Our Insights.Your Story.Property market chart pack – October 2019
218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth
As at the end of October 2019
Residential Real Estate
$6.6 TrillionAustralian Superannuation
$2.9 Trillion
Australian Listed Stocks
$2.0 Trillion
Commercial Real Estate
$993 Billion
10.4 millionNumber of dwellings
$1.80 trillionOutstanding
mortgage debt
375,245Total sales p.a.
51.5%Household wealth
held in housing
$247.7 billionGross value of
sales p.a.
Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ABS
318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Sep-91 Sep-98 Sep-05 Sep-12 Sep-19
Combined capitals Combined regionals
National dwelling values posted a 1.7% lift over the three months ending September, the highest quarterly rate of capital gain since Jun-17
Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Sept-19
Source: CoreLogic
418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Sep-84 Sep-91 Sep-98 Sep-05 Sep-12 Sep-19
Combined capitals Combined regionals
The annual rate of decline in housing values has moved through a trough as housing market conditions improve
Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Sept-19
Source: CoreLogic
518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-0.6%
-1.6%
-2.3%
-3.0%
-3.2%
-3.8%
-4.2%
-4.4%
-4.7%
-4.8%
-3.2%
-3.2%
-3.7%
-3.6%
-4.0%
-4.2%
-4.4%
-4.6%
-4.9%
-4.7%
-0.7%
0.3%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.9%
-1.4%
-2.3%
-3.1%
-4.0%
-4.9%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2%
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
Regional markets Combined capital cities National
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Quarterly change Annual change
The most expensive dwellings have recorded the largest decline over the past twelve months, but are also recording the most rapid recovery
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles, National as at Sept 2019
Annual change in dwelling values by decile, Sept-19
Source: CoreLogic
618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-3.9%
-2.1%-1.1%
-9.0%
-4.8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19
Annual change in dwelling values
Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Sydney
2.5%
-9.5%
1.3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19
Annual change in dwelling values
Hobart Darwin Canberra
Although values are still broadly trending lower on an annual basis, the annual rate of decline has levelled or started to ease across most cities
Source: CoreLogic
718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Sydney dwelling values increased by 1.7% in September and by 3.5% over the three months to September 2019. Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -4.8% over the past year and they are currently -11.9 % lower than their July 2017 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney
Source: CoreLogic
818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19
Quarterly changeAnnual change
Melbourne dwelling values increased by 1.7% in September and by 3.4% over the three months to September 2019. Melbourne dwelling values have fallen by -3.9% over the past year and they are currently -7.9% lower than their November 2017 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne
Source: CoreLogic
918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19
Quarterly changeAnnual change
Brisbane dwelling values increased by 0.1% in September, and they were 0.5% higher over the three months to September 2019. Brisbane dwelling values have fallen by -2.1% over the past year and they are currently -2.4% lower than their April 2018 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane
Source: CoreLogic
1018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19
Quarterly changeAnnual change
Adelaide dwelling values held firm in September and they were -0.6% lower over the three months to September 2019. Adelaide dwelling values have fallen by -1.1% over the past year and they are currently -1.6% lower than their December 2018 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide
Source: CoreLogic
1118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19
Quarterly changeAnnual change Perth dwelling values fell
by -0.8% in September and they were -1.9% lowerover the three months to September 2019. Perth dwelling values have fallen by -9.0% over the past year and they are currently -21.3% lower than their June 2014 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth
Source: CoreLogic
1218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19
Quarterly changeAnnual change
Hobart dwelling values fell by -0.4% in September and they were 0.4% higher over the three months to September 2019. Hobart dwelling values have increased by 2.5% over the past year and they are currently -0.7% lower than their March 2019 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart
Source: CoreLogic
1318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Sep-01 Sep-06 Sep-11 Sep-16
Quarterly changeAnnual change
Darwin dwelling values fell by -0.2% in September and they were -1.1% lower over the three months to September 2019. Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -9.5% over the past year and they are currently -30.8% lower than their May 2014 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin
Source: CoreLogic
1418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19
Quarterly changeAnnual change
Canberra dwelling values increased by 1.0% in September, and they were 1.4% higher over the three months to September 2019. Canberra dwelling values have increased by 1.3% over the past year and they are 0.3% higher than the previous April 19 peak in value.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra
Source: CoreLogic
1518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Sep 99 Sep 01 Sep 03 Sep 05 Sep 07 Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 13 Sep 15 Sep 17 Sep 19
Monthly sales with six month moving average, National
-12.1%-22.4%
-13.3%-5.1%-4.7%
-11.2%-5.7%
-16.5%
-15.6%-18.5%
-12.9%-5.4%-5.2%
-14.3%-9.1%
-14.0%-14.4%-14.1%
SydneyMelbourne
BrisbaneAdelaide
PerthHobartDarwin
Canberra
Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA
Regional WARegional TasRegional NT
Combined capitalsCombined regionals
National
Year on year change in settled sales
While the number of settled sales is much lower than a year ago, the recent trend is showing a pick-up in buyer activity
Source: CoreLogic
Decade average
1618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19
National rental rates fell for the third consecutive month in September however, the annual rate of rental growth still trending slightly higher
Annual change in rental rates - National Annual change in rental rates to Sept-19
Source: CoreLogic
1718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3.2%3.5%
4.6%4.5%
4.3%5.2%
6.0%4.7%
4.7%4.7%
5.4%5.7%
6.1%5.4%
6.9%
3.7%5.1%
