter.87 Bombardier recently received product orders from airline Garuda Indonesia for six CRJ1000 NextGen regional jets with an option for 18 more. Based on list prices, the deal is valued at approximately US$297M, increasing to roughly US$1.3B should all 18 options be confirmed.88 In February, Bombardier announced that Horizon Air of Seattle had signed a firm purchase agreement for two Q400 NextGen airliners valued at approximately US$60M.89 Also in February, the
company announced that Ethiopian Airlines had placed a firm order for five Q400 NextGen airliners in a deal valued at approximately US$160M.90
Bombardier predicts that over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific region will require about 4,000 aircraft in the 20-to-149 seat category. To respond to this growing market, the company announced in February that it was opening a sales and marketing office in Singapore91 and that by 2013, it would open a full-scale service centre in Singapore as well.92 In total, there are more than 300 Bombardier C-Series, CRJ, and Q-Series commercial aircraft on order or operating in the Asia-Pacific region.93
In an attempt to dispel customer concerns regarding Bombardier’s ability to deliver its new C-Series plane by the end of 2013, CEO Pierre Beaudoin stated at a recent industry event in New York that Bombardier was still pushing for a 2013 year-end delivery.94 The company has invested $3B in the C-Series, which will compete with smaller regional planes from Boeing and Airbus. Mr. Beaudoin also announced recently that the company was in discussions with WestJet to supply Q400 turboprops for WestJet’s planned regional airline.95 The current fiscal environment in Canada and Ontario has led to concerns over the possibility of cutbacks for R&D funding in an industry that receives 25% of its annual $1.4B in research expenditures from government. Gilles Labbé, chairman of Aero Montreal and CEO of Héroux-Devtek, recently suggested that the industry should receive the same or greater levels of financial assistance due to the importance of aerospace in generating income for Canada.96 Three Quebec-based Canadian aerospace firms spent $100M or more on research in Canada in 2010: Pratt & Whitney Canada ($395M); Bombardier ($199M); and CAE ($117M).97
On February 27, David Emerson was appointed to lead the federal Review of Aerospace and Space Programs and Policies to examine how the sector should face key issues, including: “innovation, market access and development, skills development, procurement, and supplier development.”98 The review will be supported by a three-member advisory council comprised of: Sandra Pupatello (Director of Business Development and Global Markets for PricewaterhouseCoopers, Toronto); Jim Quick (President and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada); and Dr. Jacques Roy (professor and director of the Department of Logistics and Operations Management at HEC, Montreal).99 Findings are to be presented to the Minister of Industry at the end of the year.
Aerospace Employment, Quarterly
7
8
9
10
11
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
Employment
Note: Employment is unadjusted.
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 7
BIOTECHNOLOGY AND PHARMACEUTICAL
As one of the world’s largest life sciences clusters, Ontario’s pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries employ more than 16,500 people and generate close to $10B in annual revenue.100 With strength in the generic and brand-named pharmaceutical manufacturing, Ontario’s industry has a mix of small firms, local industry leaders and large multinationals101 that include five of Canada’s top ten pharmaceutical companies by revenue.102 The biotech industry in Ontario comprises 34% of all biotech enterprises in Canada.103 The province also has a large advanced medical technologies industry, which is composed of approximately 700 companies employing more than 20,000 people, and generates close to $4B in revenue.104 Ontario’s pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing industry posted positive results in Q3, bucking recent downward trends. Compared to the same period in 2010, employment advanced by 3.9%105 and shipments were up 5.2%.106 For employment, this was the first year-over-year gain in ten quarters. Ontario pharmaceutical industry exports also increased 4.6% from last year to put YTD exports (as of November 2011) on par with 2010 levels. Comparatively, Canadian exports were up 4.3% over Q3 2010 but YTD exports remained 6% below 2010 YTD results.107 National GDP for the sector was down 12.6% in Q3 2011 from Q3 2010.108 However, national output is forecast to grow at an average rate of 4.9% over the next four years led by a large rebound in 2012.109 The Conference Board of Canada’s Leading Indicator of Industry Profitability for the national pharmaceutical sector, which predicts short-term movements in corporate profitability, was up for the sixth straight month in January.110
Although the deal-making environment has improved since the worst of the economic downturn, the challenge of raising early stage capital is a key issue especially as a number of traditional sources in Ontario have vacated the market.111 This challenge ranked as the top concern for Canadian biotech in 2011112 and is seen by industry participants as crucial to stabilizing the sector.113 Total venture capital (VC) investment in Ontario life sciences industries was up 24.2% in 2011 compared to 2010. In Ontario, there were five financing deals totalling $25.1M in Q3 and another eight totalling $33.9M in Q4, nearly all of which took place in the biopharmaceutical subsector.114 Also in Q3, GlaxoSmithKline launched its Canada Life Sciences Innovation Fund, a national $50M investment fund to support early-stage research and help address Canada’s innovation gap.115 Beyond financing issues, the Canadian life science industry is facing challenges related to reduced R&D spending and lagging sales growth in stable markets. While investment in domestic R&D is at its lowest level in 20 years,116 research in emerging markets is surging. According to the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, this trend represents missed opportunities for sales and product co-development.117 Fostering collaborative links, both with emerging markets and between provinces, is a key objective of many industry advocates. For example, Ontario and Quebec have partnered to create the Québec-Ontario Life Sciences Corridor to promote broader collaboration within an expanded cluster.118 Similarly, the 10th Annual BioPartnering North America conference in Vancouver in February 2012 emphasized the importance of a global reach and developing partnerships with the Pacific Rim.119 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS
TECHNOLOGY The ICT sector is a significant contributor to Ontario’s economy with some of the country’s leading ICT employers, R&D spenders, and high-growth firms. Ontario’s top 250 ICT companies generate more than $40B in revenue120 and about 50% of Canada’s total ICT industry is concentrated in Ontario. The Toronto, Ottawa, and Kitchener-Waterloo clusters alone account for 16,000 ICT firms.121 Ontario is home to more than half of the companies in Deloitte’s 2011 Technology Fast 50 rankings, which lists the fastest growing tech firms in Canada.122 In 2010, 45 Ontario-based firms invested over $5.4B in R&D. Twenty-four of these firms were in the ICT sector, and had a combined R&D investment of $3.7B. R&D spending was led by Research in Motion (RIM), BCE, and IBM Canada, demonstrating the province’s
Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing
Employment, Quarterly
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
Em
plo
ym
en
t
Employment
Note: Employment is unadjusted.
