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Grant King, Managing Director Karen Moses, Executive Director, Finance and Strategy May 2015 ORIGIN ENERGY INTERNATIONAL ROADSHOW
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Page 1: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Grant King, Managing Director Karen Moses, Executive Director, Finance and Strategy May 2015

ORIGIN ENERGY INTERNATIONAL ROADSHOW

Page 2: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Forward looking statements

This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and associated undertakings operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, regulatory environments, competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised.

None of Origin Energy Limited or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (the Relevant Persons) makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward looking statements in this report reflect views held only at the date of this report.

Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

Except as required by applicable law or the ASX Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.

No offer of securities

This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction.

2

Page 3: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

3

A regional leader in energy markets

A regionally significant position in natural gas and LNG production

A growing position in

renewable energy

Improving returns in energy markets

businesses

Delivering growth in natural

gas and LNG

Growing capabilities and increasing investment in renewables

Capital management and funding

Origin’s strategy of connecting resources to markets is pursued through a clear focus on its 3 businesses and 4 priorities designed to drive continued improvement in Origin’s performance

AT A GLANCE:

• Listed in S&P/ASX 20 index with a market capitalisation of A$14.3 billion1

• Over 6,9002 employees

• $5.2 billion3 of undrawn committed facilities and cash

• Investment grade credit ratings from S&P (BBB-, stable) Moody’s (Baa2, negative outlook)

(1) As at 7 May 2015 (2) As at 31 December 2014, excluding Contact Energy (3) As at 31 December 2014

Page 4: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin’s strategy of connecting resources to markets is pursued through its 3 businesses

RENEWABLE ENERGY

ENERGY MARKETS

CONTACT ENERGY

• Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share3

• 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts • 6,010 MW generation capacity

• 53.1% of one of New Zealand’s leading integrated energy company • 22% of electricity and gas NEM market share4

• 562,000 electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts • 2,359 MW generation capacity

A$1,053m

FY20 14 EBITDA1

A$9,849m

FY2014 Net Assets1,2

INTEGRATED GAS • 1,189 PJe of conventional 2P gas, condensate, crude oil & LPG reserves • FY2014 production 96 PJe • 37.5% shareholding in APLNG

• 8.6 mtpa contracted for approximately 20 years • 17,459 PJe of 3P reserves5 (100% of APLNG) • FY2014 production 123 PJe

A REGIONAL LEADER IN ENERGY MARKETS

REGIONALLY SIGNIFICANT POSITION IN NATURAL GAS AND LNG PRODUCTION

GROWING POSITION IN RENEWABLE ENERGY

(1) Excludes the Corporate segment which reflects the costs of corporate and development activities. (2) Assets less segment liabilities, excludes “Other financial liabilities, interest-bearing liabilities and funding related derivatives and tax liabilities”. (3) Based on Origin customer accounts as at 30 June 2014 and total market data as of 30 June 2013 (4) Contact Energy estimates based on data as at 30 June 2014 from the Electricity Authority New Zealand & the Gas Registry New Zealand (5) Refer to Important Information in the Appendix. 1P Reserves are 4,581 PJe, 2P Reserves are 14,091 PJe.

A$533m

A$487m

A$83m

A$5,743m

A$2,872m

A$6,963m

4

• Across Australia, Chile, Indonesia and New Zealand • Focus on solar, geothermal and hydro

Page 5: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Within the 3 businesses Origin is focused on delivering 4 key priorities

• Build customer loyalty and trust to mitigate market competition

• Capture value of a strong gas position in a rising domestic gas market

• Maintain a competitive portfolio cost of electricity

• Sustained LNG production from Train 1 from Q2 FY2016 and from Train 2 approximately 6 months later

• Prioritise capital investments to projects that increase production into growing gas demand in Australia

• Focus on solar, geothermal and hydro

• Maintain adequate liquidity to fund APLNG

• Increase distributions to shareholders

• Maintain an investment grade credit rating

• Limit investments in gas and renewables to high returning projects

5

IMPROVING RETURNS IN ENERGY MARKETS BUSINESSES

DELIVERING GROWTH IN NATURAL GAS AND LNG

GROWING CAPABILITIES AND INCREASE INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLES

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT AND FUNDING

1

2

3

4

Page 6: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

1. Improving Improving returns in energy markets businesses

6

Page 7: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin is now leveraging its investment in Retail Transformation by introducing new products, services and digital capability to provide customers with the products and services they want

Building customer loyalty and trust is the most powerful mitigant to the impacts of a highly competitive market

7

Digital Transformation

5% improvement in on time payment

behaviour

34 point improvement in Net Promoter Score for new connections

Customer Communication

Page 8: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

14% 10% 7%

86% 90% 93%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

H1 FY2014 H2 FY2014 9 months to 31 Mar 2015

Internal External

40%30% 29%

60%70% 71%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

H1 FY2014 H2 FY2014 9 months to 31 Mar 2015

Retains Wins

8

Implementation of new technology has improved communication with customers, allowing greater focus on retention activities through use of internal channels, resulting in improved service to customers and cost to serve benefits

183k 961k

157k 883k

390k 676k

9.0 4.9

1.1 1.6

Jun 13 Mar 15 Customers registered on My Account Customers taking up eBilling Customers choosing Direct Debit Ombudsman complaints (per 1,000 customers) Calls per customer

Sales Channels Customer Wins and Retains Operational Metrics

Page 9: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Jul-1

3A

ug-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-1

3N

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3D

ec-1

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n-14

Feb-

14M

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ay-1

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Jul-1

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Feb-

15M

ar-1

5

QLD

SANSW

VIC

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jul-1

3A

ug-1

3S

ep-1

3O

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3N

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Feb-

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Jul-1

4A

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4S

ep-1

4O

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4N

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4D

ec-1

4Ja

n-15

Feb-

15M

ar-1

5

Origin Churn Market Churn

The retail environment remains challenging with elevated levels of discounting

Origin has not been leading the market but will meet the market on discount offers

9

Electricity and Natural Gas Churn Rates

Value of Origin’s incumbency position continues to be evident in churn lower than the market

Origin’s Average Signed Discount Offers for Electricity and Natural Gas (%)

Origin’s discount offers are focused on value based customer retention, and wins activity is

centred around dual fuel offers

Page 10: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin has a competitive cost of gas through its diverse and flexible gas portfolio and continues to capture benefits of rising gas prices, near term ramp gas opportunities, increasing sales volumes and market share ...

10

Continued rising domestic gas prices and cost of gas benefit from legacy portfolio

Short term ramp gas benefit

Commencement of sales to other LNG projects

• QGC - Up to 30 PJ in calendar 2014 & 2015

• GLNG – 365 PJ over 10 years from 2015

• GLNG – up to 194 PJ over 5 years from 2016

Ability to call back gas during periods of high electricity prices to run its gas generation

... while continuing to provide support to its flexible generation portfolio

0

100

200

300

400

FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016+

$ m

illion

1H Financial Year 2H Financial Year

Natural Gas Gross Margin

Page 11: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

11

Increased pool prices in Queensland are driven by increased volatility and intermittency of wind generation is creating price volatility in South Australia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

H2 FY13 H1 FY14 H2 FY14 H1 FY15

Ave

rage

NE

M P

ool P

rice

($/M

Wh) Average Prices <$300/MWh

Average Prices >$300/MWhEstimated carbon cost

Average 6 monthly Queensland Pool Prices Price Volatility and Wind Generation in South Australia

Origin has a competitive cost of electricity through its flexible generation portfolio with a short position to the pool

(1) Equates to $30/GJ assuming a heat rate of 10GJ/MWh

1

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

14/0

1 11

:20

14/0

1 14

:20

14/0

1 17

:20

14/0

1 20

:20

14/0

1 23

:20

15/0

1 2:

2015

/01

5:20

15/0

1 8:

2015

/01

11:2

015

/01

14:2

015

/01

17:2

015

/01

20:2

015

/01

23:2

016

/01

2:20

16/0

1 5:

2016

/01

8:20

16/0

1 11

:20

16/0

1 14

:20

16/0

1 17

:20

16/0

1 20

:20

16/0

1 23

:20

SA Interm

iitent Genration (M

W)S

A D

ispa

tch

Pric

e ($

/MW

h)

South Australian Wind (RHS) South Australian Spot Price (LHS)

Page 12: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

0:00

2:00

4:00

6:00

8:00

10:0

012

:00

14:0

016

:00

18:0

020

:00

22:0

0

MW

Time of Day

Minimum GenerationScheduled Generation CapacityNet Demand (3.5 GW of Solar PV)Net Demand (9.5 GW of Solar PV)

12 (1) Currently under review but assumed to be 33 TWh (2) Demand data from AEMO. Supply data based on Origin modelling. Renewable build based on a 33 TWh target.

