OPTIMISING DH RETURN ON

INVESTMENTS LEVERAGING

ON ADVANCED DECISION

SUPPORT SYSTEMS

Dublin, 12th April 2019

© Optit, 2019

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OPTIT AT A GLANCE

Founded in 2007

Spinoff of the

Operations Research

(OR) team of the

University of Bologna

We develop solutions

and services based on

advanced analytics,

machine learning &

mathematical

optimisation

Young and highly skilled

team: everyone holds a

STEM Master Degree

or PhD

We are

Data scientists,

Business consultants,

Operations Research

specialists,

SW application dev.

professionals

We work for medium

and large enterprises

in several industries:

Energy, Waste,

Logistics, Retail, etc.

We participate in the

scientific community

and active in fostering

“Operations Research

in Practice”

2 main Offices

Consultancy services

and Commercial HQ in

Bologna

SW Factory in Cesena

30+

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KNOW HOW TRANSFER

OUR APPROACH

Starting from current processes and business

objectives, our consultants help you qualify the business issues to be

addressed

We are strongly focused on (even big) data, as our

scientists «crunch» them to extract insights, answer

questions (and – mostly –make new, better ones)

We combine tools and techniques of mining,

machine & deep learning, optimisation in order to

identify a full «resolution strategy» for the issue

We can develop and deploy high level SW, from «black-box» model to enterprise

application, with guarantee of high level standards and

high degree of flexibility

BUSINESS ISSUEDATA

MANAGEMENT

MODELLING,

ANALYSIS &

OPTIMISATION

SOLUTION

Optimisation

Mining

Machine learning Analytics

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OUR VALUE PROPOSITION FOR THE

DISTRICT ENERGY INDUSTRY

GENERATION DISTRIBUTION DEMAND

Investment

Optimisation

Operations

Optimisation

DSS for Energy

production

optimisation

DSS for network

development

optimization

Advanced analytics

methodologies

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DH NETWORK DEVELOPMENT OPTIMISATION

How to plan District Heating (& Cooling)

Network Development roadmaps that

maximise the Return on Invested Capital

(i.e. Net Present Value), amongst

countless possible options?

Geographic dimension of the

business issue (go beyond Excel)

CHALLENGES FOR DECISION MAKING

€

Several possible potential

scenarios (what-if)

THE BUSINESS OBJECTIVE

Economic value assignments on

costs and revenues sides

Thermal-hydraulic feasibility

analysis of proposed solutions

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OPTIT’S SOLUTION’S KEY FEATURES

Tariffs &

Capex/Opex

€Financial

parameters

Import + Puntual

editing /drawing

Technical

constraints

Existing & potential

pipings & usersExisting &

potential plants

Advanced

Scenario Mgmt

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DH DEVELOPMENT OPTIMIZATION

Expansion of

existing networksDevelopment of new

DHC networks

Saturation of existing

networks

Economic KPIs of each

scenario

Optimal strategy for

new customer

connections

Strategic evaluation of

recontractualization

of existing customers

after demand reduction

Network extension to

optimise NPV / ROI

Optimal dimensioning

of the potential piping to

respect thermal-

hydraulic constraints

Dimensioning of new

connection piping

Technical analysis of

the new network set-up

Maximization of heat

production capacity for

further development

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DH SCENARIO ANALYSIS SIMULATION

Evaluation of Integration of new

sources

Thermal-hydraulic network physical

model (pressure, velocity, heat

balances)

Investment Analysis Technical Analysis

Analyses of fault & maintenance

Resizing of existing piping to be

revamped

Validation and refinement of pre-set

network expansion scenarios

Impact assessment of new

economic frameworks

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FROM ANALYSIS TO CONSTRUCTION SITE

Via Martinetti - Milan

The tool allows for a smooth transition of the

feasibility and commercial analysis from

Marketing & Sales to Engineering department

DECISION DRIVERS INTEGRATION

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OUR VALUE PROPOSITION FOR THE

DISTRICT ENERGY INDUSTRY

GENERATION DISTRIBUTION DEMAND

Investment

Optimisation

Operations

Optimisation

DSS for Energy

production

optimisation

DSS for network

development

optimization

Advanced analytics

methodologies

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ENERGY PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION

CHALLENGES FOR DECISION MAKING

THE BUSINESS OBJECTIVE

How to maximise Operating Margins

of complex Energy CHCP Production

Systems in view of variation of

demand, prices and operating

conditions?