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 8
strengths in the communications equipment, telecommunications, and software services subsectors.123
Ontario’s ICT industry contributed $27.8B (or 5.7%) to the province’s GDP in 2010, an increase of 1.9% over 2009.124 In Q3 2011, Canada’s ICT output declined over the prior quarter for the first time since Q3 2009, though the drop was only 0.2%. While the ICT services subsector was roughly flat, output in ICT manufacturing declined 2.8% from Q2 to Q3.125 More than half of Canada’s computer and electronic products companies are located in Ontario, and the sector is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2012 and by an average of 4.0% over the medium term.126 Sales by Ontario ICT manufacturers were up 2.0% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010. This increase was largely due to a strong performance by the communication and energy wire and cable manufacturing subsector, in which sales rose 22.2% over the period.127 Exports declined by 2.2% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010. Cumulatively through the first ten months of 2011, exports were roughly flat compared to the same period in 2010.128 Employment for the overall sector was up 0.5% in Q3 2011 compared to the same quarter in 2010, with the most significant growth coming from the computer systems design and related services subsector (+10.0%). With the exception of that subsector and the commercial and service industry machinery manufacturing subsector, employment was down in all subsectors.129 The job market for IT workers in Toronto was seen as strong, however, with a report by IT recruiting firm Modis ranking the city as second only to Houston, Texas, in the market for IT workers in North America.130
As part of a globally integrated and rapidly changing sector, Ontario-based ICT organizations are not immune to competitive pressures and market shifts. A number of leading ICT firms have announced major changes in recent months, including layoffs, executive turnovers, and acquisitions. IBM is reported to have cut 1,100 employees in the U.S. and Canada, or 0.2% of its global workforce.131 In late January, RIM restructured its executive team by replacing co-CEOs Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie with Thorsten Heins. The move was done prior to the release of RIM’s updated PlayBook tablet operating system which the company reported has led to an increase in the number of new apps and devices coming online.132 And both communications networking solutions provider RuggedCom and semiconductor manufacturer Gennum received acquisition notices by larger multinational firms. In the case of RuggedCom, Siemens Canada proposed a takeover for $440M, while U.S.-based Semtech plans to acquire Gennum for $500M.133 134 FINANCE AND INSURANCE
The finance and insurance sector in Ontario had output of $31.7B in 2010, accounting for 6.5% of the province’s economy and 38.4% of the sector’s national GDP.135 After declining 0.8% in Q2, national GDP for the finance and insurance sector rebounded 0.6% in Q3 2011 compared to the previous quarter, reaching an annualized level of $84.1B.136 Sector employment in Q3 in Ontario contracted, as a 5.7% drop (-4391 jobs) in the insurance subsector contributed to a 1.5% (-4549) overall decline compared to Q3 2010. After averaging just over 300,000 jobs in Ontario in 2010, employment was approximately 296,000 in Q3.137
ICT Employment, Quarterly
220
225
230
235
240
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
Employment
Note: Employment unadjusted. 2008 data for the Telecommunications subsector w as unavailable
Finance & Insurance Employment, Quarterly
280
290
300
310
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
Employment
Note: Employment is unadjusted.
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 9
Toronto is the centre of Ontario’s financial services sector, and is home to the headquarters of Canada’s five largest banks and many other large financial services firms. The city was ranked ninth on the most recent update to the Global Financial Centres Index138 and is projected by Moody’s Analytics to surpass top-ranked London in financial services employment by 2017.139
Total quarterly profit at Canada’s five largest banks was $6.1B in Q4 2011, up 36.4% from Q4 2010.140 All except BMO surpassed analyst earnings expectations.141 142 143 144 145 BMO’s earnings were supported by its Marshall & Ilsey unit, acquired in July, and by personal and commercial banking. Volatile market conditions contributed to a drop in profits at the bank’s capital markets business, however.146 Though CIBC’s earnings were strong, revenues were flat compared to Q4 2010, and growth in consumer credit was expected to slow.147 Profit was down at RBC’s capital markets division, but the bank’s Canadian banking operations supported earnings growth.148 At TD, there were strong results for the domestic retail and wholesale banking units, along with suggestions that earnings growth could be squeezed in 2012.149 Earnings were up in all divisions at Scotiabank with the exception of investment banking.150 In February, Moody’s Investors Services announced it was reviewing 17 banks for possible downgrades based on challenging global financial markets. RBC, the only Canadian bank on the list, expressed surprise at its inclusion since the bank believes it is in a strong financial position.151 Moody’s identified RBC’s rating as potentially dropping as much as two notches.152 Manulife Financial reported a Q4 loss of $69M, down from net income of $1.8B in Q4 2010. For the fiscal year 2011 (ending 31 December 2011), however,
i All five banks define Q4 2011 as the period ending 31 October 2011 for reporting purposes.
Manulife’s earnings were $129M, up from a loss of $1.7B in 2010.153 154 Manulife stood by its target of $4B in annual earnings by 2015. The insurer also announced its CFO, Michael Bell, would resign once his replacement was found.155 Sun Life Financial took a charge of $635M on its variable annuity and segregated fund insurance contracts, leading to a loss of $525M in Q4 2011 compared to net income of $504M in Q4 2010. For the year, Sun Life lost $300M compared to net income of $1.4B in 2010.156 In December, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that the federal government of Canada lacked the constitutional authority to create a single national securities regulator. The move to replace Canada’s 13 provincial and territorial regulators with a single body had been opposed by several provinces, including Alberta and Quebec. As a result of the court’s ruling, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that the government would not proceed with legislation to create a national regulator.157 TOURISM
Approximately 300,000 people are directly employed in Ontario’s tourism sector158 and almost 1.7M individuals were employed in tourism-related industries as of November 2011.159 During the first eleven months of 2011, visitors from the U.S. accounted for 85.7% of international travel to Ontario.160 The number of U.S. visitors for Q3 2011 increased marginally by 1.1% from the previous quarter but decreased by 3.4% from the same period in 2010.161
Canada's Top Five Banks: Q4 2011 Earningsi
2011 Q4 earnings ($millions)
Change in Earnings from Q4 2010 (%)
2011 Q4 ROE (%)
Tier 1 capital ratio (%)
BMO 897 21.4% 14.3% 12.0%
CIBC 794 58.8% 20.6% 14.7%
RBC 1,599 42.6% 17.1% 13.3%
TD 1,566 57.5% 14.3% 13.0%
Scotia 1,240 11.2% 16.6% 12.2%
Accommodation and Food Services GDP and
Employment, Quarterly
8
9
10
11
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
GD
P (
Bil
lio
ns $
)
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
GDP Employment
Note: GDP is adjusted at annual rates. Employment is unadjusted.
