Opportunities for Australia to supply soft wheat for cake and biscuit applications in Asia
Dr Siem Siah, Grains Research Scientist, AEGIC
GRDC Grains Research Updates 2019
Background
• 20-30 years ago Australia produced a limited amount of soft wheat (ASFT), often < 500kt, now <100kt
• Some buyers have expressed interest in purchasing soft wheat from Australia
• ANW is a made up soft-grained wheat developed for production of udon noodles in Japan and South Korea.
In some seasons a portion of noodle wheat does not meet ANW specifications (ANW2).
• What do today’s buyers want/expect from soft wheat including ASFT?
• Is there an opportunity to use ANW2 and possibly ASW for other end use applications?
• This technically based preliminary research project was aimed at:
• Understanding the current soft wheat quality preferences and requirements in selected markets
• Assessing the fit of ASFT and ANW2 in end use applications, with a focus on Japan and Indonesia
Soft wheat – soft texture kernel, low hardness and usually low in protein content
Soft White Winter (SWW) & Western White (WW)
• US Pacific North West (PNW) produced 5.7 Mt of SWW (5 year average)
• Club wheat
• Sub-class of SWW (<6%)
• Blended at least 20% in WW
Mill
ion tonnes
Source: U.S. Pacific Northwest Soft White Wheat Quality Report
PRODUCTION OF SOFT WHITE (SWW)
Nearly 80% of US soft wheat is sold to Asian markets
• Demand for SWW can be considered elastic for many markets owing to its relative price competitiveness and versatility
• Perhaps except for Japan, SWW is also used as a blending wheat when values compete - much like ASW
North Asia61%
South East Asia 15%
MEA10%
Americas7%
Other 7%
US Soft wheat exports 2010 to 2018Average exports 4.78mmt
US Soft White and Club wheat exports ('000 t) 2013/14 to 2017/18 (Average export of 4.5mmt /year)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Thousand t
onnes
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
SWW production is trending slightly downwards over the last decade - at a slightly slow rate than other US wheat classes
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US Soft White Wheat Production (mmt)
WHEAT, SPRING, WHITE, SOFT
WHEAT, WINTER, WHITE, SOFT
Linear (WHEAT, SPRING, WHITE, SOFT )
Linear (WHEAT, WINTER, WHITE, SOFT )
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
191
9
192
4
192
9
193
4
193
9
194
4
194
9
195
4
195
9
196
4
196
9
197
4
197
9
198
4
198
9
199
4
199
9
200
4
200
9
201
4
US Wheat Planted (ha) and Yield (t/ha)
Wheat - Hectares Planted WHEAT - YIELD, MEASURED IN T / Ha
Source: USDA NASS National Stat and Publications from wheat (link from US Wheat Associates web site)
SWW is regularly the cheapest grade of US wheat sold to export markets
• Daily port pricing
data over past
six years has US
SWW (Pacific
North West) at
an average
discount of
• USD29/mt less
than APW
(Kwinana port)$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
1/1
0/2
01
3
1/1
2/2
01
3
1/0
2/2
01
4
1/0
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01
4
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01
4
1/0
8/2
01
4
1/1
0/2
01
4
1/1
2/2
01
4
1/0
2/2
01
5
1/0
4/2
01
5
1/0
6/2
01
5
1/0
8/2
01
5
1/1
0/2
01
5
1/1
2/2
01
5
1/0
2/2
01
6
1/0
4/2
01
6
1/0
6/2
01
6
1/0
8/2
01
6
1/1
0/2
01
6
1/1
2/2
01
6
1/0
2/2
01
7
1/0
4/2
01
7
1/0
6/2
01
7
1/0
8/2
01
7
1/1
0/2
01
7
1/1
2/2
01
7
1/0
2/2
01
8
1/0
4/2
01
8
1/0
6/2
01
8
1/0
8/2
01
8
Aust vs US FOB wheat values 2013-2018 (USD/mt)SWW ex PNW, APW ex KWN
