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LAST UPDATED: September 2020 ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW
LAST UPDATED: September 2020
ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW
orlando.org
Orlando MSA Market Overview
• Labor Market
• Payroll Employment
• Commercial Real Estate
• Residential Real Estate
• Consumer Spending
• Visitor Industry
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Labor Force, Orlando MSASeasonally Adjusted
Employed Labor Force
orlando.org
Labor Market
August 2020 (12-Month Change) Labor Force: 1,345,372 (-127,999)
Employed: 1,197,499 (-19,534) Unemployed: 147,873 (+108,465)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS Seasonally Adjusted
orlando.org
Labor Market
RECESSION
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Unemployment Rate, Orlando MSASeasonally Adjusted
Orlando MSA United States
August 2020United States: 8.4%
Orlando MSA: 11.0%
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSA12-Month Moving Average
RECESSION
orlando.org
Labor Market
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
2020 YTD (through August) 200,985 (+180,707 year-over-year)
30
32
34
36
38
40
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average Weekly Hours & Earnings, Orlando MSA12-Month Moving Average
12 MMA Weekly Earnings (left axis) 12 MMA Weekly Hours (right axis)
orlando.org
Labor Market
August 2020 (NSA, 12-Month Change)Hours: 35.1 (0.0%)
Earnings: $947.70 (5.4%)
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HundredsTotal, Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Orlando MSA
Not Seasonally Adjusted
orlando.org
Payroll Employment
RECESSION
Nov ’07 – Jan ’10103,700 jobs lost
August 2020 (12-Month Change)1,209,800 (-120,200)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb ’20 - Present138,200 jobs lost
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Orlando MSAY/Y % Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Orlando MSA United States
orlando.org
Payroll Employment
August 2020 NSAUnited States: -6.8%Orlando MSA: -9.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
RECESSION
orlando.org
Payroll Employment – Top 10% Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million Jobs
August 2019 – August 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Top 10 Rank MSA % Change
1 Austin, TX -2.67%
2 Indianapolis, IN -2.84%
3 Phoenix, AZ -3.55%
4 Dallas, TX -3.69%
5 Kansas City, MO-KS -4.22%
6 Tampa, FL -4.27%
7 San Antonio, TX -4.34%
8 Atlanta, GA -4.43%
9 Denver, CO -4.60%
10 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN -5.51%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
orlando.org
Payroll Employment – Bottom 10% Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million Jobs
August 2019 – August 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Bottom 10 Rank MSA % Change
1 Las Vegas, NV -12.21%
2 New York, NY-NJ-PA -11.95%
3 San Francisco, CA -11.29%
4 Cleveland, OH -10.97%
5 Detroit, MI -10.69%
6 Boston, MA-NH -10.61%
7 Los Angeles, CA -10.19%
8 Orlando, FL -9.04%
9 San Diego, CA -9.01%
10 Sacramento, CA -8.60%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
56.050.9
40.0
12.0
-51.9 -51.0
12.219.3
31.937.9
42.9
58.8
45.5 42.2 41.849.5
-129.9
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Net Job Gain, Orlando MSANot Seasonally Adjusted
orlando.org
Payroll Employment
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
-0.4-1.6
-0.6-3.7 -2.0 -2.8
-6.5-10.2
-1.8 -3.4
-88.6
-0.8% -1.2% -1.6% -2.3% -2.5% -3.2%-4.3% -4.3%
-7.1% -7.6%
-32.1%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
-100.0
-90.0
-80.0
-70.0
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
Mfg. Total Gov. WholesaleTrade
Education &Health
Finance Const. Retail Business Svcs. Information Other Svcs. Liesure &Hosp.
Job Gains by Industry, Orlando MSA12 Month Change Aug. 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Net Job Gain (left axis) Y/Y % Change (right axis)
TOTAL NET GAIN: -120.2 Thousand
orlando.org
Payroll EmploymentThousands
Miami Tampa
ORLANDO
Jacksonville
Lakeland
Space Coast
Tallahassee
Deltona
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-12% -11% -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
3-Month % Change
Year-Over-Year % Change
Employment Momentum by Florida MSA/MDAugust 2020, Seasonally Adjusted
orlando.org
Payroll Employment
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bubble Size = Total Employment
IMPROVING
CONTRACTING SLIPPING
EXPANDING
orlando.org
Commercial Real Estate
Source: CoStar; only includes existing office properties larger than 5,000 sq. ft.