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 10
Entries from destinations other than the U.S. grew when compared to Q2 2011 (+0.4%) and Q3 2010 (+7.8%).165 The number of overseas travellers entering Ontario reached its highest total since 2008 for the YTD period ending in November. The increase was attributable to large gains in arrivals from emerging markets such as China (+42.2%), Hong Kong (+19.7%) and India (+13.2%). At the same time, arrivals from traditional markets were mostly stable, including: France (+1.3%), Japan (+0.7%) and Germany (+0.2%). Only the number of arrivals from the U.K. decreased (-2.6%).166
A significant portion of Ontario’s tourism output is related to the province’s accommodation and food services sector. Output for this sector has steadily improved since the recession and reached post-recession highs in each of the last four quarters. In Q3, which is made up of tourism’s high-volume months of the late summer, GDP advanced 0.8% (seasonally adjusted) over Q2 and by a full 5% over Q3 2010.167 Overall employment also grew compared to the corresponding period in 2010; more than 13,000 jobs were added in the food service subsector but almost 900 jobs were shed in the accommodation services subsector.168 Ontario’s hotels averaged an occupancy rate of 62.4% in the first eleven months of 2011, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the same period in 2010.169 Occupancy rates were highest in Toronto where there was a record 9M hotel nights sold in 2011.170 All told, visitor spending in Toronto by both overnight and same day trips totalled $4.6B.171 In the near term, growth for Ontario’s tourism industry is forecast to be modest, and to be led by continued increases in visitors from non-traditional markets and higher spending on tourism-related goods.172 RETAIL AND WHOLESALE TRADE In Ontario, the retail and wholesale trade sectors account for 17% of the provincial labour force, or over 990,000 workers.173 In Q3 2011, output increased in
both retail (0.2%) and wholesale trade (1.1%) after a minor retraction in the previous quarter. Compared to Q3 2010, production was up in both retail (1.4%) and wholesale (4.2%) trade.174 Employment in wholesale trade grew by 1.4% (+4472 jobs) compared to the same period in 2010, but retail trade employment remained relatively unchanged. As a result, combined sector employment was up only slightly. The largest gains in employment were found in electronics and appliance stores (9.6%); motor vehicle and parts wholesaler-distributors (5.4%); and wholesale electronic markets, and agents and brokers (4.9%). The biggest losses were in sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-6.9%); grocery stores
(-4.0%); and food and beverage stores (-3.2%).175 Retail trade sales were up 0.6% in Q3 over the previous quarter, matching the increase in Q2 over Q1. Compared to Q3 2010, sales were up 3.5% in Q3 2011. Wholesale sales were also up in Q3, increasing 1.8% over Q2 and 6.7% over Q3 2010.176 177 Within the retail sector, annual sales growth was strongest at gasoline stations (19.6%), followed by automotive parts, accessories and tire stores (13.7%) and home furnishings stores (10.0%). Meanwhile, the biggest sales losses were found in used car dealers (-4.8%), furniture stores (-3.1%), and miscellaneous store retailers (-2.9%).178 Ontario-based respondents in a national survey of retailers anticipate weak-to-steady sales for the province and a national outlook characterized by slow growth and transforming competitive pressures.179 Sluggish retail sales are the result of increasing consumer concerns over debt, according to Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets.180 Sears Canada laid off 70 employees in
Summary of Key Tourism Sector Economic Indicators (Q3 2011)
∆ from Q3 2010
Ontario Canada
International Travellers162 -2.0% -2.4%
From the U.S. -3.4% -3.4% From non-U.S. 7.8% 2.4%
GDP163 for AFS* 5.0% 3.4% Employment164 for AFS* 3.3% 2.0% Accommodations -1.3% 1.4% Food Services 4.2% 2.2%
* AFS - Accommodations and Food Services Industry
Wholesale Trade GDP and Employment, Quarterly
25
27
29
31
33
35
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
GD
P (
Bil
lio
ns $
)
250
270
290
310
330
350
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
GDP Employment
Note: GDP is adjusted at annual rates. Employment is unadjusted.
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 11
November, and another 400 from across Canada in January, with the majority of cuts in Ontario. The layoffs were the result of a review initiated shortly after the arrival of the new CEO, Calvin McDonald.181 As part of Sears’ transformation, the company plans to close some stores (including one in Ottawa)182 and to reduce prices on more than 5000 products in an effort to improve operations and compete with lower-cost competitors.183 There is concern among Canadian retailers that increased competition from new U.S. retailers will make it even more difficult to survive in an already saturated market.184
Cross-border shopping continued to rise and Canadian shoppers were credited with boosting 2011 sales tax revenues in Erie County (including Buffalo) to a new peak.185 Canadian retail has also been moving into the U.S., with Joe Fresh planning to open an 18,000 square-foot store on Fifth Avenue in New York this spring, building on a U.S. presence that includes three other locations in New Jersey and New York that opened in late 2011.186 In January, Hudson’s Bay Company acquired its affiliate, Lord & Taylor, the U.S. department store company and invested $427M in Lord & Taylor to reduce corporate debt.187 Wal-Mart Canada will spend $750M this year opening new stores and remodelling several old locations, creating 73 superstores. The project is expected to create over 14,000 jobs, including store employees and trade and construction jobs and will include 39 Zellers locations that Wal-Mart purchased last year.188 PRIMARY INDUSTRIES In Q3 2011, Ontario’s primary sector output decreased 2.5% compared to the previous quarter, though production was still 0.6% higher than Q3 2010. GDP was down 2.4% in the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting sector, and mining fared worse with a 3.0%
decline from the previous quarter.189 Employment in the primary sector reached 136,700 in Q3, a 2.8% increase over the same period in 2010.190
Agriculture
Employment in agriculture increased by 11.1% (+10,067) in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, bringing sector employment above 100,000. Agriculture experienced the largest gain in employment of any industry in Ontario in 2011.191 Total farm cash receipts increased 6.4%, with crops receipts falling 0.6% and livestock increasing by 15.0%.192 According to the 2012 preliminary forecast from the Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada can expect increased total market receipts that offset any increased expenses. The department’s medium-term outlook is positive and suggests that continued increases in world demand for feed grains, rising petroleum costs, slow-to-moderate population growth in Canada, and the high Canadian dollar will continue to influence the industry and farming income for the next 10 years. It is expected that the absence of an AgriRecovery program and a decline in AgriStability payments in 2012 will lead to program payments in 2012 being $3.0B lower (-18%) than 2011.193
Forestry
Employment in forestry fell 6.8% compared to the same period in 2010, a decline of 667 jobs.194 In Q3 2011, manufacturing sales rose compared to Q2 in both paper manufacturing (0.7%) and wood product manufacturing (1.7%).195 Canada’s forestry industry is highly dependent on the U.S., and has been challenged by less demand for paper, the poor U.S. housing market, and the strong Canadian dollar.196 The downturn in the forestry
Retail Trade GDP and Employment, Quarterly
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
GD
P (
Bil
lio
ns $
)
590
630
670
710
750
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
GDP Employment
Note: GDP is adjusted at annual rates. Employment is unadjusted.