SWW APW Poly. (SWW) Poly. (APW)
Freight Advantage in Shipping Wheat
2017/18 figures
From Kwinana vs
Vancouver to Jakarta
• Freight advantage -
US$10-15 cheaper
• Shipping durations
– 10 days vs 30
days
US Soft White and Club wheat exports ('000 t) 2013/14 to 2017/18Average export of 4.5mmt /year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Thousand t
onnes
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Market sizes - IndonesiaSales of Cakes Sales of Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit
Snacks
Source: Euromonitor International
US
D m
illio
n
Market sizes - JapanSales of Cakes Sales of Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit
Snacks
Source: Euromonitor International
Sweet biscuits will drive future demand
To 5 Asia Pacific Countries
2018
sales
(USD billion)
CAGR%
(2018-2023)
China $4.93 3.4%
Japan $4.31 2.8%
India $3.90 6.2%
Indonesia $1.34 7.8%
South Korea $0.94 -0.2%
Other $3.68
Source: Euromonitor International
Approach – collaboration with Asian mills
• Choice analysis – to understand wheat quality preferences
• Technical exchange - to understand wheat quality requirements
INDONESIA JAPAN
• Growing market
• Pays more attention to biscuit
quality – large volume
• Close proximity to Australia
• High value & quality demanding
• Pays more attention to cake
quality – high value product
• Believes if flour performs well in
cakes, will perform well in biscuits
Materials and methods
INDONESIA JAPAN
CHOICE ANALYSIS
• 4 x flour mills (>80% market share) • 5 x flour mills (>80% market share)
• 16 participants (T:12, P:4) • 29 participants (T:20, P:9)
• Market research technique to study how flour mills prioritise wheat quality attributes.
• Survey questions in a statistically balanced design & requires a lower number of participants to
achieve statistical significance than traditional survey methods.
TECHNICAL TRIALS
• Biscuit trials with 2 flour mills (1 of the flour
mills only conducted 1 year study)
• Sponge cake trials with 2 mills.
• Indonesian mills’ in-house QC method. • Japanese mills’ in-house QC method.
• 2016/17 and 2017/18 harvest, from eastern & Western Australia.
Indonesia – biscuit preference
• > 30 attributes analysed
• SRC* values and biscuit spread ratio are the most important for Indonesian mills.
• Physical grain characteristics were least important to technical participants
• Full results must first be considered by project funding providers
*SRC – Solvent Retention Capacity
Japan – cake preference
• Cake sensory properties – ‘melting-in-mouth’ and cake volume are the most important for Japan.
Cake ‘melting-in-mouth’ - a quality of sponge
cake with light, moist and soft texture that
dissolves right away in mouth when chewing
Trial 1 results: Indonesian Mill A
SRC
water
SRC
sucrose
SRC
lactic
acid
SRC
sodium
carbonate
SWW, P=8.3%
SWW, P=10.2%
ASF, P=9.1%
ASE, P=8.6%
ANW2a, P=9.0%
ANW2b, P=8.9%
ASW, P=8.5%
Green shades = fit with SRC specs
Gr a
de
A c
om
me
r ci a
l f l
ou
r
Gr a
de
B c
om
me
r ci a
l f l
ou
r
SW
W,
P=
8. 3
%
SW
W,
P=
10
. 2%
AS
E,
P=
8. 6
%
AS
F,
P=
9. 1
%
AN
W2
a,
P=
9. 0
%
AN
W2
b,
P=
8. 9
%
AS
W,
P=
8. 5
%
0
2
4
6
8
1 0
C o o k i e S p r e a d R a t i o
a
a a aa a
a a
a
Trial 2 results: Indonesian Mill A
Green shades = fit with SRC specs*Same sample from Trial 1
Sample Water SRCSucrose
SRC
Lactic Acid
SRC
Sodium
Carbonate
SRC
SWW*, P=10.2%
ASF, P=7.8%
ASE, P=9.0%
ANW2, P=9.2%
ASW W, P=8.3%
ASW E, P=9.6%
Gr a
de
