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Ordering of Perceived Risk

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Ordering of Perceived Risk. Risk, Toxicology, and Human Health. G. Tyler Miller ’ s Living in the Environment 13 th Edition Chapter 11. Human Health. Health is a state of complete physical, mental, social and spiritual well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity or - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Ordering of Perceived Risk Activity League of Women Voters College Students Experts Nuclear Power 1 1 20 Motor Vehicles 2 5 1 Handguns 3 2 4 Smoking 4 3 2 Motorcycles 5 6 6 Alcoholic Bev. 6 7 3 General Aviation 7 15 12 Police Work 8 8 17
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Page 1: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Ordering of Perceived RiskOrdering of Perceived RiskActivity League of

Women VotersCollege

StudentsExperts

Nuclear Power 1 1 20

Motor Vehicles 2 5 1

Handguns 3 2 4

Smoking 4 3 2

Motorcycles 5 6 6

Alcoholic Bev. 6 7 3

General Aviation 7 15 12

Police Work 8 8 17

Pesticides 9 4 8

Surgery 10 11 5

Firefighting 11 10 18

X-rays 22 17 7

Page 2: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Risk, Toxicology, and Human HealthRisk, Toxicology, and Human Health

G. Tyler Miller’sLiving in the Environment

13th Edition

Chapter 11

G. Tyler Miller’sLiving in the Environment

13th Edition

Chapter 11

Page 3: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Human HealthHuman Health

• Health is a state of complete physical, mental, social and spiritual well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity

or• The ability to lead a socially and

economically productive life

Page 4: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Holistic Concept of HealthHolistic Concept of Health

• This concept recognizes the strength of social, economic, political and environmental influences on health

• Determinants– Heredity– Health and family welfare services – Environment– Life-style– Socio-economic conditions

Page 5: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Risk and ProbabilityRisk and Probability

Risk possibility of suffering harm from a hazard that can cause injury, disease, economic loss, or environmental damage.

Risk possibility of suffering harm from a hazard that can cause injury, disease, economic loss, or environmental damage.

Probability mathematical statement about how likely it is that some event or effect will occur.

Risk = pExposure x pHarm

Probability mathematical statement about how likely it is that some event or effect will occur.

Risk = pExposure x pHarm

Page 6: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Risk Assessment and ManagementRisk Assessment and Management

Page 7: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

1)1) Identifying hazardsIdentifying hazards• Risk assessmentRisk assessment

2)2) Ranking risksRanking risks• Comparative risk analysisComparative risk analysis

3)3) Determining optionsDetermining options• Risk managementRisk management

4)4) Informing decision makersInforming decision makers• Risk communicaitonRisk communicaiton

Page 8: Ordering of Perceived Risk

How well do we perceive risks?How well do we perceive risks?How well do we perceive risks?How well do we perceive risks?

Most of us do Most of us do poorlypoorly at assessing the at assessing the relative risks from the hazards that relative risks from the hazards that surround us.surround us.

Page 9: Ordering of Perceived Risk

What do you think are the highest risk hazards in the U.S.?

What do you think are the highest risk hazards in the U.S.?

Page 10: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Fig. 16.1, p. 396

DeathsCause of Death

Tobacco use 431,000

Alcohol use

Accidents

Pneumonia andInfluenza

Suicides

Homicides

Hard drug use

AIDS

150,000

95,600 (42,000 auto)

84,400

30,500

19,000

15,000

14,000

Page 11: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Fig. 16.15, p. 414

Hazard Shortens average life spanin the United States by

7-10 yearsPoverty

Born male

Smoking

Overweight (35%)

Unmarried

Overweight (15%)

Spouse smoking

Driving

Air pollution

Alcohol

Drug abuse

AIDS

Drowning

Pesticides

Fire

Natural radiation

Medical X rays

Oral contraceptives

Toxic waste

Flying

Hurricanes, tornadoes

Living lifetime nearnuclear plant

7.5 years

6 years

6 years

5 years

2 years

1 year

7 months

5 months

5 months

4 months

3 months

1 month

1 month

1 month

8 days

5 days

5 days

4 days

1 day

1 day

10 hours

Page 12: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Yet some of these people are terrified of dying from…