Primary Industries GDP and Employment*,
Quarterly
5
6
7
8
9
10
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011
GD
P (
Bil
lio
ns $
)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
usan
ds)
GDP Employment
Note: GDP is adjusted at annual rates. Employment is unadjusted.
*Employment data is from the Labour Force Survey
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 12
industry has decreased manufacturing output and reduced log-hauling requirements for the trucking industry.197 Growing demand from Asia may provide a way to diversify and reduce dependence on the U.S. market.198 The federal government recently announced that certain programs designed to cultivate innovation and transform the forestry industry may continue, but did not mention which programs and whether funding would be included in the 2012 federal budget.199 In January, Canada and the U.S. signed a two-year extension to the 2006 Canada-United States Softwood Lumber Agreement, which secures Canadian softwood lumber access to the U.S. market until 2015.200 In Ontario, the forest industry has aimed to develop new products through projects like Atikokan’s thermal generating station which was converted from coal to wood-fibre biomass.201 Mining In Q3 2011, output in Ontario’s mining sector decreased by 3.0% from Q2 2011, but was up 3.1% over Q3 2010.202 Mining employment fell by 16.4% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, a loss of 5200 jobs.203 Mining exports increased by 58.6% from the same quarter in 2010 to $4.7B, with gold and silver exports representing the bulk of the increase. Iron ore mining and copper, nickel, lead and zinc ore mining exports increased substantially from Q3 2010. The United Kingdom continued to be Ontario’s largest buyer, followed by the U.S. Exports to India decreased by 51.2% from the same quarter last year.204 Cliffs Natural Resources has yet to decide where in northern Ontario it will locate its Ring of Fire chromite smelter, but the facility is slated to open in 2015 and is expected to create approximately 500 jobs.205 Increased commodity prices have caused a surge in mining and exploration activity in northern Ontario, and four or more gold mines are expected to open in 2012. Despite these expansions, the strength of the Canadian dollar and global economic uncertainty may slow down exports.206 CLEAN ENERGY In the midst of criticism that the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program offered excessively high rates to electricity providers and limited local input on green energy developments, the Ontario government launched its scheduled review of FIT in October 2011. The review is expected to lower the rates paid to electricity suppliers, and will also examine the issues of local consultations, job creation in the clean energy sector, and implementation of the program.207 Since the review was announced, applicants have continued to
apply for contracts under FIT and microFIT. As of February 3, 2012, the program had received over 58,000 applications, up almost 4,500 since the end of October 2011.208 Following growth of 23.6% in 2010, installed global wind capacity added another 42 GW in 2011, for a 21.3% increase. Total installed capacity reached nearly 239 GW, the equivalent of 3% of global electricity demand. Canadian capacity reached over 5 GW, gaining over 30% in 2011.209 As capacity increases and technology advances, wind power continues to decline in price. The most efficient wind farms already produce electricity at costs on par with coal, gas, and nuclear generation.210 With Ontario still under a moratorium for offshore wind development, potential manufacturers and suppliers to the wind industry in Ontario continued to work through the Lake Ontario Offshore Network to have the moratorium lifted.211 Hamilton city council also formally asked the province to begin allowing offshore wind development again, though council had previously voted to ban wind development within city limits.212 Profitability in the solar industry has been under pressure from low-cost suppliers in China and from reduced European subsidies.213 Production capacity of solar modules was projected to be roughly 50 GW globally by the end of 2011 with sales of 21 GW. This excess production capacity may be expected to threaten the viability of many solar companies, leading to a shakeout in the industry.214 In response to these pressures and to the anticipated rate cuts stemming from Ontario’s FIT review, some Ontario companies have been working to improve the efficiency of solar modules and to reduce installation costs.215 Despite these conditions and ongoing trade challenges to Ontario’s domestic content requirements, the solar sector continued to grow in Ontario in 2011. The province’s installed solar capacity was up approximately 130 MW in 2011, reaching over 300 MW. Continuing strong growth has been projected for 2012.216
ENDNOTES 1 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, January 2012. 2 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, January 2012. 3 Statistics Canada, Table 027-0055, CMHC, housing starts, seasonally adjusted at annual rates; quarterly, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 4 Statistics Canada, Table 026-0006, Value of building permits, by province and territory, seasonally adjusted, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 5 Employment data from LFS and is not strictly comparable to employment data used elsewhere. Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Employment by Detailed Industry, unadjusted (accessed 5 March 2012). 6 Statistics Canada, Table 282-0116 Labour Force Survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area, seasonally adjusted, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 7 Bank of Canada, Senior Loan Officer Survey, Vol. 4.4, 9 January 2012. 8 Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy of Canada, Insolvency Statistics in Canada — Third Quarter of 2011. 9 Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy of Canada, Insolvency Statistics in Canada — Third Quarter of 2011. 10 Conference Board of Canada, Index of Consumer Confidence, February 2012. 11 Forecasts released between December 2011 and March 2012 by Conference Board of Canada, Scotiabank, RBC Financial, TD Economics, BMO Financial, CIBC World Markets and Desjardins. 