Marginal price of generation remains relatively constant

Increases in renewables to achieve a 2020 renewable energy target1 will extend the supply curve and limit increases in wholesale prices ...

... while an increase in solar will lower demand for baseload energy during the day and increase volatility in afternoon and evening peaks

14 TWh of additional renewables push out

the supply curve

Increase in renewable to 2020

Limited increase in net demand of around 8 TWh

NEM Supply Bidstack - 2015 vs 20202 Impacts of Solar Generation on an High Solar Day

Page 13: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Retail

Business

Coal

Gas

Pool or Contract Market

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Demand Supply

Ene

rgy

(TW

h)

13

Change in NEM Load Duration Curve

As more renewables are installed there is a

reduced energy requirement from traditional non-

intermittent generation

1% 100%

Origin’s Generation Flexibility

Origin believes it will maintain a competitive cost of electricity through its flexible generation portfolio with a short position to the pool

These trends will “hollow out” the load duration curve, lowering prices for baseload generation and increasing volatility and peak prices

Peak Electricity

Retail Demand

Baseload

Intermediate

Peaking

Hedge Contracts

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Peak Demand Supply

Cap

acity

(MW

)

Energy Capacity

(1) Eraring operated at a 45% capacity factor in FY2014

Origin has the flexibility to run: • Coal generation – base, intermediate • Gas generation – base, intermediate, peaking • Peaking distillate generation

• Peaking distillate generation • Pumped-storage hydro generation • Purchase from the market

1

Page 14: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

1. Improving Delivering growth in Natural Gas and LNG

14

Page 15: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin has recombined our Exploration & Production and LNG businesses to integrate all our activities along the gas value chain

15 SELL

FIND ACQUIRE DEVELOP OPERATE SELL

Browse & Bonaparte Basins • Offshore discoveries • Targeting new resources

Perth Basins • Gas and condensate

production • Senecio & Waitsia

discoveries

Otway • Gas, condensate and LPG

production • Halladale and Speculant

field development

Cooper Basin • Gas, oil, condensate

and LPG production • Building an

unconventional portfolio

BassGas • Gas, condensate and LPG

production • Drilling of Yolla 5 & 6

production wells

Beetaloo Basin • Origin’s first shale play

APLNG (Downstream) • 2-3 ships for loading

per week

APLNG (Upstream) • Gas: 1,700 TJ/ day • 530 km pipeline • 2,600 km field delivery pipeline • 13 gas processing facilities • 4 water treatment facilities • > 1,000 wells

New Zealand Kupe • Gas, condensate and LPG

production Canterbury Basin • Exploration to prove resource

Ironbark • Progressing

towards a development

Page 16: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

PJe

Origin’s reserves are almost entirely gas, exposed to export gas prices

(1) Average calendar year spot prices across VIC, NSW, SA and QLD. All prices are to 31 December 2014. (2) EnergyQuest EnergyQuarterly November 2014 Report. Short-run LNG netback at Wallumbilla, based on 14.5% slope and 0.78 AUD/USD exchange rate. (3) The majority of oil and condensate production from FY2016 to FY2021 will reflect a fixed oil price of US$62.40/bbl

Origin Reserves

2P APLNG (37.5%)2P Gas2P Liquids

Once all the east coast LNG projects have secured all of their feed gas, domestic gas prices will likely be driven by

production costs of new developments

-2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

10.00 12.00 14.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 US$ 60/bbl

US$ 70/bbl

US$ 80/bbl

US$ 90/bbl

Domestic Spot Prices EnergyQuest ForecastLNG Netback Prices

A$/

GJ

Australian domestic gas prices are moving towards export parity

1 2

Even at low oil prices domestic gas prices will increase from historical levels increasing returns on Origin’s gas reserves

2014 prices unusually low due

to ramp gas in QLD

16

3

Page 17: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

17

APLNG’s UPSTREAM PROJECT IS 93% COMPLETE

APLNG’s DOWNSTREAM PROJECT IS 89% COMPLETE

Sustained production from Train 1 expected in Q2 FY2016 and from Train 2 approximately 6 months later

