Order and ChaosOrder and Chaos

Explaining Regional Variation Explaining Regional Variation in the World-Systemin the World-System

I. Regional Differences in World I. Regional Differences in World PoliticsPolitics

A.A. Peace and ConflictPeace and Conflict1. War and Peace “Clusters”1. War and Peace “Clusters”

War Clusters: 1990sWar Clusters: 1990s

Clusters of Peace as of 1992Clusters of Peace as of 1992

2. Mass Killing Clusters: 1900-19252. Mass Killing Clusters: 1900-1925

2. Mass Killing Clusters: 1925-19502. Mass Killing Clusters: 1925-1950

2. Mass Killing Clusters: 1950-19752. Mass Killing Clusters: 1950-1975

2. Mass Killing Clusters: 1975-20002. Mass Killing Clusters: 1975-2000

3. Terrorism Clusters3. Terrorism Clusters

4. Key Points4. Key Points

a.a. Certain areas are conflict-prone Certain areas are conflict-prone (clusters)(clusters)

b.b. Location changes over timeLocation changes over timeTherefore, cause must also be something that Therefore, cause must also be something that

changes over timechanges over time

B. EconomicsB. Economics1.1. Poverty and Prosperity: GDP Per Capita Poverty and Prosperity: GDP Per Capita

2. Social Welfare2. Social Welfare

a. Hunger

b. Infant Mortalityb. Infant Mortality

3. Economic System3. Economic Systema. Today: Clustering of Property Rights (Capitalism)

b. Clusters Over Time: b. Clusters Over Time: CommunismCommunism

4. Key points4. Key points

a.a. Clusters on major economic indicatorsClusters on major economic indicators

b.b. Location changes over time: expansion Location changes over time: expansion and contraction around edges of clustersand contraction around edges of clusters

c.c. Overlap between Economic / War Overlap between Economic / War clusters clusters Related? Related?

C. GovernmentC. GovernmentSouth AmericaSouth America or or WorldWorld change. 2006: change. 2006:

D. Political RegionsD. Political Regions

1. “Zones of Chaos” – War-prone, poor, 1. “Zones of Chaos” – War-prone, poor, authoritarian, unstable, deadlyauthoritarian, unstable, deadly

2. “Zones of Stability” – Peaceful, wealthy, 2. “Zones of Stability” – Peaceful, wealthy, healthy, democratichealthy, democratic

3. Questions: How do these zones form and 3. Questions: How do these zones form and change?change?

II. A Clash of Civilizations?II. A Clash of Civilizations? “ “The fundamental source of conflict in this new The fundamental source of conflict in this new

world will not be primarily ideological or primarily world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”

Samuel P. Huntington

A. AssumptionsA. Assumptions

1.1. Conflict over values Conflict over values not power or resources! not power or resources!

2.2. Key value divide changes over timeKey value divide changes over timea.a. Colonialism and Nationalism: West vs. the RestColonialism and Nationalism: West vs. the Rest

b.b. 2020thth Century Ideologies: Fascism vs. Democracy, Century Ideologies: Fascism vs. Democracy, Communism vs. CapitalismCommunism vs. Capitalism

c.c. Post Cold War: Cultural IdentitiesPost Cold War: Cultural Identities

3.3. Key actors = civilizations, not statesKey actors = civilizations, not states

4.4. Culture Clash Culture Clash Internal / External Conflict Internal / External Conflicta.a. Religion = Indivisible StakesReligion = Indivisible Stakes

b.b. Identity trumps other concernsIdentity trumps other concerns

5. The Map of Civilizations5. The Map of Civilizations

a. Religion determines some a. Religion determines some civilizational borderscivilizational borders

Major religion(CIA Factbook 2001)

Buddhist (11)Hindu (3)Jewish (1)Muslim (49)Orthodox (11)Other (9)Protestant (46)Roman catholic (56)

b. “Identity” determines the restb. “Identity” determines the rest

West – Latin America divide: ethnicity?West – Latin America divide: ethnicity?

Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” What is the basis for this bloc?What is the basis for this bloc?