12 Forecasts released between December 2011 and March 2012 by Conference Board of Canada, Scotiabank, RBC Financial, TD Economics, BMO Financial, CIBC World Markets and Desjardins. 13 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Winter 2012, March 2012. 14 Conference Board of Canada, “Canadian Outlook Winter 2012: Economic Forecast”, February 2012. 15 Median rates based on forecasts released between December 2011 and March 2012 by Conference Board of Canada, Scotiabank, RBC Financial, TD Economics, BMO Financial, CIBC World Markets and Desjardins. 16 Median rates based on forecasts released between December 2011 and March 2012 by Conference Board of Canada, Scotiabank, RBC Financial, TD Economics, BMO Financial, CIBC World Markets and Desjardins. 17 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual average unemployment rate, civilian labor force 16 years and over (percent). 18 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Winter 2012, March 2012. 19 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Commission on the Reform of Ontario’s Public Services, February 2012. 20 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, January 2012. 21 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, January 2012. 22 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, CANSIM (accessed 21 February 2012). 23 “Maple Leaf Foods closing plant in Ayr, Ont., cutting about 100 jobs,” Canadian Press, 7 February 2012. 24 Tracey Richardson, “Former Goodyear plant to close,” Owen Sound Sun Times, 2 February 2012. 25 Greg Keenan, “Caterpillar pulls plug on London plant,” Globe and Mail, 3 February 2012. 26 James R. Hagerty, “Caterpillar closes plant in Canada after lockout”, Wall Street Journal, 4 February 2012. 27 Greg Keenan, “Caterpillar pulls plug on London plant,” Globe and Mail, 3 February 2012. 28 Greg Quinn, “The curse of the strong loonie,” Bloomberg News, 21 February 2012. 29 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, January 2012. 30 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, January 2012. 31 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, CANSIM (accessed 19 January 2012). 32 Dina Cover, “U.S. Auto Sales Coming Back to Life…Slowly but Surely”, TD Economics, 17 January 2012. 33 Automotive News Data Centre, U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Nameplate, December and 12 months 2011. 34 Jesse Snyder, “A good sales year? Yeah, but…”, Automotive News, 9 January 2012 35 Jesse Snyder, “Fleet sales inch up, but retail dominates in ‘11”, Automotive News, 16 January 2011. 36 Dina Cover, “U.S. Auto Sales coming Back to Life…Slowly but Surely”, TD Economics, January 17, 2012. 37 Carlos Gomes, Global Auto Report, Scotiabank Group, 22 December 2011; Jesse Snyder, “Sizzling February sales point to a bigger year”, Automotive News, 27 February 2012. 38 Carlos Gomes, Global Auto Report, Scotiabank Group, 22 December 2011; DesRosiers Automotive Consulting, DesRosiers Automotive Reports, Market Snapshot - December and Year End 2011; Sunny Freeman, “Canadian auto sales up nearly two percent in 2011, in best year since recession”, Canadian Press, 4 January 2012. 39 Automotive News Data Center, North American Production by Model: December 2011 and 12 months.
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 15
40 David Sedgewick, “With Japanese back, production expected to rise in second quarter”, Automotive News, 14 February 2012; IHS Global Insight, Global Sales & Production Commentary, January 2012 . 41 Automotive News Data Center, U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Nameplate, December & 12 months. 42 Scott Deveau, “GM market share shrinks to new low”, Financial Post, 5 January 2012; Reuters, “GM Canada market share hits historical low, analyst”, 1 December 2011. 43 Automotive News Data Center, North American Production by Model: December 2011 and 12 months. 44 Grace Macaluso, “Equinox production pushes Oshawa to No. 1 in Canada, Windsor in 2nd place for auto production”, Windsor Star, 8 February 2012. 45 Canadian Press, “GM invests $68 million to build Impala in Oshawa”, Canadian Manufacturing, 16 December 2011. 46 Aaron Bragman, “GM to invest USD 8.8 million to manufacture six-speed transmissions in Canada”, IHS Global Insight, 3 February 2012. 47 General Motors Co., “GM Reports 2011 Net Income of $7.6 Billion”, 16 February 2012; Tom Krisher, “GM records its highest profit ever: $7.6 billion”, Associated Press, 16 February 2012. 48 Automotive News Data Center, U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Nameplate, December & 12 Months. 49 David K. Randall, “Auto sales revving up in 2012 recovery. Ford, GM lead Canadian sales, Chrysler gains market share”, Reuters, 5 January 2012. 50 Automotive News Data Center, North American Production by Model: December 2011 and 12 months. 51 Ford Motor Co., “Ford posts 2011 pre-tax operating profit of $8.8B”, 27 January 2012. 52 Ford Motor Co., “Ford posts 2011 pre-tax operating profit of $8.8B”, 27 January 2012; Dee-Ann Durbin, “Ford says it will resume paying dividends in March, more than 5 years after halting them”, 8 December 2011. 53 Automotive News Data Center, U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Nameplate, December & 12 Months. 54 Chrysler Group LLC, “Chrysler Group reports full year 2011 net income of $183 million”, 1 February 2012; Wendy Soong, “December and year-to date U.S. light vehicle market share”, Bloomberg, 5 January 2012; Automotive News Data Center, U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Nameplate, December & 12 Months. 55 Sunny Freeman, “Canadian auto sales up nearly two percent in 2011, in best year since recession”, Canadian Press, 4 January 2011. 56 Automotive News Data Center, North American Production by Model: December 2011 and 12 months. 57 Chrysler Group LLC, “Chrysler Group reports full year 2011 net income of $183 million”, 1 February 2012; Jeremy Cato, “Chrysler’s future rests on the Dart”, Globe and Mail, 9 February 2012. 58 Chrysler Group LLC, “Chrysler Group reports full year 2011 net income of $183 million”, 1 February 2012; Jeff Bennett and Gilles Castonguay, “Fiat increases ownership in Chrysler to 58.5%”, Dow Jones, 5 January 2012; Larry Vellequette, “Dart is first Dodge with Fiat roots”, Automotive News, 9 January 2012. 59 Jesse Snyder, “N.A output: More growth in ‘12”, Automotive News, 30 January 2012; Automotive News Data Center, North American Production by Model: December 2011 and 12 months. 