Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic...Our Insights. Your Story. © 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as...

Our Insights.

Your Story.

Property market chart pack

June 2019

Our Insights. Your Story. © 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 2

Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth

As at the end of May 2019

Residential Real Estate

$6.3 Trillion

Australian Superannuation

$2.8 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$1.9 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$980 Billion

10.2 millionNumber of dwellings

$1.82 trillionOutstanding mortgage

debt

418,496Total sales

p.a.

$253.7 billionGross value of

sales p.a.

50.5%Household

wealth held in

housing

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ASX

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story.

-2.0%

-1.7%

-1.4%

-0.2%

-1.8%

-0.7%

-3.3%

0.2%

-1.5%

-0.7%

-0.6%

0.8%

-2.4%

2.0%

-1.2%

-1.7%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Regional NSW

Regional Vic

Regional Qld

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional Tas

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

May-91 May-98 May-05 May-12 May-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

The quarterly rate of decline has lost momentum over recent months

3

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to May-19


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

May-84 May-91 May-98 May-05 May-12 May-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

The annual rate of decline in combined capital city values has increased and remains deeper than during the GFC

4

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to May-19

-10.7%

-9.9%

-2.3%

0.4%

-8.8%

3.4%

-8.6%

2.4%

-4.9%

0.9%

-2.2%

-0.7%

-9.4%

6.7%

-1.2%

-8.4%

-3.0%

-7.3%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Regional NSW

Regional Vic

Regional Qld

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional Tas

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National


-10.7%-9.9%

-2.3%

0.4%

-8.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth

3.4%

-8.6%

2.4%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Hobart Darwin Canberra

The annual change in dwelling values highlights broad-based weakening in housing market conditions

5

Source: CoreLogic


-0.7%

-1.7%

-2.5%

-3.7%

-4.4%

-5.5%

-6.5%

-7.4%

-9.0%

-11.5%

-3.4%

-3.7%

-4.7%

-5.1%

-6.3%

-7.0%

-7.7%

-8.8%

-10.4%

-11.8%

-0.5%

0.4%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.9%

-1.6%

-2.7%

-3.7%

-4.7%

-6.2%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

Regional markets Combined capital cities National

Premium dwelling values continue to record much larger value falls than those of more affordable housing

6

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles,

National as at May 2019

Annual change in dwelling values by decile,

May-19

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

Quarterly change Annual change


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%



Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -2.0% over the three months to May 2019 and they are

-10.7% lower over the past year. Sydney dwelling values are now -14.9% lower than their July 2017 peak.

7

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Melbourne have fallen by -1.7% over the 3 months to May 2019 and they are -9.9% lower over the

past year. Values in Melbourne have now fallen by -11.1% since they peaked in November 2017.

8

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Quarterly change Annual change Brisbane home values fell -1.4% over the three months to May 2019 and they were -2.3% lower

than a year ago. Brisbane dwelling values have now fallen by -2.4% since their peak in April 2018.

9

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Quarterly change Annual change Dwelling values in

Adelaide fell by -0.2% over the three months to May 2019 however, they are 0.4% higher over the past year. Adelaide dwelling values peaked in December 2018 and have since fallen by

-0.5%.

10

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide


-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%


Quarterly change Annual change Perth dwelling

values fell by -1.8%over the three months to May 2019 and they are -8.8% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Perth are now -19.2% lower than they were at their peak in June

2014.

11

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



Dwelling values in Hobart fell -0.7% over the 3 months to May 2019 however, they are 3.4% higher over the past year. Hobart dwelling values have now fallen by -1.3% since their peak in March

2019.

12

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

May-01 May-04 May-07 May-10 May-13 May-16 May-19


Darwin dwelling values fell by -3.3% over the three months to May 2019 and they are -8.6% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Darwin are currently -29.5% lower than their

historic peak.

13

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Canberra increased 0.2% over the three months to May 2019 and they are 2.4%higher over the past year. House values have increased by 3.4% over the year while unit values fell

-1.1%.