A c
om
me
r ci a
l f l
ou
r
Gr a
de
B c
om
me
r ci a
l f l
ou
r
SW
W,
P=
10
. 2%
AS
F,
P=
7. 8
%
AS
E,
P=
8. 6
%
AN
W2
, P
=9
. 2%
AS
W W
, P
=8
. 3%
AS
W E
, P
=9
. 6%
0
2
4
6
8
1 0
C o o k i e S p r e a d R a t i o
aa , b
b bb
bb
c
Trial 1 Results: Japanese Mill A
ANW2b
P=9.0%
ASW
P=8.5%
ASF
(2)
WW
P=10.2
%
ASFT
P=9.1%
ANW2a
P=8.9%
Sample ASFT ANW2-a ANW2-b ASW
Volume (cc) 955 963 945 882
Softness Soft Soft Soft Firm
Moistness Moist Slightly less moist Slightly less moist Dry
Smoothness Smooth Slightly not smooth Slightly not smooth -
Ranking 1 2 3 4For illustration purposes only
Trial 2 results: Japanese Mill A
WW
P=10.0
%
ASF W
P=7.8%
ASF E
P=8.9%
ANW2
P=9.2%
ANW1a
P=10%
ANW1b
P=9.5%
Sample WW ASF W ASF E ANW2
Volume (cc) 957.5 937.2 1004 1033
Melt-in-mouth Control Acceptable Acceptable -
Softness Control - Soft Soft
Moistness Control - Moist Slightly less
moist
Smoothness Smooth - Smooth -
Overall
acceptability
Control Marginally
acceptable
Acceptable Acceptable
For illustration purposes only
Trial 1 results: Japanese Mill B
Sample WW ASF ANW2-a ANW2-b ANW2:WW
(50:50)
ANW2:ASW
(50:50)
Volume (cc) 1274 1179 1222 1193 1223 1080
Smoothness Control Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft, cohesive
Melting-in-mouth* Control Bad Slightly bad Slightly bad Slightly bad Slightly bad
Overall
Acceptability
Control Not
acceptable
Marginal
acceptable
Marginal
acceptable
Acceptable Not acceptable
WW, P=8.8% ASF,P=9.1
%WW ANW2a,P=8.9%
WW ANW2b,P=9.0% WW ANW2a:ASW (50:50),P=8.7%
For illustration purposes only
Overall Findings
Indonesia - biscuits Japan – Cakes
• Solvent retention capacity (SRC) and
cookie spread ratio are the most
important quality parameters for
Indonesian mills
• ANW2 and ASFT make cookies with
higher spread ratio than that of ASW and
they were comparable to that of SWW
• Similar to SWW, the SRC values of
Australian soft-grained wheat do not
always meet their quality specification
• Cake textural property i.e. ‘melting-in-
mouth’ and softness, and cake volume
are the most important quality attributes
for Japanese mills
• ANW2 and ASFT produce cakes with
bigger volume than those of ASW and
they were comparable to those of WW
• The cake sensory property of ANW2 and
ASFT was acceptable for one mill but
slightly less acceptable for the other mill
Conclusions
• There is a growing demand for soft wheat in some Asian countries.
• This preliminary quality based research has revealed:
• the quality targets and preferences by market
• there are “some” positive indicators for ASFT and ANW in end use applications using soft wheat
• many current importers are happy with existing product and would need incentive to change
• there are many other factors to consider (e.g. can Australian breeders produce higher yielding soft wheats, future US SWW plantings, projected future demand for soft wheats, etc). Further information will be communicated to stakeholders in coming months
Acknowledgements
• GRDC for providing research funding (GRDC Project Extension AEG006).
• Indonesian and Japanese collaborators.
• InterGrain, LongReach, Stirlings to Coast Farmers, CBH, Premium Grain Handlers P/L, Tony Guiness and Allied Mills for providing samples.
• AEGIC Soft Wheat Team: Dr Ken Quail, Mr Barry Cox, Mr Sean Cowman, Mr Matt Yamamoto, Dr Chris Carter and Dr Siem Siah.
• The technical assistance provided by Mr Daniel Li and Miss Sabrina Lim.
• Mr Peter Elliott, AEGIC, at initial stage of project concept development.