60 Supplier Business, “Japanese industry rebounds as 2011 ends”, HIS Global Insight, 9 January 2012; Scott Deveau, “Japanese automakers post stellar November; Parts issues resolved”, Financial Post, 2 December 2011. 61 Jesse Snyder, “For Toyota, finally more cars and sales”, Automotive News, 5 December 2011. 62 Automotive News Data Center, U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Nameplate, December & 12 Months; Wendy Soong, “December and year-to date U.S. light vehicle market share”, Bloomberg, 5 January 2012. 63 DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, Total Light Vehicle in Canada – December 2011 and Year End; December 2011 and Sunny Freeman, “Canadian auto sales up nearly two percent in 2011, in best year since recession”, Canadian Press, 4 January 2012. 64 Automotive News Data Center, North American Production by Model: December 2011 and 12 months. 65 Paul Newton, “Toyota’s Q3 net profit slips 14% Y/Y, operating profit up 51%, full-year guidance raised”, IHS Global Insight, 7 February 2012. 66 Paul Newton, “Toyota’s Q3 net profit slips 14% Y/Y, operating profit up 51%, full-year guidance raised”, IHS Global Insight, 7 February 2012. 67 Greg Keenan, “Toyota Canada’s new head lays out recovery plan”, Globe and Mail, 9 January 2012. 68 Hans Greimel, “Toyota, Honda aim for record global sales in 2012”, Automotive News, 22 February 2012. 69 Kevin Krolicki, “Honda sees U.S. sales rebound of 23 pct in 2012”, Reuters, 20 December 2011; Mark Richtin, “Honda fixing inventories now, the Civic in the fall”, Automotive News, 13 February 2012. 70 Cheng-Ran Kim,“Honda slashes profit outlook on disasters, sees rebound”, Reuters, 31 January 2012. 71 Automotive News Data Center, U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Nameplate, December & 12 Months; Wendy Soong, “December and year-to date U.S. light vehicle market share” Bloomberg, 5 January 2012.
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 16
72 DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, Total Light Vehicle in Canada – December 2011 and Year End; “Honda Canada reports annual sales for 2011”, Dow Jones, 4 January 2012. 73 Jesse Snyder, “Toyota, Honda begin to rebuild”, Automotive News, 6 February 2012; Mark Richtin, “Honda fixing inventories now, the Civic in the fall”, Automotive News, 13 February 2012. 74 Automotive News Data Center, North American Production by Model: December 2011 and 12 months. 75 Canada News Wire, “Honda celebrates mass production of the 2012 CR-V here in Canada”, 23 January 2012. 76 Ellen Mitchel, “Analysts expect healthy earnings for suppliers”, Automotive News, 18 January 2012. 77 Kim Korth, IRN Inc., “Strengthening the competitive position of automotive suppliers”, APMA Regional Conference, Windsor, Ontario, 16 February 2012. 78 OESA and Deloitte, LLP, OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer Summary, January 2012. 79 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0025 GDP at basic prices by NAICS and province, annual, CANSIM (accessed 17 January 2012). 80 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0027 GDP at basic prices by NAICS, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 81 Location Canada, Canadian Industry’s Recipe for Success, by Lisa A. Bastian, 10 April 2010. 82 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0027 GDP at basic prices, by NAICS, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 83 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0025 GDP at basic prices, by NAICS and province, annual, CANSIM, (accessed 17 January 2012). 84 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0027 GDP at basic prices by NAICS, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 85 Statistic Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, unadjusted for seasonal variation, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 86 Industry Canada, Trade Data Online (accessed 5 March 2012). 87 Statistics Canada, Table 304-0015 Manufacturing Sales, by NAICS and province, monthly, seasonally adjusted, CANSIM (accessed 5 March 2012). 88 Bombardier Inc., “Garuda Indonesia Confirmed as Previously Unidentified Bombardier CRJ1000 NextGen Aircraft Buyer,” 15 February 2012. 89 Bombardier Inc., “Horizon Air Orders Two Bombardier Q400 NextGen Airliners,” 15 February 2012. 90 Bombardier Inc., “Bombardier Confirms Ethiopian Airlines as Buyer of Five Q400 NextGen Airliners,” 15 February 2012. 91 The Canadian Press, “Bombardier opens Singapore office to better serve fast-growing Asia-Pacific region,” canadianbusiness.com, 14 February 2012. 92 Bombardier Inc., “Bombardier Establishing OEM-Owned Service Centre in Singapore for Business Aircraft,” 15 February 2012. 93 The Canadian Press , “Bombardier opens Singapore office to better serve fast-growing Asia-Pacific region,” canadianbusiness.com, 14 February 2012. 94 Jon Ostrower, “Bombardier's Beaudoin steps up CSeries defence,” flightglobal.com, 17 February 2012. 95 Liana B. Baker and Allison Martell, “UPDATE 1-Bombardier satisfied with C-Series orders, CEO says,” Reuters, 16 February 2012. 96 The Canadian Press, “Aero R&D funding should be maintained or boosted: association,” canadianmanufacturing.com, 14 February 2012. 97 “Canada’s Top 100 Corporate R&D Spenders 2011”, Re$earch Infosource Inc., November 2011. 98 “Harper Government Ensuring Canadian Aerospace Industry Soars”, Industry Canada, 27 February 2012. 99 “Harper Government Ensuring Canadian Aerospace Industry Soars”, Industry Canada, 27 February 2012. 100 Government of Ontario, Invest in Ontario: Life Sciences, accessed 6 March 2012. 101 Mergent Industry Reports, Pharmaceuticals – North America, 1 June 2011. 102 Conference Board of Canada, Canada Pharmaceutical Products Industry – Industrial Profile 2012, February 2012. 103 Statistics for Canada, Canadian Life Sciences Database (accessed 21 February 2012) 104 Government of Ontario, Invest in Ontario: Life Sciences, accessed 6 March 2012. 105 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, CANSIM (accessed 28 February 2012). 106 Statistics Canada, Table 304-0015 Manufacturing Sales, by NAICS and Province, Monthly, Unadjusted, CANSIM (accessed 28 February 2012). 107 Industry Canada, Trade Data on-line (accessed 28 February 2012). 108 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0027 GDP at Basic Prices, by NAICS, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 28 February 2012).
ONTARIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MARCH 2012 UPDATE 17
109 Conference Board of Canada, Canada’s Pharmaceutical Products Industry: Industrial Profile Winter 2012, February 2012. 110 Conference Board of Canada, Leading Indicator of Industry Profitability, February 2012. 111 Tim Kiladze, “Venture capitalist targets biotech sector,” Globe and Mail, 27 February 2012. 112 PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Inflection Point: 2011 Canadian Life Sciences Industry Forecast, January 2011. 113 Ontario Bioscience Economic Strategy Team, Building a Sustainable and Prosperous Bioscience Sector in
Ontario: The Ontario Bioscience Industry Strategic Implementation Plan - Final Report, June 2011. 114 Thomson Reuters, “2011 Overview of Canada’s Venture Capital Industry”, (accessed 28 February 2012). 115 Press Release, GlaxoSmithKline Inc. Launches $50 Million Life Sciences Innovation Fund in Canada, 10 November 2011. 116 BMI Industry Insights – Pharma & Healthcare, Americas, Regulatory Developments – Canada – Q1 2012, 19 December 2011. 117 Andy Hoffman, “Canadian biotech firms ‘missing the boat’ in Asia,” Globe and Mail, 15 February 2012. 118 PwC, Combining Strengths, Maximizing Impact: The Quebec –Ontario Life Sciences Corridor, June 2011. 119 www.techvision.com (accessed 21 February 2012) 120 Ontario Technology Corridor, “Ontario Technology Corridor at Interop New York 2011 to attract new/expanding information communications technology (ICT) companies,” 3 October 2011. 121 Statistics Canada, Business Register, 2010. 122 Christine Dobby, “Canada’s 50 fastest growing tech companies,” Financial Post, 19 October 2011. 123 Re$earch Infosource Inc, Canada’s Top 100 Corporate R&D Spenders List, 2 November 2011. 124 Statistic Canada, Table 379-0025, GDP at basic prices, by NAICS and province, Chained 2002 dollars, CANSIM (accessed 18 January 2012). 125 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0027, GDP at basic prices, by NAICS and province, Chained 2002 dollars, CANSIM (accessed 27 February 2012). 126 Conference Board of Canada, Canada’s Computer and Electronic Products Industry: Industrial Profile Winter 2012, February 2012 127 Statistics Canada, Table 304-0015, Manufacturing Sales, by NAICS and Province, Monthly, Unadjusted, CANSIM (accessed 27 February 2012). 128 Industry Canada, Trade Data Online; for NAICS 3333, 3341, 3342, 3343, 3344, 3345, and 33592 (accessed 27 February 2012). 129 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023, Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, unadjusted for seasonal variation by type of employee NAICS, CANSIM (accessed 27 February 2012). NAICS include 3333, 334, 3359, 4173, 4179, 5112, 517, 518, 5324, 5415, 8112. 130 “Toronto IT job market is second hottest in North America, study says,” ITBusiness, 12 February 2012. 131 Associated Press, “Employee group reporting 1,100 IBM Job Cuts,” Wall Street Journal, 28 February 2012. 132 Chloe Albanesius, “RIM Touts PlayBook Apps, Actively Courting Bigger Players,” PCMag.com, 28 February 2012. 133 Press Release, RuggedCom Board Agrees to C$33.00 per share Cash Offer from Siemens, 30 January 2012. 134 Press Release, Semtech Announces Plans to Acquire Gennum Corporation, 23 January 2012. 135 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0025 GDP at basic prices by NAICS and province, annual, CANSIM (accessed 8 February 2012). Note: GDP data does not include firms dealing primarily in securities or non-depository credit intermediation, while employment data does include these firms. 136 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0027 GDP at Basic Prices, by NAICS, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 1 March 2012). 137 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and hours, unadjusted for seasonal variation, CANSIM (accessed 1 March 2012). 138 Z/Yen Group, Global Financial Centres Index 10.5, by Mark Yeandle, February 2012. 139 Mark Hopkins, “A Finer View of Canada: New Metro Area Forecasts”, Moody’s Analytics, 21 November 2011. 140 Data from quarterly earnings reports released by each bank. 141 “Scotiabank earnings rise 11%”, CBC News, 2 December 2011. 142 Grant Robertson, “RBC profit climbs 43 per cent”, Globe and Mail, 2 December 2011. 143 “CIBC Q4 earnings: Banks sees 11 per cent boost in revenue”, Canadian Press, 1 December 2011. 144 “TD Bank Q4 Earnings: Profit Jumps To $1.57 Billion On Strong Domestic Demand”, Canadian Press, 1 December 2011. 145 Olivia D’Orazio, “BMO Q4 profit rises 21%, misses earnings views”, Proactiveinvestors, 6 December 2011.