Energy demand forecasting

Fine granularity (60’-15’- …) €€

Complex plant configuration

Multiple cost/revenue factors

Technical and operative constraints

Operating and managing reports

Electricity demand

Heat demand

Chill demand

Endothermal

engine

Boiler

Heat storage

Absorption chillerHeat pump

External source

Compression Chiller

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LONG LASTING AND EVER EVOLVING EXPERTIZE IN

AN INCREASINGLY COMPLEX INDUSTRY

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Manual Mgmt

Optimised Mgmt

Automatised Mgmt€

Trading integration

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A FULLY ENGINEERED SOLUTION

INPUT DATA ACQUISITION

KEY PROCESS MODULES

OPTIMAL PLANNING & MONITORING

Field data integration Meteo data

€Prices & costsConfiguration

FORECASTING LONG TERM SHORT TERMINFRA-DAY &

TRADING

Demand profiles Market management Unit committmentBudget & Constraints

€€

€ € €

1y 1d

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OPTI-EPM (ENERGY PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT)

Browser Application

Multi-user !

Multi-plant

Alerting & MonitoringOptiEPM

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Block-based plant design & configuration:

FLEXIBLE PLANT CONFIGURATION

Energy flows defined by topological constraints

Multiple energy demand management (e.g. different Temp)

Single block configuration

Multi-plant interactions

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DEMAND PROFILE FORECASTING

Historical data

Operating data

Meteo data

INPUT DATA DEMAND PROFILE

Electric

Thermal

ChillSpecific drivers

MULTI-LINEAR

REGRESSION

INERTIAL

MODELS

NEURAL

NETWORKS

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LONG TERM OPTIMISATION (BUDGET) & WHAT-IF

WHAT-IF

Long term Planning:

Multiple budget scenarios

Optimal assignment of annual constraints targets

Detailed operating plans for each plant asset

Alternative scenario simulations:

1. Production assets redesign

2. Sensitivity analysis on demand and prices

3. Investment analysis

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SHORT TERM OPTIMIZATION

Short term planning:

Plant assets operating plans

Intra-day optimization

Small time-step granularity (60” or 15”)

Operating margin

maximization

AUTOMATED PROCESS

€

Field data

Meteo data

Elec. prices

Daily schedule

PLC READY

Remote Control

WEB API

WEB API

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EXAMPLE OF AN OPTIMAL SOLUTION

Absorbtion chillers

CHPs

Electrical Chillers

Boilers

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FLEXIBLE & SCALABLE SUPPORT OPPORTUNITIES

SOFTWARE

(AS A SERVICE)CONSULTING

• Plant design & fuel mix impact

analysis based on optimised

operations (feasibility analysis)

• Day-by-day Plant Management

optimisation in production

environment

• Network development (strategic)

optimization analysis

• Simulation of scenarios to support

or validate feasibility analysis

• Application of advanced

analytics techniques to available

user data

• Development of District Energy

advanced analytics customised

tools (perspective)

• Network development (tactical /

commercial) optimization analysis

• Operations optimisation & simulation

(perspective)

Initiate the DH upgrading

process for 8 systems up

to the investment stage

(Generation, Distribution,

Use)

Produce Best Practices

and Tools Handbooks

Develop regional / national

action plans for DHN

retrofitting

Replicate the proposed

solutions across Europe

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme

under grant agreement No 785014. The sole responsibility for the content of this report lies with the authors. It does

not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union nor of the Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized

Enterprises (EASME). Neither the EASME nor the European Commission are responsible for any use that may be

made of the information contained therein.

Improving existing DH

networks in Europe:

H2020 PROJECT – GOOD SOURCE

FOR GOOD PRACTICES AND TOOLS

Optit srlLegal Office: Viale Amendola, 56/d 40026 Imola (BO)

Office in Cesena: Via Ravennate 959

47521 Cesena (FC) Tel: 0547 385703 fax 0547 072802

Office in Bologna: Via Mazzini 82

40138 Bologna (BO) Tel: 051 4381574 Fax: 0514381575

P.I. 02756991200 - www.optit.net

optitsrl_en