Yet some of these people are terrified of dying from…

• Commercial plane crash– 1 in 4.6 million

• Train crash – 1 in 20 million

• Snakebite – 1 in 36 million

• Shark attack – 1 in 300 million

Page 13: Ordering of Perceived Risk

ToxicologyToxicologyToxicologyToxicology

Toxicity measures how harmful a Toxicity measures how harmful a substance issubstance is. Toxicity depends on . .. Toxicity depends on . .

• DoseDose

– the amountthe amount of a potentially of a potentially harmful harmful substancesubstance a person has ingested, inhaled, a person has ingested, inhaled, or absorbed.or absorbed.

• ResponseResponse

– the type or amount of the type or amount of damagedamage

Page 14: Ordering of Perceived Risk

ToxicityToxicityToxicityToxicity

DoseDose - - the amount of a potentially harmful the amount of a potentially harmful substance a person has ingested, inhaled, or substance a person has ingested, inhaled, or absorbed.absorbed.

• SolubilitySolubility• PersistencePersistence• BioaccumulationBioaccumulation• BiomagnificationBiomagnification• Chemical interactionsChemical interactions

– Antagonistic: reducesAntagonistic: reduces– Synergistic: multipliesSynergistic: multiplies

Page 15: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Bioaccumulation and BiomagnificationBioaccumulation and BiomagnificationBioaccumulation and BiomagnificationBioaccumulation and Biomagnification

Fig. 11-4p. 231

Page 16: Ordering of Perceived Risk

ToxicityToxicityToxicity LD50 Lethal Dose Examples

Super < 0.01 less than 1 drop dioxin, botulismmushrooms

Extreme <5 less than 7 drops heroin, nicotine

Very 5-50 7 drops to 1 tsp. morphine, codeine

Toxic 50-500 1 tsp. DDT, H2SO4, Caffeine

Moderate 500-5K 1 oz.-1 pt. aspirin, wood alcohol

Slightly 5K-15K 1 pt. ethyl alcohol, soaps

Non-Toxic >15K >1qt. water, table sugar

(LD50 measured in mg/kg of body weight)

Page 17: Ordering of Perceived Risk

ToxicityToxicityToxicityToxicity

Response Response - - the type or amount of damagethe type or amount of damage

• Acute effect: immediate or rapidAcute effect: immediate or rapid

• Chronic effect: permanent or long Chronic effect: permanent or long lastinglasting

Page 18: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Genetic Variation in Individual Responses to Toxins

Genetic Variation in Individual Responses to Toxins

Page 19: Ordering of Perceived Risk

““The dose makes the poison.The dose makes the poison.””Paracelsus, 1540Paracelsus, 1540

““The dose makes the poison.The dose makes the poison.””Paracelsus, 1540Paracelsus, 1540

Anything can be harmful if ingested in Anything can be harmful if ingested in a large enough quantity.a large enough quantity.

Page 20: Ordering of Perceived Risk

PoisonsPoisons

• a chemical that has an a chemical that has an LDLD5050 of 50 mg or less per of 50 mg or less per kg of body weightkg of body weight

• LDLD5050

– The The medianmedian lethal dose lethal dose• The amount that The amount that kills kills

exactly 50%exactly 50% of the of the animals in a test animals in a test population, within a 14 population, within a 14 day periodday period

• Determined by Determined by controlled experimentscontrolled experiments

Page 21: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Laboratory InvestigationsLaboratory Investigations

• Animal Studies– Populations of lab animals usually rodents– Measured doses under controlled conditions– Takes two to five years– Costs $200,000 to $2,000,000 per substance

• Newer methods

Page 22: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Laboratory InvestigationsLaboratory Investigations

• Newer methods– Bacteria– Cell and tissue culture

• Appropriate tissue

• Stem cells

– Chicken egg membrane

Page 23: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Laboratory InvestigationsLaboratory Investigations