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146 Olivia D’Orazio, “BMO Q4 profit rises 21%, misses earnings views”, Proactiveinvestors, 6 December 2011. 147 David Friend, “CIBC Q4 earnings beat expectations”, Canadian Press, 1 December 2011. 148 Grant Robertson, “RBC profit climbs 43 per cent”, Globe and Mail, 2 December 2011. 149 “TD Bank Q4 Earnings: Profit Jumps To $1.57 Billion On Strong Domestic Demand”, Canadian Press, 1 December 2011. 150 “Scotiabank earnings rise 11%”, CBC News, 2 December 2011. 151 John Greenwood, “Bankers lash out at Moody’s list”, Financial Post, 15 February 2012. 152 “Announcement: Moody's Reviews Ratings for Banks and Securities Firms with Global Capital Markets Operations”, Moody’s Investors Services, 15 February 2012. 153 Cameron French, “Manulife takes loss on writedown, CFO to leave”, Reuters, 9 February 2012. 154 Tara Perkins, “Sun Life posts fourth-quarter loss of $525-million”, Globe and Mail, 17 February 2012. 155 Cameron French, “Manulife takes loss on writedown, CFO to leave”, Reuters, 9 February 2012. 156 Sunny Freeman, “Sun Life Financial loses $525 million in Q4 on big one time charge”, Canadian Press, 15 February 2012. 157 Drew Hasselback and Barbara Shecter, “Supreme Court rules against Ottawa’s single-regulator move”, Financial Post, 22 December 2011. 158 Investing in Ontario, Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport, last modified February 8, 2012, http://www.mtc.gov.on.ca/en/invest/invest.shtml. 159 Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport, “Tourism-Related Industries Employment in Ontario in November 2011”, released February 2012. 160 Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport, “Tourism Performance Bulletin November 2011”, released February 2012. 161 Statistics Canada, Table 427-0005 Number of international travellers entering or returning to Canada, by province of entry, seasonally adjusted, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 2 March 2012). 162 Statistics Canada, Table 427-0005 Number of international travellers entering or returning to Canada, by province of entry, seasonally adjusted, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 2 March 2012). 163 Statistics Canada, Table 379-0027 GDP at Basic Prices, by NAICS, quarterly, CANSIM (accessed 2 March 2012). 164 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, CANSIM (accessed 2 March 2012). 165 Statistics Canada, Table 427-0005 Number of international travellers entering or returning to Canada, by province of entry, seasonally adjusted, monthly, CANSIM (accessed 2 March 2012). 166 Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport, “Tourism Performance Bulletin November 2011”, released February 2012. 167 Ontario Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates”, January 2012. 168 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, CANSIM (accessed 2 March 2012). 169 Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport, “Tourism Performance Bulletin November 2011”, released February 2012. 170 Tourism Toronto, “Toronto Reaches Milestone in Tourism Performance,” 30 January 2012. 171 Tourism Toronto, “Toronto Reaches Milestone in Tourism Performance,” 30 January 2012. 172 Conference Board of Canada, Travel Markets Outlook Autumn 2011, January 2012. 173 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, CANSIM (accessed 22 February 2012). 174 Ontario Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates”, January 2012. 175 Statistics Canada, Table 281-0023 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, CANSIM (accessed 17 February 2012). 176 Statistics Canada, Table 081-0011 Wholesale trade, sales by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), monthly (dollars) (accessed 17 February 2012). 177 Statistics Canada, Table 080-0020 Retail trade by NAICS, monthly, seasonally adjusted, CANSIM (accessed 17 February 2012). 178 Statistics Canada, Table 080-0020 Sales by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), monthly, CANSIM (accessed 17 February 2012).
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179 Retail Council of Canada, Retail Conditions Report: ‘The Easy Days are Over – Slow Growth, No Momentum,’ 21 February 2012. 180 Josh Rubin, “Sears Canada cuts 400 employees, many in the Toronto, in the second downsizing in months,” Toronto Star, 24 January 2012. 181 Josh Rubin, “Sears Canada cuts 400 employees, many in the Toronto, in the second downsizing in months,” Toronto Star, 24 January 2012. 182 Marina Strauss, “Sears to close three stores in top markets,” Globe and Mail, 2 March 2012. 183 Marina Strauss, “Sears Canada slashes prices on 5,000 items,” Globe and Mail, 16 February 2012. 184 Josh Rubin, “Sears Canada cuts 400 employees, many in the Toronto, in the second downsizing in months,” Toronto Star, 24 January 2012. 185 The Associated Press, “Buffalo to Canadian shoppers: Thanks for the boost,” Globe and Mail, 21 February 2012. 186 David Kaufman, “Northern exposure,” Financial Times, 13 January 2012. 187 Canada Newswire, “Hudson's Bay Company Acquires Lord & Taylor,” Canada Newswire, 23 January, 2012. 188 The Canadian Press, “Wal-Mart Canada to spend $750 million on new, remodelled stores,” Toronto Star, 7 February 2012. 189 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, January 2012. 190 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Employment by Detailed Industry, Unadjusted (accessed 22 February 2012). 191 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Employment by Detailed Industry, Unadjusted (accessed 22 February 2012). 192 Statistics Canada, Table 002-0002 Farm cash receipts, quarterly, CANSIM (accessed 22 February 2012). 193 The Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada’s Farm Income Forecast for 2011 and 2012, February 2012 194 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Employment by Detailed Industry, Unadjusted (accessed 22 February 2012). 195 Statistics Canada, Table 304-0015 Manufacturing Sales, by NAICS and Province, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, CANSIM (accessed 22 February 2012). 196 The Canadian Press, “Ottawa may extend forest products programs,” Canadian Manufacturing, 2 February 2012 197 Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 2 – Winter 2012. 198 The Canadian Press, “Ottawa may extend forest products programs,” Canadian Manufacturing, 2 February 2012 199 The Canadian Press, “Ottawa may extend forest products programs,” Canadian Manufacturing, 2 February 2012 200 Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, “Harper Government Secures Access to U.S. Market for Softwood Lumber Until 2015,” Press release, 23 January, 2012. 201 Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 2 – Winter 2012. 202 Ontario Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Production by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates”, January 2012. 203 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Employment by Detailed Industry, Unadjusted (accessed 22 February 2012). 204 Industry Canada, Trade Data Online (accessed 22 February 2012). 205 Matthew Hill, “Oliver pushes for Ring of Fire development,” Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly, 31 January 2012. 206 Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 2 – Winter 2012. 207 Richard Corley, Ted Betts, and Atbin Dezfuli, “Ontario Power Authority Announces First Review of Feed-In Tariff Program”, Blakes, 11 November 2011. 208 Ontario Power Authority, Bi-Weekly FIT and microFIT Program Report, Data as of 3 February 2012 and 28 October 2011. 209 “World Market recovers and sets a new record: 42 GW of new capacity in 2011, total at 239 GW”, World Wind Energy Association, 7 February 2012. 210 Angus McCrone, “Onshore wind energy to reach parity with fossil-fuel electricity by 2016”, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 10 November 2011. 211 Lisa Grace Marr, “Putting more wind in offshore project’s sails”, Hamilton Spectator, 15 November 2011. 212 Andrew Dreschel, “Council talks out of both sides of its mouth”, Hamiton Spectator, 18 November 2011. 213 Shirley Won, “Uncertainty clouds struggling solar power industry”, Globe and Mail, 14 November 2011. 214 “Bank Sarasin's sustainability study on the solar industry: Just a few German solar companies will survive the market shakeout”, SolarServer, 21 November 2011.
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215 Perry Hoffman, “Eclipsall, Bilagot and others working to lower costs of solar energy systems”, Canadian Green Tech, 2 November 2011. 216 Justin Malecki, “What The Flux?!”, ClearSky Advisors, 22 December 2011.
