i-TransportandUATPConference20June2018
OURJOURNEYTOABETTERGAUTENG
Introduction• GautengRapidRailIntegratedNetwork(GRRIN)networkisbasedonthefollowing:• ITMP25Study&GautengExecutiveCouncilapproval;• KPMG’sReportonSocio-economicimpactofGautrainI;• FormspartoftheNDP &thefocusoninfrastructuredevelopment;and
• ThesuccessofGautrainIin:• makingpublictransportamode-of-choice• DevelopingitasaPPPproject;and• Lessonslearnedandapplyingthisknowledge.
InterventionsLandUseDevelopment1. Subsidisedhousingprovisionwithinurbancoreareas2. LandusedensificationinsupportofpublictransportStrategicPublicTransportNetwork3. Mainstreamingnon-motorisedtransport(NMT)4. Reinforcingpassengerrailnetworkasthebackboneofthesystem5. Extendingtheintegratedrapidandroad-basedPTnetworksFreightTransport6. StrengtheningfreighthubsRoadTransport7. Traveldemandmanagement8. Continuedprovincialwidemobility
GITMP25-YearIntegratedTransportInterventions
GautengCityRegionReinforcementthroughthePassengerRail
NetworkDescription• RailisakeyformgivingelementoftheCityRegion.• Railmostappropriateonhigh-densitycorridors.• Facilitate andsupporteffortsofPRASAandGMAtoDevelopRailNetworkandServicesintoamodernsystemmeetingtheneedsofGauteng’spassengers.
• Developmajormodaltransfernodesatstations(includingNMT)
AnewmodernGautengisinthemaking
• GautengPremier’sfirstStateoftheProvinceAddress– RadicallymodernisethewayGautengresidentsliveandwork
– Tenpillarsofradicaltransformation– Publictransportasaneconomicgrowthstimulant
GautengPremier’s10StrategicPillars
1. Radicaleconomictransformation2. Decisivespatialtransformation3. Acceleratedsocialtransformation4. TransformationoftheStateandgovernance5. Modernisationoftheeconomy6. Modernisationofthepublicserviceandthestate7. Modernisationofhumansettlementsandurbandevelopment8. Modernisationofpublictransport(ofwhichrailisamode)
andotherinfrastructure9. Re-industrialisingGautengasourcountry’seconomichub10. TakingaleadinAfrica’snewindustrialrevolution
• TheGRRINprojectisakeypartofthe8th pillartherebyhelpingtheeconomyoftheprovinceandthecountry.
PublicPrivatePartnership
• GautrainisaPPPProject• LeadingtoaConcessionAgreement• PPPProjectsonNationalandProvinciallevelsareregulatedbySouthAfricanPublicFinanceManagementActRegulations(TR16)
GautrainLessonslearnt• GreenfieldsprojectriskvsBrownfieldsextension• Theoreticalvsactualdata• PPPStructurecoulddowithsomeamendment• GMAhasexcellentdataonridership,operations,CapexandOpexfromGautrain1
• LowerIRR’sshouldbeapplicableinfuture• TheTransportDemandModellingshouldbeimproved• Socioeconomicimpactsaresignificant• Publictransportisthecatalystforeconomicchange
GautrainKeySuccessFactors1. Politicalleadershipandwill2. BuildonGautrainlessonslearned– what
workedandwhatdidn’t3. StickwithPPPbuttweakthemodel4. Partnerwiththebestwecan5. Leadtheeconomicdevelopmentandpublic
transportintegrationasaProvince6. FollowPFMA7. Continueeconomicandsocioeconomic
development
GautrainSocioeconomicdevelopment(Construction)
Gautrain’soperationsSocio-economicdevelopmentsuccess
Source:GMASEDreport2013/14financialyear
Gautrain’soperationsSocio-economicdevelopmentsuccess
Source:GMASEDreport2013/14financialyear
Problemstatement
GautengSDFBasedApproachvs.CoreTransitIntervention(2037)
2037Socio-economicDensityLowIncomewithExistingRailand
GRRINLowIncomePopulationDensity
JobDensity
2037Socio-economicDensityMiddleIncomewithExistingRailand
GRRINMiddleIncomePopulationDensity
JobDensity
GautengPopulationForecast2014 2025 2037
Population(Gauteng) 13000000 16800000 19100000
+3,8million +6,1million
FormalJobs(Gauteng) 4600000 6700000 8500000
+2,1m(+45%)
+3,9m(+84%)
FormalJobsCompoundedAnnual GrowthRate% - 3.5% 2.0%
AM PeakHourPerson Trips(Gauteng-allmodes) 2000000 2700000 3200000
+700000(+35%)
+1200000(+60 %)
CurrentPeakHourRoadTrafficAveragespeed43km/hr• Assume• Allroadimprovements
currentlyplannedarebuilt
• 2037Averagekeyroadnetworkspeed reducesto23km/h(peakandcontra-peakdirections)spreadover3hours
• 10km/hinpeakhourifnopeakspreading
• LikecurrentLagosorNairobi.
IfwedonothingTravelspeedswithoutGRRIN2037
GAUTENGON THE MOVE
19
36 VariousrouteoptionsconsideredAlignment length (km),
Property Impact,
Construction cost,
Environmental and heritage issues
Constructability in terms of accommodation of traffic, undermining, utilities and services and expected social impact.
ConnectivityChallengesinCOJ:• Significantdelayisexperiencedatthefreewaycrossings
• *Source:GoogleMaps(AMPeakHourTraffic)
KeyConnectivityChallenges
IntegratedPublicTransportSystemRapidRail/GautrainSpeedprofile: 160km/hOptimaldistance• 62– 75 kmPassengerperhour• 7,500– 20,000
GRRINIntegrationwithGautrainbus,GautrainTaxi,Taxi,BRTinCoT,EMMandCoJaspartoffeederanddistributionbusnetwork.
Harambee BRT AREYENGREAVAYA
GautrainFeederTaxi&Bus
• TheproposedPRASA,BRTandRapidRailnetworksarecomplementaryintheirservices
CombinedPRASA.BRT&GRRINnetwork
LegendBRTPRASAGRRINGRRINFDBS
GRRINEconomicsFindingsPhase1&2SummaryCBAresults– comparativeBCRanalysis>1positive
Comparative economic impacts for each additional stage of the future GRRIN programmeassuming operations start in 2026
(Present value, real prices, 2016, Rmillion, 8% discount rate)
Phase 1a Phase 2Sandton- Little Falls Soweto to Roodepoort
to Little Falls
Economic net present value (ENPV) R13,949 R18,615
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 2.0 2.6
EIRR 13.8 16.6
• Ofthefiveroutesconsidered,theSoweto-Roodepoort-LittleFallsroutedeliversbyfarthehighestnetbenefitwithaneconomicnetpresentvalue(ENPV)of~R18.6bnandaneconomicinternalrateofreturn(EIRR)of16.6%.
• Howeverthisroutedoeshaverelativelyhighcapitalinvestmentrequirement(duetoextensivetunnellingworkrequired),itdeliversenormoususerbenefits- chieflyintheformoftraveltimesavingsforGautrainusers.
SEDandBBBEE• Investigationdone• Gautrainlessonslearnttakenintoaccount•
SEDtargetsforPhase1Economic DevelopmentAchievements
DevelopmentPeriod OperationalPeriod
Target Value Target Value
LocalContent 65% R16 8b 80% R6,1B
JobCreation 28997 7729
SkillsDevelopment 1,5% R388 million 6% R29 million
PreferentialProcurement:BlackOwnedSpend
15% R2525 million 40% R2455million
EnterpriseDevelopment 0,1% R25,9million 0,1% R5,1million
SupplierDevelopment 0,2% R51,8million 0,2% R10,2million
TravelTimeSavingswhenGRRINisImplemented
Gautrain GRRIN• Soweto– Sandton
– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 86mins
• Soweto– Randburg– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 44mins
• Cosmo– Sandton– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 46mins
• Fourways– Sandton– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 9mins
SourceGMAData2015
GautrainFundingStructure• ThethreespheresofGovernment≈88%• NationalDoRA:48.5%• ProvincialMTEF:21.1%• ProvincialBorrowings:18.6%
• RemainderofCAPEX/Infrastructurefundedthroughequityanddebt≈12%
– Long-termDebt:10%– Equity:2%
• ShortfallofPatronageGuaranteecoveredbyProvincialMTEFfunding
DoRA,48,50%
MTEF;21,10%
ProvincialBorrowing;18,60%
LTDebt;10%
Equity;2%
GAUTRAINIFUNDINGSPLIT
AlternativeFundingAnalysis• AdditionalsourcesofAlternativefundingwereidentified
pertheDBSAreport(“GautengRapidRailNetworkExtension(GRRNE)FundingOptionsAnalysis”)
• Thepotentialcategoriesof“Alternative”revenue/fundingareasfollows:– TaxIncrementFinancing(TIR)(New&existingstations)– SpecialRatingAreas(SRA)(New&existingstations)– VehicleLicenseFee– AirportTax– SalesTax- VAT– PropertyAssetandManagementAgency(PropertyDevelopment)– StationAuctioning
AlternativeFundingAnalysis• Theaccompanyingchartsquantifytheimpactof‘Alternative’fundingsourceson
theprojectfunding/financingsplit
ProvincialMTEF;27%
NationalDoRA;40%
PrivateSector;33%
DEFAULTFUNDINGINFRASTRUCTURESPLIT
ProvincialMTEF;12%
NationalDoRA;17%
PrivateSector;33%
AlternativeFunding;38%
ALTERNATIVEFUNDINGINFRASTRUCTURESPLIT
AlternativeFundingAnalysis
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AlternativeFunding- DBSAReport
StationAuctioning
PAMA(Propertydevelopment)
SalesTax
Airport
CarLicense(AffectedMunics)
SRA
TIF
ThankYou
WilliamDachsCOOGMA