Page 18: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

18

Brent Forward and Spot Curves (A$/bbl)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

FY17 Spot

FID 1 FID 2

At A$100/bbl oil, Origin expects its share of distributable cash flow from APLNG to be around A$900 million per annum on average from FY2017

APLNG will have free cash flow available for distribution to shareholders at approximately A$55/bbl oil1

Every A$10/bbl movement results in approximately A$200 million change in

expected distributable cash flow from APLNG to Origin

(1) This includes all business as usual operating and capital costs, as well as amortisation and interest on project finance

Page 19: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin is prioritising capital spend on upstream projects with the highest returns and shortest payback periods

Ensign 931 rig • Speculant-1 exploration well

discovered commercial quantities of gas

• Halladale-2 development well completed on 23 April 2015

• Speculant-2 appraisal well spudded on 28 April 2015

• Origin 100% operated

• Senecio-3 exploration well

discovered potentially commercial quantities of gas in the primary target, and deeper secondary targets (Origin 50%, non-operated)

• Irwin-1 exploration well spudded on 25 March 2015 2015, elevated gas shows have been observed (Origin 67%, operated)

Sapura 3000 heavy lift vessel with Compressor Module suspended • Successful lift of condensate

and compressor modules onto Yolla platform

• Yolla 5 production well spudded on 14 March 2015, with both Yolla 5 & 6 wells expected to be online during CY2015

• Origin 42.5% operated

19

BASS BASIN OTWAY BASIN PERTH BASIN

Page 20: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

1. Improving Growing capabilities and increasing investment in renewables

20

Page 21: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Javiera Solar Project Northern Chile

Sorik Marapi, Indonesia

Sorik Marapi, Indonesia

Cuervo Dam, Chile

21

Origin will continue to secure opportunities in utility scale renewables where it is economic to do so

Page 22: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

1. Improving Capital management and funding

22

Page 23: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

23

• Maintaining sufficient funding capacity to meet committed capital and funding requirements LIQUIDITY

SERVICEABILITY

FLEXIBILITY

• Ability to service debt irrespective of oil prices

• Ability to take advantage of opportunities to improve returns to shareholders

As the APLNG project progresses to completion, capital management remains a focus ...

... and while liquidity and serviceability are well in hand, it is flexibility that is challenged in a period of sustained low oil price

Page 24: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin has more than sufficient liquidity to fund its expected remaining contributions to APLNG with maturities extending beyond FY2018

24

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY20

15

FY20

16

FY20

17

FY20

18

FY20

19

FY20

20

FY20

21

FY20

22

FY20

23

FY20

24

FY20

25+

A$

milli

on

Loans & Bank Guarantees - UndrawnLoans & Bank Guarantees - DrawnCapital Markets Debt and Hybrids

Origin Debt & Bank Guarantee Maturity Profile as at 31 December 20141

(1) Excludes Contact Energy.

• Standard & Poor’s revised its credit rating for Origin from BBB (negative outlook) to BBB- (stable) on 22 April 2015

• Moody’s have reaffirmed its credit rating as Baa2 (negative outlook)

Page 25: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

12 months to Dec 2012

12 months to Dec 2013

12 months to Dec 2014

12 months to Dec 2014

$ m

illio

n

Cash Flow from OperationsSIB CapexInterest paidDividends paid

Cash flow from existing businesses has been more than sufficient to service all interest payments, stay-in-business capex and dividends

25

Cash Flow Sources and Uses (ex Growth Capex)

At oil prices above A$55/bbl, every A$10/bbl movement in oil results in approximately A$200 million change in expected distributable cash flow from APLNG to Origin

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

FY17 Spot

FID 1 FID 2

Brent Forward and Spot Curves (A$/bbl)

Page 26: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

In a sustained period of low oil price Origin has less flexibility to improve returns to shareholders ...

No equity raising to fund APLNG

Maintain dividend policy of the greater of 50c per share or 60% of Underlying NPAT

Maintain an investment grade credit rating

Maintain stay-in-business capex to ensure competitiveness of the business

Develop upstream projects with the highest returns and shortest payback periods

Commitments

26

... and will continue to take action to meet its commitments and preserve its flexibility to reduce gearing, increase dividends and fund growth

Loss of Flexibility Actions

Reduce capital and operating costs

Realign debt across group entities

Divest assets

Ability to increase dividends above the current dividend policy

Ability to de-lever more quickly

Ability to take advantage of growth opportunities as they present themselves

Page 27: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

27

A regional leader in energy markets

A regionally significant position in natural gas and LNG production

A growing position in

renewable energy

Improving returns in energy markets

businesses

Delivering growth in natural

gas and LNG

Growing capabilities and increasing investment in renewables

Capital management and funding

TRIFR for our safety

Total Shareholder Return for financial

performance

Net Promoter Score for our customers’ advocacy

Engagement survey for people

at Origin

RepTrak for community reputation

Origin’s strategy of connecting resources to markets is pursued through its 3 businesses, 4 priorities and 5 measures that drive continued improvement in Origin’s performance

Page 28: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Appendix

28

Page 29: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

2014 Full Year Financial Highlights

($ million) FY2014 FY2013 Change

Statutory Profit 530 378 152

Statutory EPS 48.1 cps 34.6 cps 13.5

Revenue 14,518 14,747 (229)

Underlying EBITDA 2,139 2,181 (42)

Underlying EBIT 1,353 1,438 (85)

Underlying net financing cost (192) (255) 63

Underlying income tax expense (342) (339) (3)

Underlying Profit 713 760 (47)

Underlying EPS 64.8 cps 69.5 cps (4.7)

Group OCAT 2,041 1,142 899

Free Cash Flow 1,599 1,188 411

Capital Expenditure1 1,012 1,172 (160)

Origin’s Cash Contributions to APLNG2 2,821 561 (2,260)

Origin Undrawn Committed Debt Facilities and Cash3 5,129 5,251 (122)

(1) Based on cash flow amounts rather than accrual accounting amounts; includes growth and stay-in-business capital expenditure, capitalised interest and acquisitions. (2) Made via both loan repayments to APLNG and the issue of mandatorily redeemable cumulative preference shares by APLNG. (3) Excluding Contact Energy and bank guarantees. 29 |

Page 30: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

2015 Half Year Financial Highlights

($ million) HY2015 HY2014 Change

Statutory (Loss) / Profit (25) 322 (347)

Statutory EPS (2.3 cps) 29.3 cps (31.6 cps)

Revenue 6,950 7,238 (288)

Underlying EBITDA 1,080 1,082 (2)

Underlying EBIT 659 694 (35)

Underlying net financing cost (105) (108) 3

Underlying income tax expense (171) (161) (10)

Underlying Profit1 346 381 (35)

Underlying EPS 31.3 cps 34.6 cps (3.3 cps)

Group OCAT 905 1,038 (133)

Free Cash Flow 707 793 (86)

Capital Expenditure1 1,248 460 788

Origin’s Cash Contributions to APLNG2 1,412 1,437 (25)

Origin Undrawn Committed Debt Facilities and Cash3 5,172 6,544 (1,372)

(1) Based on cash flow amounts rather than accrual accounting amounts; includes growth and stay-in-business capital expenditure, capitalised interest and acquisitions. (2) Via the issue of Mandatorily Redeemable Cumulative Preference Shares by APLNG to Origin in the current period and via loan repayments by Origin to APLNG in the prior

corresponding period. (3) Excluding Contact Energy and bank guarantees.

30 |

Page 31: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

External Volumes Sold (PJ) HY2015 HY2014 Change

Retail (Consumer & SME) 22.5 22.4 0.1

Business 47.5 34.4 13.1

Total 69.9 56.8 13.1

Natural Gas Performance ($/GJ) HY2015 HY20142 Change

Retail (Consumer & SME) Revenue 22.9 20.1 2.8

Business Revenue1 6.6 6.8 (0.2)

Combined Revenue 11.9 12.0 (0.2)

Network Costs (4.7) (5.4) 0.7

Energy Procurement Costs1 (4.1) (4.0) (0.1)

Total Cost of Goods Sold (8.7) (9.4) 0.6

Gross Profit 3.1 2.7 0.4

Gross Profit Per Customer ($) 209 150 59

Natural Gas Unit Gross Profit up 15% ($0.40/GJ) as tariffs increase in line with rising East Coast market prices while underlying energy procurement costs remain flat

Unit Gross Profit up 15%

Gross Profit increased by $59/customer, with $29 attributed to expansion of Retail margin and $30 from higher Business volumes

Gross Profit per Customer up 40%

Business sales volumes up 13PJ

Flat cost of energy

Retail tariff increases in line with market movements

(1) Business Revenue and Energy Procurement Costs for the period ended 31 December 2013 have been restated to remove pass through TUOS charges to customers at no margin. These revenues are netted off with the associated cost in Natural Gas cost of goods sold.

(2) Prior corresponding period restated to exclude impact of carbon for comparative purposes. 31 |

Page 32: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Volumes Sold (TWh) HY2015 HY2014 Change

Retail (Consumer & SME) 9.1 9.1 (0.0)

Business 9.6 10.4 (0.8)

Total 18.7 19.5 (0.8)

Electricity Performance ($/MWh) HY2015 HY20141 Change

Retail (Consumer & SME) Revenue 270.1 256.4 13.7

Business Revenue 118.0 120.6 (2.6)

Combined Revenue 193.2 185.4 7.8

Network costs (99.2) (93.0) (6.1)

Wholesale energy portfolio costs (51.8) (54.1) 2.4

Generation operating costs (5.8) (5.9) 0.1

Energy procurement costs (57.5) (60.0) 2.5

Total Cost of Goods Sold (156.7) (153.0) (3.7)

Gross Profit 36.5 32.4 4.1

Gross profit per customer ($) 240 217 23

Electricity Gross Profit up 13% ($4.10/MWh) primarily due to higher retail tariffs and stable black energy procurement costs

Unit Gross Profit up 13%

Gross Profit per customer up 11%

Black energy procurement costs stable, with a reduction in pass through green costs

(1) Prior corresponding period restated to exclude impact of carbon for comparative purposes. 32 |

Impact of discounts as a percentage of Retail revenue stable at 3.6%

QLD and SA increase in network costs

Page 33: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin29%

Others

Origin’s integrated Energy Markets business continues to be Australia’s leading provider of energy products

Leading retail customer base

• 2,816,000 Electricity customer accounts

• 1,064,000 Natural Gas customer accounts

• 382,000 LPG customer accounts

• Diverse portfolio of customer energy solutions

Flexible generation portfolio

• 6,010 MW

• Operationally-diverse

• Geographically-diverse

• Fuel-diverse

• 12%1 of NEM scheduled market generation capacity

Flexible and diverse fuel portfolio

• Strong domestic gas supply business

• Flexible gas transport arrangements

• Diverse and coal and gas position

(1) AEMO data as at May 2014, updated for AGL’s acquisition of Macquarie Generation. (2) Based on Origin customer accounts as at 31 December 2014 and total market data as of 30 June 2014.

NEM Market Share of Electricity and Natural Gas customer accounts2

AGL

Origin

EA

Snowy

Stanwell

IP GDF

TasHydro

Delta

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Calendar Year

Ironbark (new equity gas) Other purchasesAPLNG purchases Origin's existing equity gas

PJ/a

Other Tier 1’s

Fuel Generator Retailer

Upstream Fuel Generation Wholesale/Retail

33

Page 34: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

27%

23%

19%

17%

6%

6%

2%

Meridian

Contact Energy

Genesis

MRP

TrustPower

Other

Todd Energy

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Contact operates a similar integrated business model to Origin however Contact’s primary fuels are renewables which are not subsidised by government regulation

Leading retail customer base in NZ

• 562,000 electricity, natural gas and

LPG customer accounts • Diverse portfolio of customer energy

solutions

Flexible generation portfolio

• 2,359 MW • Fuel-diverse: 45% hydro, 31%

geothermal, 24% thermal (HY2015) • Generates 23% of NZ total annual

generation output (FY2014)

Flexible and diverse fuel portfolio

• Hydro and geothermal generation

assets supported by thermal fuels • Purchases natural gas mainly for

electricity generation to supply retail customers

• Underground gas storage facility

Market Share of NZ Electricity and Natural Gas customer accounts2

Te Mihi Geothermal Power Station

NZ Generation capacity1

Contact Energy

22%

(1) Electricity Authority New Zealand, 30 June 2014. (2) Contact Energy estimates based on data as at 30 June 2014 from the Electricity Authority New Zealand & the Gas Registry New Zealand

34 |

Fuel Generator Retailer

Upstream Fuel Generation Wholesale/Retail

Page 35: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

35 |

(1) Refer to Important Information in the Appendix. (2) Represents ramp and tail gas for two trains, volume will vary depending on operation strategy. (3) Refer to Important Information in the Appendix. 1P Reserves are 4,581 PJe, 2P Reserves are 14,091 PJe.