African civilization: Essentially what was left African civilization: Essentially what was left after drawing other civilizationsafter drawing other civilizations

6. Alignments shape civilizational 6. Alignments shape civilizational conflictsconflicts

7. Universalism = Conflict7. Universalism = Conflicta.a. There are no “universal” political desiresThere are no “universal” political desires

b.b. Modernization Modernization ≠ Westernization≠ Westernization

B. Implication: Internal Unity = StrengthB. Implication: Internal Unity = Strength

1.1. Don’t be Don’t be multiculturalmulticultural

a.a. Enemies will Enemies will try to foment try to foment intra-societal intra-societal conflictconflict

b.b. Beware Beware immigration immigration from other from other civilizations civilizations

2. Test: Does Immigration Cause 2. Test: Does Immigration Cause Internal Violence?Internal Violence?

a. Europea. Europe

Does High Does High % % foreign-foreign-born born cause cause more more conflict?conflict?

b. US: Patterns of Immigrationb. US: Patterns of Immigrationi. 1966-1970 period of riots: unrelatedi. 1966-1970 period of riots: unrelated

ii. Social Strife and Immigration, ii. Social Strife and Immigration, 1880-1914: relationship1880-1914: relationship

c. Immigration by Region: Compare c. Immigration by Region: Compare to Conflict Mapsto Conflict Maps

d. Areas of inter-civilizational migration: d. Areas of inter-civilizational migration: Which civilizations should be weak?Which civilizations should be weak?

C. Implication: Pushing Democracy C. Implication: Pushing Democracy and Capitalism = Civilizational Conflictand Capitalism = Civilizational Conflict

1.1. Democracy is Western value system: Democracy is Western value system: Separation of church and state, rule of law, social Separation of church and state, rule of law, social pluralism, representative bodies, individualismpluralism, representative bodies, individualism

2.2. Market capitalism is Western:Market capitalism is Western:Competition, property rightsCompetition, property rights

3. Test: Is Democracy “Western”?3. Test: Is Democracy “Western”?a. World Values Survey – Questions about democracy, human rights, politics, religion, etc.

Key Dimensions

Democratic Performance:

• Democracies are indecisive and have too much squabbling

• Democracies aren’t good at maintaining order

Democratic Ideals:

• Democracy may have its problems but it is better than any other form of government

• I approve of having a democratic political system

b. Results – b. Results – i. i. Democratic Performance/Ideals: No Difference!Democratic Performance/Ideals: No Difference!

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ii. Other surveys ii. Other surveys reveal…reveal…

Important differences Important differences do exist do exist withinwithin Islamic civilizationIslamic civilization

c. What about “Asian Values?”c. What about “Asian Values?”

Asia vs. US/Canada: Support for Asia vs. US/Canada: Support for Free Market DemocracyFree Market Democracy

D. Implication: “Fault Lines” and Culture D. Implication: “Fault Lines” and Culture Clashes Predict ConflictClashes Predict Conflict

1. “Islam Has Bloody Borders and 1. “Islam Has Bloody Borders and Bloody Innards”Bloody Innards”

a. Interstate War (Bloody Borders)a. Interstate War (Bloody Borders)

Middle East is unusually prone to warMiddle East is unusually prone to war

RegionRegion is a better predictor than is a better predictor than religionreligion: non-: non-Islamic ME states fight as much as Islamic ME Islamic ME states fight as much as Islamic ME states, and Islamic non-ME states fight as much states, and Islamic non-ME states fight as much as non-Islamic non-ME statesas non-Islamic non-ME states

Interstate wars within civilizations (since 1950):Interstate wars within civilizations (since 1950):– Sinic and Buddhist have more than expected by Sinic and Buddhist have more than expected by

chancechance– West has fewer than expected by chanceWest has fewer than expected by chance– Islam and other civilizations are about averageIslam and other civilizations are about average

Which civilizations fight the most?Which civilizations fight the most?Islamic civilization has plenty of conflicts….

