Date post: | 14-Jan-2015 |
Category: |
News & Politics |
Upload: | neighborhoodpartnerships |
View: | 273 times |
Download: | 0 times |
OregonEconomic and Housing Update
Mark McMullen
State Economist,
Office of Economic Analysis
March 17, 2014
Housing Alliance
OregonRegional Economic Performance and
Outlook
Job Gains Have Accelerated, but Remain Somewhat Modest
Jan-50 Jan-60 Jan-70 Jan-80 Jan-90 Jan-00 Jan-10 (150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
Oregon Total Nonfarm EmploymentYear-over-Year Job Gains
Jan-50 Jan-60 Jan-70 Jan-80 Jan-90 Jan-00 Jan-10-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Oregon Total Nonfarm EmploymentYear-over-Year Job Growth
4
Oregon’s Employment Outlook
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10% Oregon Nonfarm Employment Growth (Y/Y)Recession Employment Expansion Average
Rural Areas Have Not Improved Until Recently
5
Job Growth Has Recently Become More Broad-Based
6
OregonHousing
Housing Metros Were Coming Back Strong
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Private Sector Growth Picking UpY/Y, 3MMA, QCEW
U.S. Hardest Hit Housing Metros
These are the 50 worst home price decline metros, per FHFA data.http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/11/07/hardest-hit-housing-metros/
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Permit Growth Has Decelerated Significantly
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Single Family Housing PermitsYear-over-Year Growth
Housing Metros US ex Housing MSAs
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Housing Stall Impacted Housing Metros the Most
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Interest Rates Slow Housing's Rebound
Mortgage Rate -->30 Yr Fixed
<-- Housing Metros Permit Growth Differential
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Affordability Slows Housing's Rebound
Housing Affordability-->NAR Composite Index
<-- Housing Metros Permit Growth Differential
Slowing Down Employment Too
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Private Sector EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted, 3 Month Moving Average
Medford CES
Bend CES
But Fundamentals Remain Solid
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
And Outlook is Bright
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Housing Starts Forecast
U.S. (millions, rhs) Oregon (lhs)
More Room for Improvement
14
OregonSupplemental Housing Data
Price Growth Will Remain Modest
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2017Q1
2018Q140
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Oregon Home Price IndexFHFA, 2000 Average = 100
Home Price Index Inflation Adjusted Home Price Index
Forecast-->
Supporting Affordability
Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-120%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Portland MSA Housing AffordabilityHousing Expense to Income Ratio
Affordability Threshold Conventional, 20% Down 10% Down, PMI
Affordability Thresholds in the Portland Metro Area
<$10k
$10-15k
$15-20k
$20-25k
$25-30k
$30-35k
$35-40k
$40-45k
$45-50k
$50-60k
$60-75k
$75-100k
$100-125k
$125-150k
$150-200k
>$200k$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Portland Housing Affordability and Income
Affordable Home Price (lhs) Share of Households (rhs)
Household Income
Market Volume Remains Low…
Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-03 Jan-07 Jan-11 -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Portland MSA Housing MarketRMLS Market Action Reports, SA 3 MMA
New Listings Closed Sales Median Price (rhs)
…but not Among Low-Price Houses
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 through
July
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Multnomah County Sales of Homes Under $90K
CondoSingle family
Low-End as a Share of Sales
21
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 through
July
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Multnomah Co: Sales Below $90K, % share of total
CondosSingle family
A Bit Easier to Get a Loan
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
2015-30-20-10
01020304050607080
Mortgage Lending StandardsSenior Loan Officer Survey
Recession Prime All
Tightening
Loosening
Demographics Suggest Further Shift to Multifamily…
1 3 5 7 9 11 13400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
2,800,000
Oregon Population by Housing TypeCPS, 3 Year Average
Ownership Rental
1 3 5 7 9 11 1320%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
Renter Share
1990s Average
…but Relatively High Rents Will Slow that Shift
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
50
75
100
125
150
175
Oregon Price to Rent Ratio2000 = 100
Portland Salem
Oregon Metropolitan Area Rents
25
Q2-2008
Q4-2008
Q2-2009
Q4-2009
Q2-2010
Q4-2010
Q2-2011
Q4-2011
Q2-2012
Q4-2012
Q2-2013$0.50
$0.55
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
Salem Metro Average Rent Per Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW Q2-2008
Q4-2008
Q2-2009
Q4-2009
Q2-2010
Q4-2010
Q2-2011
Q4-2011
Q2-2012
Q4-2012
Q2-2013$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
Eugene/Springfield Metro Av-erage Rent Per Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW
Q2-2008
Q4-2008
Q2-2009
Q4-2009
Q2-2010
Q4-2010
Q2-2011
Q4-2011
Q2-2012
Q4-2012
Q2-2013$0.50
$0.55
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
Bend/Redmond Metro Average Rent Per Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW Q2-2008
Q4-2008
Q2-2009
Q4-2009
Q2-2010
Q4-2010
Q2-2011
Q4-2011
Q2-2012
Q4-2012
Q2-2013$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
Portland/Vancouver Metro Av-erage Rent Per Square Foot
Average Rent Per Square Foot
Source: Multifamily NW
OregonPermit Data
Rapid Growth from a Low Base
Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-140
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000Oregon Housing Permits (Monthly, SA 3 MMA)
Total PermitsSingle Family
Halfway Back
Jan-72 Jan-77 Jan-82 Jan-87 Jan-92 Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-120
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Oregon Single Family Units
Permits1972-2006 Average
Multi-Family Construction Persists
Jan-72 Jan-77 Jan-82 Jan-87 Jan-92 Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-120
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Oregon Multi-Family Units
Permits1972-2006 Average
Permit Recovery Across the State
Columbia
Josephine
Klamath
Tillamook
Linn
Deschutes
Jackson
Douglas
Umatilla
Lake
Benton
Oregon
Baker
Clackamas
Harney
Morrow
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Housing Permits Relative to 2005
2012Depths of the Great Recession
Klamath
Josephine
Tillamook
Columbia
Harney
Yamhill
Deschutes
Douglas
Washington
Baker
Umatilla
Union
Oregon
Multnomah
Clackamas
Malheur
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Housing Permits Relative to 2005
2013Depths of the Great Recession
We Are Now Under-Building!
Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Oregon Single Family Housing Permits, SA 3MMA
May '10 - Jan '14 Moved Bubble Building
Bubble Building Single Family
32
For More Information
Standard Contact:
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com
@OR_EconAnalysis