APLNG tenure in the Surat and Bowen basins at 30 April 2014

APLNG’s reserves base includes prime acreage in both known and industry accepted “sweet spots” in Queensland

100% APLNG Reserves and Resources1

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Train 1

Origin Contract

1P

Ramp and Tail Gas Train 2

3P

2P

QCLNG GSA

Domestic Gas

Estimated Requirements

2

PJ

APLNG 3P reserves up 8% to 17,459 PJe3 while 2P reserves remain sufficient to cover gas requirements for all domestic and LNG contracts

Page 36: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Typical Phase 1 Well Forecast

• Typical phase 1 well forecast to

have: – peak gas rate 1-2 TJ/d – peak water rate 500-1000

bbl/d – approx 50-70% of well’s

reserves produced within first 5 years

– average well life is 30 years

Pro

duct

ion

Rat

e

Gas

Dewatering Stage

Water

Stable Production Stage Decline Stage

Time

36 |

Source data • Dewatering Stage

• Gas and Water: Spring Gully (Phase 1) and Condabri • Water data only: Combabula/Reedy Creek and Orana

• Stable Production Stage: • Gas and Water: Spring Gully (pre-LNG) and Talinga

Page 37: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

APLNG economics remain robust in current oil price environment

Consistent with prior guidance, APLNG’s underlying economics are based on the following assumptions on project cash costs during steady state operations:

• Volumes • 8.6 mtpa contracted at JCC linked prices – around 470 PJ pa of sales gas • QGC sales – around 25 PJ pa on average • Domestic contracts – around 120 PJ

• Opex • Upstream operating expenditure (operated and non-operated, includes pipeline, electricity purchases and

royalties) of around A$1.2 billion per annum on average • Downstream liquefaction costs

• Sustain Capex • Around 300 operated wells drilled per year in near term at A$3 million per connected well • APLNG’s share of around 300 non-operated wells per year • Further gas processing facilities post LNG production; operated and non-operated • Non-operated permit equity share between 20%-40% • Around A$1.2-1.4 billion per annum on average

• Exploration Capex - spend assumed in early years, but is discretionary • Project Finance - US$8.5b facilities with 16-17 year terms from May 2012, repayments expected to start in FY2017 • Income tax - not expected to be paid by APLNG in early years. At lower oil prices this period is prolonged

37

APLNG will have free cash flow available for distribution to shareholders at approximately A$55/bbl oil1

(1) Includes all business as usual operating and capital costs, as well as amortisation and interest on project finance

Page 38: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

APLNG capital expenditure for the period was $3.9 billion, with Origin’s cash contribution $1.4 billion

(1) APLNG capital expenditure (100%) derived from APLNG’s Financial Statements; on an accruals basis. (2) Includes an unfavourable foreign exchange translation impact of A$339 million relative to project cost estimates announced in February 2013, which were based on 31 December

2012 exchange rates. (3) As announced in February 2013, based on December 2012 exchange rates . (4) Via the issue of Mandatorily Redeemable Cumulative Preference Shares by APLNG to Origin in the current period and via loan repayments by Origin to APLNG in prior periods.

38 |

Estimated costs to complete are not expected to be materially different from budget3

Domestic costs will gradually be reflected in Sustain costs as operations commence

(A$m) 6 months to 31 Dec 2014

Cumulative from FID1 to 31

Dec 2014

Project Capex 2,8021 23,8062

Non-Project Capex:

Capitalised O&M 386

Domestic 369

Exploration 80

Sustain 240

Total APLNG Capex 3,877

Origin cash contribution 1,412 5,9614

Operating costs will continue to rise and be capitalised until project completion

Origin has provided steady state guidance for Sustain capex (see slide 58)

In the current low oil price environment, APLNG is actively reviewing opportunities to defer sustain and exploration spend over the next few years

Page 39: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

Origin will lower capex spend relative to prior plans, limiting investments to higher returning projects

39 |

Growth Capital Expenditure by Segment and Origin’s Cash Contribution to APLNG1,2

(1) Forward looking numbers are based on management’s estimates of expenditure (committed and highly likely to proceed). All numbers exclude capitalised interest. (2) Forward looking APLNG numbers represent Origin’s expected cash contributions, rather than Origin’s share of total APLNG capital expenditure; based on Origin’s shareholding in

APLNG of 37.5%.