• Validity Challenged– Human physiology is different– Different species react different to same toxins

• Mice die with aspirin

– Species can be selected depending on physiological area

• Pigs circulatory very similar to humans

Page 24: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Major Types of HazardsMajor Types of Hazards

Chemical hazardsChemical hazards

Physical hazardsPhysical hazards

Fig. 11-1 p. 228Fig. 11-1 p. 228

Biological hazardsBiological hazards

Cultural hazardsCultural hazards

Page 25: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Chemical HazardsChemical Hazards

• Toxic chemicalsToxic chemicals– substances that are fatalsubstances that are fatal

• Hazardous chemicalsHazardous chemicals– cause harmcause harm

• Flammable or explosiveFlammable or explosive• Irritating or damaging to skin or lungsIrritating or damaging to skin or lungs• Interfering or preventing oxygen uptakeInterfering or preventing oxygen uptake• Inducing allergic reactionsInducing allergic reactions

Page 26: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Chemical HazardsChemical Hazards

• MutagensMutagens– Cause random changes in DNACause random changes in DNA

– Passed on to future generationsPassed on to future generations

• TeratogensTeratogens– cause birth defectscause birth defects

– alcohol, PCBs, thalidomide, steroid alcohol, PCBs, thalidomide, steroid hormones, heavy metalshormones, heavy metals

Page 27: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Chemical HazardsChemical Hazards

• CarcinogensCarcinogens– promote uncontrollable cell growth promote uncontrollable cell growth

(malignant or cancerous tumors)(malignant or cancerous tumors)– metastasismetastasis

• cells break off from tumors and travel in body cells break off from tumors and travel in body fluidsfluids

• Immune, Nervous, and Endocrine System Immune, Nervous, and Endocrine System disruptorsdisruptors– Viruses (HIV), Ionizing radiation, Diet, Viruses (HIV), Ionizing radiation, Diet,

Neurotoxins, Hormonally Active AgentsNeurotoxins, Hormonally Active Agents

Page 28: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Biological Hazards: DiseasesBiological Hazards: Diseases

• Non-transmissible diseaseNon-transmissible disease– not caused by a living organismnot caused by a living organism– is not spread from one person to is not spread from one person to

anotheranother

• Transmissible diseaseTransmissible disease– caused by living organismscaused by living organisms

• Bacteria, virus, protozoaBacteria, virus, protozoa

– is spread from one person to anotheris spread from one person to another

Page 29: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Biological Hazards: DiseasesBiological Hazards: Diseases

• PathogensPathogens – infectious agents – infectious agents• VectorsVectors – organisms that spread pathogens – organisms that spread pathogens

– InsectsInsects

WorldWorld’’s Seven Deadliest Diseasess Seven Deadliest Diseases– acute respiratory infectionacute respiratory infection– acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)– diarrheal diseasesdiarrheal diseases– tuberculosistuberculosis– malariamalaria– hepatitis Bhepatitis B– measlesmeasles

Page 30: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Biological Hazards: DiseasesBiological Hazards: Diseases

• Common Viral DiseasesCommon Viral Diseases1)1) influenza or fluinfluenza or flu

2)2) EbolaEbola

3)3) West Nile VirusWest Nile Virus

4)4) rabiesrabies

5)5) AIDSAIDS

• TreatmentTreatment– Immunization with vaccinesImmunization with vaccines

Page 31: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Anopheles mosquito (vector)

in aquatic breeding area

1. Femalemosquito bitesinfected human,ingesting bloodthat containsPlasmodiumgametocytes

4. Parasite invadesblood cells, causingmalaria and makinginfected persona new reservoir

3. Mosquito injects Plasmodiumsporozoites into human host

2. Plasmodiumdevelops inmosquito

eggs

larvapupa

adult

Malaria -

A Protozoal Disease

Page 32: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Waterborne BacteriaWaterborne Bacteria

Escherichia coli Vibrio sp.Barbara E. Moore, Ph.D., Department of Biology, University of Texas at San Antonio