…but other civilizations have more “civilizational” conflicts!

b. Internal War (Bloody Innards)b. Internal War (Bloody Innards)

ME region is more likely to experience political ME region is more likely to experience political terror and human rights violations BUT region terror and human rights violations BUT region again outperforms religionagain outperforms religion– Exception: Catholic countries experience higher levels Exception: Catholic countries experience higher levels

of repression than non-Catholic neighborsof repression than non-Catholic neighbors

Oil wealth correlates with both repression and Oil wealth correlates with both repression and civil war around the worldcivil war around the worldSome majority-Muslim countries are Some majority-Muslim countries are democracies (Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, democracies (Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Lebanon) – but most are poor and poor Lebanon) – but most are poor and poor countries tend to experience violence and countries tend to experience violence and repressionrepression

c. Demographics of Islamc. Demographics of Islam

• What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? • About 90%About 90%

• What percentage of Muslims are Arab?What percentage of Muslims are Arab?• About 20%About 20%

• The largest Muslim country is…The largest Muslim country is…• IndonesiaIndonesia

• Where do Muslims live?Where do Muslims live?• Only 33% live in the Middle EastOnly 33% live in the Middle East• 25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa

d. Does Islam “Teach Violence?”d. Does Islam “Teach Violence?”

i. Violence not a i. Violence not a necessarynecessary part of faith: part of faith:Universal Brotherhood [49:13]Universal Brotherhood [49:13]

No Forced “Conversion” [2:256]No Forced “Conversion” [2:256]

Peaceful Co-existence [60:8-9]Peaceful Co-existence [60:8-9]

Jihad = multiple meaningsJihad = multiple meanings

ii. Religion used to justify political actionsii. Religion used to justify political actionsIranian clergy vs. elected officialsIranian clergy vs. elected officials

Osama bin Laden’s declaration of jihadOsama bin Laden’s declaration of jihad

2. Statistical evidence on “Fault 2. Statistical evidence on “Fault Lines”Lines”

a. Little evidence of cultural wars 1819-1989a. Little evidence of cultural wars 1819-1989

b. Post-1989:b. Post-1989:i. States of different civilizations LESS likely to i. States of different civilizations LESS likely to

fight than states of same civilizationsfight than states of same civilizationsControls for contiguity, power, democracyControls for contiguity, power, democracy

ii. Ethnic diversity ii. Ethnic diversity ≠ civil war≠ civil warControls for economic growth Controls for economic growth

c. Did the end of the Cold War mark a new c. Did the end of the Cold War mark a new era of conflict?era of conflict?

i. i. DecreaseDecrease in conflicts in conflicts

ii. No change in ratio of ii. No change in ratio of “civilizational” to non-civilizational “civilizational” to non-civilizational conflicts – and both have declinedconflicts – and both have declined

d. Are inter-civilizational conflicts worse?

E. Implication: Balance of Power E. Implication: Balance of Power Shifting Shifting

a.a. West will decline: Demographics and Development West will decline: Demographics and Development (recall Power Transition predictions)(recall Power Transition predictions)

b.b. Beware an Islamic-Sinic allianceBeware an Islamic-Sinic alliance

F. Do people in different civilizations F. Do people in different civilizations have important value differences?have important value differences?

1. West vs. Islam: Gender/Sexuality = 1. West vs. Islam: Gender/Sexuality = Division, Not Religious Leadership!Division, Not Religious Leadership!

2. Gender: 2. Gender: West vs. West vs. the Restthe Rest

3. Categorizing major values 3. Categorizing major values a. a. Tradition vs. SecularismTradition vs. Secularism and and

Survival vs. Self-ExpressionSurvival vs. Self-Expression

b. Regional value differences exist…b. Regional value differences exist…

c. …But Country Trumps Religion!c. …But Country Trumps Religion!

d. Simplest explanation: Income!d. Simplest explanation: Income!

