Options for Forest
Management for Coping with
Climate change in South Asia
Prof N H Ravindranath
Indian Institute of Science
Bangalore -12
Forests and South Asia
(Total area = 76 Mha; 19% of land area)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
B anglades h India Nepal P akis tan S ri L anka
Are
a (
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1990
2000
2005
Why worry about climate change and Forests
�Forest accounts for nearly 4 billion ha
globally and nearly 20% in south Asia.
�Forests provides a number of services� biodiversity
� raw materials for industry
� livelihoods to large number of forest dependent and rural
communities
� Forests are critical for protection of from floods,
cyclones - e.g., MANGROVES
� Forests provide large mitigation potential
� Climate change could impact biodiversity &
mitigation potential
� Adaptation requires long-term planning.
Outline for
presentation
1. Climate change projections.
2. Projected impacts of
Climate change on forests.
3. Adaptation options /
strategies / policies.
4. Options for Forest
management under
changing climate
Temperature RiseRainfall
Projections
IPCC – 2007; IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
� Observed discernable impact of climate change
on forests and forest functions – literature
� A-third of the known biodiversity is likely to face
the risk of extinction - 2100
� Likely changes structure and functions such as
diversity, maintenance, productivity, carbon
sequestration, water cycling, etc., projected
� Enhanced natural disturbances such as fires,
pests and extreme climatic events
ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON
FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN INDIA
�Hadley Centre climate model
� HadRM3 regional climate model
outputs
�GHG Scenarios
� A2 (740 ppm) and B2 (575 ppm CO2)
�Vegetation model for assessing
climate impacts
� BIOME 4; Equilibrium model
�Initiated dynamic global vegetation
model based assessment.
BIOME MODEL BASED IMPACTS ON
FOREST BIOMES
(B2 SCENARIO)
IBIS - Impact of climate change on forest types under climate change scenario SRES A2 (1975 - 2085)
1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice
PERCENTAGE OF GRIDS UNDER DIFFERENT
FOREST TYPES UNDERGOING CHANGE
under A2 & B2 GHG SCENARIOS
0
20
40
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Impact of climate change on forest in
Pakistan
� Shifts in forest types; Cold and temperate
conifers will show a northward shift, pushing
against the cold conifer/mixed woodland,
� The average NPP increase of different biomes,
over the base year of 1990 is estimated as 12% in
the year 2020 and 19% in the year 2040-50
(calculated) under the climate change scenarios.
Mitigation and adaptation –
options exist in forest sector
Why Adaptation? When uncertainty in Impact
Assessment
� Impacts will be irreversible; e.g., loss of biodiversity
� Inertia in response to changing climate
�Long gestation period in development & implementation of adaptation practices
�Waiting for full knowledge – high risk
�Large ecological, economic and social implications
Focus on “win – win” adaptation options
Potential Adaptation practices
� Anticipatory planting of species
- along latitude and altitude
- promote assisted natural regeneration
� Promote mixed species forestry
- species differ in temperature tolerance.
� Develop and implement fire protection and
management practices.
� Adopt thinning, sanitation and other practices.
� Promote in situ and ex situ conservation of genetic
diversity.
� Develop drought and pest resistance in
commercial tree species.
� Adopt sustainable forest management practices.
Adaptation Policies
� Incorporate adaptation practices in forest planning:
� short term and long term.
� Promote forest conservation:
� since biodiversity rich forest are less vulnerable due to
varying temperature tolerance.
� Halt forest fragmentation
� to promote migration of species.
� Link protected areas and create corridors
� to promote migration.
� Promote community forestry.
� Capacity building to develop and implement adaptation
strategies.
Limitations
�Limitations of reliable regional climate
projections
�Limitations of dynamic vegetation models
specific to tropical forests
�Limitations of data on vegetation, soil,
water, etc parameters for modeling
�Absence of adaptation models.
�Absence of long term monitoring studies� Development and Adoption of DGV models to assess
� transient responses not assessed
Impact of Climate Change on other Natural
Ecosystems
1. Inland Wetlands
2. Mangroves
3. Coral reefs
4. Montane grasslands
5. Animal species; habitats of mammals and other species
6. Mountain ecosystems
Limited or no studies in south Asia
Based on published studies & IPCC conclusions
“all natural ecosystems likely to be adversely impacted”
Research NETWORK;
Impacts and Adaptation & Mitigation
1. Ecological research on plant and animal species and communities in relation to climate variability and change
2. Dynamic vegetation modeling of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems, biodiversity and adaptation
3. Impact of climate change on mitigation potential, carbon sinks and adaptation
4. Assessment of Adaptation practices, strategies and policies
6. Policy Analysis Research and Support for Climate Negotiations