UNCLASSIFIED T uesday, 18 November, 200 8 Summary: This product provides a summary of recent reporting in open sources on the closure of the border between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC, China). Please direct your questions and comments to MAJ Steve Sin, Chief, USFK J2 OSINT: DSN – (315) 725-5045, Commercial – +82-2-7915-5045, or Email – [email protected]Information contained in this document is entirely derived from unclassified, open source, information. This product is basedexclusively on the content and behavior of selected media and has not been coordinated with other US Government components. This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. UNCLASSIFIED
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8/14/2019 Open Source Reporting on the Border Closure between North Korea and China (November 2008)
Summary: This product provides a summary of recent reporting in open sources on the
closure of the border between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North
Korea) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC, China).
Please direct your questions and comments to MAJ Steve Sin, Chief, USFK J2 OSINT: DSN –
(315) 725-5045, Commercial – +82-2-7915-5045, or Email – [email protected]
Information contained in this document is entirely derived from unclassified, open source, information. This product is based exclusively on the content and behavior of selected media and has not been coordinated with other US Government components.This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners.
Summary: Numerous recent open source reporting stated that the PRC may be in theprocess of quietly preparing itself to cope with a crisis situation on their border with NK.Reports include the PRC military build ups in the region, local authorities implementingcontingency plans, stoppage of Chinese visitors into the DPRK, and rigorous ID checks
of North Korean-Chinese or NK nationals in China traveling to NK by train.
The PRC and the US governments have both denied any knowledge of these reports.In response to questions on these topics; PRC President Hu Jin Tao replied “I have notheard of any unusual circumstances on the China-DPRK border.” When asked aboutthe reports of closing the border, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "I haven'theard of any abnormal circumstances on the border between China and North Korea."Robert Wood, Deputy Spokesman of the US Department of State stated, “I hadn’t heardthat…I need to take a look at the reports and follow up on them before I can give youany comment” during a daily press briefing when asked about the validity of the reportson Chinese troop movements.
The governments of NK and the ROK have remained silent on these topics.
Border Closing: Several news sources have reported that sometime in Oct, NK beganrestricting overland border traffic with the PRC. A representative of a travel agency inDandong, China, said, "Since mid-October, it has been possible for Chinese tourists totravel to North Korea only by air from Beijing and Shenyang in Liaoning Province." AChinese railroad official in Dandong said freight trains were still able to cross into NorthKorea.
The travel agent added,“ID checks have also
become more rigorous forNorth Korean-Chinese orNK nationals in Chinatraveling to NK by train”and "It's unprecedentedthat NK is now allowingonly air travel fromDandong even though theannual quota for Dandonghas not been used upyet." There are reportsthat travel by train from
Hunchun City, JilinProvince, on the easternborder has also beensuspended, but this maybe due to the annual allocation of travelers set by North Koreahaving been met for this area.
The customs office in Dandong, the biggest trade channel for NK, was closed from 20Dec last year until early Jan, but it will close on 10 Dec this year. Chinese tourists' air
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8/14/2019 Open Source Reporting on the Border Closure between North Korea and China (November 2008)
travel to NK, too, will likely be suspended from at that time as well.
NK experts in China speculate that the measures might be related to Kim Jong-il'sworsening health or an internal change in NK. They said, however, "We haven't heard
anything from the NK authorities as to why this is happening."
Park Young-ho of the ROK’s Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) said, “Byrestricting the flow of Chinese visitors, NK seems to be trying to have a firmer grip on itsinternal situation, especially with Kim Jong-il’s suspected health problems receivingglobal attention.”
When asked about the reports of closing the border and a PRC military buildup in thearea, PRC President Hu Jin Tao replied to both issues with, “I have not heard of anyunusual circumstances on the China-DPRK border.” Similarly, a Chinese ForeignMinistry spokesman said, "I haven't heard of any abnormal circumstances on the borderbetween China and North Korea."
Troop Buildup: The Financial Times reportedthat according to USofficials, the Chinesemilitary has boosted troopnumbers along the borderwith North Korea sinceSep amid mountingconcerns about the healthof Kim Jong-il.
One official cautionedthat the increase inChinese troops was not“dramatic”, but he saidChina was alsoconstructing more fencesand installations at keyborder outposts.
Additional reporting included the unnamed US officials stating that the Chinese Armywas increasing troop numbers in apparent preparation for a possible influx of refugeesdue to instability, or regime collapse, in North Korea
In response, the Chinese embassy spokesman in Washington said he was unaware ofany increased deployments. Robert Wood, Deputy Spokesman of the US Departmentof State stated, “I hadn’t heard that…I need to take a look at the reports and follow up onthem before I can give you any comment” during the daily press briefing on 13 Nov whenasked about the validity of these reports.
Preparations: According to a document posted on the PRC official website portal of theYanbian Korean Nationality Autonomous Prefecture People's Government in Jilin
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8/14/2019 Open Source Reporting on the Border Closure between North Korea and China (November 2008)
Province near the NK border, “the emergency management in the border region shouldbe concentrated on beefing up intelligence and information collection, controlling illegalimmigrants from the DPRK and security management, and strengthening the ability tomanage and control the situation, thereby raising the level of emergency management in
the border region.”
The document highlighted that “information collection should be focused on the `threepossibilities’ – NK’s wavering determination on denuclearization, occurrence ofunexpected incidents in particular areas, or a massive influx of NK personnel.”
USFK J2 OSINT ASSESSMENT: Given the absence of verifiable data and corroborating information, it is difficult to assess the validity of reporting on these subjects; however, if these reports are accurate, it indicates the PRC is concerned about the possibility of a sudden flow of refugees from NK. Most likely, this sudden influx would be a result of internal instability or regime collapse in NK brought on by a power vacuum or struggle in the wake of Kim Jong-il, due sickness or death, not being physically able to continue to control the country.
While there is reporting that suggests Kim Jong-il has recently suffered a stroke, possibly two, there is no open source reporting that the NK government is experiencing stability issues.
The PRC is probably taking precautionary steps in light of rumors of Kim Jong-il’s illness and the eventuality that the NK’s leader will one day no longer be in power and NK may fall into an unstable situation or even collapse.