III. Contagion?III. Contagion?

A.A. Processes of contagion in IRProcesses of contagion in IR1.1. Diffusion: Affinity, Alliances, or Spill-OverDiffusion: Affinity, Alliances, or Spill-Over2.2. Emulation: Modeling or HarmonizationEmulation: Modeling or Harmonization3.3. Opportunism: Altered decision calculusOpportunism: Altered decision calculus

A. Contagious ConflictsA. Contagious Conflicts

1.1. DiffusionDiffusiona. Affinity: Ethnicity and Wara. Affinity: Ethnicity and War

i.i. Irredentism: Unite group in one stateIrredentism: Unite group in one state

ii.ii. Secessionism: Separate group from stateSecessionism: Separate group from state

iii.iii. Examples:Examples:• Greece and Crete Revolts – “enosis”Greece and Crete Revolts – “enosis”• Turkey and Kurds – “Mountain Turks”Turkey and Kurds – “Mountain Turks”• Macedonia and Kosovo – “Greater Albania”Macedonia and Kosovo – “Greater Albania”

In Detail: Diffusion of War in In Detail: Diffusion of War in Africa’s Great Lakes RegionAfrica’s Great Lakes Region

In Depth: Diffusion of War in In Depth: Diffusion of War in Africa’s Great Lakes RegionAfrica’s Great Lakes Region

1950s-1970s: Hutu vs. Tutsi in Rwanda and 1950s-1970s: Hutu vs. Tutsi in Rwanda and Burundi: Tutsi refugees to Uganda, Congo/ZaireBurundi: Tutsi refugees to Uganda, Congo/Zaire

1980s: Civil war in Uganda – Tutsi exiles aid 1980s: Civil war in Uganda – Tutsi exiles aid Ugandan rebels Ugandan rebels victory victory

Early 1990s: Tutsi exile army invades Rwanda with Early 1990s: Tutsi exile army invades Rwanda with help from Uganda help from Uganda

1993: Arusha Accords – Agreement to share 1993: Arusha Accords – Agreement to share power between Hutu and Tutsipower between Hutu and Tutsi

1993: Massacres in Burundi – Hutu rebellion 1993: Massacres in Burundi – Hutu rebellion beginsbegins

1988: Tutsis Kill 20,000 Hutus1972: Tutsis Kill 100,000 Hutu Elites

1993: 50,000 Civilians Killed

1963: Invasion: 10,000 Tutsis Killed1959: Hutu Revolt Displaces Tutsis

1980-1988: Civil War: Tutsi Exiles Aid Rebels

1994: Genocide: Civil War Resumes1990-1993: Exile Invasion Civil War Cease-Fire

1994: Genocide in Rwanda1994: Genocide in Rwanda

1994: Genocide in Rwanda1994: Genocide in Rwanda

April 1994:April 1994:- Assassination of Rwanda and Burundi Assassination of Rwanda and Burundi

presidents (probably by Hutu extremists)presidents (probably by Hutu extremists)- Hutu extremists kill moderate Hutus in Hutu extremists kill moderate Hutus in

Rwanda, seize power, and systematically Rwanda, seize power, and systematically exterminate 80% of Tutsis (about 800,000 exterminate 80% of Tutsis (about 800,000 people)people)

- Tutsi rebels immediately restart civil war, Tutsi rebels immediately restart civil war, take control of countrytake control of country

- Hutu militants, 2 million Hutu civilians flee to Hutu militants, 2 million Hutu civilians flee to camps in Zairecamps in Zaire

1994: Flight of the Interahamwe1994: Flight of the Interahamwe

Security IssuesSecurity Issues

- Interahamwe threaten Rwandan Tutsis: Control Interahamwe threaten Rwandan Tutsis: Control camp resourcescamp resources

- Zaire’s Tutsis (Banyamulenge) fear the Zaire’s Tutsis (Banyamulenge) fear the InterahamweInterahamwe

- Burundi Hutu rebels ally with InterahamweBurundi Hutu rebels ally with Interahamwe- Zaire leader (Mobutu) sees an opportunity: Zaire leader (Mobutu) sees an opportunity:

preserve power by using Interahamwe against preserve power by using Interahamwe against enemies enemies classifies Banyamulenge as classifies Banyamulenge as “refugees” and revokes citizenship“refugees” and revokes citizenship

1996-1997: The Zaire War1996-1997: The Zaire War

September 1996: South Kivu province orders all September 1996: South Kivu province orders all Banyamulenge / Tutsi to leave or be sent to Banyamulenge / Tutsi to leave or be sent to “camps”“camps”

Rwanda sees opportunity: defend Tutsi in Zaire Rwanda sees opportunity: defend Tutsi in Zaire AND eliminate InterahamweAND eliminate Interahamwe