14

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra


20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

May 99 May 01 May 03 May 05 May 07 May 09 May 11 May 13 May 15 May 17 May 19

Monthly sales with six month moving average, National

-20.2%

-27.4%

-12.7%

-2.3%

-7.2%

-10.1%

0.4%

-10.2%

-17.9%

-14.5%

-16.6%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

Year on year change in settled sales

15

Transaction numbers remain lower than a year ago and well

below the decade average due to significant falls in settled transactions across Australia’s two largest cities

Source: CoreLogic

Note the sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision however, they are still subject to revision. Furthermore, sales volumes do not

account for off-the-plan purchases which upon completion are counted as sales at their contract date.

Decade average


-2.9%1.5%1.5%1.4%

2.5%4.9%

-5.2%2.5%

1.5%4.4%

1.4%0.2%0.5%

5.2%-0.3%

-0.1%1.8%

0.4%

-8% -4% 0% 4% 8%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT

Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

16

Rental growth continues to slow, largely due to falls in Sydney and slowing rental growth elsewhere

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling rents, National Annual change in dwelling rents to May-19

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%



3.5%3.7%

4.6%4.4%4.3%

5.3%6.0%

4.9%

4.7%4.7%

5.5%5.7%5.8%

5.4%7.0%

3.9%5.1%

4.1%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

17

With rental growth typically stronger than value growth, gross rental yields are rising fairly rapidly from their recent historic lows

Source: CoreLogic

Gross rental yields, National Gross rental yields as at May-19

3.5%

3.7%

3.9%

4.1%

4.3%

4.5%

4.7%

4.9%

5.1%



5044

5543

5728

6744

6850

7099

7056

69

4866

54

3329364249116636

49364893723969

324836

0 50 100 150

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

May-19

May-18

18

The time it takes to sell a property has trended lower over the

past two months as stock on market has begun to moderate

Source: CoreLogic

Median days on market Median days on market May-18 vs May-19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Combined capitals

Combined regionals


-6.7%-6.3%

-5.0%-5.3%

-6.9%-4.3%

-7.1%-3.0%

-5.4%-4.8%

-5.6%-6.2%

-8.2%-4.3%-4.4%

-6.0%-5.4%

-5.7%

-5.3%-4.0%-4.3%-4.9%-6.0%-3.3%-7.2%-2.2%

-4.0%-3.6%-5.3%-5.6%-7.7%-4.5%-3.0%

-4.7%-4.5%-4.6%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

May-19

May-18

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%


Combined capitals

Combined regionals

19

As the housing market weakens, vendors are having to offer

larger discounts in order to secure a sale

Source: CoreLogic

Median vendor discount Median vendor discount May-18 vs May-19

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story. 20

While fewer newly listed properties are coming up for sale currently, total listings generally remain higher than they were a year ago and elevated compared to recent years

Source: CoreLogic

Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 2 June 2019

Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 4,776 -25.5% 26,757 -0.2%

Melbourne 5,455 -24.6% 33,903 9.9%

Brisbane 3,516 -9.2% 21,167 7.1%

Adelaide 1,826 3.3% 8,808 7.8%

Perth 2,928 -17.2% 20,612 -3.2%

Hobart 363 9.7% 1,272 24.3%

Darwin 149 4.9% 1,436 2.1%

Canberra 471 -18.1% 2,319 16.5%

Combined capitals 19,484 -18.4% 116,274 4.5%

StateNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

NSW 8,763 -20.8% 52,693 5.7%

Vic 7,977 -21.2% 51,101 6.3%

Qld 8,100 -9.2% 63,384 1.6%

SA 2,505 2.2% 17,585 2.2%

WA 4,016 -17.9% 33,385 -4.2%

Tas 852 -13.1% 4,886 -4.2%

NT 211 7.7% 2,074 3.6%

ACT 481 -18.2% 2,418 17.2%

National 32,905 -16.1% 227,526 2.7%


Auction clearance rates have been stronger relative to late 2018 and have increased further since the Federal election

Source: CoreLogic

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19

Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nce r

ate

Weekly clearance rate, combined capital cities


20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Sep-88 Sep-98 Sep-08 Sep-18

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Sep-88 Sep-98 Sep-08 Sep-18

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Sep-83 Sep-88 Sep-93 Sep-98 Sep-03 Sep-08 Sep-13 Sep-18

1.5%2.2%

1.7%0.8%0.9%

1.2%-0.2%

1.9%1.6%

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

NSWVIC

QLDSA

WATASNT

ACTAUST

22

Housing demand: migration to Australia remains high, however the trend in population growth has dipped a little

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Quarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population

Rolling 4 qtr average


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Apr-89 Apr-94 Apr-99 Apr-04 Apr-09 Apr-14 Apr-19

Houses Units

23

Both house and unit approvals continue to trend lower, with larger falls in approved unit supply


Number of dwellings approved for construction, National

Rolling 6 mth average


5.5%

0.6%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%

Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17 Apr-19

Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

37.6%

21.4%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18

% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+

45.6%

15.8%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18

% of mortgages originated on interest-only terms

24

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA

Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace, due in large to much tighter credit conditions


$15.3

$12.4

$9.4

$4.5

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19

$ b

illio

n

Monthly value of new housing finance commitments, National

Owner occupier (ex refi)

Investor (ex refi) 26.8%

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19

New investor lending share of total new lending (ex refinances)

The slowdown in credit growth is mostly due to a

sharp reduction in investment lending;

down 26% over the past year and almost 52%

lower relative to the 2015 peak.

More recently, owner occupier lending has

dived sharply, down 15% over the past 12 months.

25



54%

39%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Mar

-03

Mar

-07

Mar

-11

Mar

-15

Mar

-19

NSW42%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Mar

-03

Mar

-07

Mar

-11

Mar

-15

Mar

-19

Vic37%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Mar

-03

Mar

-07

Mar

-11

Mar

-15

Mar

-19

Qld

39%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Mar

-03

Mar

-07

Mar

-11

Mar

-15

Mar

-19

SA44%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Mar

-03

Mar

-07

Mar

-11

Mar

-15

Mar

-19

WA

32%

23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Mar

-03

Mar

-07

Mar

-11

Mar

-15

Mar

-19

Tas

34.2%26.3%

18.9% 21.8% 17.8% 22.6% 17.9%25.0%

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances) as at March 2019

26


Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in each state and territory

Long run

average

Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances)


25.0%

30.2%

27.1%

21.9%

37.0%

20.8%

44.3%

22.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-03 Mar-07 Mar-11 Mar-15 Mar-19

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas

27


First home buyers have been a key source of housing demand recently due to improved affordability, less competition from investors, low mortgage rates and

incentivesFirst home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing

finance commitments (excluding refi)

First home buyers as a % of all

owner occupier housing finance

commitments (exc refi), Mar 19


5.00 7.00

10.38

17.00

9.62

5.76

7.79

5.374

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Standard variable mortgage rates over time

5.37

4.68

3.93

5.94

5.25

4.16

Variable; Standard

Variable; Discounted

3-year fixed

Variable; Standard


3-year fixed

Ow

ne

ro

ccu

pie

rIn

vest

or

Avg mortgage rate by product type,May 2019 (%)

0.14

0.21

-0.08

0.44

0.55

0.03

Variable; Standard


3-year fixed

Variable; Standard


3-year fixed

Ow

ne

ro

ccu

pie

rIn

vest

or

Basis point change in avg rate since recent trough to May 2019

4.68

5.25

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19

Investor mortgage rate premium

Owner Occupier Investor

Source: CoreLogic, RBA (based on discounted variable rates)

55

58

ba

sis

po

ints

28

Source: CoreLogic, RBA

Following the 25 basis point cut to interest rates this month they sit at their lowest levels since the 1960s


Disclaimer

29

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or

completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body

corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it

may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and

agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in

negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.

South Australian Data

This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the

accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will

constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying

upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box

1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The

Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au


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