4.0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
SydneyMelbourne
BrisbaneAdelaide
PerthHobartDarwin
Canberra
Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA
Regional WARegional TasRegional NT
Combined capitalsCombined regionals
National
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19
With dwelling values now trending higher and rents generally soft, rental yields are once again trending lower
Gross rental yields - National Gross rental yields as at Sept-19
Source: CoreLogic
1818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The median selling time has peaked across the combined capitals as market conditions improve, but was still trending higher across the regional markets over the September quarter
Median days on market Median days on market Sep-19 v Sep 18
Source: CoreLogic
1918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Vendor discounting rates are starting to ease as buyers lose some leverage
Median vendor discount Median vendor discount Sep-19 v Sep-18
Source: CoreLogic
2018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Capital cityNo of new
listings
N
e
w
No of total
listings
Sydney 5,668 22,048
Melbourne 6,123 29,425
Brisbane 3,617 19,602
Adelaide 1,744 7,810
Perth 2,582 17,237
Hobart 306 1,002
Darwin 112 1,396
Canberra 614 2,129
Combined
Capitals20,766 100,649
-19.1%
-18.4%
-18.0%
-9.4%
-16.3%
-20.6%
-24.5%
-7.3%
-17.6%
-13.4%
-8.8%
-4.7%
-2.0%
-11.5%
-9.1%
-1.3%
1.7%
-8.4%
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
National
Total Listings
New Listings-17.7%
-18.6%
-17.0%
-6.5%
-20.4%
-22.3%
-38.5%
-7.7%
-17.3%
-22.7%
-10.7%
-2.7%
0.4%
-13.1%
-2.0%
-3.9%
1.5%
-11.6%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined Capitals
Total Listings
New Listings
The volume of stock for sale remains lower than it was a year ago with new stock being listed for sale almost 20% lower nationally
Source: CoreLogic
Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 29 September 2019
12 month change: new and total properties advertised for sale
StateNo of new
listings
1
2
m
No of total
listings
NSW 9,503 44,811
Vic 8,709 44,903
Qld 8,369 59,560
SA 2,486 16,276
WA 3,768 28,994
Tas 788 4,087
NT 182 2,043
ACT 639 2,229
National 34,444 202,903
2118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19
Nu
mb
er
of
au
cti
on
s
Cle
ara
nc
e r
ate
Weekly clearance rates, combined capital cities
The second half of 2019 has seen clearance rates improve significantly, however the number of auctions being held remains low relative to recent years
Source: CoreLogic
2218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Housing demand: High migration rates are continuing to push the national population higher, with growth of 1.6% over the 12 months ending March 2019
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Aug-89 Aug-94 Aug-99 Aug-04 Aug-09 Aug-14 Aug-19
Houses Units
Number of dwellings approved for construction, National
Approved housing supply has been trending lower since late 2017, roughly in line with the peak in housing values
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
22.4%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19
% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+
45.6%
15.8%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19
% of mortgages originated on interest-only terms
4.7%
0.1%0%3%5%8%
10%13%15%
Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Aug-19
Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor
Owner occupier housing Investment housing
Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace with investment credit growth falling in July and August
Source: CoreLogic, RBA, APRA
2518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The value of lending to both investors and owner occupiers saw a significant increase
in July, with the value of owner
occupier loans up 5.3% and investor
loans up 4.7%, however investors
still comprise a lower than average share
of mortgage demand
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jul 03 Jul 05 Jul 07 Jul 09 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 17 Jul 19
First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing finance commitments
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas
27.5%
31.9%
26.3%
22.8%
36.6%
21.1%
43.9%
27.3%
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
First home buyers have been a key source of housing demand due to improved affordability, less competition from investors, low mortgage rates and incentives
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul 0
3
Jul 0
7
Jul 1
1
Jul 1
5
Jul 1
9
NSW
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul 0
3
Jul 0
7
Jul 1
1
Jul 1
5
Jul 1
9
Vic
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul 0
3
Jul 0
7
Jul 1
1
Jul 1
5
Jul 1
9
Qld
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul 0
3
Jul 0
7
Jul 1
1
Jul 1
5
Jul 1
9
SA
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul 0
3
Jul 0
7
Jul 1
1
Jul 1
5
Jul 1
9
WA
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul 0
3
Jul 0
7
Jul 1
1
Jul 1
5
Jul 1
9
Tas
31.9%25.8%
18.9%23.4%
15.9%21.4% 19.8%
24.9%
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances)
Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances)
Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in each state and territory and is yet to show a rebound
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
4.25
3.813.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19
Investor mortgage rate premiumOwner Occupie r Inve stor
55
5.00 7.00
10.38
17.00
9.62
5.76
7.79
4.944
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Sep-1959 Sep-1969 Sep-1979 Sep-1989 Sep-1999 Sep-2009 Sep-2019
Standard variable mortgage rates over time
4.94
4.25
3.41
5.52
4.84
3.81
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Ow
ner
occ
up
ier
Inve
sto
r
Avg mortgage rate by product type,Sept 2019 (%)
With the cash rate falling by 75 basis points between June and October 2019, mortgage rates are tracking at the lowest level since the 1950’s
Source: CoreLogic, RBA
2918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Disclaimer
In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.
Queensland DataBased on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relationto the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.South Australian DataThis information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.New South Wales DataContains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.Victorian DataThe State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian DataBased on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.Australian Capital Territory DataThe Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.Tasmanian DataThis product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; andb) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.
Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au
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