October 1996: ADFL revoltOctober 1996: ADFL revoltRebels attack Hutu camps, force refugees back to Rebels attack Hutu camps, force refugees back to

Rwanda. Zaire army melts away.Rwanda. Zaire army melts away.May 1997: ADFL seizes power – factional May 1997: ADFL seizes power – factional

infighting beginsinfighting begins

1996-1997: The Zaire War1996-1997: The Zaire War

DRC War: 1998 – 2000DRC War: 1998 – 2000“Africa’s World War”“Africa’s World War”

- 1997: Power struggle among ADFL elements 1997: Power struggle among ADFL elements Emergence of KabilaEmergence of Kabila

- Early 1998: Kabila seeks independence from sponsors Early 1998: Kabila seeks independence from sponsors (Rwanda, Uganda)(Rwanda, Uganda)

- Kabila expels Rwandan forces / Banyamulenge Kabila expels Rwandan forces / Banyamulenge Rebellion in Kivu (again)Rebellion in Kivu (again)

- Pro-rebel intervention: Uganda, Rwanda, and later Pro-rebel intervention: Uganda, Rwanda, and later Burundi (pro-Tutsi)Burundi (pro-Tutsi)

- Pro-government intervention: Angola (aiding its own civil Pro-government intervention: Angola (aiding its own civil war), Zimbabwe (preventing new regional power), war), Zimbabwe (preventing new regional power), Namibia, Sudan (anti-Uganda), Hutu rebels in Burundi, Namibia, Sudan (anti-Uganda), Hutu rebels in Burundi, InterahamweInterahamwe

- Other involvement: Both sides in Congo Republic war, Other involvement: Both sides in Congo Republic war, Ethiopia and Eritrea (Sudan Ethiopia and Eritrea (Sudan Ethiopia Ethiopia Eritrea), Chad Eritrea), Chad

““Africa’s World War”Africa’s World War”

2000: 2000: Stalemate and Stalemate and the Rwanda-the Rwanda-

UgandaUganda Conflict Conflict

Affinity and the DRC WarAffinity and the DRC War

Kinship matters: Kinship matters: Uganda Tutsi exiles – Rwanda Tutsi – Uganda Tutsi exiles – Rwanda Tutsi –

Banyamulenge – Burundi Tutsi governmentBanyamulenge – Burundi Tutsi governmentVSVSRwanda Hutu government – Burundi Hutu Rwanda Hutu government – Burundi Hutu

rebels – Hutu “Banyarwanda” in Zaire/DRCrebels – Hutu “Banyarwanda” in Zaire/DRCBUT... There are other reasons the war BUT... There are other reasons the war

spread (Banyamulenge massacre by spread (Banyamulenge massacre by Rwandan and Ugandan forces in 2002)Rwandan and Ugandan forces in 2002)

b. Alliances and War Escalationb. Alliances and War Escalation

Allies much more likely to intervene, though Allies much more likely to intervene, though probability < 25%probability < 25%Angola allied with Kabila against both sides’ Angola allied with Kabila against both sides’ enemies (UNITA and Rwanda-Uganda)enemies (UNITA and Rwanda-Uganda)

War occurs…War occurs… AlliedAllied Not Not AlliedAllied

Intervene, YESIntervene, YES 25%25% 2%2%

Intervene, NOIntervene, NO 75%75% 98%98%

c. Spill-Overc. Spill-Over•Refugees and “Negative Externalities”

•Bases and Safe Havens: Remember the Interahamwe?

2. Emulation2. Emulation

a.a. Institutions: Fear of new government Institutions: Fear of new government systemssystems

b.b. Learning: Wars as training groundsLearning: Wars as training grounds

Examples: “Liberation” movements (Cuba-Examples: “Liberation” movements (Cuba-Bolivia, China-Vietnam), Metternich’s Bolivia, China-Vietnam), Metternich’s “Holy Alliance”, Fear of “Red Spread”“Holy Alliance”, Fear of “Red Spread”