$15
$17
$19
$21
$23
$25
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Office MarketOrlando MSA
Total Vacancy (left axis) Average Direct Asking Rate (FSG, right axis)
orlando.org
Commercial Real Estate
Source: CoStar; only includes existing industrial properties larger than 10,000 sq. ft.
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Industrial MarketOrlando MSA
Total Vacancy (left axis) Average Direct Asking Rate (NNN, right axis)
orlando.org (p) = preliminarySource: Orlando Regional Realtor Association
Residential Real Estate
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Home Sales vs. Median Sales PriceOrlando MSA
Sales (left axis) Median Sale Price (right axis)
2020 YTD (through August)Sales: 22,836 (-8.9%)
Median Sales Price: $260,275 (+8.8%)
11,805
5,2803,707 4,221 4,533
7,3229,222 9,806
12,03814,227 14,431
16,455 15,017
8,244
6,833
4,953
780 1,0331,972
4,684
6,341 6,309
8,436
9,027
4,634
12,427
9,957
5,207
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Housing Permits, Orlando MSAUnits Authorized
Single-Family Multi-Family
orlando.org
Residential Real Estate
(p) = preliminarySource: U.S. Census Bureau, YTD Through July 2020
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan-2075.0
100.0
125.0
150.0
175.0
200.0
225.0
January 2000 = 100
Orlando MSA Retail Index
orlando.org
Consumer Spending
Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research
May 2020 (12-Month Change) 140.6 (-70.3 pp)
Taxable sales data for various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's) are popularly used as
one indicator of regional economic activity. These data are derived from sales tax returns remitted to the state Department of Revenue
each month.
7.2 7.2 6.8 5.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.33.9
2.8 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1
1.0
13.3 13.8 14.3 16.014.5 15.3 16.7 17.8 19.0 20.5
22.7 23.6 25.5 26.7 27.9
7.2
12.7 13.5 13.9 12.011.7 12.2
13.013.7
14.415.0
15.415.9
16.216.9
17.2
5.7
2.9 3.0 2.52.3
1.71.7
1.71.9
2.22.4
2.72.9
3.13.3
3.4
1.4
8.0 8.4 7.67.0
6.56.7
6.56.9
7.38.0
8.59.2
9.811.1
11.9
4.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
$Billions
Taxable SalesOrlando MSA
Autos & Accessories Consumer Durables Tourism & Recreation Consumer Non-Durables Building Investment Business Investment
orlando.org
Consumer Spending
Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research
2019 (Y/Y Percent Change) Autos: $3.9b (-10.3%)
Durables: $1.0b (-19.1%)Tourism: $7.2b (-39.0%)
Non-Durables: $5.7b (-16.0%)Building Investment: $1.4b (+2.5%)Business Investment: $4.5b (-9.3%)
TOTAL: $23.7b (-22.3%)
orlando.org
Visitor Industry
Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
2020 Passengers YTD through June, (% of 2019 Total)Domestic: 12.3 M (28.5%)
International: 1.4 M (19.9%)TOTAL: 13.8 M (27.3%)
31.9 32.5 34.2 33.0 30.7 31.6 31.9 31.5 30.8 31.4 33.736.3 37.7
41.1 43.5
12.4
2.2 2.12.3 2.7
3.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.35.1
5.65.8
6.67.2
1.4
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Millions
Total PassengersOrlando International Airport
Domestic International
3,681 3,758 3,496
2,717
3,619 3,651 4,037 3,803 3,803
2,205
152 367 875
1,174
601 732
670
481
517 538
597 573 531
303
3 2
1 12
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
Thousands
Monthly Total PassengersOrlando International Airport
Domestic International
orlando.org
Visitor Industry - Monthly
Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
July Passengers, (YOY Change)Domestic: 1,173,630 (-68.8%) International: 12,424 (-98.3%)
TOTAL: 1,186,054 (-73.6%)
For More Information Contact:
Phoebe FlemingDirector of ResearchORLANDO ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP
