Outline
1) Issue Context
2) Methods
3) Findings
4) Conclusions
5) Recommendations
May 26, 2015
“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”
Source:U.S.DroughtMonitor
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
May 26, 2015
“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”
May 22, 2017
Source:U.S.DroughtMonitor
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”
2015
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”
2015 2017
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Looking Ahead
Climate projections indicate that the Pacific Northwest will more
regularly experience warmer and wetter winters and warmer
summers. (Dalton, Mote, & Snover, 2013)
Nehalem River, Dec 2015 (Credit: Kristyna Wentz-Graff) Wickiup Reservoir, 2015 (Source: To The Wild) (Source: Oregon Daily Independent)
So what actually happened?
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Oregon Water Resources Department
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Research Question
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
What documented information exists
about the conditions and impacts experienced, as
well as the response strategies implemented, during
Oregon’s 2015 Drought?
Drought Impacts Reporting
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Drought Impacts Reporting
DroughtInsufficient water supply to meet the demands of human and
natural systems, due to warm or dry conditions, relative to
historic averages. (influenced by Bumbaco & Mote, 2010)
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Drought Impacts Reporting
Drought ImpactsThe effects of the drought conditions on
society, the environment, or the economy.
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Drought Impacts Reporting
Response StrategiesActions taken, or plans developed for future action, to help
mitigate or adapt to the impacts of drought.
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Drought Impacts Reporting
So what actually happened?
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Methods
Methods
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
1) Literature Review§ Challenges
§ Current status
§ Future potential
Methods
2. Analysis of Hydrometeorological Conditions§ Temperature
§ Precipitation
§ Snowpack
§ Streamflow
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Methods
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
3) Review and Summary of Documented Impacts and Responses§ Round I
§ databases
§ publicly available documents from reliable entities
§ websites from credible entities
§ government press releases
§ written media coverage
§ existing drought reporters*Verbal accounts not considered “documented”
Methods
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
3) Review and Summary of Documented Impacts and Responses§ Round I
§ databases
§ publicly available documents from reliable entities
§ websites from credible entities
§ government press releases
§ written media coverage
§ existing drought reporters*Verbal accounts not considered “documented”
§ Round II§ emails and phone calls to agencies, tribes, and service providers
Methods
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
1) Literature Review
2) Analysis of Hydrometeorological Conditions
3) Review and Summary of Documented Impacts and Responses
4) Interviews
Findings
Findings: Analysis of Conditions
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Conditions: Temperature and Precipitation
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies in Oregon (2015)
Water Year:Oct 1, 2014
through Sep 30, 2015
Baseline: 1896-2014Data Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
2002
1944
1977
1992
1994
2001
2005
2015
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Tem
pera
ture
(°F)
Precipitation (%)
October - March Warm & Dry Warm & Wet
Cold & Dry Cold & Wet
Warm & Dry Warm & Wet
Cold & Dry Cold & Wet
Conditions: Temperature and Precipitation
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies in Oregon (2015)
Water Year:Oct 1, 2014
through Sep 30, 2015
Baseline: 1896-2014Data Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
2002
1944
1977
1992
1994
2001
2005
2015
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Tem
pera
ture
(°F)
Precipitation (%)
October - March Warm & Dry Warm & Wet
Cold & Dry Cold & Wet
Warm & Dry Warm & Wet
Cold & Dry Cold & Wet
2002
1944
1977
1992
1994
2001
2005
2015
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Tem
pera
ture
(°F)
Precipitation (%)
April - SeptemberWarm & Dry Warm & Wet
Cold & Dry Cold & Wet
Conditions: Snowpack
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Data reflect the average SWE measurement taken from Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course measurements and SNOTEL sites (with a range of 33 to 59 total sites for each year). These data were provided by Dr. Philip Mote (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute).
Conditions: Streamflow & Reservoirs
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Monthly streamflow for June 2015 compared to historic averages. Source: “Drought Information Statement, July 17, 2015,” National Weather Service
Streamflow and Summer Water Supply Volumes (June 2015)
Conditions: Streamflow & Reservoirs
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Monthly streamflow for June 2015 compared to historic averages. Source: “Drought Information Statement, July 17, 2015,” National Weather Service
Streamflow and Summer Water Supply Volumes (June 2015)
Reservoirs:By September, Oregon’s total reservoir storage was at ~25% capacity compared to historic average of ~50%
Conditions: Streamflow & Reservoirs
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
The monthly average discharge at a station along Umatilla River during the 2015 water year compared to the historic average. There are no flow regulations or diversions upstream from this gauge. (USGS Site Number: 14020000)
Findings: Impacts and Responses
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Findings: Impacts and Responses
§Topical Sectors§ agriculture and ranching
§municipal
§ recreation
§ fish and wildlife
§ public health
§ tribal matters
§ business/industry
*groundwater
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Findings: Impacts & Response Strategies
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Impacts & Responses: Agriculture & Ranching
§ Shortened irrigation seasons§ Fewer or different crops§ Fallowed lands
§ Reduced yields
§ Early crop progression
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Source: Oregon Farm Link
§ Livestock stress§ Supplemental feed rations§ Early cattle shipments to feedlots
§ Increased fire risk§ Grant or loan programs
§ Earlier junior water right shutoffs and less allotment
§ Increased uncertainty
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Source: Family Cow
Impacts & Responses: Agriculture & Ranching
Impacts & Responses: Municipal
§ Less water supply§ Groundwater withdrawals§ Aquifer storage and recovery§ Delivered water from neighbors
§ High temperatures§ e.g., Portland, Salem,
Eugene, Medford, and Klamath Falls
§ Changes in demand§ Voluntary and enforceable
curtailment
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Source: McKinley Drilling
Impacts & Responses: Recreation
§ Ski Industry§ Less snow
§ Boating§ Boat launches§ Loss in revenue
§ Angling§ Fish die-offs§ Poor fishing conditions
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsHoward Prairie Lake, 2015 (Credit: Jes Burns)
Howard Prairie Lake (Source: Jackson County)
Impacts & Responses: Fish & Wildlife
§ Fish mortality§ Ecological restoration
§ Increased wildfire§ Forestry Department’s
large-fire costs:§ 2015: $76.7 million§ 10-yr average: $22.3 million
§ Tree die-off
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Credit: Gary Stewart
Findings: Impacts and Responses
§Topical Sectors§ agriculture and ranching
§municipal
§ recreation
§ fish and wildlife
§ public health
§ tribal matters
§ business/industry
*groundwater
Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Conclusions
Conclusions
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
1) Documented information on drought impacts is fragmented and sparse
2) Some regions and sectors are much more vulnerable to drought than others
3) Groundwater monitoring is very limited Mind the gap…
Recommendations
Recommendations
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Recommendation #1. Develop a strategic plan for drought impacts monitoring and reporting
Recommendations
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Recommendation #1. Develop a strategic plan for drought impacts monitoring and reporting
Recommendation #2. Conduct drought impact, risk, and vulnerability assessments on geographic and sectoral scales, and include local stakeholders
Recommendations
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Recommendation #1. Develop a strategic plan for drought impacts monitoring and reporting
Recommendation #2. Conduct drought impact, risk, and vulnerability assessments on geographic and sectoral scales, and include local stakeholders
Recommendation #3. Develop a long-term sustainable groundwater management plan with clear objectives and metrics
Acknowledgements
With deep gratitude to:Dr. Michael E. Campana | College of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Sciences
Dr. Erika Wolters | OSU Policy Analysis Laboratory
John Stevenson, M.S. | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute
Alyssa Mucken | Oregon Water Resources Department
Dr. Philip Mote | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute
Dr. Todd Jarvis | Institute for Water and Watersheds
Acknowledgements
With deep gratitude to:Dr. Michael E. Campana | College of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Sciences
Dr. Erika Wolters | OSU Policy Analysis Laboratory
John Stevenson, M.S. | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute
Alyssa Mucken | Oregon Water Resources Department
Dr. Philip Mote | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute
Dr. Todd Jarvis | Institute for Water and Watersheds
Sources§ Dalton, M., Mote, P., & Snover, A. (Eds.). (2013). Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for
Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. Island Press. Retrieved from http://occri.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/ClimateChangeInTheNorthwest.pdf
§ Bumbaco, K., & Mote, P. (2010). The Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49, 2058–2068. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2423.1
§ Wickiup Reservoir: http://www.tothewild.com/category/conservation/pacific-nw-drought/§ Wildlfire: http://orcattle.com/2015/08/18/wild-fire-assistance-and-donations-for-oregon-ranchers/§ Flood: http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/12/portland-
area_weather_drenchin.html§ Lit Review: https://www.trentu.ca/futurestudents/degree/english-literature§ Data: http://www.lifehack.org/articles/technology/10-common-spreadsheet-mistakes-youre-
probably-making.html§ Fallowed lands: http://oregonfarmlink.org/land-listing/leasepartnershipincubator-opportunity-up-
to-40-acres-in-creswell-or/§ Weaned calf: http://familycow.proboards.com/thread/58753/determining-weaning-age-beef-calves§ Howard Praire Lake 1: http://jacksoncountyor.org/parks/Camping/Howard-Prairie-Resort§ Howard Prairie Lake 2: http://www.opb.org/news/article/drought-conditions-are-sucking-the-fun-
out-of-northwest-reservoirs/§ Sockeye Salmon: https://thinkprogress.org/why-are-hundreds-of-thousands-of-salmon-dying-in-
the-northwest-211af28b83a2§ Mind the gap: http://www.coreypadveen.com/big-gap-big-data-applications/
Additional Slides
Recommendations
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
Recommendation #1. On a statewide level, determine: a) priorities and a preferred format for summarizing the effects of drought and response strategies; and b) methods for coordinating and minimizing duplicative efforts around collecting, documenting, sharing, and compiling relevant information (e.g., water supply conditions, effects on sectors and local economies, emergency grant and loan programs).
Recommendation #2. Secure funding and work in partnership to conduct drought risk, vulnerability, and impact assessments on geographic and sectoral scales. Consider incorporating interviews with water resource managers and users into this research.
Recommendation #3. Review and discuss the appropriateness and effectiveness of Oregon’s drought declaration process for counties, drought emergency tools, and water law stipulations that may help or inhibit drought management and response options.
Recommendation #4. Investigate how water conservation and storage efforts have impacted water consumption, and modify or develop policies, policy tools, and programs as appropriate.
Recommendation #5. Increase government capacity for groundwater monitoring and develop a long-term plan for sustainable groundwater management with clear objectives and metrics.
Findings: Conditions
This table shows which months were above, near, or below the historic average for temperature and precipitation during the 2015 water year. The cells highlighted in orange show for which months both the temperature was abnormally high and precipitation was abnormally low. Data are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/).
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies in Oregon Temperature Averages (°F) Precipitation Averages (inches) Historic 2015 WY Anomaly Historic 2015 WY Anomaly (% avg.) Oct 54.3 60.5 6.2 2.4 3.5 143.4 Nov 35.9 34.1 -1.8 4.6 4.1 91.0 Dec 31.9 32.4 0.5 4.9 6.2 125.9 Jan 30.7 38.1 7.4 4.6 2.0 42.7 Feb 34.3 41.7 7.4 3.7 3.6 96.8 March 38.5 45.7 7.2 3.5 2.6 74.4 April 44.7 45.6 0.9 2.4 1.6 63.8 May 50.6 53.5 2.9 2.1 2.2 101.9 June 57.3 65.6 8.3 1.5 0.4 28.3 July 65 67.5 2.5 0.5 0.8 155.1 August 67 69.9 2.9 0.6 0.4 62.3 September 57.4 58.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 68.6
Annual 46.6 50.7 4.1 32.08 28.12 87.7
Conditions: Snowpack
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
2015
1992
1963
1981
2005
2001 19411968
1977 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SWE(cm)
Rank(1=Lowest, 10=Highest)
TenYearsofLowestSnowpackinOregon(April1,1938-2015)
Data reflect the average SWE measurement taken from Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course measurements and SNOTEL sites (with a range of 33 to 59 total sites for each year). These data were provided by Dr. Philip Mote (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute).
Conditions: Streamflow
Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
AverageDischarge(CFS)
Month
NorthCentral:MarionCounty,LittleNorthSantiamRiver
2015 HistoricRecord(1932-2014)
The monthly average discharge at a station along Little North Santiam River during the 2015 water year compared to the historic average. There are no flow regulations or diversions upstream from this gauge. (USGS Site Number: 14182500)