3. Opportunism3. Opportunism

Examples: Spanish Succession, Austrian Succession, French Examples: Spanish Succession, Austrian Succession, French RevolutionRevolutionLoot-seeking: Why did Rwanda and Uganda fight Loot-seeking: Why did Rwanda and Uganda fight each other each other in the DRC?in the DRC?In Detail: Iran-Iraq WarIn Detail: Iran-Iraq War– 1979: Iranian Revolution1979: Iranian Revolution– Late 1979: Moderate Iranians lose power struggleLate 1979: Moderate Iranians lose power struggle– Spring 1980: Attempted assassination of AzizSpring 1980: Attempted assassination of Aziz– September 1980: Iraq abrogates 1975 treatySeptember 1980: Iraq abrogates 1975 treaty– September-November 1980: Iraqi blitzkrieg offensive vs. IraniansSeptember-November 1980: Iraqi blitzkrieg offensive vs. Iranians– November 1980: Iraq offensive stallsNovember 1980: Iraq offensive stalls

November 1980-August 1988: November 1980-August 1988: StalemateStalemate

August 1988August 1988War ends War ends with with cease-firecease-fire

Up to 1 Up to 1 Million Million deaddead

C. Economic ContagionC. Economic Contagion1.1. DiffusionDiffusion

a.a. Affinity: Tourism, Remittances, ImmigrationAffinity: Tourism, Remittances, Immigration

b.b. Alliances: Incentive to trade more with allies Alliances: Incentive to trade more with allies than enemiesthan enemies

c.c. Spill-over: Alter economy of one state Spill-over: Alter economy of one state alter economies of neighborsalter economies of neighbors

In Detail: East Asian CrisisIn Detail: East Asian Crisis

May – July 1997: “Bahtulism” in ThailandMay – July 1997: “Bahtulism” in Thailand– Thai businesses begin to default on debts; Thai businesses begin to default on debts;

government promises to “buy” the bad loans but government promises to “buy” the bad loans but reneges; Thai banks begin to go under; fear of reneges; Thai banks begin to go under; fear of recession leads to beliefs that baht will be devaluedrecession leads to beliefs that baht will be devalued

– Attack on the baht: Foreign speculators exchange Attack on the baht: Foreign speculators exchange baht for dollars, betting they will get more baht for baht for dollars, betting they will get more baht for their dollars later.their dollars later.

– June 19: “We will never devalue the baht.” June 19: “We will never devalue the baht.” Repeated June 30.Repeated June 30.

– July 2: Devaluation of the bahtJuly 2: Devaluation of the baht

July 1997: Devaluation SpreadsJuly 1997: Devaluation Spreads

• Investor fears (similar Investor fears (similar problems in neighbors’ problems in neighbors’ economies) and competitive economies) and competitive pressure (need to devalue pressure (need to devalue to save export industries)to save export industries)

• 22ndnd: Attack on the : Attack on the Philippine peso Philippine peso devaluation on 11devaluation on 11thth • 88thth: Attack on : Attack on Malaysian ringgit Malaysian ringgit devaluation on 14devaluation on 14thth • 1111thth: Attack on : Attack on Indonesian rupiah Indonesian rupiah devaluation August 14devaluation August 14thth • 1414thth: Singaporean : Singaporean dollar devalueddollar devalued

• 2424thth: Currency meltdown.: Currency meltdown.

From Devaluation to RecessionFrom Devaluation to Recession• August-September 1997: Fears of August-September 1997: Fears of recession recession Actual slowdowns Actual slowdowns• October: Vietnam, Taiwan devalue October: Vietnam, Taiwan devalue Hong Kong stock market crashes Hong Kong stock market crashes global global plunge in stock markets (Dow Jones posts plunge in stock markets (Dow Jones posts biggest single-day loss, trading suspended)biggest single-day loss, trading suspended)• November: South Korean won and November: South Korean won and Japanese yen depreciate vs. US dollars Japanese yen depreciate vs. US dollars new round of stock market crashes as new round of stock market crashes as investors pull out of South Korea and investors pull out of South Korea and JapanJapan• Crashes Crashes Banks call in loans Banks call in loans Failing Failing businesses, unemployment businesses, unemployment recessions recessions in East Asiain East Asia