• Disease symptoms usually are explosive emissions from either end of the digestive tract

Page 33: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Waterborne ProtozoansWaterborne Protozoans

Giardia sp.**P. Darben

Barbara E. Moore, Ph.D., Department of Biology, University of Texas at San Antonio

• Disease symptoms are usually Disease symptoms are usually explosive emissions from either explosive emissions from either end of the digestive tractend of the digestive tract

Page 34: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Waterborne Human VirusesWaterborne Human Viruses

Hepatitis A virus Hepatitis E virus

Norwalk virus* Rotavirus**F. Williams

Barbara E. Moore, Ph.D., Department of Biology, University of Texas at San Antonio

Page 35: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Case Study on Eradicating DracunculiasisCase Study on Eradicating Dracunculiasis

Water and Sanitation – Critical Elements in Development - Mike Lee CSU @ HaywardWater and Sanitation – Critical Elements in Development - Mike Lee CSU @ Hayward

Page 36: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Guinea Worm DiseaseGuinea Worm Disease• People have suffered from Guinea Worms for

centuries – the “fiery serpent” was mentioned in the bible

• People are infected by drinking water that contain the larvae in a tiny freshwater crustacean called Cyclops

• A year later, larvae mature into 3 feet worms that emerge through skin blisters

• This is such a painful process that men and women can’t work, children can’t attend school

Water and Sanitation – Critical Elements in Development - Mike Lee CSU @ Hayward

Page 37: Ordering of Perceived Risk

http://www.pmeh.uiowa.edu/fuortes/63111/GUINEA/

The Guinea Worm grows down the leg and its sex organs appear at the ankle or on the foot usually, bursting when it senses water, releasing ova.

The Guinea Worm grows down the leg and its sex organs appear at the ankle or on the foot usually, bursting when it senses water, releasing ova.

Water and Sanitation – Critical Elements in Development - Mike Lee CSU @ Hayward

Page 38: Ordering of Perceived Risk

• No vaccine for Guinea worm is available.

• People do not seem to build up any resistance and the disease can be reinfected over and over.

• No research is being conducted for any vaccine or cure.

• Worms are removed slowly each day by winding around a stick.

http://www.pmeh.uiowa.edu/fuortes/63111/GUINEA/Water and Sanitation – Critical Elements in Development - Mike Lee CSU @ Hayward

Page 39: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Spread of DiseasesSpread of Diseases

• Increases international travel• Migration to urban areas• Migration to uninhabited areas and deforestation• Hunger and malnutrition• Increased rice cultivation• Global warming• Hurricanes and high winds• Accidental introduction of insect vectors• Flooding

Page 40: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Reducing Spread of DiseasesReducing Spread of Diseases

• Increase research on tropical diseases and vaccines

• Reduce poverty and malnutrition• Improve drinking water• Reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics• Educate people on taking antibiotics• Reduce antibiotic use in livestock• Careful hand washing by medical staff• Slow global warming• Increase preventative health care

Page 41: Ordering of Perceived Risk

EpidemiologyEpidemiology

• Study of the distribution and causes of disease in populations– how many people or animals have a disease

– the outcome of the disease (recovery, death, disability, etc.)

– the factors that influence the distribution and outcome of the disease

Page 42: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Physical HazardsPhysical Hazards

• Ionizing radiation, airborne particles, equipment design, fire, earthquake, volcanic eruptions, flood, hurricane, tornado

• Example: Radon– Source:

• Arises naturally from decomposition of uranium in the Earth

• Occurs at dangerous levels in some buildings and homes “sick buildings”

– Can cause lung cancer

Page 43: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Cultural HazardsCultural Hazards

• Sociological– Results from living in a society where

one experiences noise, lack of privacy, and overcrowding• Population growth

– Beyond carrying capacity when environmental resources can support no further growth

Page 44: Ordering of Perceived Risk

Cultural HazardsCultural Hazards

• Psychological – Environmental factors that produce psychological

changes expressed in stress, depression and hysteria


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