Origin’s remaining contribution to APLNG from January 2015 until APLNG becomes self-funding is estimated to be approximately $2 billion2

• E&P capex focused on increasing gas production into growing Australian gas demand, predominantly in Cooper, Otway and Bass basins

• Origin will further constrain spend on international solar, geothermal and hydro opportunities

• Origin’s expected contribution to APLNG for the balance of FY2015 is approximately $1.2 billion2

• As the LNG project progresses to completion, estimates of Origin’s remaining cash contribution will become more dependent on commencement of first LNG shipment from Train 1 and 2, price of LNG, gas volumes sold to third parties during ramp up and level of discretionary spend on exploration, appraisal and sustain phase activities

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

$ m

illio

n

Energy Markets ContactCorporate E&PPoseidon Acquisition APLNG

Page 40: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

A reference to Contact Energy is a reference to Origin’s controlled entity (53.1% ownership) Contact Energy Limited in New Zealand. In accordance with Australian Accounting Standards, Origin consolidates Contact Energy within its result.

A reference to Australia Pacific LNG or APLNG is a reference to Australia Pacific LNG Pty Limited in which Origin holds a 37.5% shareholding. Origin’s shareholding in Australia Pacific LNG is equity accounted. A reference to $ is a reference to Australian dollars unless specifically marked otherwise. All references to debt are a reference to interest bearing debt only (excludes Australia Pacific LNG shareholder loans). Individual items and totals are rounded to the nearest appropriate number or decimal. Some totals may not add down the page due to rounding of individual components.

When calculating a percentage change, a positive or negative percentage change denotes the mathematical movement in the underlying metric, rather than a positive or a detrimental impact.

Measures for which the numbers change from negative to positive, or vice versa, are labelled as not applicable. Origin and APLNG’s reserves and resources are as at 30 June 2014. These reserves and resources were announced on 31 July 2014 in Origin’s Annual Reserves Report for the year ended 30 June 2014 (Annual Reserves Report). Origin confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the Annual Reserves Report and that all the material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the Annual Reserves Report continue to apply and have not materially changed. Petroleum reserves and contingent resources are typically prepared by deterministic methods with support from probabilistic methods. Petroleum reserves and contingent resources are aggregated by arithmetic summation by category and as a result, proved reserves (1P reserves) may be a conservative estimate due to the portfolio effects of the arithmetic summation. Proved plus probable plus possible (3P reserves) may be an optimistic estimate due to the same aforementioned reasons. Some of Australia Pacific LNG CSG reserves and resources are subject to reversionary rights to transfer back to Tri-Star a 45% interest in Australia Pacific LNG’s share of those CSG interests that were acquired from Tri-Star in 2002 if certain conditions are met. Approximately 22% of Australia Pacific LNG’s 3P CSG reserves as of 30 June 2014 are subject to the reversionary rights. If reversion occurs this may mean that the uncommitted reserves that are subject to reversion are not available for Australia Pacific LNG to sell or use after the date of reversion. Origin has assessed the potential impact of reversionary rights associated with such interests based on economic tests consistent with these reserves and resources and based on that assessment does not consider that reversion will impact the reserves and resources quoted in the Annual Reserves Report. In October 2014, Tri-Star commenced proceedings against Australia Pacific LNG claiming that reversion has occurred. Australia Pacific LNG intends to defend the claim.

Important Information

40

Page 41: ORIGIN ENERGY...Australia’s leading integrated energy retailer • 29% of electricity and gas NEM market share 3 • 4.3 million electricity, natural gas and LPG customer accounts

THANK YOU

41

For more information Chau Le Group Manager, Investor Relations Email: [email protected] Office: +61 2 9375 5816 Mobile: + 61 467 799 642 www.originenergy.com.au


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