Exporting RecessionExporting Recession

2. Emulation2. Emulation

a.a. Institutions: Dollarization, Euros, Institutions: Dollarization, Euros, WTO/IMF standardsWTO/IMF standards

b.b. Learning: Copy success storiesLearning: Copy success stories

3. Opportunism3. Opportunism

““Beggar Thy Neighbor” and the Great Beggar Thy Neighbor” and the Great DepressionDepression

Free-RidingFree-Riding

““Race to the Bottom”Race to the Bottom”

Trading Economics for Politics (Cold War)Trading Economics for Politics (Cold War)

D. Problems with ContagionD. Problems with Contagion

1.1. Why some regions rather than others?Why some regions rather than others?

2.2. Modeling, Opportunism or Diffusion?Modeling, Opportunism or Diffusion?

3.3. Uncertain regional boundariesUncertain regional boundaries

4.4. Few specific predictionsFew specific predictions

IV. Security Communities?IV. Security Communities?

A.A. RequirementsRequirements1.1. Expectation of Nonviolence: Trust, Expectation of Nonviolence: Trust,

Predictability, KnowledgePredictability, Knowledge

2.2. ““We-feeling”We-feeling”

3.3. Shared long-term interests Shared long-term interests Reciprocity Reciprocity

4.4. Security Communities Security Communities Institutions, not the Institutions, not the other way aroundother way around

B. EmergenceB. Emergence

1.1. Democratic Peace? No democracy vs. Democratic Peace? No democracy vs. democracy wars democracy wars expectation of expectation of peaceful interactionpeaceful interaction

2.2. Interdependence? Creates common Interdependence? Creates common interests interests incentives for reciprocity incentives for reciprocity

3.3. Regime stability? Creates predictabilityRegime stability? Creates predictability

4.4. Interaction? Creates “we-feeling”?Interaction? Creates “we-feeling”?

C. Evidence: Regional Economic C. Evidence: Regional Economic OrganizationsOrganizations

1.1. ASEAN: Attempt to build a security community ASEAN: Attempt to build a security community – only minimal political conflict– only minimal political conflict

2. European Union: Expansion of a 2. European Union: Expansion of a Security CommunitySecurity Community

3. APEC: Too big?3. APEC: Too big?

Very Very little little authorityauthority

4. Mercosur4. Mercosur

Little real Little real coordination, but coordination, but regular regular interactioninteraction

6. Major Trade Blocs6. Major Trade Blocs

7. US FTAs: Trade Policy or Security Policy?7. US FTAs: Trade Policy or Security Policy?YearYear CountryCountry % US Exp% US Exp % US Imp% US Imp

19851985 IsraelIsrael 11 11

19891989 CanadaCanada 2323 1818

19941994 Mexico (NAFTA)Mexico (NAFTA) + 14+ 14 + 12+ 12

20012001 JordanJordan trivialtrivial trivialtrivial

20032003 ChileChile < 1< 1 < 1< 1

20032003 SingaporeSingapore 22 11

20042004 MoroccoMorocco trivialtrivial trivialtrivial

20052005 AustraliaAustralia 22 11

20062006 Central America (DR-CAFTA)Central America (DR-CAFTA) 22 11

20062006 BahrainBahrain trivialtrivial trivialtrivial

20072007 PeruPeru < 1< 1 < 1< 1

2008?2008? South Korea, Colombia, PanamaSouth Korea, Colombia, Panama variesvaries variesvaries

D. Evidence: Alliance NetworksD. Evidence: Alliance Networks

1.1. Must be focused on external threatMust be focused on external threat

2.2. Collective security provisions a plusCollective security provisions a plus

3.3. Examples: NATO, ANZUS, ???Examples: NATO, ANZUS, ???

E. Problems with Security E. Problems with Security CommunitiesCommunities

1.1. Causality not establishedCausality not established2.2. Eurocentric: projects other regions will Eurocentric: projects other regions will

follow path of Europefollow path of Europe3.3. 1919thth-Century European Peace: security -Century European Peace: security

community was absentcommunity was absent4.4. Parsimony: The “Liberal Peace” thesis Parsimony: The “Liberal Peace” thesis

(democracy/trade/IOs (democracy/trade/IOs peace) peace) explains war better, and peace explains war better, and peace tradetrade